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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tackling the curse of dimensionality in fractional and tempered fractional PDEs with physics-informed neural networks

Fractional and tempered fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) are effective models of long-range interactions, anomalous diffusion, and non-local effects. Traditional numerical methods for these problems are mesh-based, thus struggling with the curse of dimensionality (CoD). Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a promising solution due to their universal approximation, generalization ability, and mesh-free training. In principle, Monte Carlo fractional PINN (MC-fPINN) estimates fractional derivatives using Monte Carlo methods and thus could lift CoD. However, this may cause significant variance and errors, hence affecting convergence; in addition, MC-fPINN is sensitive to hyperparameters. In general, numerical methods and specifically PINNs for tempered fractional PDEs are under-developed. Herein, we extend MC-fPINN to tempered fractional PDEs to address these issues, resulting in the Monte Carlo tempered fractional PINN (MC-tfPINN). To reduce possible high variance and errors from Monte Carlo sampling, we replace the one-dimensional (1D) Monte Carlo with 1D Gaussian quadrature, applicable to both MC-fPINN and MC-tfPINN. We validate our methods on various forward and inverse problems of fractional and tempered fractional PDEs, scaling up to 100,000 dimensions. Our improved MC-fPINN/MC-tfPINN using quadrature consistently outperforms the original versions in accuracy and convergence speed in very high dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimate of background baseline and upper limit on the chiral magnetic effect in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

For the search of the chiral magnetic effect (CME), STAR previously presented the results from isobar collisions ($^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru, $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr) obtained through a blind analysis. The ratio of results in Ru+Ru to Zr+Zr collisions for the CME-sensitive charge-dependent azimuthal correlator (Δ⁢𝛾), normalized by elliptic anisotropy (𝑣2), was observed to be close to but systematically larger than the inverse multiplicity ratio. The background baseline for the isobar ratio, 𝑌= (Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Ru /(Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Zr , is naively expected to be (1/𝑁) Ru /(1/𝑁) Zr ; however, genuine two- and three-particle correlations are expected to alter it. We estimate the contributions to 𝑌 from those correlations, utilizing both the isobar data and hijing simulations. After including those contributions, we arrive at a final background baseline for 𝑌, which is consistent with the isobar data. Here, we extract an upper limit for the CME fraction in the Δ⁢𝛾 measurement of approximately 10% at a 95% confidence level on in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV, with an expected 15% difference in their squared magnetic fields.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Co-Active Subspace Methods for the Joint Analysis of Adjacent Computer Models

Active subspace (AS) methods are a valuable tool for understanding the relationship between the inputs and outputs of a Physics simulation. In this article, an elegant generalization of the traditional ASM is developed to assess the co-activity of two computer models. This generalization, which we refer to as a Co-Active Subspace (Co-AS) Method, allows for the joint analysis of two or more computer models allowing for thorough exploration of the alignment (or non-alignment) of the respective gradient spaces. We define co-active directions, co-sensitivity indices, and a scalar “concordance” metric (and complementary “discordance” pseudo-metric) and we demonstrate that these are powerful tools for understanding the behavior of a class of computer models, especially when used to supplement traditional AS analysis. Details for efficient estimation of the Co-AS and an accompanying R package (concordance) are provided. Practical application is demonstrated through analyzing a set of simulated rate stick experiments for PBX 9501, a high explosive, offering insights into complex model dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Continuous Ultrasound-Assisted Leaching Process for Rare Earth Element Extraction: Environmental and Economic Assessment

