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At least 217 records · Page 12

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropospheric ozone and aerosol variability observed at high latitudes with an airborne lidar

Large-scale summertime (July-August) distributions of O3 and aerosols were observed in a broad range of atmosphere conditions over the tundra, ice, and ocean regions near Alaska in 1988 and over the lowlands and boreal forests of Canada in 1990. The tropospheric O3 budget in the high-latitude regions was found to be strongly influenced by stratospheric intrusions, and deposition at the surface was found to be the main sink for O3 in the troposphere. Enhanced levels of O3 were observed in plumes from fires in Alaska and Canada. This paper discusses the large-scale variability of O3 and aerosols observed in the high-latitude regions during these field experiments.

Browell, Edward V.↗

Airborne measurements of tropospheric ozone destruction and particulate bromide formation in the Arctic

Aircraft profiles of O3 concentrations over the Arctic ice pack in spring exhibit a depletion of O3 beneath the surface temperature inversion. One such profile from the NOAA WP-3D Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP) flights in April, 1986 north of Alert, NWT (YLT, 82.5 N) is shown. The gradient of O3 across the temperature inversion, which is essentially a step function from tropospheric values (35 to 40 ppbv) to 0, is somewhat masked by a 1-min running mean applied to the data. Evidence is presented that O3 destruction beneath the Arctic temperature inversion is the result of a photochemical reaction between gaseous Br compounds and O3 to produce particulate Br aerosol. It is noted that in springtime, O3 at the Alert Baseline Station regularly decreases from 30 to 40 ppbv to near 0 over the period of a few hours to a day. At the same time, there is a production of particulate Br with a near 1.0 anti-correlation to O3 concentration. Surface concentrations of bromoform in the Arctic exhibit a rapid decrease following polar sunrise. AGASP aircraft measurements of filterable bromine particulates in the Arctic (March-April, 1983 and 1986) are shown. The greatest concentrations of Br aerosol (shown as enrichment factors relative to to Na in seawater, EFBR (Na)) were observed in samples collected beneath the surface temperature inversion over ice. Samples collected at the same altitude over open ocean (off Spitzbergen) labeled Marine did not exhibit similar Br enrichments. A second region of particulate Br enrichment was observed in the lower stratosphere, which regularly descends to below 500 mb (5.5 km) in the high Arctic. The NOAA WP-3D flew in the stratosphere on all AGASP flights and occasionally measured O3 concentrations in excess of 300 ppbv.

Schnell, Russell C.↗

Tropospheric ozone at 45 deg S

In August of 1986 a program was initiated to measure atmospheric ozone profiles at mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere by flying ECC ozonesondes on a regular basis from the DSIR Physical Sciences Atmospheric Laboratory at Lauder, New Zealand, 45 deg S. Flights since that time have been performed on a regular basis at the rate of two flights per week during the 5 month period August to December, the time of maximum variability at mid-latitudes, and once per week for the remainder of the year. These data, consisting now of more than 400 profiles has been analyzed and the free troposphere portion of the profiles binned as 1km slabs. These data have been combined to form a seasonal average values for each season of each year in 2 km slabs and the variation observed in these seasonal averages is the basis of this paper. A biennial component is apparent in these data and the lack of any increasing trend over this 5 year period is contrasted with that measured at similar latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere over the same period.

Matthews, W. Andrew↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends

Current data on ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual, and interannual time scales were used for a standard trend-prediction analysis. Using the results of this analysis, together with a quantitative theory that defines the 'effectively sampled region' for an observing station, a definition was developed for a global network capable of determining ozone climatology and ozone trends with uncertainties not above 1 percent per year at the 95 percent confidence level. The definition indicates a need for at least a doubling of the present number of stations; the areas where more stations are most needed include the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America. It is pointed out that differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and, hence, potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than the ozonesondes; however, the differential-absorption lidar ozone measurements may produce a biased data set above the cloud base.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗

Measurements of lower tropospheric ozone at mid-latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere

Ground-based measurements of ozone have been carried out at three stations in the German alps (47 deg N, 11 deg E, altitudes 740, 1776, and 2962 m a.s.l.) as well as at the coastal station Cape Point (34 deg S, 18 deg E). For the mountain sites (at 1776 and 2962 m), trend calculations based on monthly means have yielded O3 growth rates of 0.8 and 0.9 ppbv yr(exp -1), respectively, over the period 1978-91. Seasonally differentiated data sets have yielded higher rates for summer than for winter. The impact of near-ground photochemical O3 production on the observed O3 concentration is shown. No significant long-term O3 trend has been observed at 740 m (valley floor) as well as at the southern hemispheric station Cape Point. Evidence exists for a close relationship between the amplitude variations of the annual cycles of O3 and CO at Cape Point.

