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NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Demonstration of AIRS Total Ozone Products to Operations to Enhance User Readiness

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRS2015

Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short‐term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES‐R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S‐NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near‐realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night‐time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region‐specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user‐based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

Fuell, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Experimental Products Development Team (EPDT) Supporting New AWIPS : Capabilities - Part 2

In 2012, the Experimental Products Development Team (EPDT) was formed within NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to create training for development of plug‐ins to extend the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) version 2. The broader atmospheric science community had a need for AWIPS II development training being created at SPoRT and EPDT was expanded to include other groups who were looking for training. Since the expansion of the group occurred, EPDT has provided AWIPS II development training to over thirty participants spanning a wide variety of groups such as NWS Systems Engineering Center, NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory, and several NOAA Cooperative Institutes. Participants within EPDT solidify their learning experience through hands‐on learning and by participating in a "code-sprint" in which they troubleshoot existing and develop plug‐ins. The hands‐on learning workshop is instructor lead with participants completing exercises within the AWIPS II Development Environment. During the code sprints EPDT groups work on projects important to the community and have worked on various plug‐ins such as an RGB image recipe creation tool, and an mPing (crowd sourced precipitation type reporting system) ingest and display. EPDT has developed a well‐defined training regime which prepares participants to fully develop plug‐ins for the extendible AWIPS II architecture from ingest to the display of new data. SPoRT has hosted 2 learning workshops and 1 code sprint over the last two years, and continues to build and shape the EPDT group based on feedback from previous workshops. The presentation will provide an overview of EPDT current and future activities, and best practices developed within EPDT.

Burks, Jason E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development and Application of Hyperspectral Infrared Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment Overview: Regional Impacts of Using the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB for Lightning IDSS

The new generation of GOES satellites has presented a wealth of novel observations and data products to the National Weather Service forecasters throughout the country. While high quality, low latency data is always welcome in operational environments, it is valuable to understand how new information is interpreted, and how it complements and supplements existing datasets. To that end, NASA SPoRT, in partnership with the NWS, hosted a formal assessment of the use of the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB to anticipate lightning initiation as indicated by either GLM, NLDN, or both, using an approach outlined by Elsenheimer and Gravelle (2019). As is typical for SPoRT assessments, we focused on a targeted time period (about 6 weeks in June and July 2021) and provided a brief training module to help forecasters become familiar with the application we were targeting and the objectives of our assessment. Unlike typical SPoRT assessments, we focused on a broad geographic region, coordinating with NWS Regional offices to garner participation from several different WFOs throughout the country. Given the field of view and observation angles of GOES-East and GOES-West, which anecdotally impacts GLM lightning observations in particular, having a geographically diverse participant list helps us interpret how these viewing differences may impact interpretation of the RGB and its value in anticipating lightning. Not unexpectedly, we found that the participating forecasters expressed that they could readily interpret the RGB to recognize glaciation and, in the absence of lightning data, use the RGB to anticipate that lightning was possible, for the purpose of impact-based decision support services (IDSS). Lead times from observations of glaciation to first flash were 19 minutes on average, and -10C isothermal reflectivities ranged from 34.5 to 52.5 dBZ. Herein, we present the detailed results of the formal assessment period and provide next steps and recommendations based on forecaster feedback for using the DCPD RGB in the context of anticipating lightning initiation and for IDSS, including regional differences in observations.

satellite remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1994

Electrical stimulation in exercise training

Electrical stimulation has a long history of use in medicine dating back to 46 A.D. when the Roman physician Largus found the electrical discharge of torpedo fishes useful in the treatment of pain produced by headache and gout. A rival Greek physician, Dioscorides, discounted the value of the torpedo fish for headache relief but did recommend its use in the treatment of hemorrhoids. In 1745, the Leyden jar and various sized electrostatic generators were used to treat angina pectoris, epilepsy, hemiplegia, kidney stones, and sciatica. Benjamin Franklin used an electrical device to treat successfully a young woman suffering from convulsive fits. In the late 1800's battery powered hydroelectric baths were used to treat chronic inflammation of the uterus while electrified athletic supporters were advertised for the treatment of male problems. Fortunately, such an amusing early history of the simple beginnings of electrical stimulation did not prevent eventual development of a variety of useful therapeutic and rehabilitative applications of electrical stimulation. Over the centuries electrical stimulation has survived as a modality in the treatment of various medical disorders with its primary application being in the rehabilitation area. Recently, a surge of new interest in electrical stimulation has been kindled by the work of a Russian sport scientist who reported remarkable muscle strength and endurance improvements in elite athletes. Yakov Kots reported his research on electric stimulation and strength improvements in 1977 at a Canadian-Soviet Exchange Symposium held at Concordia University in Montreal. Since then an explosion of new studies has been seen in both sport science and in medicine. Based upon the reported works of Kots and the present surge of new investigations, one could be misled as to the origin of electrical stimulation as a technique to increase muscle strength. As a matter of fact, electric stimulation has been used as a technique to improve muscle strength for over a century. Bigelow reported in 1894, for example, the use of electrical stimulation on a young man for the purpose of increasing muscle strength. Employing a rapidly alternating sinusoidal induced current and a dynamometer for strength testing, Bigelow reported that the total lifting capacity of a patient increased from 4328 pounds to 4639 pounds after only 25 minutes of stimulation. In 1965, Massey et al. reported on the use of an Isotron electrical stimulator that emitted a high frequency current. Interestingly enough, the frequencies used by Massey et al. and the frequencies used by Bigelow in 1894 were in the same range of frequencies reported by Kots as being the most effective in strength development. It would seem the Russian secret of high frequency electrical stimulation for strength development, then, is not a modern development at all.

