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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Autonomous Coordinated Airspace Services for Terminal and Enroute Operations with Wind Errors

As novel uses of the airspace continue to multiply, there is increasing demand for access to high-density terminal areas around major airports. Since the predicted demand for urban-air-mobility and urban-package-delivery is very high, and the interactions between these different types of aircraft and missions will be extremely complex, increasingly autonomous systems will be required to manage safety and efficiency. This paper presents the current status of an autonomous safety system designed to ensure safe and efficient trajectories for aircraft in terminal airspace, the Terminal Advanced Airspace Concept. Previous papers have demonstrated the efficacy of this algorithm for handling commercial arrivals into a complex metroplex when there is no uncertainty present. This study extends that work to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm under high levels of uncertainty.

terminal operations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Low-Dimensional Manifold via Co-Kurtosis PCA in Combustion Modeling

For multi-scale multi-physics applications e.g., the turbulent combustion code Pele, robust and accurate dimensionality reduction is crucial to solving problems at exascale and beyond. A recently developed technique, Co-Kurtosis based Principal Component Analysis (CoK-PCA) which leverages principal vectors of co-kurtosis, is a promising alternative to traditional PCA for complex chemical systems. To improve the effectiveness of this approach, we employ Artificial Neural Networks for reconstructing thermo-chemical scalars, species production rates, and overall heat release rates corresponding to the full state space. Our focus is on bolstering confidence in this deep learning based non-linear reconstruction through Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA). UQ involves quantifying uncertainties in inputs and outputs, while SA identifies influential inputs. One of the noteworthy challenges is the computational expense inherent in both endeavors. To address this, we employ the Monte Carlo methods to effectively quantify and propagate uncertainties in our reduced spaces while managing computational demands. Our research carries profound implications not only for the realm of combustion modeling but also for a broader audience in UQ. By showcasing the reliability and robustness of CoK-PCA in dimensionality reduction and deep learning predictions, we empower researchers and decision-makers to navigate complex combustion systems with greater confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projection-Based Model Reduction for Coupled Conduction—Enclosure Radiation Systems

We report a projection-based reduced order model (pROM) methodology has been developed for transient heat transfer problems involving coupled conduction and enclosure radiation. The approach was demonstrated on two test problems of varying complexity. The reduced order models demonstrated substantial speedups (up to 185×) relative to the full order model with good accuracy (less than 3% L ∞ error). An attractive feature of pROMs is that there is a natural error indicator for the ROM solution: the final residual norm at each time-step of the converged ROM solution. Using example test cases, we discuss how to interpret this error indicator to assess the accuracy of the ROM solution. The approach shows promise for many-query applications, such as uncertainty quantification and optimization. The reduced computational cost of the ROM relative to the full-order model (FOM) can enable the analysis of larger and more complex systems as well as the exploration of larger parameter spaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2018

Autonomous Coordinated Airspace Services for Terminal and Enroute Operations with Wind Errors

As novel uses of the airspace continue to multiply, there is increasing demand for access to high-density terminal areas around major airports. Since the predicted demand for urban-air-mobility and urban-package-delivery is very high, and the interactions between these different types of aircraft and missions will be extremely complex, increasingly autonomous systems will be required to manage safety and efficiency. This paper presents the current status of an autonomous safety system designed to ensure safe and efficient trajectories for aircraft in terminal airspace, the Terminal Advanced Airspace Concept. Previous papers have demonstrated the efficacy of this algorithm for handling commercial arrivals into a complex metroplex when there is no uncertainty present. This study extends that work to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm under high levels of uncertainty.

terminal operations↗
NASA NTRS1988

Precision pointing of scientific instruments on space station: The LFGGREC perspective

An application of Lyapunov function-gradient-generated robustness-enhancing control (LFGGREC) is explored. The attention is directed to a reduced-complexity representation of the pointing problem presented by the system composed of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility gimbaled to a space station configuration. Uncertainties include disturbance forces applied in the crew compartment area and control moments applied to adjacent scientific payloads (modeled as disturbance moments). Also included are uncertainties in gimbal friction and in the structural component of the system, as reflected in the inertia matrix, the damping matrix, and the stiffness matrix, and the effect of the ignored vibrational dynamics of the structure. The emphasis is on the adaptation of LFGGREC to this particular configuration and on the robustness analysis.

