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At least 217 records · Page 12

On the Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period Relationships

Examined are Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period relationships based on the cyclic behavior of the 12-month moving averages of monthly mean sunspot numbers for cycles 0.23, both in terms of Fisher's exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables and linear regression analyses. Concerning the Period-Amplitude relationship (same cycle), because cycle 23's maximum amplitude is known to be 120.8, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that its period will be 131 +/- 24 months (using all cycles) or 131 +/- 18 months (ignoring cycles 2 and 4, which have the extremes of period, 108 and 164 months, respectively). Because cycle 23 has already persisted for 142 months (May 1996 through February 2008), based on the latter prediction, it should end before September 2008. Concerning the Amplitude-Period relationship (following cycle maximum amplitude versus preceding cycle period), because cycle 23's period is known to be at least 142 months, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that cycle 24's maximum amplitude will be about less than or equal to 96.1 +/- 55.0 (using all cycle pairs) or less than or equal to 91.0 +/- 36.7 (ignoring statistical outlier cycle pairs). Hence, cycle 24's maximum amplitude is expected to be less than 151, perhaps even less than 128, unless cycle pair 23/24 proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Canadian and Alaskan Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties, Their Evolution and Controlling Factors, From Satellite Observations

The optical and chemical properties of biomass burning (BB) smoke particles greatly affect the impact that wildfires have on climate and air quality. Previous work has demonstrated some links between smoke properties and factors such as fuel type and meteorology. However, the factors controlling BB particle speciation at emission are not adequately understood nor are the factors driving particle aging during atmospheric transport. As such, modeling wildfire smoke impacts on climate and air quality remains challenging. The potential to provide robust, statistical characterizations of BB particles based on ecosystem type and ambient environmental conditions with remote sensing data is investigated here. Space-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations, combined with the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) algorithm and the MISR Interactive Explorer (MINX) tool, are used to retrieve smoke plume aerosol optical depth (AOD) and to provide constraints on plume vertical extent; smoke age; and particle size, shape, light-absorption properties, and absorption spectral dependence. These tools are applied to numerous wildfire plumes in Canada and Alaska, across a range of conditions, to create a regional inventory of BB particle-type temporal and spatial distribution. We then statistically compare these results with satellite measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and land cover characteristics, as well as short-term climate, meteorological, and drought information from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis and the North American Drought Monitor. We find statistically significant differences in the retrieved smoke properties based on land cover type, with fires in forests producing the thickest plumes containing the largest, brightest particles and fires in savannas and grasslands exhibiting the opposite. Additionally, the inferred dominant aging mechanisms and the timescales over which they occur vary systematically between land types. This work demonstrates the potential of remote sensing to constrain BB particle properties and the mechanisms governing their evolution over entire ecosystems. It also begins to realize this potential, as a means of improving regional and global climate and air quality modeling in a rapidly changing world.

Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes↗

Motion at the ionization front in the Orion nebula - A kinematic study of the forbidden O I line

The kinematics of the ionization front in H II regions is investigated via a study of the collisionally excited forbidden O I emission at 630 nm. Slit spectra of 5/km s resolution are used to examine the velocities of forbidden O I across the inner few arcminutes of M42. The mean velocity is significantly more positive than for other ions, which confirms the argument that the ionization front is formed against the parent molecular cloud OMC 1. It is inferred that there is acceleration of material in the ionization front at the parent molecular cloud. A new model for M42 based largely on optical emission-line and radio absorption-line studies is presented. A detailed statistical analysis indicates agreement between the structure function and the Kolmogorov theory for turbulence.

O'Dell, C. R.↗

Manicouagan impact melt, Quebec. I - Stratigraphy, petrology, and chemistry

A sheet of clast-laden impact melt 230 m thick and 55 km in diameter forms an annular plateau surrounding an uplift of shocked anorthosite within the moderately eroded Manicouagan structure. Three gradational units of the melt sheet are characterized with respect to grain size, inclusions, texture, and mineralogy. The melt rocks as a group are chemically homogeneous with a bulk composition similar to that of latite and with no statistically significant regional chemical variations. The melt is not completely chemically homogeneous as a local mafic variant represented by two samples with poikilitic texture was found. These poikilitic rocks texturally resemble some Apollo 17 impact melt rocks and are inferred to have had a similar origin and thermal history.

