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Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

Initial assessment of the stratospheric and climatic impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption - Prologue

An overview is given of the techniques employed to evaluate the early effects of the volcanic eruption on the stratosphere and climate, and data are given on the initial eruption yield. Global satellite measurements were taken by TOMS, SAGE II, AVHRR, and other devices, and the initial results indicate an eruption yield of 20 megatons of SO2 and 20-30 megatons of H2SO4/H2O aerosol mass. The predicted effects of the eruption - accelerated global ozone depletion and surface cooling - can be compared to meteorological data to test the validity of present climate models based on these data.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Planetary geomorphology field studies: Iceland and Antarctica

Field studies of terrestrial landforms and the processes that shape them provide new directions to the study of planetary features. These studies, conducted in Iceland and in Antarctica, investigated physical and chemical weathering mechanisms and rates, eolitan processes, mudflow phenomena, drainage development, and catastrophic fluvial and volcanic phenomena. Continuing investigations in Iceland fall in three main catagories: (1) catastrophic floods of the Jokulsa a Fjollum, (2) lahars associated with explosive volcanic eruptions of Askja caldera, and (3) rates of eolian abrasion in cold, volcanic deserts. The ice-free valleys of Antarctica, in particular those in South Victoria Land, have much is common with the surface of Mars. In addition to providing independent support for the application of the Iceland findings to consideration of the martian erosional system, the Antarctic observations also provide analogies to other martian phenomena. For example, a family of sand dunes in Victoria Valley are stabilized by the incorporation of snow as beds.

Malin, M. C.↗

Report of the panel on volcanology, section 4

Two primary goals are identified as focal to NASA's research efforts in volcanology during the 1990s: to understand the eruption of lavas, gases, and aerosols from volcanoes, the dispersal of these materials on the Earth's surface and through the atmosphere, and the effects of these eruptions on the climate and environment; and to understand the physical processes that lead to the initiation of volcanic activity, that influence the styles of volcanic eruptions, and that dictate the morphology and evolution of volcanic landforms. Strategy and data requirements as well as research efforts are discussed.

Francis, Peter W.↗

Remote Sensing of Volcanic Clouds: Sulfur Gases and Plume Top Topography

New absorption line parameters for H2S were published and submitted to the Gestion et Etude des Informations Spectroscopiques Atmospheriques (GEISA) and high resolution transmission molecular absorption (HITRAN) databases. These new absorption line parameters will make it possible to use observations from the future Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument [Earth Observing System (EOS) Chemistry Mission (CHEM) platform] to make more accurate H2S measurements if it observes an H2S-rich volcanic cloud. H2S is the second most abundant volcanic sulfur gas, and like SO2, it also converts to H2SO4 aerosols and can have a climate impact. A paper on the Moderate-resolution Imaging-Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SO2 alert is being revised. New aspects in the revision include verification of the SO2 alert during the EOS mission; factors affecting SO2 detection at thermal infrared, ultraviolet, and microwave wavelengths; radiative transfer tests; more description of satellite instruments; and thermal surface alert installed for MODIS. Her research involves the use of remote sensing to generate maps of plume top altitude. This parameter is important for models of volcanic eruption, aircraft hazards, and climate impact. The topographic shape of the top surface of a volcanic plume can provide information necessary to understand the physics controlling the injection and dispersal of a volcanic plume in the atmosphere. Glaze et al. describe the application of a photoclinometric technique to volcanic plumes. The software algorithm has been improved to account for more general plume and illumination geometries and for easily extracting position information directly from Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) level 1B data. Testing of the algorithm has focused on acquiring AVHRR data for a variety of volcanic plumes in an effort to identify problems with the software as well as model sensitivities. The plumes chosen were erupted from volcanoes at a variety of latitudes, at different times of day, and in different seasons. Another important issue that is being investigated is the importance of plume opacity. A diagram illustrates the method for deriving phi, the angle a wind-blown plume makes with the horizontal, in the direction perpendicular to the remote sensing scan. A figure shows a sample output of the algorithm, a wire mesh map of plume top topography. Additional information is contained in the original.