Scheel, Hans-Eckhart↗

Tropospheric ozone measurements at the equatorial region (1980-1988)

Results from surface ozone measurements at Penang (5.5 deg N, 100 deg E) over 1980-88 period are presented. The study indicates the ozone concentrations undergoing significant diurnal and seasonal variations. The peak concentration are observed at around mid-day (up to 35 nb) but the O3 concentration generally drops to zero level in the early evening and remains unchanged until mid-morning. Monthly-averaged daily 1-h average concentrations are generally small (4-13 nb) and decrease continually from the early part of the year to the end. Frequently, varying local weather conditions seem to influence the O3 concentrations.

Ilyas, Mohammad↗

Comparison and analysis of aircraft measurements and mesoscale atmospheric chemistry model simulations of tropospheric ozone

The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) has been applied to several of the field experiments which were part of the Acid Models Operational and Diagnostic Evaluation Study (Acid MODES). The experiment which was of particular interest with regards to ozone photochemistry involved horizontal zig-zag flight patterns (ZIPPER) over an area from the eastern Ohio River valley to the Adirondacks of New York. Model simulations by both the standard resolution RADM (delta x = 80 km) and the nested grid RADM (delta x = 26.7 km) compare well to measurements in the low emission regions in central Pennsylvania and upstate New York, but underestimate in the high emission upper Ohio River valley. The nested simulation does considerably better, however, than the coarse grid simulation in terms of horizontal pattern and concentration magnitudes. Analysis of NO(x) and HO(x) concentrations and photochemical products rates of ozone show that the model's response to large point source emissions is very unsystematic both spatially and temporally. This is due to the models instability to realistically simulate the small scale (subgrid) gradients in precursor concentrations in and around large point source plumes.

Pleim, Jonathan E.↗

An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

John, Kuruvilla↗

Tropospheric Ozone Near-Nadir-Viewing IR Spectral Sensitivity and Ozone Measurements from NAST-I

Infrared ozone spectra from near nadir observations have provided atmospheric ozone information from the sensor to the Earth's surface. Simulations of the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (approximately 20 km altitude) with a spectral resolution of 0.25/cm were used for sensitivity analysis. The spectral sensitivity of ozone retrievals to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and water vapor is assessed in order to understand the relationship between the IR emissions and the atmospheric state. In addition, ozone spectral radiance sensitivity to its ozone layer densities and radiance weighting functions reveals the limit of the ozone profile retrieval accuracy from NAST-I measurements. Statistical retrievals of ozone with temperature and moisture retrievals from NAST-I spectra have been investigated and the preliminary results from NAST-I field campaigns are presented.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

Study of Tropospheric Ozone and UV Reflectivity Using TOMS Data

Perhaps the single most important result from the study of Chuang and Yung is that the interannual variability of the Earth's albedo (especially in Spring) on land is dominated by snow/ice, and not by clouds. This interannual variability could be the major driver of changes in the atmosphere and the biosphere. It is plausible that the interannual variability of snow/ice, through interactions with the atmosphere and biosphere, is responsible for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2. By carefully studying the albedo variations off the Peru coast, we found evidence for indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Based on a detailed analysis of the cloud data obtained by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (SCCP) in the years 1983-1991, we show that besides the reported 3 % variation in global cloudiness, the global mean cloud optical thickness (MCOT) also has significant variation which is out of phase with that of the global cloudiness. The combined effect of the two opposing variations may be a null effect on the cloud reflectivity. These results are consistent with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) reflectively measurements. The MCOT variation is further shown to be correlated with both the solar cycle and the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle. Our present analysis cannot distinguish which of the above two provides better correlation, although independent data from the High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) from 1990 to 1996 favor the solar cycle. Future data are needed to identify the true cause of these changes.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

Parametric Analyses of Potential Effects on Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry by a Fleet of Supersonic Business Jets Projected in a 2020 Atmosphere

A class of new supersonic aircraft for business purposes is currently under consideration for use starting around 2015 to 2020. These aircraft, which can accommodate about 12 to 13 passengers, will fly at a speed of Mach 1.6 to 2 and are commonly termed as Supersonic Business Jets (SSBJs). A critical issue that needs to be addressed during the conception phase of such aircraft is the potential impact of emissions from such aircraft on the atmosphere especially on stratospheric ozone. Although these SSBJs will be much smaller in size and will have smaller engines than the hypothetical fleets of commercial passenger High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft that we have studied previously, they will still emit nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O) and sulfur, the latter if it is still in the fuel. Thus, it is important to design these SSBJs in a manner so that a projected fleet of these aircraft will not have a significant effect on ozone or on climate. This report analyzes the potential impact of a fleet of SSBJs in a set of parametric analyses that examine the envelope of potential effects on ozone over a range of total fuel burns, emission indices of nitrogen oxides (E.I.(NOx)), and cruise altitudes, using the current version of the UIUC zonally-averaged two-dimensional model of the global atmosphere.

Wey, Chowen↗