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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

FilDReaMS: II. Application to the analysis of the relative orientations between filaments and the magnetic field in four Herschel fields

Context. Both simulations and observations of the interstellar medium show that the study of the relative orientations between filamentary structures and the magnetic field can bring new insight into the role played by magnetic fields in the formation and evolution of filaments and in the process of star formation. Aims. We provide a first application of FilDReaMS, the new method presented in the companion paper to detect and analyze filaments in a given image. The method relies on a template that has the shape of a rectangular bar with variable width. Our goal is to investigate the relative orientations between the detected filaments and the magnetic field. Methods. We apply FilDReaMS to a small sample of four Herschel fields (G210, G300, G82, G202) characterized by different Galactic environments and different evolutionary stages. First, we look for the most prevalent bar widths, and we examine the networks formed by filaments of different bar widths as well as their hierarchical organization. Second, we compare the filament orientations to the magnetic field orientation inferred from Planck polarization data and, for the first time, we study the statistics of the relative orientation angle as functions of both spatial scale and H2 column density. Results. We find preferential relative orientations in the four Herschel fields: small filaments with low column densities tend to be slightly more parallel than perpendicular to the magnetic field; in contrast, large filaments, which all have higher column densities, are oriented nearly perpendicular (or, in the case of G202, more nearly parallel) to the magnetic field. In the two nearby fields (G210 and G300), we observe a transition from mostly parallel to mostly perpendicular relative orientations at an H 2 column density ≃ 1.1 × 10 21 cm -2 and 1.4 × 10 21 cm -2 , respectively, consistent with the results of previous studies. Conclusions. Our results confirm the existence of a coupling between magnetic fields at cloud scales and filaments at smaller scale. They also illustrate the potential of combining Herschel and Planck observations, and they call for further statistical analyses with our dedicated method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal Analysis Of Products Statistical Analysis Processing

Temporal analysis of products statistical analysis package (tapsap) is a package for reading, cleaning, analyzing and making inference of temporal analysis of products (TAP) information. This package is designed with the intent for collaboration within the TAP community for advancing TAP analysis.

Kunz, MatthewR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Indicators of the Performance of Large Language Models

In several mission contexts, it is desirable to estimate the performance of large language models (LLMs) on tasks that we cannot run directly. In light of published “scaling laws” our hypothesis is that some tasks should be consistently more challenging than others based on characteristics of the task. The goal of this project was to begin quantifying how much information about LLM performance can be gained from the features of a model and a task. Two of our statistical models struggled to converge. Pass/fail test results may provide limited information for inference beyond model quality and task difficulty, but we see no evidence at this time for significant feature interaction effect sizes, arguing for simple models. Future work extending the models to capitalize on perplexity of ground truth answers is suggested. This project also introduces “Depth of Knowledge Variant Testing” as a strategy for more finely assessing language models on open domain question and answer tasks. We developed sets of questions that ask a language model to produce similar information while demonstrating increasing depth of knowledge, and also relabeled existing Q&A test questions with their depth of knowledge. Our results suggest further consideration of Bloom’s taxonomy and further refinement of prompts to properly elicit information at varying depths. In the course of this work, we set up a basic infrastructure for standardizing tasks and testing many language models on these tasks. In addition to testing the predictive quality of model features and performance across test suites, with this project we have introduced two new task features to contextualize each test question: the Dewey Classification main category of information covered, and the Bloom’s taxonomy level that corresponds to the depth of knowledge probed by the question. Splits across these and other features produced over five hundred task subtypes with distinct feature vectors, which we tested on half a dozen models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the fusion yield dependencies in OMEGA DT-layered implosion experiments using a physics-based statistical mapping model

Improving the performance of inertial confinement fusion implosions requires physics models that can accurately predict the response to changes in the experimental inputs. Good predictive capability has been demonstrated for the fusion yield using a statistical mapping of simulated outcomes to experimental data [Gopalaswamy et al., Nature 565(771), 581–586 (2019)]. In this paper, a physics-based statistical mapping approach is used to extract and quantify all the major sources of degradation of fusion yield for direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser. Here, the yield is found to be dependent on the age of the deuterium tritium fill, the ℓ = 1 asymmetry in the implosion core, the laser beam-to-target size ratio, and parameters related to the hydrodynamic stability. A controlled set of experiments were carried out where only the target fill age was varied while keeping all other parameters constant. The measurements were found to be in excellent agreement with the fill age dependency inferred using the mapping model. In addition, a new implosion design was created, guided by the statistical mapping model by optimizing the trade-offs between increased laser energy coupling at larger target size and the degradations caused by the laser beam-to-target size ratio and hydrodynamic instabilities. When experimentally performed, an increased fusion yield was demonstrated in targets with larger diameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconstructing gravity on cosmological scales