Kroll, Walter↗

NASA NTRS2001

Teeing Off With an Entirely New Material

Liquidmetal(R) alloy is part of an entirely new class of vitrified metals, and is also known as metallic glass, or Vitreloy(R). A vitrified metal is a frozen liquid that fails to crystallize during solidification, unlike common metals such as titanium, steel, and aluminum. The technology takes the non-crystalline structure of glass and combines it with the properties of metal, a combination not found in nature, allowing for a product that offers the strength of a metal with the elasticity of a polymer. This unique technology is more than twice as strong as titanium and has a higher elastic limit. Liquidmetal(R) Golf presents this space-age development in a complete line golf clubs. Clubs made with this technology have a lower vibration response along with a softer, more solid feel. Because less energy is absorbed by the club's head upon impact, more energy is transferred directly to the ball. Vitreloy has potential commercial uses in sporting equipment: tennis rackets, bicycle frames, and baseball bats. The material may find applications in the medical industry for the manufacturing of surgical instruments and prosthetics. The Liquidmetal alloy is projected to replace many high performance materials, such as titanium, in the industries of aerospace, defense, military, automotives, medical instrumentation, and sporting goods

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Bridging the Gap Between Research and Operations in the National Weather Service: The Huntsville Model

The National Weather Service Office (WFO) in Huntsville, Alabama (HUN) is slated to begin full-time operations in early 2003. With the opening of the Huntsville WFO, a unique opportunity has arisen for close and productive collaboration with scientists at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). As a part of the collaboration effort, NASA has developed the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. The mission of the SPoRT center is to incorporate NASA earth science technology and research into the NWS operational environment. Emphasis will be on improving mesoscale and short-term forecasting in the first 24 hours of the forecast period. As part of the collaboration effort, the NWS and NASA will develop an implementation and evaluation plan to streamline the integration of the latest technologies and techniques into the operational forecasting environment. The desire of WFO HUN, NASA, and UAH is to provide a model for future collaborative activities between research and operational communities across the country.

Darden, C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Gold Medal Finish

During the summer of 1999, Darryl Mitchell of Goddard Space Flight Center's Technology Commercialization Office (TCO) met with the U.S. Olympic Committee at the official training facility in Colorado Springs, Colorado, to offer assistance in transferring NASA technologies applicable to Olympic sports. Following the meeting with the Olympic committee, Mitchell was approached by U.S. Speedskating Long Track Program Director Finn Halvorsen, who eagerly voiced his interest in working with NASA to identify a means of improving performance for his team. According to Halvorsen, 'If (NASA) can put a man on the moon, surely they can help our skaters.' Mitchell and Halvorsen went to work uncovering NASA technologies that could boost the U.S. team's skating capabilities. Mitchell received a crash course in speedskating, and as a result, generated a lengthy list of promising NASA developments that could benefit the sport. From this list, he and his Goddard TCO partner, Joe Famiglietti, deliberated over whether a NASA mirror-polishing technique could possibly be adapted to the athletes speedskates. The polishing technique, developed by Jim Lyons, a 16-year optical engineering veteran of Goddard, was derived from the same principles used to create the optics for NASA's science observatories, such as the Hubble Space Telescope (highly polished optics are required by NASA to obtain sharp, clear images in space).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Near Real-time Derived Products from MODIS

As part of the Short-term Prediction Research Transition (SPoRT) program at NASA/MSFC, near real-time total precipitable water and land/sea surface temperature products from MODIS, on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, are being derived from a subset of MODIS channels with spectral characteristics similar to those planned for the GOES-R ABI. Under the SPoRT program these products are made available to several NWS Forecast Offices to assist in the preparation of short-term forecasts. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation of satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands-on applications to their forecast problems. The derived products are produced from a physical retrieval algorithm which can be applied to polar or geostationary measurements. The algorithm is a perturbation solution of the radiation transfer equation for a nonscattering atmosphere requiring first-guess temperature and moisture profiles. For this application first-guess information is obtained from the latest model forecasts. The utility of this retrieval approach is that it provides a near real-time high resolution update of a model's forecasted parameter allowing forecasters to validate and monitor the performance of the model's forecast. The poster will provide a description of the retrieval methodology and examples of the derived products. Case studies will also be presented comparing these products with those obtained from the Earth Observing System (EOS) MODIS science team algorithms.