Rare earth elements (REEs) make up integral components in personal electronics, healthcare instrumentation, and modern energy technologies. REE leaching with organic acids is an environmentally friendly alternative to traditional extraction methods. Our previous study demonstrated that batch ultrasound-assisted organic acid leaching of REEs can significantly decrease environmental impacts compared to traditional bioleaching. The batch method is limited to small volumes and is unsuitable for industrial implementation. This study proposes a novel approach to increase reaction volume using a continuous ultrasound-assisted organic acid leaching method. Laboratory experiments showed that continuous ultrasound-assisted leaching increased the leaching rate (µg/h) 11.3–24.5 times compared to our previously reported batch method. Techno-economic analysis estimates the cost of the continuous approach using commercially purchased organic acids is $\$$9465/kg of extracted REEs and $\$$4325/kg of extracted REEs, using gluconic acid and citric acid, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that substituting commercially purchased organic acids with microbially produced biolixiviant can reduce the process cost by approximately 99% while minimally increasing energy consumption. Environmental assessment shows that most of the emissions stemmed from the energy required to power the ultrasound reactor. We concluded that increased leaching capacity using a continuous ultrasound-assisted approach is feasible, but process modifications are needed to reduce the environmental impact.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of the radiation budget during MOSAiC based on ground-based and satellite remote sensing observations

An accurate representation of the radiation budget is essential for investigating the impact of clouds on the climate system, especially in the Arctic, an environment highly sensitive to complex and rapid environmental changes. In this study, we analyse a unique dataset of observations from the central Arctic made during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in conjunction with state-of-the-art satellite products from CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) to investigate the radiative effect of clouds and radiative closure at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). We perform a series of radiative transfer simulations using derived cloud macro- and microphysical properties as inputs to the simulations for the entire MOSAiC period, comparing our results to collocated satellite products and ice-floe observations. The radiative closure biases were generally within the instrumental uncertainty, indicating that the simulations are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the radiation budget during MOSAiC. Comparisons of the simulated radiation budget relative to CERES show similar values in the terrestrial flux but relatively large differences in the solar flux, which are attributed to a lower surface albedo and a possible underestimation of atmospheric opacity by CERES. While the simulation results were consistent with the observations, more detailed analyses reveal an overestimation of simulated cloud opacity for cases involving geometrically thick ice clouds. In the annual mean, we found that, during the MOSAiC expedition, the presence of clouds leads to a loss of 5.2 W m −2 of the atmosphere–surface system to space, while the surface gains 25.0 W m −2 and the atmosphere is cooled by 30.2 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying recharge sources and their impacts on a North Central New Mexico shallow aquifer using unsupervised machine learning

In this article, shallow aquifers are important but highly variable resources in arid to semi-arid regions. Limited shallow aquifer volume results in high sensitivity to recharge fluctuations, which can impact the local fauna and flora, and transport of contaminants in the aquifer or vadose zone. Aquifer response to external forcing (e.g., precipitation) is usually solved by estimating aquifer parameters and running physics-based models to match known fluctuations of hydraulic head. However, this technique is time and computationally expensive. Furthermore, high aquifer complexity decreases precision in physics-based models. Alternatively supervised machine learning is used to predict aquifer dynamics. However, these techniques rely on input data and struggle to interpret aquifer response for missing sources (i.e., snowpack data). To counter these problems, we propose an unsupervised machine learning technique (NMFk) to estimate the impact of different sources on aquifer recharge. NMFk is used to understand the influence of external forcing on shallow aquifer recharge in the Pajarito Plateau (Los Alamos, NM, USA). The results show how NMFk can be used to reduce the data dimension in a complex field dataset to three recharge signals that cause fluctuations within the field data. Here, the source signals are interpreted as rainfall, snowmelt, and a delayed aquifer response to the previous two signals. These results evidence how heterogeneous aquifers delimited by canyons incised into the Pajarito Plateau respond in similar ways to the source signals identified by NMFk. Furthermore, results show the importance of the local geology where faults act as sinks, and anthropogenic disturbances can facilitate infiltration amplifying the interpreted signal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytical model for balling defects in laser melting using rivulet theory and solidification

