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Landslide Runout Analysis Using Remote Sensing for Lower and Upper Barun Lakes

Landslides are recognized as common triggers of glacial lake outburst floods in high mountain regions, but the remoteness of dangerous glacial lakes makes monitoring and disaster management very difficult. Using a very high resolution digital elevation model produced from a series of stereo satellite images, we simulate debris flows and rock avalanche runout around two very dangerous lakes in high mountain Nepal. We constrain particularly likely sources of these slope failures to simulate 79,800 potential debris flows and rock avalanches of volumes ranging from 1,000 m3 to 1,000,000 m3. This allowed us to identify zones in and around dangerous glacial lakes that are most exposed to landslide runout hazards, along with the most frequent source areas that produced landslides that may run into either of the two glacial lakes. Although our empirical-statistical model presented limitations that numerical models attempt to overcome, our probabilistic approach combined with a very high resolution DEM may shed new light on how to identify sources and impact areas of debris flows and rock avalanches that may cascade into downstream disasters.

landslides↗

NASA NTRS2015

Selective Laser Melting Inconel 718 Restart Study

Selective Laser Melting (SLM) machines can occasionally shut down (such as in the event of a power failure), which requires the SLM build to be restarted. It has been observed that machine restarts can produce visible "restart lines" in the part, and, in at least one instance, a test specimen containing a restart line exhibited poor mechanical properties. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of different machine restart factors on the mechanical properties of the produced SLM material. Test specimens were produced by varying time to restart, the number of re-sinters, and whether or not the build required re-levelling. These are build variables that are typically controlled by the machine operator. Test results indicate that re-leveling and using three re-sinters produces acceptable material. Statistical analysis indicates that re-leveling and re-sintering have strong effects on the resulting material properties. Additionally, the visibility of a restart line loosely correlates with material properties such that obvious restart lines tended to indicate worse material properties.

Tilson, William G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Long-term risk analysis associated with nuclear waste disposal in space

An assessment and verification of previous analytic results on the long term risk of earth reentry for hazardous payloads is presented. The two areas were studied: (1) stability of nominal, near-circular storage orbits in the regions between Venus and earth and between earth and Mars, and (2) probability of earth reentry for off-nominal planet-crossing orbits resulting from deployment system failures. In the first area, numerical integrations of the equations of motion are compared with stability predications based on secular perturbation theory. The agreement is good in terms of the heliocentric distances covered and the general behavior of the orbital history, although certain near-resonance situations can lead to difficulty. In the second area, a Monte Carlo simulation of orbital evolution is used and the results compared with Opik's analytic theory of planetary encounters and collision statistics, with data verified to within a close order-of-magnitude.

Friedlander, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reliability evaluation methodology for NASA applications

Liquid rocket engine technology has been characterized by the development of complex systems containing large number of subsystems, components, and parts. The trend to even larger and more complex system is continuing. The liquid rocket engineers have been focusing mainly on performance driven designs to increase payload delivery of a launch vehicle for a given mission. In otherwords, although the failure of a single inexpensive part or component may cause the failure of the system, reliability in general has not been considered as one of the system parameters like cost or performance. Up till now, quantification of reliability has not been a consideration during system design and development in the liquid rocket industry. Engineers and managers have long been aware of the fact that the reliability of the system increases during development, but no serious attempts have been made to quantify reliability. As a result, a method to quantify reliability during design and development is needed. This includes application of probabilistic models which utilize both engineering analysis and test data. Classical methods require the use of operating data for reliability demonstration. In contrast, the method described in this paper is based on similarity, analysis, and testing combined with Bayesian statistical analysis.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Manderscheid, Jane M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nondestructive Structural Damage Detection in Flexible Space Structures Using Vibration Characterization

