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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Effects of Departure and Flight Time Uncertainty on Urban Air Mobility Operations

Demand capacity balancing is a key mechanism for maintaining safe and efficient Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. However, uncertainties such as departure delays and flight time variation may reduce the effectiveness of algorithms used for balancing and detrimentally impact the safety and efficiency of UAM operations. In this paper, the effects of these uncertainties on UAM operations are quantified by modeling a distribution of departure and flight time errors. A route network in the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area was used to simulate traffic demand with and without uncertainty. Simulations were conducted with three main models of uncertainty – first uncertainty in departure time delay resulting in late takeoffs, second with uncertainty in flight times in addition to departure delays, and finally, uncertainty in departure times that cause either late or early takeoffs. Each of these simulations were performed using varied standard deviations to fully understand the effects of uncertainties. Results from these simulations were compared to a baseline simulation using the same parameters, but without any uncertainty. The results suggest that both safety and efficiency are significantly impacted by uncertainty even with relatively low uncertainty introduced. These results work towards quantifying the effects of uncertainty in flight scheduling for UAM. They will also aid in the further development of the demand capacity balancing algorithms for UAM operations and associated air traffic management.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Effects of Departure and Flight Time Uncertainty on Urban Air Mobility Operations

Demand capacity balancing is a key mechanism for maintaining safe and efficient Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. However, uncertainties such as departure delays and flight time variation may reduce the effectiveness of algorithms used for balancing and detrimentally impact the safety and efficiency of UAM operations. In this paper, the effects of these uncertainties on UAM operations are quantified by modeling a distribution of departure and flight time errors. A route network in the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area was used to simulate traffic demand with and without uncertainty. Simulations were conducted with three main models of uncertainty – first uncertainty in departure time delay resulting in late takeoffs, second with uncertainty in flight times in addition to departure delays, and finally, uncertainty in departure times that cause either late or early takeoffs. Each of these simulations were performed using varied standard deviations to fully understand the effects of uncertainties. Results from these simulations were compared to a baseline simulation using the same parameters, but without any uncertainty. The results suggest that both safety and efficiency are significantly impacted by uncertainty even with relatively low uncertainty introduced. These results work towards quantifying the effects of uncertainty in flight scheduling for UAM. They will also aid in the further development of the demand capacity balancing algorithms for UAM operations and associated air traffic management.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimating the Rate of Occurrence of Renal Stones in Astronauts

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidence of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question "How much does this risk change with space flight?" remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone presentation. The modeling process utilizes a Population Balance Equation based model developed in the companion IWS abstract by Kassemi et al. (2016) to evaluate the maximum growth and agglomeration potential from a specified set of urine chemistry values. Changes in renal stone occurrence rates are obtained from this model in a probabilistic simulation that interrogates the range of possible urine chemistries using Monte Carlo techniques. Subsequently, each randomly sampled urine chemistry undergoes speciation analysis using the well-established Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) code to calculate critical values, such as ionic strength and relative supersaturation. The Kassemi model utilizes this information to predict the mean and maximum stone size. We close the assessment loop by using a transfer function that estimates the rate of stone formation from combining the relative supersaturation and both the mean and maximum free stone growth sizes. The transfer function is established by a simulation analysis which combines population stone formation rates and Poisson regression. Training this transfer function requires using the output of the aforementioned assessment steps with inputs from known non-stone-former and known stone-former urine chemistries. Established in a Monte Carlo system, the entire renal stone analysis model produces a probability distribution of the stone formation rate and an expected uncertainty in the estimate. The utility of this analysis will be demonstrated by showing the change in renal stone occurrence predicted by this method using urine chemistry distributions published in Whitson et al. 2009. A comparison to the model predictions to previous assessments of renal stone risk will be used to illustrate initial validation of the model.

gravitational physiology↗
NASA NTRS2015

Construction of Polarimetric Radar-Based Reference Rain Maps for the Iowa Flood Studies Campaign