Blackwell, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Minimal complexity control law synthesis

A paradigm for control law design for modern engineering systems is proposed: Minimize control law complexity subject to the achievement of a specified accuracy in the face of a specified level of uncertainty. Correspondingly, the overall goal is to make progress towards the development of a control law design methodology which supports this paradigm. Researchers achieve this goal by developing a general theory of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback compensation, where here constrained-structure means that the dynamic-structure (e.g., dynamic order, pole locations, zero locations, etc.) of the output feedback compensation is constrained in some way. By applying this theory in an innovative fashion, where here the indicated iteration occurs over the choice of the compensator dynamic-structure, the paradigm stated above can, in principle, be realized. The optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problem is formulated in general terms. An elegant method for reducing optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems to optimal static output feedback problems is then developed. This reduction procedure makes use of star products, linear fractional transformations, and linear fractional decompositions, and yields as a byproduct a complete characterization of the class of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems which can be reduced to optimal static output feedback problems. Issues such as operational/physical constraints, operating-point variations, and processor throughput/memory limitations are considered, and it is shown how anti-windup/bumpless transfer, gain-scheduling, and digital processor implementation can be facilitated by constraining the controller dynamic-structure in an appropriate fashion.

Bernstein, Dennis S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for a Single Holocene Paleoseismic Event on the Pajarito Fault, Northern New Mexico

Low-slip rate fault systems tend to be less studied than their high-slip rate counterparts, and paleoseismic techniques used to study them may pose challenges in interpretation that differ from high-slip rate systems. A good example of this is the Pajarito fault system (PFS), a normal fault complex within the Rio Grande rift. Despite numerous previous paleoseismic trenching studies conducted on the PFS between 1990 and 2003, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its Holocene paleoseismic history, particularly for the primary Pajarito fault (PF). To further clarify the PF paleoseismic history, we present data from paleoseismic investigations of 6 trenches at 3 distinct locations along the PF. Though the totality of the age and structural data obtained in this study is complex and not entirely consistent with any one interpretation, a single Holocene paleoearthquake occurring younger than ∼1,600 to 2,300 kcal yr BP is the simplest interpretation. It is possible that the PF records two Holocene events, with a penultimate event 6.9–2.4 kcal yr BP event and the aforementioned most recent event (MRE) between 2.3 and 1.6 kcal yr BP. However, only a single wall of one trench, out of a total of 12 walls in our 6 trenches, provides evidence supporting that interpretation. This study finds evidence of a single late Holocene paleoseismic event on the PF and sparse evidence for 2 Holocene paleoseismic events on the PF and highlights the benefits of logging multiple trench walls to better understand the complexity that results from this low-slip rate, low-deposition-rate fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Robust root clustering for linear uncertain systems using generalized Lyapunov theory

Consideration is given to the problem of matrix root clustering in subregions of a complex plane for linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty. The nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman & Jury (1981) using the generalized Liapunov equation is extended to the perturbed matrix case, and bounds are derived on the perturbation to maintain root clustering inside a given region. The theory makes it possible to obtain an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty range of the parameter space.

Yedavalli, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

MULTI-FIDELITY MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF INVERTER BASED RESOURCES IN INTEGRATED T&D SYSTEMS

Uncertainty quantification plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy and reliability of inverter operation within modern power systems that are increasingly dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs). IBRs, especially those operating under grid forming (GFM) control, rely heavily on a complex set of control parameters and system measurements to maintain voltage, frequency, and power balance. Traditional deterministic modeling approaches often fail to capture these parameter deviations, potentially resulting in suboptimal control actions, reduced system stability, or even instability under high penetration of IBRs. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of model calibration and uncertainty quantification (UQ) principles to an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) model involving a GFM converter and provide a framework for prioritizing control improvements, guiding robust design, and informing adaptive strategies that can accommodate real-time variability in system conditions. The proposed approach could be valuable in enhancing the robustness of current and future power systems under increased IBR penetrations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer for Long-term Dynamics Prediction (StFT) v1.0

We propose a novel machine learning model spatio-temporal Fourier transformer (StFT) to emulate long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems. Our method StFT overcomes the limitations of rapid error accumulation, particularly in long-term forecasting of systems characterized by complex and coupled dynamics. StFT achieves outstanding accuracy and computational efficiency by effectively capturing multi-scale interactions, and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the predictions. Our model leverages a structured hierarchy of StFT blocks, and explicitly captures dynamics across both macro- and micro- spatial scales. Evaluations conducted on three benchmark datasets (plasma, fluid, and atmospheric dynamics) demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art ML methods.