Floran, R. J.↗

Optical and Near-Infrared Observations of SN 2013DX Associated with GRB 130702A

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) light curves and optical spectra of SN 2013dx, associated with the nearby (redshift 0.145) gamma-ray burst GRB 130702A. The prompt isotropic gamma-ray energy released from GRB 130702A is measured to be E(sub gamma, iso) = 6.4(+1.3/-1.0) x 10(exp 50) erg (1 keV to 10 MeV in the rest frame), placing it intermediate between low-luminosity GRBs like GRB 980425/SN 1998bw and the broader cosmological population. We compare the observed g'r'i'z' light curves of SN 2013dx to a SN 1998bw template, finding that SN 2013dx evolves approx. 20% faster (steeper rise time), with a comparable peak luminosity. Spectroscopically, SN 2013dx resembles other broad-lined SNe Ic, both associated with (SN 2006aj and SN 1998bw) and lacking (SN 1997ef, SN 2007I, and SN 2010ah) gamma-ray emission, with photospheric velocities around peak of approx. 21,000 km/s. We construct a quasi-bolometric (g'r'z'yJ) light curve for SN 2013dx, only the fifth GRB-associated SN with extensive NIR coverage and the third with a bolometric light curve extending beyond (Delta)t > 40 days. Together with the measured photospheric velocity, we derive basic explosion parameters using simple analytic models. We infer a Ni-56 mass of M(sub Ni) = 0.37+/- 0.01 Stellar Mass, an ejecta mass of M(sub ej) = 3.1+/- 0.1 Stellar Mass, and a kinetic energy of E(sub K) = (8.2+/- 0.43) x 10(exp 51) erg (statistical uncertainties only), consistent with previous GRB-associated supernovae. When considering the ensemble population of GRB-associated supernovae, we find no correlation between the mass of synthesized Ni-56 and high-energy properties, despite clear predictions from numerical simulations that M(sub Ni) should correlate with the degree of asymmetry. On the other hand, M(sub Ni) clearly correlates with the kinetic energy of the supernova ejecta across a wide range of core-collapse events.

gamma-ray burst: individual (GRB 130702A) – supe↗

The Use of a Satellite Climatological Data Set to Infer Large Scale Three Dimensional Flow Characteristics

Ever since the first satellite image loops from the 6.3 micron water vapor channel on the METEOSAT-1 in 1978, there have been numerous efforts (many to a great degree of success) to relate the water vapor radiance patterns to familiar atmospheric dynamic quantities. The realization of these efforts is becoming evident with the merging of satellite derived winds into predictive models (Velden et al., 1997; Swadley and Goerss, 1989). Another parameter that has been quantified from satellite water vapor channel measurements is upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) (e.g., Soden and Bretherton, 1996; Schmetz and Turpeinen, 1988). These humidity measurements, in turn, can be used to quantify upper tropospheric water vapor and its transport to more accurately diagnose climate changes (Lerner et al., 1998; Schmetz et al. 1995a) and quantify radiative processes in the upper troposphere. Also apparent in water vapor imagery animations are regions of subsiding and ascending air flow. Indeed, a component of the translated motions we observe are due to vertical velocities. The few attempts at exploiting this information have been met with a fair degree of success. Picon and Desbois (1990) statistically related Meteosat monthly mean water vapor radiances to six standard pressure levels of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model vertical velocities and found correlation coefficients of about 0.50 or less. This paper presents some preliminary results of viewing climatological satellite water vapor data in a different fashion. Specifically, we attempt to infer the three dimensional flow characteristics of the mid- to upper troposphere as portrayed by GOES VAS during the warm ENSO event (1987) and a subsequent cold period in 1998.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

Stratospheric effects of solar ultraviolet variations on the solar rotation time scale

A summary is presented of some current work on measurement and interpretation of stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to observed short term solar ultraviolet variations. Although some studies have yielded provisional evidence for a nearly in-phase ozone-solar cycle relationship, they extend at most over only one or two 11 year cycles so the statistical significance of the correlations is not large. Similarly, the relatively short lengths of individual satellite data sets combined with the problem of estimating the effect of changes in instrument sensitivity (drift) during the observing period have complicated attempts to infer long term or solar cycle ozone trends. The solar rotation and active region development time scale provides an alternate time scale for which detailed studies of middle atmospheric ozone and temperature responses to solar ultraviolet variability are currently possible using available satellite data sets. At tropical latitudes where planetary wave amplitudes are relatively small, clear correlative evidence for the existence of middle atmospheric ozone and temperature responses to short term solar ultraviolet variations has been obtained in recent years. These measurements will ultimately allow improved empirical and theoretical calculations of longer term solar induced ozone and temperature variations at low and middle latitudes.

Hood, L. L.↗

Cloud microphysical properties from multispectral reflectance measurements

Images as well as statistical properties of the cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius derived from reflected solar radiation measurements at 0.75, 1.65, and 2.16 micron are presented. The remote-sensing-derived cloud optical thickness and effective radius are compared with the values inferred from nearly simultaneous in situ microphysical measurements obtained from an aircraft. A good spatial correlation is observed for both the optical thickness and effective radius, it is noted that the remote sensing has a tendency to overestimate the effective radius; the optical thickness is overestimated for small optical thicknesses and underestimated for large optical thicknesses. The marginal probability density functions of optical thickness and effective radius are derived from the remote-sensing results and discussed.

