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DOE OSTI2025

Divergent evolution of slip banding in CrCoNi alloys

Abstract Metallic materials under high stress often exhibit deformation localization, manifesting as slip banding. Over seven decades ago, Frank and Read introduced the well-known model of dislocation multiplication at a source, explaining slip band formation. Here, we reveal two distinct types of slip bands (confined and extended) in compressed CrCoNi alloys through multi-scale testing and modeling from microscopic to atomic scales. The confined slip band, characterized by a thin glide zone, arises from the conventional process of repetitive full dislocation emissions at Frank–Read source. Contrary to the classical model, the extended band stems from slip-induced deactivation of dislocation sources, followed by consequent generation of new sources on adjacent planes, leading to rapid band thickening. Our findings provide insights into atomic-scale collective dislocation motion and microscopic deformation instability in advanced structural materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

First experimental confirmation of island SOL geometry effects in a high radiation regime on W7-X

Abstract This work characterizes the detachment behavior and radiation characteristics of the lowiota configuration in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. The island scrape-off layer (SOL) of thelow iota has a poloidal mode number of 6 islands surrounding the last closed flux surface (LCFS).The island geometry of the low iota configuration is significantly different to that of the standardmagnetic field configuration, whose detachment characteristics have already been described in previouswork[2, 3, 4]. Experimental results show that the radiation pattern in the low iota configurationis starkly different to that of the standard magnetic field configuration, with radiation concentratedat the island SOL O-points, rather than the X-points. Additionally, this O-point localized radiationpattern is associated with unstable detachment, with both radiation oscillations in experiments and thelack of a self-consistent plasma solution at high radiated power fraction in EMC3-Eirene simulations.EMC3-Eirene simulations are used to understand the radiation distribution. It was found that the O-point localized radiation arises first from local impurity accumulation near the parallel flow stagnation,which is located close to the geometrical center of the island (”O-point”). The local cooling in thisregion leads to plasma condensation in the islands in closest magnetic connection to the divertor targetplates. The heat source to this region of the island, which is thermally isolated from the upstream heatsource in terms of parallel transport, must arise via perpendicular heat transport. This heat source isexpected to be large for the low iota configuration due to its very small internal island field line pitch.This work highlights the importance (complementary to previous work, e. g. [5, 6]) of the internalisland field line pitch not only on the radiation pattern, but also the detachment performance of theisland divertor.

Winters, Victoria (ORCID:0000000181087774)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Traceable random numbers from a non-local quantum advantage

The unpredictability of random numbers is fundamental to both digital security and applications that fairly distribute resources. However, existing random number generators have limitations—the generation processes cannot be fully traced, audited and certified to be unpredictable. The algorithmic steps used in pseudorandom number generators are auditable, but they cannot guarantee that their outputs were a priori unpredictable given knowledge of the initial seed. Device-independent quantum random number generators can ensure that the source of randomness was unknown beforehand, but the steps used to extract the randomness are vulnerable to tampering. Here we demonstrate a fully traceable random number generation protocol based on device-independent techniques. Our protocol extracts randomness from unpredictable non-local quantum correlations, and uses distributed intertwined hash chains to cryptographically trace and verify the extraction process. This protocol forms the basis for a public traceable and certifiable quantum randomness beacon that we have launched. Over the first 40 days of operation, we completed the protocol 7,434 out of 7,454 attempts—a success rate of 99.7%. Each time the protocol succeeded, the beacon emitted a pulse of 512 bits of traceable randomness. The bits are certified to be uniform with error multiplied by actual success probability bounded by 2−64. Further, the generation of certifiable and traceable randomness represents a public service that operates with an entanglement-derived advantage over comparable classical approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flow dynamics and heat transfer in simplified battery energy storage systems with heated battery modules

Large-scale energy storage systems (ESSs) composed of batteries show promise in addressing current energy challenges, but dissipation of generated heat is important. Here, this paper focuses on buoyant convective flows in simplified ESS battery racks. Natural convection is not generally the primary cooling strategy but can be important in abnormal scenarios where there is module overheat or potentially thermal runaway. We use computational fluid dynamics to investigate the flow dynamics and heat transfer mechanisms in a simplified parameterized rack design. Despite its simplicity, this configuration produces many of the relevant features expected in real ESSs without details of module geometry or hardware, allowing broad conclusions independent of manufacture-specific designs. We start by providing visualizations of the flowfield and measurements of entrainment, heat flux, and pressure. To characterize the dependence on the system parameters, we develop an integral-scale analysis of the average temperature equation to highlight the dominant source terms. We use results from this analysis to derive a steady network model composed of simple algebraic expressions to provide first-order predictions of entrainment through the rack. The network model leads to a linear scaling of the Reynolds number based on convective mass flux with respect to the Grashof number based on the heat source. We deduce empirical relationships that relate the heat exchanged between modules using a surface-averaged Nusselt number as a function of the local Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers. Lastly, we investigate how space between the modules and rack in the spanwise direction creates flow bypass, resulting in different flow pathways.