Bai, Zhe [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (L↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Framework for Probabilistic Evaluation of Interval Management Tolerance in the Terminal Radar Control Area

Projections of future traffic in the national airspace show that most of the hub airports and their attendant airspace will need to undergo significant redevelopment and redesign in order to accommodate any significant increase in traffic volume. Even though closely spaced parallel approaches increase throughput into a given airport, controller workload in oversubscribed metroplexes is further taxed by these approaches that require stringent monitoring in a saturated environment. The interval management (IM) concept in the TRACON area is designed to shift some of the operational burden from the control tower to the flight deck, placing the flight crew in charge of implementing the required speed changes to maintain a relative spacing interval. The interval management tolerance is a measure of the allowable deviation from the desired spacing interval for the IM aircraft (and its target aircraft). For this complex task, Formal Methods can help to ensure better design and system implementation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainty and performance associated with the major components of the IM tolerance. The analytical basis for this framework may be used to formalize both correctness and probabilistic system safety claims in a modular fashion at the algorithmic level in a way compatible with several Formal Methods tools.

Hercencia-Zapana, Heber↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Dynamics and Control

This tutorial paper focuses on safe physics-informed machine learning in the context of dynamics and control, providing a comprehensive overview of how to integrate physical models and safety guarantees. As machine learning techniques enhance the modeling and control of complex dynamical systems, ensuring safety and stability remains a critical challenge, especially in safety-critical applications like autonomous vehicles, robotics, medical decision-making, and energy systems. We explore various approaches for embedding and ensuring safety constraints, including structural priors, Lyapunov and Control Barrier Functions, predictive control, projections, and robust optimization techniques. Additionally, we delve into methods for uncertainty quantification and safety verification, including reachability analysis and neural network verification tools, which help validate that control policies remain within safe operating bounds even in uncertain environments. The paper includes illustrative examples demonstrating the implementation aspects of safe learning frameworks that combine the strengths of data-driven approaches with the rigor of physical principles, offering a path toward the safe control of complex dynamical systems.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models

Abstract. Parameterizations in earth system models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation, and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran–Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: an ML trigger function for convection parameterization and an ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Fortran-Python Interface for Integrating Machine Learning Parameterization into Earth System Models

Parameterizations in Earth System Models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran-Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and Scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: a ML trigger function for convection parameterization and a ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Agent Graph-Attention Deep Reinforcement Learning for Post-Contingency Grid Emergency Voltage Control

Grid emergency voltage control (GEVC) is paramount in electric power systems to improve voltage stability and prevent cascading outages and blackouts in case of contingencies. While most deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based paradigms perform single agents in a static environment, real-world agents for GEVC are expected to cooperate in a dynamically shifting grid. Moreover, due to high uncertainties from combinatory natures of various contingencies and load consumption, along with the complexity of dynamic grid operation, the data efficiency and control performance of the existing DRL-based methods are challenged. To address these limitations, we propose a multi-agent graph-attention (GATT)-based DRL algorithm for GEVC in multi-area power systems. Here, we develop graph convolutional network (GCN)-based agents for feature representation of the graph-structured voltages to improve the decision accuracy in a data-efficient manner. Furthermore, a cutting-edge attention mechanism concentrates on effective information sharing among multiple agents, synergizing different-sized subnetworks in the grid for cooperative learning. We address several key challenges in the existing DRL-based GEVC approaches, including low scalability and poor stability against high uncertainties. Test results in the IEEE benchmark system verify the advantages of the proposed method over several recent multi-agent DRL-based algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