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NASA NTRS1993

A path-oriented matrix-based knowledge representation system

Experience has shown that designing a good representation is often the key to turning hard problems into simple ones. Most AI (Artificial Intelligence) search/representation techniques are oriented toward an infinite domain of objects and arbitrary relations among them. In reality much of what needs to be represented in AI can be expressed using a finite domain and unary or binary predicates. Well-known vector- and matrix-based representations can efficiently represent finite domains and unary/binary predicates, and allow effective extraction of path information by generalized transitive closure/path matrix computations. In order to avoid space limitations a set of abstract sparse matrix data types was developed along with a set of operations on them. This representation forms the basis of an intelligent information system for representing and manipulating relational data.

Feyock, Stefan↗

NASA NTRS2000

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2001

ISO Key Project: Exploring the Full Range of Quasar/AGN Properties

The origin of the infrared emission in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), whose strength is comparable to the optical/ultra-violet (OUV) emission, is generally thought to be a combination of thermal emission from dust and non-thermal, synchrotron emission. Although data are sparse, particularly in the far-infrared, the broad wavelength range of this emission suggests a wide range of temperatures and a combination of AGN and starburst heating mechanisms. The strength of the non-thermal emission is expected to be related to the radio emission. While this scenario is well-established, basic questions, such as the spatial and temperature distribution of the dust, the relative importance of AGN and starburst heating, and the significance of the non-thermal contribution, remain largely undetermined. The wide wavelength range of the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) combined with its arcmin spatial resolution and increased sensitivity facilitated the observation of a larger subset of the AGN population than previously covered, allowing these questions to be investigated in more detail. This paper will review the spectral energy distributions (SED) of AGN with particular emphasis on the infrared emission and on ISO contributions to our knowledge. Preliminary results from ISO observations of X-ray selected and high-redshift AGN will be described.

Wilkes, B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Far-Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions of Quasars

The origin of the infrared emission in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), whose strength is comparable to the optical/ultraviolet (OUV) emission, is generally thought to be a combination of thermal emission from dust and non-thermal, synchrotron emission. Although data are sparse, particularly in the far-infrared, the broad wavelength range of this emission suggests a wide range of temperatures and a combination of AGN and starburst heating mechanisms. The strength of the non-thermal emission is expected to be related to the radio emission. While this scenario is well-established, basic questions, such as the spatial and temperature distribution of the dust, the relative importance of AGN and starburst heating, and the significance of the non-thermal contribution remain largely undetermined. The wide wavelength range of the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) combined with its arcmin spatial resolution and increased sensitivity facilitated the observation of a larger subset of the AGN population than previously covered, allowing these questions to be investigated in more detail. This paper will review the spectral energy distributions (SED) of AGN with particular emphasis on the infrared emission and on ISO's contributions to our knowledge. Preliminary results from ISO observations of X-ray selected and high-redshift AGN will be described.

Wilkes, Belinda J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Spatial Coherence of Interannual Temperature Variations in the Antarctic Peninsula

Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

King, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ocular Counter-Rolling During Centrifugation and Static Tilt