Battery thermal management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Baseline 2022

The Electricity Baseline (2022) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2022" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569193. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).

Electricity; LCA; data inventory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Baseline 2021

The Electricity Baseline (2021) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2021" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569576. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).

Electricity; LCA; LCI; Life Cycle↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Baseline 2020

The Electricity Baseline (2020) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2020" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569605. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).

Electricity; LCA; LCI; data inventory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on light QCD and CP-violating axions from the death line of rotation-powered pulsars

For axions that couple to nucleons, the presence of dense nuclear matter can displace the axion from its vacuum minimum, sourcing large field gradients around neutron stars (and, more generally, compact objects). These gradients, which we refer to as axion hair, couple to the local background magnetic field, inducing a large voltage drop near the surface of the star; here, we demonstrate that the presence of axion hair decouples local near-field particle acceleration in the open magnetic field line bundle from the rotational frequency of the pulsar itself. This is significant as the non-observation of old slowly-rotating pulsars is attributed to the fact the rotationally-induced electric fields are not strong enough to sustain $e^\pm$ pair production. In this work, we review the evidence for the existence for `pulsar death', i.e. the threshold at which $e^\pm$ pair production (and thus, by association, coherent radio emission) ceases, and demonstrate using both semi-analytics and particle-in-cell simulations that the existence of axion hair can dramatically extend pulsar lifetimes. We show that the non-observation of extremely old, slowly rotating, pulsars allows for a new probe of light QCD and CP-violating axions. We also demonstrate how the observation of emission from both poles of pulsars with nearly orthogonal rotational and magnetic axes, as seen e.g. in PSR J1906+0746, can be used to set competitive limits on CP-violating axion-nucleon interactions.

Witte, Samuel J. [Oxford U., Theor. Phys.; DESY; H↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heavy metal imprints in Antarctic snow from research and tourism

Antarctica, long regarded as one of the last pristine environments on Earth, is increasingly affected by human activity. As tourism surges and scientific operations expand, air pollution from local emissions is raising new environmental concerns. Here, in this study, we analyze surface snow samples collected along a ~2,000 km transect, from the South Shetland Islands (62°S) to the Ellsworth Mountains (79°S), to map the geochemical fingerprints of aerosol deposition. We identify distinct spatial patterns shaped by crustal, marine, biogenic, and anthropogenic sources. Notably, we detect heavy metal imprints in the snow chemistry of the northern Antarctic Peninsula, where major research stations are concentrated and marine tourism traffic is most intense. Our findings shed light on the extent of the impacts from energy-intensive local activities in Antarctica, underscoring the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and sustainable management strategies in this fragile region.

Cordero, Raúl R. [Univ. of Groningen, Leeuwarden (↗

DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multimodal hard X-ray nanoprobe techniques for operando investigations of photovoltaic devices

Compared with conventional laboratory-scale X-ray techniques, synchrotron based X-rays with higher brilliance and higher coherence allow for the investigation of various material properties with high spatial resolution. The microscopic behaviours of materials can be examined using the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe beamline (I14) at Diamond Light Source, which provides a 50 nm focused beam and has been successfully employed to identify nanoscale optoelectronic features in energy-harvesting materials such as halide perovskites that exhibit local heterogeneity. We have developed X-ray beam-induced current (XBIC) measurement capability at I14 to address the growing demand for operando analysis in energy-harvesting research. Here, we demonstrate that X-ray fluorescence (XRF)/XBIC multimodal measurements are feasible at I14 and apply these newly implemented techniques to study perovskite solar cells with various additive concentrations to understand the effect of the additive on nanoscale optoelectronic performance. This expanded operando characterization capability offers the possibility of monitoring nanometre-scale compositional variations and corresponding optoelectronic features of actual solar cell configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photometric redshifts probability density estimation from recurrent neural networks in the DECam local volume exploration survey data release 2

Photometric wide-field surveys are imaging the sky in unprecedented detail. These surveys face a significant challenge in efficiently estimating galactic photometric redshifts while accurately quantifying associated uncertainties. In this work, we address this challenge by exploring the estimation of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for the photometric redshifts of galaxies across a vast area of 17,000 square degrees, encompassing objects with a median 5 σ point-source depth of g = 24.3, r = 23 . 9 , i = 23.5, and z = 22.8 mag. Our approach uses deep learning, specifically integrating a Recurrent Neural Network architecture with a Mixture Density Network, to leverage magnitudes and colors as input features for constructing photometric redshift PDFs across the whole DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey sky footprint. Subsequently, we rigorously evaluate the reliability and robustness of our estimation methodology, gauging its performance against other well-established machine learning methods to ensure the quality of our redshift estimations. Our best results constrain photometric redshifts with the bias of − 0 . 0013 , a scatter of 0.0293, and an outlier fraction of 5.1%. These point estimates are accompanied by well-calibrated PDFs evaluated using diagnostic tools such as Probability Integral Transform and Odds distribution. We also address the problem of the accessibility of PDFs in terms of disk space storage and the time demand required to generate their corresponding parameters.We present a novel Autoencoder model that reduces the size of PDF parameter arrays to one-sixth of their original length, significantly decreasing the time required for PDF generation to one-eighth of the time needed when generating PDFs directly from the magnitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

