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At least 217 records · Page 12

Machine-learning-assisted high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage optimization

High-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) has the potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of the net-zero carbon economy, given its capability to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to co-optimize the performance metrics of HT-RTES by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Further, neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Estimation of optical flow in airborne electro-optical sensors by stochastic approximation

The essence of motion or range estimation by passive electrooptical means is the ability to determine the correspondence of picture elements in pairs of image frames and to estimate their coordinates and their disparity (relative shifts) in the image plane of an electrooptical imaging sensor. The disparity can be in successive frames due to self-motion or in simultaneous frames of a stereo pair. A key issue is to provide these estimates on-line. This paper describes the theoretical background of such an interframe shift estimator. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm, specifically implementing a form of stochastic approximation, which can achieve rapid convergence of the shift estimate. Analytical and numerical simulation examples for random texture and isolated features validate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the estimator.

Merhav, S. J.↗

Conservative tightly-coupled simulations of stochastic multiscale systems

Multiphysics problems often involve components whose macroscopic dynamics is driven by microscopic random fluctuations. The fidelity of simulations of such systems depends on their ability to propagate these random fluctuations throughout a computational domain, including subdomains represented by deterministic solvers. When the constituent processes take place in nonoverlapping subdomains, system behavior can be modeled via a domain-decomposition approach that couples separate components at the interfaces between these subdomains. Its coupling algorithm has to maintain a stable and efficient numerical time integration even at high noise strength. We propose a conservative domain-decomposition algorithm in which tight coupling is achieved by employing either Picard's or Newton's iterative method. Coupled diffusion equations, one of which has a Gaussian white-noise source term, provide a computational testbed for analysis of these two coupling strategies. Fully-converged (“implicit”) coupling with Newton's method typically outperforms its Picard counterpart, especially at high noise levels. This is because the number of Newton iterations scales linearly with the amplitude of the Gaussian noise, while the number of Picard iterations can scale superlinearly. At large time intervals between two subsequent inter-solver communications, the solution error for single-iteration (“explicit”) Picard's coupling can be several orders of magnitude higher than that for implicit coupling. Increasing the explicit coupling's communication frequency reduces this difference, but the resulting increase in computational cost can make it less efficient than implicit coupling at similar levels of solution error, depending on the communication frequency of the latter and the noise strength. This trend carries over into higher dimensions, although at high noise strength explicit coupling may be the only computationally viable option.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic Simulation with on the fly Doppler Broadening treatment in RMC

In conventional transient analysis, thermal hydraulics calculations are generally coupled to deterministic neutronics solvers. Due to the limited accuracy of deterministic methods and the rapid development of computer power, Monte Carlo neutronics calculations have received increasing attention nowadays. One of challenges for Monte Carlo methods coupled to thermal hydraulics calculations is the temperature dependent cross sections. Taking the detailed temperature distribution feedback into account, each nuclide may be in a large range of temperatures, pre-generated libraries at every temperature point are no longer applicable owing to unaffordable memory footprint. Different solutions have been proposed to deal with this problem. TMS, accounting for Doppler broadening effect by the explicit treatment of thermal motion, was used to model fast transients in Serpent 2. Stochastic mixing, using two sets of libraries for each nuclide and mixing them to get the correct temperature, was used in transient analysis by Sjenitzer and Hoogenboom. Besides, there are other on the fly Doppler broadening methods being developed, including series expansion of cross sections, multipole representation, different integration algorithms based on Doppler broadening equation. In this paper, on the fly Doppler broadening treatment based on integration algorithms was applied to transient calculation in Reactor Monte Carlo code RMC . In the following section, the integration algorithms implemented and dynamic simulation method in RMC is briefly introduced. Finally, a pure physical transient fuel assembly model was chosen for numerical validation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Finite element formulation of fluctuating hydrodynamics for fluids filled with rigid particles using boundary fitted meshes