Crisp, Joy A.↗

Effect of subglacial volcanism on changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Rapid changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may affect future global sea-level changes. Alley and Whillans note that 'the water responsible for separating the glacier from its bed is produced by frictional dissipation and geothermal heat,' but assume that changes in geothermal flux would ordinarily be expected to have slower effects than glaciological parameters. I suggest that episodic subglacial volcanism and geothermal heating may have significantly greater effects on the WAIS than is generally appreciated. The WAIS flows through the active, largely asiesmic West Antarctic rift system (WS), which defines the sub-sea-level bed of the glacier. Various lines of evidence summarized in Behrendt et al. (1991) indicate high heat flow and shallow asthenosphere beneath the extended, weak lithosphere underlying the WS and the WAIS. Behrendt and Cooper suggest a possible synergistic relation between Cenozoic tectonism, episodic mountain uplift and volcanism in the West Antarctic rift system, and the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet beginning about earliest Oligocene time. A few active volcanoes and late-Cenozoic volcanic rocks are exposed throughout the WS along both flanks, and geophysical data suggest their presence beneath the WAIS. No part of the rift system can be considered inactive. I propose that subglacial volcanic eruptions and ice flow across areas of locally (episodically?) high heat flow--including volcanically active areas--should be considered possibly to have a forcing effect on the thermal regime resulting in increased melting at the base of the ice streams.

Behrendt, John C.↗

Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

The objectives of this project are to: define the chemical and physical processes leading to stratospheric ozone change that involve polar stratospheric clouds (PSCS) and the reactions occurring on the surfaces of PSC particles; study the formation processes, and the physical and chemical properties of PSCS, that are relevant to atmospheric chemistry and to the interpretation of field measurements taken during polar stratosphere missions; develop quantitative models describing PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemical processes; assimilate laboratory and field data into these models; and calculate the extent of chemical processing on PSCs and the impact of specific microphysical processes on polar composition and ozone depletion. During the course of the project, a new coupled microphysics/physical-chemistry/ photochemistry model for stratospheric sulfate aerosols and nitric acid and ice PSCs was developed and applied to analyze data collected during NASA's Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition-II (AASE-II) and other missions. In this model, detailed treatments of multicomponent sulfate aerosol physical chemistry, sulfate aerosol microphysics, polar stratospheric cloud microphysics, PSC ice surface chemistry, as well as homogeneous gas-phase chemistry were included for the first time. In recent studies focusing on AASE measurements, the PSC model was used to analyze specific measurements from an aircraft deployment of an aerosol impactor, FSSP, and NO(y) detector. The calculated results are in excellent agreement with observations for particle volumes as well as NO(y) concentrations, thus confirming the importance of supercooled sulfate/nitrate droplets in PSC formation. The same model has been applied to perform a statistical study of PSC properties in the Northern Hemisphere using several hundred high-latitude air parcel trajectories obtained from Goddard. The rates of ozone depletion along trajectories with different meteorological histories are presently being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

Turco, Richard P.↗

A New Discrete Wavelength BUV Algorithm for Consistent Volcanic SO2 Retrievals from Multiple Satellite Missions

This paper describes a new discrete wavelength algorithm developed for retrieving volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) vertical column density (VCD) from UV observing satellites. The Multi-Satellite SO2 algorithm (MS_SO2) simultaneously retrieves column densities of sulfur dioxide, ozone, and Lambertian effective reflectivity (LER) and its spectral dependence. It is used operationally to process measurements from the heritage Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) onboard NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite (N7/TOMS: 1978-1993) and from the current Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR: 2015-) from the Earth-Sun Lagrange (L1) orbit. Results from MS_SO2 algorithm for several volcanic cases were assessed using the more sensitive principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm. The PCA is an operational algorithm used by NASA to retrieve SO2 from hyperspectral UV spectrometers, such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Earth Observing System Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite (OMPS) onboard NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. For this comparative study, the PCA algorithm was modified to use the discrete wavelengths of the Nimbus-7/TOMS instrument, described in Sect. S1 of the Supplement. Our results demonstrate good agreement between the two retrievals for the largest volcanic eruptions of the satellite era, such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. To estimate SO2 retrieval systematic uncertainties, we use radiative transfer simulations explicitly accounting for volcanic sulfate and ash aerosols. Our results suggest that the discrete-wavelength MS_SO2 algorithm, although less sensitive than hyperspectral PCA algorithm, can be adapted to retrieve volcanic SO2 VCDs from contemporary hyperspectral UV instruments, such as OMI and OMPS, to create consistent, multi-satellite, long-term volcanic SO2 climate data records.