We present the data-driven late-time reconstruction of gravitational theories and dark energy models on cosmological scales. We showcase the power of present cosmological probes at constraining these models and quantify the knowledge of their properties that can be acquired through state of the art data. This reconstruction exploits the power of the effective field theory approach to dark energy and modified gravity phenomenology, which compresses the freedom in defining such models into a finite set of functions that can be reconstructed across cosmic times using cosmological data. We consider several model classes described within this framework and thoroughly discuss their phenomenology and data implications. In this work, we find that some models can alleviate the present discrepancy in the determination of the Hubble constant as inferred from the cosmic microwave background and as directly measured. This results in a statistically significant preference for the reconstructed theories over the standard cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for high explosive reactant and product equations of state

Equations of state (EOSs) are typically represented as physics-informed models with tunable parameters that are adjusted to replicate calibration data as closely as possible. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) allows for the development of an ensemble of EOS parameters that are consistent with the calibration data instead of a single EOS. In this work, we perform UQ for the reactant and product EOSs for a variety of high explosives (HEs). In doing so, we demonstrate a strategy for dealing with heterogeneous (both experimental and calculated) data. We also use a statistical distance metric to quantify the differences between the various HEs using the UQ results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avalanche statistics of fluctuation-induced fluxes from the SLPM and the W7-AS stellarator

Measurements of fluctuating floating potentials and ion saturation currents at different radial locations in the Santander Linear Plasma Machine (Castellanos et al 2005 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion47 2067) and at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator by means of radially movable Langmuir probes allow to infer the corresponding fluctuation-induced radial flux temporal series. Avalanche-like transport events are identified in the time series and statistically characterized in terms of avalanche size/duration/quiet-time distributions and size-duration scaling relations. Transport is diffusive in the inner and intermediate radial region of the SLPM r < r tr ≈ 2.6 cm, undergoing a transition at r tr , becoming non-diffusive in the outermost region of the device, r > r tr . Here, the results obtained at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator are similar to those found in SLPM for r > r tr , i.e. consistent with what would be expected for scale-free, self-similar plasma transport dynamics near a critical state.

Avalanches↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imaging systematics and clustering of DESI main targets

ABSTRACT We evaluate the impact of imaging systematics on the clustering of luminous red galaxies (LRG), emission-line galaxies (ELG), and quasars (QSO) targeted for the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Using Data Release 7 of the DECam Legacy Survey, we study the effects of astrophysical foregrounds, stellar contamination, differences between north galactic cap and south galactic cap measurements, and variations in imaging depth, stellar density, galactic extinction, seeing, airmass, sky brightness, and exposure time before presenting survey masks and weights to mitigate these effects. With our sanitized samples in hand, we conduct a preliminary analysis of the clustering amplitude and evolution of the DESI main targets. From measurements of the angular correlation functions, we determine power law fits $r_0 = 7.78 \pm 0.26\, h^{-1}$Mpc, γ = 1.98 ± 0.02 for LRGs and $r_0 = 5.45 \pm 0.1\, h^{-1}$Mpc, γ = 1.54 ± 0.01 for ELGs. Additionally, from the angular power spectra, we measure the linear biases and model the scale-dependent biases in the weakly non-linear regime. Both sets of clustering measurements show good agreement with survey requirements for LRGs and ELGs, attesting that these samples will enable DESI to achieve precise cosmological constraints. We also present clustering as a function of magnitude, use cross-correlations with external spectroscopy to infer dN/dz and measure clustering as a function of luminosity, and probe higher order clustering statistics through counts-in-cells moments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time event reconstruction for Nuclear Physics Experiments using Artificial Intelligence

Charged track reconstruction is a critical task in nuclear physics experiments, enabling the identification and analysis of particles produced in high-energy collisions. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for this purpose, addressing the challenges posed by complex detector geometries, high event multiplicities, and noisy data. Traditional methods rely on pattern recognition algorithms like the Kalman filter, but ML techniques, such as neural networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), offer improved accuracy and scalability. By learning from simulated and real detector data, ML models can identify and classify tracks, predict trajectories, and handle ambiguities caused by overlapping or missing hits. Moreover, ML-based approaches can process data in near-real-time, enhancing the efficiency of experiments at large-scale facilities like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Jefferson Lab (JLAB). As detector technologies and computational resources evolve, ML-driven charged track reconstruction continues to push the boundaries of precision and discovery in nuclear physics. In these proceedings, we highlight advancements in charged track identification leveraging Artificial Intelligence within the CLAS12 detector, achieving a notable enhancement in experimental statistics compared to traditional methods. Additionally, we showcase real-time event reconstruction capabilities, including the inference of charged particle properties, such as momentum, direction, and species identification, at speeds matching data acquisition rates. These innovations enable the extraction of physics observables directly from the experiment in real-time.

Gavalian, Gagik (ORCID:0000000267385457)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