In this paper, we present a finite element implementation of fluctuating hydrodynamics with a moving boundary fitted mesh for treating the suspended particles. The thermal fluctuations are incorporated into the continuum equations using the Landau and Lifshitz approach [1]. The proposed implementation fulfills the fluctuation–dissipation theorem exactly at the discrete level. Since we restrict the equations to the creeping flow case, this takes the form of a relation between the diffusion coefficient matrix and friction matrix both at the particle and nodal level of the finite elements. Brownian motion of arbitrarily shaped particles in complex confinements can be considered within the present formulation. A multi-step time integration scheme is developed to correctly capture the drift term required in the stochastic differential equation (SDE) describing the evolution of the positions of the particles. The proposed approach is validated by simulating the Brownian motion of a sphere between two parallel plates and the motion of a spherical particle in a cylindrical cavity. The time integration algorithm and the fluctuating hydrodynamics implementation are then applied to study the diffusion and the equilibrium probability distribution of a confined circle under an external harmonic potential.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Benchmark Solutions for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Inhomogeneous Material Statistics

Accurately solving implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) thermal photon transport problems with mixed material cells is important in realistic applications. The production IMC package at LLNL treats mixed material cells arising from ALE remap and hydrodynamics using the same approximate model. The new Imp IMC thermal photon transport package currently under development has both a material interface reconstruction (MIR) algorithm and a Levermore-Pomraning (LP) stochastic medium algorithm for treating mixed material cells. Existing stochastic medium algorithms for treating mixed material cells in IMC lack a complete theoretical basis. The IMC LP algorithm implementation has been demonstrated to reproduce published deterministic LP solutions for the particular case of spatially homogeneous material statistics. Realistic simulations will include spatially inhomogeneous material statistics (material mean chord lengths). In a previous investigation, the LP-model for transport in binary stochastic media in rod geometry was generalized to accommodate spatially varying material chord lengths, i.e., the mixing statistics were allowed to be nonhomogeneous. Analytical solutions were obtained and used to produce a verifi cation suite for the Imp IMC Levermore-Pomraning implementation for different spatial variations of the chord lengths. However, the accuracy of the LP model when the mixing statistics are nonhomogeneous has not been assessed and leaves open the question of whether local accuracy is improved or further degraded when chord lengths are not uniform. This shortcoming is rectifi ed here by developing benchmark analytic solutions for transport in binary Markovian stochastic mixtures in rod geometry with nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, using spatially varying chord lengths considered in the previous investigation based on the LP model. Methods for sampling a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) are first described and used to construct individual realizations of the binary mixtures in rod geometry. Analytic solutions are then obtained for the forward and backward directed fluxes on a given realization, now viewed as a deterministic medium with alternating layers of the two materials with known interface locations. Finally, material averaged scalar fluxes are obtained using these sampling schemes with spatially linear and quadratic chord lengths and used to assess the accuracy of the previously obtained LP-model results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncontrolled Learning: Codesign of Neuromorphic Hardware Topology for Neuromorphic Algorithms

Neuromorphic computing has the potential to revolutionize future technologies and our understanding of intelligence, yet it remains challenging to realize in practice. The learning-from-mistakes algorithm, inspired by the brain's simple learning rules of inhibition and pruning, is one of the few brain-like training methods. This algorithm is implemented in neuromorphic memristive hardware through a codesign process that evaluates essential hardware trade-offs. While the algorithm effectively trains small networks as binary classifiers and perceptrons, performance declines significantly with increasing network size unless the hardware is tailored to the algorithm. This work investigates the trade-offs between depth, controllability, and capacity—the number of learnable patterns—in neuromorphic hardware. This highlights the importance of topology and governing equations, providing theoretical tools to evaluate a device's computational capacity based on its measurements and circuit structure. The findings show that breaking neural network symmetry enhances both controllability and capacity. Additionally, by pruning the circuit, neuromorphic algorithms in all-memristive circuits can utilize stochastic resources to create local contrasts in network weights. Through combined experimental and simulation efforts, the parameters are identified that enable networks to exhibit emergent intelligence from simple rules, advancing the potential of neuromorphic computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Easy Algorithm to Generate Colored Noise Sequences