King, Michael D.↗

Performance analysis of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system algorithm with integrated avionics flight data

This paper presents the performance analysis results of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system (FINDS) using integrated avionics sensor flight data for the NASA ATOPS B-737 aircraft in a Microwave Landing System (MLS) environment. First, an overview of the FINDS algorithm structure is given. Then, aircraft state estimate time histories and statistics for the flight data sensors are discussed. This is followed by an explanation of modifications made to the detection and decision functions in FINDS to improve false alarm and failure detection performance. Next, the failure detection and false alarm performance of the FINDS algorithm are analyzed by injecting bias failures into fourteen sensor outputs over six repetitive runs of the five minutes of flight data. Results indicate that the detection speed, failure level estimation, and false alarm performance show a marked improvement over the previously reported simulation runs. In agreement with earlier results, detection speed is faster for filter measurement sensors such as MLS than for filter input sensors such as flight control accelerometers. Finally, the progress in modifications of the FINDS algorithm design to accommodate flight computer constraints is discussed.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

Polarization and the envelopes of B(e) supergiants in the Magellanic Clouds

We report optical linear polarization observations of nine B(e) supergiants in the Magellanic Clouds. Several of them have large intrinsic polarizations. The data are consistent with nonspherically symmetric envelopes, around the B(e) stars, that possess a range of intrinsic polarizations. Comparison of the polarimetric data with the viewing aspect, inferred from the spectroscopy of the individual objects, agrees with this interpretation. The polarization correlates best with the infrared excess due to dust, suggesting the latter as the cause of most of the polarization. We cannot find, using the available data, a statistically significant difference between the polarization distributions of Galactic and Magellanic B(e) stars. Comparison of our data with previous polarimetric data, recovered from the literature for four stars, seems to indicate that the envelopes are stable.

Magalhaes, A. M.↗

Electron Precipitation Parameters and Ionospheric Conductances Inferred from Auroral Images Acquired by the Visible Imaging Systems (VIS) on the Polar Spacecraft

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the polar spacecraft provided time sequences of auroral images at multiple wavelengths that yield information of auroral dynamics on a global scale with a spatial resolution of - 20 km and temporal resolution of approx. 1 minute. Time sequences of VIS images in which the aurora was highly dynamic are used to infer global maps for the electron precipitation parameters, energy flux and characteristic energies, and ionospheric conductances. The maps are inferred from the corresponding VIS images using an auroral model (Lumerzheim et al., 1987). The temporal and spatial resolution of the VIS inferred patterns are unprecedented. The inferred patterns are highly structured and vary significantly on a time scale of less than 5 minutes. These patterns can be very beneficial for global physics-based numerical models for the high-latitude ionosphere which previously had to rely on statistical models for the electron precipitation and ionospheric conductance.

Sigwarth, John B.↗

Bridging Informatics and Earth Science: a Look at Gregory Leptoukh's Contributions

With the tragic passing this year of Gregory Leptoukh, the Earth and Space Sciences community lost a tireless participant in--and advocate for--science informatics. Throughout his career at NASA, Dr. Leptoukh established a theme of bridging the gulf between the informatics and science communities. Nowhere is this more evident than his leadership in the development of Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure). Giovanni is an online tool that serves to hide the often-complex technical details of data format and structure, making science data easier to explore and use by Earth scientists. To date Giovanni has been acknowledged as a contributor in 500-odd scientific articles. In recent years, Leptoukh concentrated his efforts on multi-sensor data inter-comparison, merging and fusion. This work exposed several challenges at the intersection of data and science. One of these was the ease with which a naive user might generate spurious comparisons, a potential hazard that was the genesis of the Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor (MDSA). The MDSA uses semantic ontologies and inference rules to organize knowledge about dataset quality and other salient characteristics in order to advise users on potential caveats for comparing or merging two datasets. Recently, Leptoukh also led the development of AeroStat, an online Giovanni instance to investigate aerosols via statistics from station and satellite comparisons and merged maps of data from more than one instrument. Aerostat offers a neural net based bias adjustment to harmonize the data by removing systematic offsets between datasets before merging. These examples exhibit Leptoukh's talent for adopting advanced computer technologies in the service of making science data more accessible to researchers. In this, he set an example that is at once both vital and challenging for the ESSI community to emulate.