Spacecraft are susceptible to structural damage over their operating life from impact, environmental loads, and fatigue. Structural damage that is not detected and not corrected may potentially cause more damage and eventually catastrophic structural failure. NASA's current fleet of reusable spacecraft, namely the Space Shuttle, has been flown on several missions. In addition, configurations of future NASA space structures, e.g. Space Station Freedom, are larger and more complex than current structures, making them more susceptible to damage as well as being more difficult to inspect. Consequently, a reliable structural damage detection capability is essential to maintain the flight safety of these structures. Visual inspections alone can not locate impending material failure (fatigue cracks, yielding); it can only observe post-failure situations. An alternative approach is to develop an inspection and monitoring system based on vibration characterization that assesses the integrity of structural and mechanical components. A methodology for detecting structural damage is presented. This methodology is based on utilizing modal test data in conjunction with a correlated analytical model of the structure to: (1) identify the structural dynamic characteristics (resonant frequencies and mode shapes) from measurements of ambient motions and/or force excitation; (2) calculate modal residual force vectors to identify the location of structural damage; and (3) conduct a weighted sensitivity analysis in order to assess the extent of mass and stiffness variations, where structural damage is characterized by stiffness reductions. The approach is unique from other existing approaches in that varying system mass and stiffness, mass center locations, the perturbation of both the natural frequencies and mode shapes, and statistical confidence factors for structural parameters and experimental instrumentation are all accounted for directly.

Ricles, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Statistical analysis of SSME system data

A statistical methodology to enhance the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) performance prediction accuracy is proposed. This methodology was to be used in conjunction with existing SSME performance prediction computer codes to improve parameter prediction accuracy and to quantify that accuracy. However, after a review of related literature, researchers concluded that the proposed problem required a coverage of areas such as linear and nonlinear system theory, measurement theory, statistics, and stochastic estimation. Since state space theory is the foundation for a more complete study of each of the before mentioned areas, these researchers chose to refocus emphasis to cover the more specialized topic of state vector estimation procedures. State vector estimation was also selected because of current and future concerns by NASA for SSME performance evaluation; i.e., there is a current interest in an improved evaluation procedure for actual SSME post flight performance as well as for post static test performance of a single SSME. A current investigation of analytical methods may be used to improve test stand failure detection. This paper considers the issue of post flight/test state variable reconstruction through the application of observations made on the output of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. Rogers used the Kalman filtering procedure to reconstruct the state variables of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. An objective of this paper is to give the general setup of the Kalman filter and its connection to linear regression. A second objective is to examine the reconstruction methodology for application to the reconstruction of the state vector of a single Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) by using static test firing data.

Temple, Enoch C.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Operations analysis (study 2.1): Program manual and users guide for the LOVES computer code

Information is provided necessary to use the LOVES Computer Program in its existing state, or to modify the program to include studies not properly handled by the basic model. The Users Guide defines the basic elements assembled together to form the model for servicing satellites in orbit. As the program is a simulation, the method of attack is to disassemble the problem into a sequence of events, each occurring instantaneously and each creating one or more other events in the future. The main driving force of the simulation is the deterministic launch schedule of satellites and the subsequent failure of the various modules which make up the satellites. The LOVES Computer Program uses a random number generator to simulate the failure of module elements and therefore operates over a long span of time typically 10 to 15 years. The sequence of events is varied by making several runs in succession with different random numbers resulting in a Monte Carlo technique to determine statistical parameters of minimum value, average value, and maximum value.

Wray, S. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

NASA NTRS1995

Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha, Background and Summary of Mathematical Modeling and Failure Density Distributions Pertaining to Maintenance Time Dependent Parameters

The process of predicting the values of maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF) over time must be one that will not in turn introduce uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. A minor deviation in the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as MTBF over time will have a significant impact on the logistics resources demands, International Space Station availability and maintenance support costs. There are two types of parameters in the logistics and maintenance world: a. Fixed; b. Variable Fixed parameters, such as cost per man hour, are relatively easy to predict and forecast. These parameters normally follow a linear path and they do not change randomly. However, the variable parameters subject to the study in this report such as MTBF do not follow a linear path and they normally fall within the distribution curves which are discussed in this publication. The very challenging task then becomes the utilization of statistical techniques to accurately forecast the future non-linear time dependent variable arisings and events with a high confidence level. This, in turn, shall translate in tremendous cost savings and improved availability all around.