The need for accurate and efficient simulation of the noise background arises in statistical significance tests for periodic signals buried in colored noise. This paper discusses techniques for generating colored-noise sequences which simulate processes with a given spectral density. Matlab routines based on the fast fractional difference algorithm are presented. These routines can create various stochastic models (e.g., first-order autoregressive (AR(1)), power law (PL), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average ((1, d, 0)), and generalized Gauss Markov (GGM)) that serve as possible candidate null hypotheses to test against in various scenarios. Allan variance and power spectral density (PSD) show that our algorithms are accurate and efficient, and can be easily implemented for stationary noise models and non-stationary PLs with spectral indices up to 2. Our algorithms can also be extended to produce a non-stationary PL with a range-limited steeper PSD (spectral indices up to about 4) using a GGM approximation with a proper break frequency. The red-noise leakage effect on the periodogram is further discussed. The result shows that our GGM approximation has a potential for alleviating the red-noise leakage in the PSD estimates. The Timmer and Koenig procedure is also included for comparison.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements. Here, future work can leverage the algorithm as part of a stochastic optimization of electric grid operations with high-penetration PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quasi-Stochastic Approximation and Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

The Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation algorithm is a foundation of many algorithmic frameworks for reinforcement learning and often an efficient approach to solving (or approximating the solution to) complex optimal control problems. In many cases, however, practitioners are unable to apply these techniques because of an inherent high variance. This paper aims to provide a general foundation for 'quasi-stochastic approximation,' in which all of the processes under consideration are deterministic, much like quasi-Monte Carlo for variance reduction in simulation. The variance reduction can be substantial, subject to tuning of pertinent parameters in the algorithm. This paper introduces a new coupling argument to establish the optimal rate of convergence provided the gain is sufficiently large. These results are established for linear models and tested also in nonideal settings. A major application of these general results is a new class of reinforcement learning algorithms for deterministic state space models. In this setting, the main contribution is a class of algorithms for approximating the value function for a given policy, using a different policy designed to introduce exploration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Output Feedback Stabilization for a Class of Multi-Variable Bilinear Stochastic Systems with Stochastic Coupling Attenuation

In this paper, stochastic coupling attenuation is investigated for a class of multi-variable bilinear stochastic systems and a novel output feedback m-block backstepping controller with linear estimator is designed, where gradient descent optimization is used to tune the design parameters of the controller. It has been shown that the trajectories of the closed-loop stochastic systems are bounded in probability sense and the stochastic coupling of the system outputs can be effectively attenuated by the proposed control algorithm. Moreover, the stability of the stochastic systems is analyzed and the effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a simulated example.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

In silico prediction of toxicity of non-congeneric industrial chemicals using ensemble learning based modeling approaches

Ensemble learning approach based decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) models are introduced in order to establish quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) for the prediction of toxicity of 1450 diverse chemicals. Eight non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals was evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index. Stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms supplemented DTB and DTF models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the toxicity end-point in T. pyriformis. Special attention was drawn to prediction ability and robustness of the models, investigated both in external and 10-fold cross validation processes. In complete data, optimal DTB and DTF models rendered accuracies of 98.90%, 98.83% in two-category and 98.14%, 98.14% in four-category toxicity classifications. Both the models further yielded classification accuracies of 100% in external toxicity data of T. pyriformis. The constructed regression models (DTB and DTF) using five descriptors yielded correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}) of 0.945, 0.944 between the measured and predicted toxicities with mean squared errors (MSEs) of 0.059, and 0.064 in complete T. pyriformis data. The T. pyriformis regression models (DTB and DTF) applied to the external toxicity data sets yielded R{sup 2} and MSE values of 0.637, 0.655; 0.534, 0.507 (marine bacteria) and 0.741, 0.691; 0.155, 0.173 (algae). The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting toxicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. These approaches provide useful strategy and robust tools in the screening of ecotoxicological risk or environmental hazard potential of chemicals. - Graphical abstract: Importance of input variables in DTB and DTF classification models for (a) two-category, and (b) four-category toxicity intervals in T. pyriformis data. Generalization and predictive abilities of the constructed (c) DTB and (d) DTF regression models to predict the T. pyriformis toxicity of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Ensemble learning (EL) based models constructed for toxicity prediction of chemicals • Predictive models used a few simple non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors. • EL-based DTB/DTF models successfully discriminated toxic and non-toxic chemicals. • DTB/DTF regression models precisely predicted toxicity of chemicals in multi-species. • Proposed EL based models can be used as tool to predict toxicity of new chemicals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stochastic microstructural analysis of ceramic matrix composites using a high-fidelity multiscale framework