In laser welding and additive manufacturing communities, the balling (humping) defect is primarily attributed to the Plateau–Rayleigh fluid instability (PRI) with a few authors suggesting fluid jetting and volume conservation as alternative mechanisms. As analytical descriptions of these mechanisms are unavailable, combining them into a single formalism is unfeasible. We present a new model of PRI with higher accuracy, accounting for competition with solidification, to compare the expected behavior with known experimental trends when fluid jetting is neglected. We adapt a rivulet instability model from fluid physics to account for the stabilizing effects of the substrate, which the traditional cylindrical-jet geometry does not account for and estimate the instability growth rate. Our model yields a continuous transition from non-balling to balling hitherto lacking in current literature and predicts instability growth at higher wavelengths with strong sensitivity to the solidification front curvature. While the fluid surface is most unstable for shallow melt pools, the absolute magnitude of balling relevant to printing defects scales with melt pool depth and has a maximum for a given melt pool geometry. Synchrotron-based x-ray radiography of thin samples indicates that PRI growth rates and solidification can be comparable in magnitude and thus compete, as we find in this work. We predict that deviations between model predictions and our experimental results demonstrate the importance of fluid flows and heat transport in the balling process. Our experiments further demonstrate at least one mechanism by which the melt pool length and the balling wavelength are not equivalent, as commonly claimed.

Taylor, Z. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); SL↗
DOE OSTI2026

FIREFLY: heat load and particle exhaust approximations for rapid evaluation of divertor designs

The divertor in a magnetic confinement fusion reactor is an essential component for power dissipation and particle removal. The FIREFLY package for rapid evaluation of divertor designs is presented as an extension of the FLARE code for field line reconstruction from a flux tube mesh. First, divertor loads are approximated with a simplified heat transport model. Neutralized particles are then sampled from the resulting load distribution, and the EIRENE code is used to track molecules and atoms in a plasma background while accounting for dissociation, charge exchange and ionization. Particles are removed on pumping surfaces in order to estimate the exhaust efficiency for a given divertor geometry. Optimization of the divertor geometry for more efficient particle exhaust is explored by using W7-X as an example, and the sensitivity to model parameters for the plasma background in the proxy calculations is evaluated.

mesh generation, magnetic field lines, scrape-off ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polaris-PARCS Sensitivity Study on LWR Fuel Cycles: Polaris Input Options

This study is the first of a multi-phase effort to assess the sensitivity of light-water reactor (LWR) core-level prediction biases to changes in lattice-level calculation parameters. Prediction bias is the measured-to-predicted difference in a core-level quantity of interest (QOI) which can be estimated by comparing the simulation results with the plant-measured data for key nuclear parameters. The LWR two-step neutronics codes employed herein are the SCALE–Polaris lattice physics code (v6.3.1) and the Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) nodal diffusion simulator (v3.4.2), both funded and used for confirmatory analysis to support licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Polaris–PARCS is used to model Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 and Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3. This study focuses on the impact of changes to Polaris input options such as scattering treatment or quadrature settings and how these input options induce changes in core-level quantities of interest (QOIs)bias. The report documents multiple bias assessments for different modeling choices and compares the bias magnitude to the QOI measurement uncertainties. Future companion reports will investigate the sensitivity of core-level LWR prediction bias to Polaris input options and Polaris-computed QOIs such as few-group assembly-homogenized cross sections to gain an understanding of the key drivers of prediction bias at lattice and core levels for application of a two-step LWR neutronics procedure in a licensing scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Virtual tower measurements during the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

Dual-Doppler lidar measurements were made during the American WAKE ExperimeNt to provide height-resolved measurements of wind speed and direction at multiple locations immediately south of the leading row turbines in the King Plains wind farm in Oklahoma. These so-called virtual tower measurements were performed to characterize the inflow into the wind farm and to assess possible upwind blockage effects due to the collective action of the wind farm. The campaign was conducted from 12 November 2022 to 17 October 2023, during which time 14 unique virtual tower locations were sampled with heights ranging from 240 to 490 m AGL. The wind retrieval algorithm provided estimates of the horizontal winds and their uncertainties with a vertical resolution of about 10 m, while also accounting for the tilt of the lidar platform. The virtual tower results are compared to collocated lidar wind profiling data at the A1 site, which was located roughly 2.4 rotor diameters south of the nearest turbine. The wind speed difference between the wind profiler and the virtual tower was found to be quite sensitive to atmospheric stability and wind direction below 250 m AGL. The largest differences were observed for inflow under stable conditions, where the profiler wind speeds were observed to be about 22% lower than the virtual tower near hub height. These results suggest that there are persistent horizontal gradients in the flow upwind of the wind farm which result in biased estimates using standard ground-based lidar wind profiling methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic Analysis of Condition-Monitoring-Based Predictive Maintenance in Power Plants under Market Elasticity