Source record↗

NuSTAR Measurement of the Cosmic X-ray Background in the 3–20 keV Energy Band

We present measurements of the intensity of the cosmic X-ray background (CXB) with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) telescope in the 3–20 keV energy range. Our method uses spatial modulation of the CXB signal on the NuSTAR detectors through the telescope’s side aperture. Based on the NuSTAR observations of selected extragalactic fields with a total exposure of 7 Ms, we have estimated the CXB 3–20 keV flux to be 2.8×10−11erg s−1cm−2deg−2, which is∼8 per cent higher than that measured withHEAO-1and consistent with the INTEGRAL measurement. The inferred CXB spectral shape in the3–20 keV energy band is consistent with the canonical model of Gruber et al. We demonstrate that the spatially modulated CXB signal measured by NuSTAR is not contaminated by systematic noise and is limited by photon statistics. The measured relative scatter of the CXB intensity between different sky directions is compatible with cosmic variance, which opens new possibilities for studying CXB anisotropy over the whole sky with NuSTAR.

Detectors↗

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Higdon, J. C.↗

Bayesian Framework For Bioburden Density Calculations To Perform Planetary Protection Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The planetary protection discipline aims to minimize the microbial contamination on spacecraft to prevent the inadvertent contamination of other planetary bodies, known as forward planetary protection (PP). Planetary protection probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) relies on two core methodologies-the contamination probability event tree analysis and statistical parameter estimation. Planetary protection engineers combine several techniques to estimate the bioburden present on spacecraft components. A direct assay to enumerate CFU (colony forming units) is the preferred methodology, but given a similar processing environment the bioburden present on certain components is inferred using: (1) a NASA defined bioburden estimate based upon the biological cleanliness of the manufacturing/assembly environment or (2) sampled data from a similar spacecraft component. The paper presents an empirical Bayesian framework to systematically treat bioburden estimation and its uncertainties on different levels starting with measurement procedures to combining different components to subsystems and whole spacecraft. It is shown that the Bayesian approach can effectively handle estimations and their uncertainties at different levels and produce a reliable estimate for bioburden to be used to evaluate the probability of contamination.

Seuylemezian, Arman↗

Variations in brightness temperature over cold first-year sea ice near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories

Microwave radiometric temperature T(B) profiles of first-year sea ice were obtained along 70- to 100-m traverses, with sled-mounted radiometers at 10, 18.7, 33.6, and 37 GHz and an effective spot size of 30 cm. Measurements of T(B) as a function of nadir angle were obtained at selected sites along the traverses. Snow and ice properties were recorded and correlated with the T(B) measurements to infer the effect of snow cover and ice conditions on the radiometric temperature. T(B) correlated positively with the brine volume profile in the ice at several sites, suggesting that brine volume has a strong effect on T(B) under these conditions. An overall statistical comparison of snow thickness with T(B), when compared with previously published models, suggests that the effect of snow cover on the microwave transmission coefficient of the snow/ice interface may be an important contribution to the radiometric temperature at these frequencies. A model is proposed to explain the data.

Lohanick, A. W.↗

Estimating the instabilities of N clocks by means of comparison measurements

The estimation of individual instabilities of N clocks, compared by measuring the differences of their readings, is considered without assuming a priori any hypotheses on their uncorrelation. Instabilities of the N clocks are described by a complete (non-diagonal) N x N covariance matrix R. Only differences of clock readings are available in order to estimate R. Statistical processing of these data allows one to calculate the (N-1)x(N-l) covariance matrix S of the differences relative to the N-th(reference) clock. By analyzing the relationships tying R and S, several pieces of information can be inferred and, in particular, the conditions for the validity of the uncorrelation hypothesis are established. The estimation of R from S is not unique: in any case R must be positive definite. A theorem states that R is positive definite if and only if its determinant is positive. Nevertheless infinitely many acceptable choices of R still fulfill the condition of positive definiteness. This paper shows that, by increasing the number N of compared clocks, the amount of arbitrariness in estimating R is reduced. The analysis of some experimental data illustrates the capability of the method.

Premoli, Amedeo↗

X ray emission from relativistic jets in AGNs and statistical implications

Calculations of the Compton scattering interaction between an ultrarelativistic jet and a thermal radiation field, in an Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), are presented. This process can be effective in decelerating ultrarelativistic jets that are accelerated by electromagnetic or hydromagnetic forces closer in to the central black hole. A narrow distribution of terminal Lorentz factors gamma sub infinity, consistent with the values inferred in superluminal radio sources, arises naturally in this model. The hard X-ray component detected in the spectra of 3C273 and several BL Lac objects may be due to the inverse Compton radiation produced in the course of the initial deceleration of their relativistic jets. The requirement that the luminosity of the hard X-ray component must exceed the total power in the associated jet is considered.

Melia, Fulvio↗