Sepehry-Fard, F.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Designing of a Fleet-Leader Program for Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases on board spacecraft when mass saving is a prime requirement. Substantial weight savings can be achieved compared to all metallic pressure vessels. For example, on the space shuttle, replacement of all metallic pressure vessels with Kevlar COPVs resulted in a weight savings of about 30 percent. Mass critical space applications such as the Ares and Orion vehicles are currently being planned to use as many COPVs as possible in place of all-metallic pressure vessels to minimize the overall mass of the vehicle. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads during long periods of a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is, therefore, important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since it is practically impossible to show by experimental testing the reliability of flight quality vessels. Also, it is a common practice to set aside flight quality vessels as "fleet leaders" in a test program where these vessels are subjected to slightly accelerated operating conditions so that they lead the actual flight vessels both in time and load. The intention of fleet leaders is to provide advanced warning if there is a serious design flaw in the vessels so that a major disaster in the flight vessels can be averted with advance warning. On the other hand, the accelerating conditions must be not so severe as to be prone to false alarms. The primary focus of the present paper is to provide an analytical basis for designing a viable fleet leader program for carbon COPVs. The analysis is based on a stress rupture behavior model incorporating Weibull statistics and power-law sensitivity of life to fiber stress level.

Murthy, Pappu L.N.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Quantification of scaling exponents and crossover phenomena in nonstationary heartbeat time series

The healthy heartbeat is traditionally thought to be regulated according to the classical principle of homeostasis whereby physiologic systems operate to reduce variability and achieve an equilibrium-like state [Physiol. Rev. 9, 399-431 (1929)]. However, recent studies [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 1343-1346 (1993); Fractals in Biology and Medicine (Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, 1994), pp. 55-65] reveal that under normal conditions, beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate display the kind of long-range correlations typically exhibited by dynamical systems far from equilibrium [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381-384 (1987)]. In contrast, heart rate time series from patients with severe congestive heart failure show a breakdown of this long-range correlation behavior. We describe a new method--detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)--for quantifying this correlation property in non-stationary physiological time series. Application of this technique shows evidence for a crossover phenomenon associated with a change in short and long-range scaling exponents. This method may be of use in distinguishing healthy from pathologic data sets based on differences in these scaling properties.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗

NASA NTRS1995

Flexure fatigue testing of 90 deg graphite/epoxy composites

A great deal of research has been performed characterizing the in-plane fiber-dominated properties, under both static and fatigue loading, of advanced composite materials. To the author's knowledge, no study has been performed to date investigating fatigue characteristics in the transverse direction. This information is important in the design of bonded composite airframe structure where repeated, cyclic out-of-plane bending may occur. Recent tests characterizing skin/stringer debond failures in reinforced composite panels where the dominant loading in the skin is flexure along the edge of the frame indicate failure initiated either in the skin or else the flange, near the flange tip. When failure initiated in the skin, transverse matrix cracks formed in the surface skin ply closest to the flange and either initiated delaminations or created matrix cracks in the next lower ply, which in turn initiated delaminations. When failure initiated in the flanges, transverse cracks formed in the flange angle ply closest to the skin and initiated delamination. In no configuration did failure propagate through the adhesive bond layer. For the examined skin/flange configurations, the maximum transverse tension stress at failure correlates very well with the transverse tension strength of the composites. Transverse tension strength (static) data of graphite epoxy composites have been shown to vary with the volume of material stressed. As the volume of material stressed increased, the strength decreased. A volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics can be used to predict the transverse strength measurements. The volume dependence reflects the presence of inherent flaws in the microstructure of the lamina. A similar approach may be taken to determine a volume scale effect on the transverse tension fatigue behavior of graphite/epoxy composites. The objective of this work is to generate transverse tension strength and fatigue S-N characteristics for composite materials using 3-point flexure tests of 90 deg graphite/epoxy specimens. Investigations will include the volume scale effect as well as frequency and span-to-thickness ratio effects. Prior to the start of the experimental study, an analytical study using finite element modeling will be performed to investigate the span-to-thickness effect. The ratio of transverse flexure stress to shear stress will be monitored and its values predicted by the FEM analysis compared with the value obtained using a 'strength of materials' based approach.