Condition-monitoring-based predictive maintenance can increase the power plant availability by preventing forced outages. However, the actual on-stream time depends on market elasticity and dynamics, which are affected by cost and penetration of other power generation technologies. This paper develops a systematic approach for the economic analysis of investment in condition monitoring technologies with due consideration of market elasticity. Focus is on corrosion monitoring in coal-fired power plants (CFFPs) since corrosion in high-temperature coal-fired boilers is a leading cause of equipment failure. Investment in sensor networks for measuring corrosion and operating conditions like metal temperature and concentrations of O 2 and SO 2 is investigated. The unscented Kalman filter is used to estimate corrosion in the waterwall section of the boiler under multiple sensor networks. Electricity produced by CFPPs in the future in the U.S. due to changes in availability under market elasticity is studied. Sensitivity of the incremental net present value to factors like the number, type, and cost of sensors is analyzed.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a 𝜈 𝜇 CC 1𝜇 + 1p exc. cross section measurement at the NOvA Near Detector

In the recent past, the NOvA near detector has been used to perform several neutrino-matter cross section measurements as a function of final state muon or electron kinematics around $E_\nu = 2$ GeV. In this talk, I show how the muon neutrino charged-current measurement in particular can be extended into a more exclusive region of phase space in order to probe nuclear effects. This can be done by selecting a final state with 1$\mu$, 1 proton, and nothing else, and measuring the cross section in terms of transverse kinematic imbalance (TKI) variables. The measurement I describe here would also be sensitive to quasi-elastic (QEL), two-particle two-hole (2p2h), and resonant (RES) neutrino interactions. Currently, I am optimizing the selection cuts for this analysis and developing a proton momentum estimator, which is necessary for reconstructing the TKI variables.

Weber, Colin [Minnesota U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chasing Gamma-Ray Signals from Binary Neutron Star Coalescences with the Cherenkov Telescope Array: Prospects and Observing Strategies

The detection of gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary neutron star (BNS) merger by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (GW170817), together with its electromagnetic counterpart, the short gamma-ray burst GRB 170817A, heralded the birth of multimessenger astronomy. The detection of TeV emission from GRBs motivates follow-up observations with the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO), which is ideal for detecting such signals due to its unprecedented sensitivity, rapid response, and wide-field survey capabilities. The aim of this work is to evaluate GeV–TeV GW follow-up strategies for CTAO using a multistep simulation pipeline and to estimate the expected rate of joint GW–GRB detections during observing run O5. Using a simulated sample of BNS systems with corresponding GW detections, gamma-ray emission is simulated through phenomenological prescriptions based on the observed population of short GRBs, including off-axis jet scenarios. CTAO observations are simulated to account for instrument response, sky tiling strategies, integration times, and varying observing conditions. Strategies with variable and constant integration times are investigated. We find that, via an optimized follow-up strategy, about 5% of simulated GW-associated short GRBs produce GeV–TeV radiation detectable by CTAO. Detectability is strongly influenced by the jet opening angle and viewing angle, suggesting that even rough estimates of the viewing angle in GW alerts could enhance targeting. This framework motivates future follow-ups of GW-detectable events, including neutron star–black hole mergers, and further supports the development of advanced strategies incorporating galaxy distributions and synergies with future detectors such as the Einstein Telescope.

Abe, S. [University of Tokyo] (ORCID:0000000172503↗