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in central and northeastern Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. Specific science objectives for IFloodS included quantification of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based estimates of precipitation, 4-D characterization of precipitation physical processes and associated parameters (e.g., size distributions, water contents, types, structure etc.), assessment of the impact of precipitation estimation uncertainty and physical processes on hydrologic predictive skill, and refinement of field observations and data analysis approaches as they pertain to future GPM integrated hydrologic validation and related field studies. In addition to field campaign archival of raw and processed satellite data (including precipitation products), key ground-based platforms such as the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars, University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, a large network of paired rain gauge platforms, and a large network of 2D Video and Parsivel disdrometers were deployed. In something of a canonical approach, the radar (NPOL in particular), gauge and disdrometer observational assets were deployed to create a consistent high-quality distributed (time and space sampling) radar-based ground "reference" rainfall dataset, with known uncertainties, that could be used for assessing the satellite-based precipitation products at a range of space/time scales. Subsequently, the impact of uncertainties in the satellite products could be evaluated relative to the ground-benchmark in coupled weather, land-surface and distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks as related to flood prediction. Relative to establishing the ground-based "benchmark", numerous avenues were pursued in the making and verification of IFloodS "reference" dual-polarimetric radar-based rain maps, and this study documents the process and results as they pertain specifically to efforts using the NPOL radar dataset. The initial portions of the "process" involved dual-polarimetric quality control procedures which employed standard phase and correlation-based approaches to removal of clutter and non-meteorological echo. Calculation of a scale-adaptive KDP was accomplished using the method of Wang and Chandrasekar (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). A dual-polarimetric blockage algorithm based on Lang et al. (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.) was then implemented to correct radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity at low elevation angles. Next, hydrometeor identification algorithms were run to identify liquid and ice hydrometeors. After the quality control and data preparation steps were completed several different dual-polarimetric rain estimation algorithms were employed to estimate rainfall rates using rainfall scans collected approximately every two to three minutes throughout the campaign. These algorithms included a polarimetrically-tuned Z-R algorithm that adjusts for drop oscillations (via Bringi et al., 2004, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.), and several different hybrid polarimetric variable approaches, including one that made use of parameters tuned to IFloodS 2D Video Disdrometer measurements. Finally, a hybrid scan algorithm was designed to merge the rain rate estimates from multiple low level elevation angle scans (where blockages could not be appropriately corrected) in order to create individual low-level rain maps. Individual rain maps at each time step were subsequently accumulated over multiple time scales for comparison to gauge network data. The comparison results and overall error character depended strongly on rain event type, polarimetric estimator applied, and range from the radar. We will present the outcome of these comparisons and their impact on constructing composited "reference" rainfall maps at select time and space scales.

Radar↗
NASA NTRS2008

Understanding Differences Between Co-Incident CloudSat, Aqua/MODIS and NOAA18 MHS Ice water Path Retrievals Over the Tropical Oceans

Accurate measurement of the physical and radiative properties of clouds and their representation in climate models continues to be a challe nge. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of t unable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ o bservations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties, particularly with respect to particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. Ice Water Path (IWP), or amount of ice present in a cloud column, is an important cl oud property to accurately quantify, because it is an integral measur e of the microphysical properties of clouds and the cloud feedback pr ocesses in the climate system. This paper investigates near co-incident retrievals of IWP over tropical oceans using three diverse measurem ent systems: radar from CloudSat, Vis/IR from Aqua/MODIS, and microwa ve from NOAA-18IMHS. CloudSat 94 GHz radar measurements provide high resolution vertical and along-orbit structure of cloud reflectivity a nd enable IWP (and IWC) retrievals. Overlapping MODIS measurements of cloud optical thickness and phase allow estimates of IWP when cloud tops are identified as being ice. Periodically, NOAA18 becomes co-inci dent in space I time to enable comparison of A-Train measurements to IWP inferred from the 157 and 89 GHz channel radiances. This latter m easurement is effective only for thick convective anvil systems. We s tratify these co-incident data (less than 4 minutes separation) into cirrus only, cirrus overlying liquid water clouds, and precipitating d eep convective clouds. Substantial biases in IWP and ice effective ra dius are found. Systematic differences in these retrievals are consid ered in light of the uncertainties in a priori assumptions ofPSDs, sp ectral sensitivity and algorithm strategies, which have a direct impact on the IWP product.

Pittman, Jasna↗
NASA NTRS1985

Voyager observations of ion phase space densities in the Jovian magnetosphere

Data from the Voyager low-energy charged particle experiment (LECP) were used to calculate ion phase space densities in Jupiter's magnetosphere. The calculation of F at constant mu and J(2) requires the determination of particle fluxes at specific pitch angles and energies. It is shown that the greatest uncertainties in the determination of F from LECP data arise from the fits to the measured pitch angle distributions and differential energy spectra. An estimate is provided of this uncertainty and of others arising from model radial diffusion coefficients and magnetic fields. The general nature of the curves is consistent with inward diffusion of these energetic ions from the outer magnetosphere combined with losses near but starting beyond the orbit of Io. These losses are not consistent with simple satellite sweeping by Io alone and are probably due to an Io-torus wave-particle interaction. The lifetime against loss deduced from the data is approximately 20,000 s near Io and is a value consistent with strong diffusion losses. The measured ion loss rate declines much more rapidly than the strong diffusion loss rate as L increases from 7 to 9, suggesting that the loss rate is well below the strong-diffusion rate beyond 7 Jupiter radii for ions observed by the LECP.