Peck, Ann Nancy W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Multi-Parameter Approach for Calculating Crack Instability

An accurate fracture control analysis of spacecraft pressure systems, boosters, rocket hardware and other critical low-cycle fatigue cases where the fracture toughness highly impacts cycles to failure requires accurate knowledge of the material fracture toughness. However, applicability of the measured fracture toughness values using standard specimens and transferability of the values to crack instability analysis of the realistically complex structures is refutable. The commonly used single parameter Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) approach which relies on the key assumption that the fracture toughness is a material property would result in inaccurate crack instability predictions. In the past years extensive studies have been conducted to improve the single parameter (K-controlled) LEFM by introducing parameters accounting for the geometry or in-plane constraint effects]. Despite the importance of the thickness (out-of-plane constraint) effects in fracture control problems, the literature is mainly limited to some empirical equations for scaling the fracture toughness data] and only few theoretically based developments can be found. In aerospace hardware where the structure might have only one life cycle and weight reduction is crucial, reducing the design margin of safety by decreasing the uncertainty involved in fracture toughness evaluations would result in lighter hardware. In such conditions LEFM would not suffice and an elastic-plastic analysis would be vital. Multi-parameter elastic plastic crack tip field quantifying developments combined with statistical methods] have been shown to have the potential to be used as a powerful tool for tackling such problems. However, these approaches have not been comprehensively scrutinized using experimental tests. Therefore, in this paper a multi-parameter elastic-plastic approach has been used to study the crack instability problem and the transferability issue by considering the effects of geometrical constraints as well as the thickness. The feasibility of the approach has been examined using a wide range of specimen geometries and thicknesses manufactured from 7075-T7351 aluminum alloy.

Zanganeh, M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Multiple-time scales analysis of physiological time series under neural control

We discuss multiple-time scale properties of neurophysiological control mechanisms, using heart rate and gait regulation as model systems. We find that scaling exponents can be used as prognostic indicators. Furthermore, detection of more subtle degradation of scaling properties may provide a novel early warning system in subjects with a variety of pathologies including those at high risk of sudden death.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scatter in Carbon/Silicon Carbide (C/SiC) Composites Quantified

Carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC) composites processed by chemical vapor infiltration are candidate materials for aerospace thermal structures. Carbon fibers can retain properties at very high temperatures, but they are known to have poor oxidation resistance in adverse, high-temperature environments. Nevertheless, the combination of CVI-SiC matrix with higher stiffness and oxidation resistance, the interfacial coating, and additional surface-seal coating provides the necessary protection to the carbon fibers, and makes the material viable for high-temperature space applications operating under harsh environments. Furthermore, C/SiC composites, like other ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), exhibit graceful non-catastrophic failure because of various inherent energy dissipating mechanisms. The material exhibits nonlinearity in deformation even at very low stress levels. This is the result of the severe matrix microcracking present in the as processed composite because of large differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion of the fiber and the matrix. Utilization of these advanced composites in next generation space vehicles will require innovative structural configurations, updated materials, and refined analyses. Structural safety issues for these vehicles are in direct competition with performance and cost. One would have to quantify the uncertainties associated with the design using formal probabilistic methods. Specifically four fundamental aspects on which analyses are based-- (1) loading conditions, (2) material behavior, (3) geometrical configurations, and (4) structural connections between the composite components and baseline structure--are stochastic in nature. A direct way to formally account for uncertainties is to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods where all participating variables are described by appropriate probability density functions. The present work, however, focuses on analyzing the stochastic material behavior of these advanced composites using formal probabilistic analysis methods. Often, some of the desirable property characteristics that allow composites to offer advantages over conventional structural materials (like tailoring of composite properties) and the complexity are in fact responsible for their greater statistical variability and the requirements for more characterization tests. Composite properties are anisotropic as well, having different properties in different directions. This means that characterization of a property such as stiffness--which will vary greatly depending on the orientation of the fiber relative to the direction of the testing--must be repeated for several different directions and loading conditions. The fabrication process for composites also introduces statistical variations in properties and geometry. A composite part is produced in a number of steps, each of which introduces statistical variability. The matrix is usually produced from a combination of raw materials; and the fiber, which has its own set of properties, is often coated or surface treated, introducing yet another source of variability.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