Activation of the gravity sensors in the inner ear-the otoliths-generates reflexes that act to maintain posture and gaze. Ocular counter-rolling (OCR) is an example of such a reflex. When the head is tilted to the side, the eyes rotate around the line of sight in the opposite direction (i.e., counter-rolling). While turning comers, undergoing centrifugation, or making side-to-side tilting head movements, the OCR reflex orients the eyes towards the sum of the accelerations from body movements and gravity. Deconditioning of otolith-mediated reflexes following adaptation to microgravity has been proposed as the basis of many of the postural, locomotor, and gaze control problems experienced by returning astronauts. Evidence suggests that OCR is reduced postflight in about 75% of astronauts tested; but the data are sparse, primarily due to difficulties in recording rotational eye movements. During the Neurolab mission, a short-arm human centrifuge was flown that generated sustained sideways accelerations of 0.5-G and one-G to the head and upper body. This produces OCR; and so for the first time, the responses to sustained centrifugation could be studied without the influence of Earth's gravity on the results. This allowed us to determine the relative importance of sideways and vertical acceleration in the generation of OCR. This also provided the first test of the effects of exposure to artificial gravity in space on postflight otolith-ocular reflexes. There was little difference between the responses to centrifugation in microgravity and on Earth. In both conditions, the induced OCR was roughly proportional to the applied acceleration, with the OCR magnitude during 0.5-G centrifugation approximately 60% of that generated during one-G centrifugation. The overall mean OCR from the four payload crewmembers in response to one-G of sideways acceleration was 5.7 plus or minus 1.1 degree (mean and SD) on Earth. Inflight one-G centrifugation generated 5.7 plus or minus 1.1 degree of OCR, which was a small but significant decrease in OCR magnitude. The postflight OCR was 5.9 plus or minus 1.4 degree, which was not significantly different from preflight values. During both 0.5-G and one-G centrifugation in microgravity, where the head vertical gravitational component was absent, the OCR magnitude was not significantly different from that produced by an equivalent acceleration during static tilt on Earth. This suggests that the larger OCR magnitude observed during centrifugation on Earth was due to the larger body vertical linear acceleration component, which may have activated either the otoliths or the body tilt receptors. In contrast to previous studies, there was no decrease in OCR gain postflight. Our findings raise the possibility that inflight exposure to artificial gravity, in the form of intermittent one-G and 0.5-G centripetal acceleration, may have been a countermeasure to deconditioning of otolith-based orientation reflexes.

Cohen, Bernard↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Wavenumber Imaging For Damage Detection and Measurement

This paper presents a method for analyzing ultrasonic wavefield data using the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) applied in the spatial domain. Unlike data obtained by sparse arrays of transducers, full wavefield data contains information local to the structure and can be used to obtain more detailed measurements of damage type, location, size, etc. By calculating the CWT of the wavefield in the spatial domain, the wavenumber spectrum is determined for the inspected locations. Because wavenumber is affected by the local geometry and material properties of the structure through which Lamb waves propagate, the wavenumber spectrum can be analyzed to assess the location, severity, and size of damage. The technique is first applied to experimental wavefield data obtained using a laser Doppler vibrometer and automated positioning stage. The out-of-plane velocity along the length of a composite stringer was measured to detect the presence of delaminations within the composite overwrap. Next, simulated corrosion is detected and measured within an aluminum plate using the two dimensional CWT. The experimental results show the usefulness of the technique for vehicle structure inspection applications.

Rogge, Matthew D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

SAGE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

NASA NTRS2015

Orbit Determination for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Using an Extended Kalman Filter

Since launch, the FDF has performed daily OD for LRO using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). GTDS is a batch least-squares (BLS) estimator. The tracking data arc for OD is 36 hours. Current operational OD uses 200 x 200 lunar gravity, solid lunar tides, solar radiation pressure (SRP) using a spherical spacecraft area model, and point mass gravity for the Earth, Sun, and Jupiter. LRO tracking data consists of range and range-rate measurements from: Universal Space Network (USN) stations in Sweden, Germany, Australia, and Hawaii. A NASA antenna at White Sands, New Mexico (WS1S). NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) stations. DSN data was sparse and not included in this study. Tracking is predominantly (50) from WS1S. The OD accuracy requirements are: Definitive ephemeris accuracy of 500 meters total position root-mean-squared (RMS) and18 meters radial RMS. Predicted orbit accuracy less than 800 meters root sum squared (RSS) over an 84-hour prediction span.

LRO↗

NASA NTRS2019

Hurricane Stalling Along the North American Coast and Implications for Rainfall

The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to "stall" near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948-2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.

tropical cyclone tracks↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

Lisa C Simonsen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the Langley Aerodrome No. 8 (LA-8) tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigation of High Incidence Angle Propeller Aerodynamics for Subscale eVTOL Aircraft

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including significant incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. Propellers in oblique flow exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along their axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for understanding eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data exist for propellers operating at incidence. This report describes an experimental wind tunnel study of isolated propeller aerodynamics across a wide range of flight conditions expected to be experienced by the LA-8 tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. The experimental data obtained from the study are graphically presented and a discussion of observed aerodynamic phenomena is compared to theoretical expectations and past experimental work. The content of this report is intended to provide guidance to future propeller testing efforts and describe pertinent propeller aerodynamic behavior expected to be experienced by eVTOL vehicles.

propeller aerodynamics↗

NASA NTRS2021

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the LA-8 tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