GenomeDepot: data management system for microbial comparative genomics

Summary GenomeDepot is an open-source web-based platform for annotation, management, and comparative analysis of microbial genomic sequences and associated data including ortholog families, protein domains, operons, regulatory interactions, strain taxonomy, and sample metadata. GenomeDepot supports rapid creation of websites for user-defined genome collections that include bioinformatic tools for interactive genome browsing, Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) search, annotation search, comparative genomic neighborhood visualization, and sequence download. Gene function annotations are generated by a customizable annotation pipeline. The pipeline runs annotation tools in Conda environments and can be easily extended with additional user-specified tools. Availability and implementation GenomeDepot is open source and distributed under the GNU General Public License via GitHub (https://github.com/aekazakov/genome-depot). GenomeDepot is implemented in Python and was tested in Ubuntu Linux. Full installation instructions and documentation are available at https://aekazakov.github.io/genome-depot/. GenomeDepot demo server is freely accessible at https://iseq.lbl.gov/demogd/.

Kazakov, Alexey [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past few decades around the world. In this study, the Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (EAST) system is merged into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) to quantify the variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, source contributions, and their subsequent radiative impact in four major emission regions across the globe during 1850–1980, 1980–2010, and 2010–2017. In North America and Europe, changes in anthropogenic PM 2.5 were mainly caused by changes in emissions from local energy and industrial sectors. The local industrial sector caused the largest increase in PM 2.5 in East Asia during 1980–2010 and decrease during 2010–2017. In South Asia, the increase in energy-related emissions dominated the rise in PM 2.5 levels during 1980–2017. During 1850–1980, the increases in emissions from North America contributed to the increase in the European PM 2.5 burden by 1.7 mg m -2 and the sources from the Europe were also responsible for the PM 2.5 burden increase in East Asia and South Asia by about 1.0 mg m -2 . During 1980–2010, East Asia contributed to an increase of 0.4–0.6 mg m -2 in the PM 2.5 burden in North America and Europe, while South Asia contributed about 0.3 mg m -2 . During 2010–2017, the contributions from East Asia to the PM 2.5 burdens in the North America, Europe, and South Asia declined by 0.3–0.6 mg m -2 due to the clean air actions in China, while the contributions from South Asia still increased due to the continuous increase in emissions in South Asia. The historical changes in aerosols had an impact on effective radiative forcing through aerosol–radiation interactions (ERF ari ). During 1980–2010, a decline in North American aerosols resulted in a positive ERF ari change (warming effect) in Europe and a decline in aerosols in Europe caused a warming effect in Russia and northern China. The changes in ERF ari from the increase and decrease in aerosols in China during 1980–2010 and 2010–2017, respectively, are comparable in magnitude. The continuous aerosol increases in South Asia from 1980 to 2017 resulted in negative ERF ari (cooling) changes in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and southern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B×B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincar´e map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. These action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 µrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B×B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B$\times$B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincaré map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. Additionally, these action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 μrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B$\times$B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploratory Studies of Mechanical Properties, Residual Stress, and Grain Evolution at the Local Regions near Pores in Additively Manufactured Metals

Directed energy deposition (DED) is gaining widespread acceptance in various industrial applications since its unique manufacturing features allow the DED to print metallic parts with very complex geometries. However, DED inevitably generates a lot of internal pores which can limit the widespread applications of the DED technique. The current studies on DED porosity are mostly focused on analyzing pores’ bulk-scale influences on mechanical properties and performances. Since DED pores have a micro-scale existence, with dimensions ranging from a few microns to several hundred microns, it is fundamental to explore the pores’ influences on the micro-scale, including local mechanical properties, residual stress, and grains near pores. However, this important research direction has been neglected. The objective of this work is to fill the above gap in DED porosity research and acquire a fundamental understanding of the role of porosity on a microscopic scale. The authors used nanoindentation approaches to investigate internal pores’ effects on mechanical properties and residual stress in local regions surrounding the pores. In addition, the grains near pores were observed through EBSD, and simulated with the Kinetic Monte Carlo model. The research findings can be provided for DED researchers and industrial practitioners as technical guidance. Most importantly, the research results can work as a good reference for tracing the source of bulk-scale mechanical performances and properties of DED parts with internal pores.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