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Transition of NASA EOS Datasets to WFO Operations: A Model for Future Technology Transfer

The collocation of a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office with atmospheric scientists from NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama has afforded a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. Specifically, the NWS office in Huntsville has interacted closely with research scientists within the SPORT (Short-term Prediction and Research and Transition) Center at MSFC. One significant technology transfer that has reaped dividends is the transition of unique NASA EOS polar orbiting datasets into NWS field operations. NWS forecasters primarily rely on the AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information and Processing System) decision support system for their day to day forecast and warning decision making. Unfortunately, the transition of data from operational polar orbiters or low inclination orbiting satellites into AWIPS has been relatively slow due to a variety of reasons. The ability to integrate these high resolution NASA datasets into operations has yielded several benefits. The MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer ) instrument flying on the Aqua and Terra satellites provides a broad spectrum of multispectral observations at resolutions as fine as 250m. Forecasters routinely utilize these datasets to locate fine lines, boundaries, smoke plumes, locations of fog or haze fields, and other mesoscale features. In addition, these important datasets have been transitioned to other WFOs for a variety of local uses. For instance, WFO Great Falls Montana utilizes the MODIS snow cover product for hydrologic planning purposes while several coastal offices utilize the output from the MODIS and AMSR-E instruments to supplement observations in the data sparse regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. In the short term, these datasets have benefited local WFOs in a variety of ways. In the longer term, the process by which these unique datasets were successfully transitioned to operations will benefit the planning and implementation of products and datasets derived from both NPP and NPOESS. This presentation will provide a brief overview of current WFO usage of satellite data, the transition of datasets between SPORT and the N W S , and lessons learned for future transition efforts.

Darden, C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Dissemination and Use of NPOESS Data in AWIPS II

Real-time satellite information provides one of many data sources used by NWS forecast offices to diagnose current weather conditions and to assist in short-term forecast preparation. While GOES satellite data provides relatively coarse spatial resolution coverage of the continental U.S. on a 10-15 minute repeat cycle, polar orbiting data has the potential to provide snapshots of weather conditions at high-resolution in many spectral channels. The multispectral polar orbiting satellite capabilities allow for the derivation of image and sounding products not available from geostationary orbit. The utility of these polar orbiting measurements to forecasters has been demonstrated with NASA EOS observations as part of the Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) program at Marshall Space Flight Center. SPORT scientists have been providing real-time MODIS data to NWS forecasters on an experimental basis to address a variety of short-term weather forecasting problems since 2003. The launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in 2009 will extend the continuity of high-resolution data provided by the NASA EOS satellites into future operational weather systems. The NPP data will be available in a timeframe consistent with the early installation of the next generation Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS) under development by Raytheon for the NWS. The AWIPS II system will be a JAVA-based decision support system which preserves the functionality of the existing systems and offers unique development opportunities for new data sources and applications in the Service Orientated Architecture (SOA) environment. The poster will highlight some of the advanced observing and display- capabilities of these new systems such as plug-ins for NASA and NPP datasets, and the development of local applications which are not well handled in the current AWIPS (e.g., 3D displays of LMA data, generation and display of 3-channel color composites, etc.).

Jedlovec, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sensitivity of Short-Term Weather Forecasts to Assimilated AIRS Data: Implications for NPOESS Applications

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Operational Assessment of the MODIS False Color Composite with the Great Falls, Montana National Weather Service

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office (WFO) in Great Falls, MT and the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. In particular, SPoRT has provided a false color composite product derived from MODIS data, which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System. This product is designed to delineate snow and ice covered ground, bare ground and clouds. The Great Falls WFO has been a test bed of the MODIS false color composite as a tool in operations to monitor the development and dissipation of snow cover In particular, preliminary applications have shown that the product can be used to monitor snow cover in remote locations as well as ice in rivers. This information can lead to improved assessments of flooding potential during post event conditions where rapid melting and runoff are anticipated. The potential of this product on future geostationary satellites may substantially contribute to the NWS mission by providing enhanced situational awareness. The operational use of this product has been transitioned at WFO Great Falls through a process of product implementation, discussions with the service hydrologist and forecasters, and post event analysis. A concentrated assessment period from January to March, 2008 was initiated to investigate the impact of the MODIS false color product on WFO Great Falls' operations. This presentation will emphasize the impact the MODIS false color product had in the WFO's situational awareness and how best this information can be used to influence operational decisions.

Loss, GIna↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development and Testing of Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Based Lightning Initiation Forecast Techniques

Lightning is one of Earth s natural dangers, destructive not only to life but also physical property. According to the National Weather Service, there are on average 58 lightning fatalities each year, with over 300 related injuries (NWS 2010). The ability to forecast lightning is critical to a host of activities ranging from space vehicle launch operations to recreational sporting events. For example a single lightning strike to a Space Shuttle could cause billions of dollars of damage and possible loss of life. While forecasting that provides longer lead times could provide sporting officials with more time to respond to possible threatening weather events, thus saving the lives of player and bystanders. Many researchers have developed and tested different methods and tools of first flash forecasting, however few have done so using dual-polarimetric radar variables and products on an operational basis. The purpose of this study is to improve algorithms for the short-term prediction of lightning initiation through development and testing of operational techniques that rely on parameters observed and diagnosed using C-band dual-polarimetric radar.

Woodard, Crystal↗