This paper presents a high-fidelity multiscale framework to simulate the mechanical behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), accounting for the complex micromorphology captured using detailed material characterization. First, high-resolution micrographs are obtained for the specific carbon fiber silicon-carbide-nitride matrix (C/SiNC) CMC to characterize the variability of the architectural features and manufacturing-induced defects at the microscale. An image processing algorithm is then used to precisely estimate the size and distribution of all subscale features and defects from the micrographs. The information is then used to generate a three-dimensional stochastic representative volume element (SRVE) to reconstruct microscale constituents accounting for the variability. As a result, the generated SRVEs are simulated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) micromechanics theory to investigate the effects of defects on the elastic properties of C/SiNC CMCs.

Ceramic Matrix Composites↗

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hierarchical fractional-step approximations and parallel kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in spatially distributed, non-equilibrium physiochemical processes with complex chemistry and transport micro-mechanisms. Rather than focusing on constructing exactly the stochastic trajectories, our approach relies on approximating the evolution of observables, such as density, coverage, correlations and so on. More specifically, we develop a spatial domain decomposition of the Markov operator (generator) that describes the evolution of all observables according to the kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm. This domain decomposition corresponds to a decomposition of the Markov generator into a hierarchy of operators and can be tailored to specific hierarchical parallel architectures such as multi-core processors or clusters of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). Based on this operator decomposition, we formulate parallel Fractional step kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms by employing the Trotter Theorem and its randomized variants; these schemes, (a) are partially asynchronous on each fractional step time-window, and (b) are characterized by their communication schedule between processors. The proposed mathematical framework allows us to rigorously justify the numerical and statistical consistency of the proposed algorithms, showing the convergence of our approximating schemes to the original serial KMC. The approach also provides a systematic evaluation of different processor communicating schedules. We carry out a detailed benchmarking of the parallel KMC schemes using available exact solutions, for example, in Ising-type systems and we demonstrate the capabilities of the method to simulate complex spatially distributed reactions at very large scales on GPUs. Finally, we discuss work load balancing between processors and propose a re-balancing scheme based on probabilistic mass transport methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive Algebraic Multigrid for Finite Element Elliptic Equations with Random Coefficients

This thesis presents a two-grid algorithm based on Smoothed Aggregation Spectral Element Agglomeration Algebraic Multigrid (SA-ρAMGe) combined with adaptation. The aim is to build an efficient solver for the linear systems arising from discretization of second-order elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) with stochastic coefficients. Examples include PDEs that model subsurface flow with random permeability field. During a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation process, that draws PDE coefficient samples from a certain distribution, the PDE coefficients change, hence the resulting linear systems to be solved change. At every such step the system (discretized PDE) needs to be solved and the computed solution used to evaluate some functional(s) of interest that then determine if the coefficient sample is acceptable or not. The MCMC process is hence computationally intensive and requires the solvers used to be efficient and fast. This fact that at every step of MCMC the resulting linear system changes, makes an already existing solver built for the old problem perhaps not as efficient for the problem corresponding to the new sampled coefficient. This motivates the main goal of our study, namely, to adapt an already existing solver to handle the problem (with changed coefficient) with the objective to achieve this goal to be faster and more efficient than building a completely new solver from scratch. Our approach utilizes the local element matrices (for the problem with changed coefficients) to build local problems associated with constructed by the method agglomerated elements (a set of subdomains that cover the given computational domain). We solve a generalized eigenproblem for each set in a subspace spanned by the previous local coarse space (used for the old solver) and a vector, component of the error, that the old solver cannot handle. A portion of the spectrum of these local eigen-problems (corresponding to eigenvalues close to zero) form the coarse basis used to define the new two-level method of our interest. We illustrate the performance of this adaptive two-level procedure with a large set of numerical experiments that demonstrate its efficiency over building the solvers from scratch.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