Paonessa, M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Transition Effects on Heating in the Wake of a Blunt Body

A series of aerodynamic heating tests was conducted on a 70-deg sphere-cone planetary entry vehicle model in a Mach 10 perfect-gas wind tunnel at freestream Reynolds numbers based on diameter of 8.23x104 to 3.15x105. Surface heating distributions were determined from temperature time-histories measured on the model and on its support sting using thin-film resistance gages. The experimental heating data were compared to computations made using an axisymmetric/2D, laminar, perfect-gas Navier-Stokes solver. Agreement between computational and experimental heating distributions to within, or slightly greater than, the experimental uncertainty was obtained on the forebody and afterbody of the entry vehicle as well as on the sting upstream of the free-shear-layer reattachment point. However, the distributions began to diverge near the reattachment point, with the experimental heating becoming increasingly greater than the computed heating with distance downstream from the reattachment point. It was concluded that this divergence was due to transition of the wake free shear layer just upstream of the reattachment point on the sting.

Hollis, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The two-dimensional diagnostic model for tropospheric OH - An uncertainty analysis

Tropospheric OH is believed to play a major role in atmospheric photochemistry, and, via its chemical interactions OH ultimately may affect the climate, stratospheric ozone levels, and the pH of rain. A valuable tool for predicting the global OH abundance as a function of latitude and altitude is the two-dimensional diagnostic model for tropospheric OH. This model can also be applied to budget studies of species which interact with OH, such as CH4, CO, and O3. In addition to laboratory-obtained kinetic data, important variables include the rate constants for several reactions, the rate of heterogeneous removal of soluble species, and the global abundance and spatial variability in H2O, O3, CO, and NOx. The uncertainties in these parameters imply over a factor of 3 variability in the calculated global OH concentration as well as significant uncertainties in the latitudinal and vertical OH distribution.

Chameides, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Cruse, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Swept shock/boundary layer interaction experiments in support of CFD code validation

Research on the topic of shock wave/turbulent boundary-layer interaction was carried out during the past three years at the Penn State Gas Dynamics Laboratory. This report describes the experimental research program which provides basic knowledge and establishes new data on heat transfer in swept shock wave/boundary-layer interactions. An equilibrium turbulent boundary-layer on a flat plate is subjected to impingement by swept planar shock waves generated by a sharp fin. Five different interactions with fin angle ranging from 10 deg to 20 deg at freestream Mach numbers of 3.0 and 4.0 produce a variety of interaction strengths from weak to very strong. A foil heater generates a uniform heat flux over the flat plate surface, and miniature thin-film-resistance sensors mounted on it are used to measure the local surface temperature. The heat convection equation is then solved for the heat transfer distribution within an interaction, yielding a total uncertainty of about +/- 10 percent. These experimental data are compared with the results of numerical Navier-Stokes solutions which employ a k-epsilon turbulence model. Finally, a simplified form of the peak heat transfer correlation for fin interactions is suggested.

Settles, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Heat transfer measurements and CFD comparison of swept shock wave/boundary-layer interactions

An experimental research program providing basic knowledge and establishing new data on the heat transfer in swept shock wave/boundary-layer interactions is described. An equilibrium turbulent boundary-layer on a flat plate is subjected to impingement by swept planar shock waves generated by a sharp fin. Five different interactions with fin angles ranging from 10 to 20 deg at freestream Mach numbers of 3.0 and 4.0 produce a variety of interaction strengths from weak to very strong. A foil heater generates a uniform heat flux over the flat plate surface and miniature thin-film-resistance sensors mounted on it are used to measure the local surface temperature. The heat convection equation is then solved for the heat transfer distribution within an interaction, yielding a total uncertainty of about +/- 10 percent. These experimental data are compared with the results of numerical Navier-Stokes solutions which employ a kappa-epsilon turbulence model. Finally, a simplified form of the peak heat transfer correlation for fin interactions is suggested.

Lee, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effect of model uncertainty on some optimal routing problems

The effect of model uncertainties on optimal routing in a system of parallel queues is examined. The uncertainty arises in modeling the service time distribution for the customers (jobs, packets) to be served. For a Poisson arrival process and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the variance of this distribution. However, as the input traffic load approaches the system capacity the optimal routing assignment and corresponding mean system delay are shown to converge to a variance-invariant point. The implications of these results are examined in the context of gradient-based routing algorithms. An example of a model-independent algorithm using online gradient estimation is also included.

Mohanty, Bibhu↗
NASA NTRS2002

An Assessment of the Ability of Potential Satellite Instruments to Resolve Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric CO2

Sufficiently precise satellite observations with adequate spatial and temporal resolution would substantially increase our knowledge of the atmospheric CO2 distribution and would undoubtedly lead to reduced uncertainty in estimates of the global carbon budget. An overview of possible strategies for measuring CO2 from space will be presented, including IR and nearby measurements, active sensors and broad band and narrow band passive sensors. The ability of potential satellite instruments with a variety of orbits, horizontal resolution and vertical weighting functions to capture the variation in atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios will be illustrated using a combination of surface data, aircraft data and model results.

Andrews, A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Operational Hazards↗
NASA NTRS2018

Infrared Computer-Generated Holograms: Design and Application for the WFIRST Grism Using Wavelength-Tuning Interferometry

Interferometers using computer-generated holograms (CGHs) have become the industry standard to accurately measure aspheric optics. The CGH is a diffractive optical element that can create a phase or amplitude distribution and can be manufactured with low uncertainty using modern lithographic techniques. However, these CGHs have conventionally been used with visible light and piezo-shifting interferometers. Testing the performance of transmissive optics in the infrared requires infrared CGHs and an infrared interferometer. Such an instrument is used in this investigation, which introduces its phase shift via wavelength-tuning. A procedure on how to design and manufacture infrared CGHs and how these were successfully used to model and measure the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope grism elements is provided. Additionally, the paper provides a parametric model, simulation results, and calculations of the errors and measurements that come about when interferometers introduce a phase variation via wavelength-tuning interferometry to measure precision aspheres.

Communication↗
NASA NTRS2020

Model-Reference Adaptive Control of Distributed Lagrangian Infinite-Dimensional Systems Using Hamilton’s Principle

This paper presents a Hamilton's principle for distributed control of infinite-dimensional systems modeled by a distributed form of the Euler-Lagrange method. The distributed systems are governed by a system of linear partial differential equations in space and time. A generalized potential energy expression is developed that can capture most physical systems including those systems that have no spatial distribution. The Hamilton's principle is applied to derive distributed feedback control methods without resorting to the standard weak-form discretization approach to convert an infinite-dimensional systems to a finite-dimensional systems. It can be shown by the principle of least action that the distributed control synthesized by the Hamilton's principle is a minimum-norm control. A model-reference adaptive control framework is developed for distributed Lagrangian systems in the presence of uncertainty. The theory is demonstrated by an application of adaptive flutter suppression control of a flexible aircraft wing.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting near-saturated hydraulic conductivity in urban soils

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide point predictions of soil hydraulic properties from more readily measured soil characteristics, yet uncertainties and biases in measurement methods, sampling distributions, and boundary conditions can limit accuracy when estimating near-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K(n)). These limitations may be particularly problematic in understudied urban landscapes that often contain altered hydraulic properties. To better treat deficiencies in PTF performance, we addressed three objectives, which were to: 1) develop PTFs to predict urban K(n), 2) assess bulk density and coarse fragments as explanatory variables; and 3) evaluate the predictive capability of these PTFs by comparing their output to measured hydraulic conductivity values from three other studies of urban soil hydraulics. We used artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) approaches to predict urban K(n), with the training dataset including 307 tension infiltrometer tests and other measurements drawn from urban soil assessments in 11 U.S. cities. The PTFs utilized a hierarchy of inputs, starting with percentage sand, silt, clay, and then adding percentage coarse fragments and bulk density. The ANN models performed similar to the RF models, and all models exhibited similar or better predictive performance as models results collected from published articles. The inclusion of bulk density or coarse fragments did not improve accuracy over soil texture alone. Possible reasons for this result include low correlation between K(n) and bulk density and the exclusion of large voids during flow measurements with tension infiltrometers. The models have been made available as an open-source software package to encourage adoption by users working in urban systems.

Jinshi Jian↗