Bradford L Fisher↗

Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events

Volcanic eruptions in otherwise clean environments are “natural experiments” wherein the effects of aerosol emissions on clouds and climate can be partitioned from meteorological variability and anthropogenic activities. In this work, we combined satellite retrievals, reanalysis products, and atmospheric modeling to analyze the mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions during two degassing events at the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018. The eruptive nature of the 2008 and 2018 degassing events was distinct from long-term volcanic activity for Kilauea. Although previous studies assessed the modulation of cloud properties from the 2008 event, this is the first time such an analysis has been reported for the 2018 event and that multiple degassing events have been analyzed and compared at this location. Both events resulted in significant changes in cloud effective radius and cloud droplet number concentration that were decoupled from local meteorology and in line with an enhanced cloud albedo. However, it is likely that the effects of volcanic emissions on liquid water path and cloud fraction were largely offset by meteorological variability. Comparison of cloud anomalies between the two events suggested a threshold response of aerosol–cloud interactions to overcome meteorological effects, largely controlled by aerosol loading. In both events, the ingestion of aerosols within convective parcels enhanced the detrainment of condensate in the upper troposphere, resulting in deeper clouds than observed under pristine conditions. Accounting for ice nucleation on ash particles led to enhanced ice crystal concentrations at cirrus levels and a slight decrease in ice water content, improving the correlation of the model results with the satellite retrievals. Overall, aerosol loading, plume characteristics, and meteorology contributed to changes in cloud properties during the Kilauea degassing events.

Katherine H. Breen↗

Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be 0.19 +/- 0.09W/sq m. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

aerosols↗

Earthquake swarms on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Products of magmatism or extensional tectonics?

The spatial and temporal patterns and other characteristics of earthquakes in 34 earthquake swarms on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge were compared with those of well-studied earthquake swarms which accompany terrestrial volcanic eruptions, to test the assumption that the teleseismically observed earthquake swarms along mid-ocean ridges are indicators of volcanism. Improved resolution of these patterns for the mid-ocean ridge events was achieved by a multiple-event relocation technique. It was found that the teleseismically located earthquake swarms on the mid-ocean ridge system have few features in common with swarms directly associated with active magmatism in terrestrial volcanic rift zones such as Hawaii and Iceland. While the possibility that some of the mid-ocean earthquake swarms might be directly associated with a current episode of eruptive activity on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge cannot be excluded, none of the 34 swarms studied in this work was found to be a conspicuously attractive candidate for such a role.

Bergman, Eric A.↗

"Coulombic Viscosity" In Granular Materials: Planetary and Astrophysical Implications

The term "Coulombic viscosity" is introduced here to define an empirically observed phenomenon from experiments conducted in both microgravity, and in ground-based 1-g conditions. In the latter case, a sand attrition device was employed to test the longevity of aeolian materials by creating two intersecting grain-circulation paths or cells that would lead to most of the grain energy being expended on grain-to-grain collisions (simulating dune systems). In the areas in the device where gravitationally-driven grain-slurries recycled the sand, the slurries moved with a boundary-layer impeded motion down the chamber walls. Excessive electrostatic charging of the grains during these experiments was prevented by the use of an a.c. corona (created by a Tesla coil) through which the grains passed on every cycle. This created both positive and negative ions which neutralized the triboelectrically-generated grain charges. When the corona was switched on, the velocity of the wall-attached slurries increased by a factor of two as approximately determined by direct observation. What appeared to be a freely-flowing slurry of grains impeded only by intergranular mechanical friction, had obviously been significantly retarded in its motion by electrostatic forces between the grains; with the charging reduced, the grains were able to move past one another without a flow "viscosity" imposed by the Coulombic intergranular forces. A similar phenomenon was observed during microgravity experiments aboard Space Shuttle in USML-1 & USML-2 spacelabs where freely-suspended clouds of sand were being investigated for their potential to for-m aggregates. In this environment, the grains were also charged electrostatically (by natural processes prior to flight), but were free from the intervention of gravity in their interactions. The grains were dispersed into dense clouds by bursts of air turbulence and allowed to form aggregates as the ballistic and turbulent motions damped out. During this very brief (30-60 sec) damping period, motion of the grains was observed to be retarded by the electrostatic interactions. The fact that the grains almost instantly formed aggregates was evidence that their ballistic motions had been constrained and redirected by the dipole-dipole interactions that led to filamentary aggregate development. Undoubtedly, the "Coulombic viscosity" of the cloud assisted in damping grain motion so rapidly. The electrostatically-induced grain-cloud viscosity or drag exerted on grain motion, is a complex function of three major parameters: charge magnitude, charge sign, and mean intergranular distance. The above experiments illustrate one particular type of granular behavior. The discussion here will therefore be restricted to drag relationships: (a) between grains that are naturally charged triboelectrically and thus exhibit dipole-dipole attractions between one another even if there are slight net charges present (which can be overwhelmed by dipole coupling at short distances), and (b) between grains that are densely spaced where the intergranular distance varies between zero and some value (usually tens or hundreds of grain diameters) that permits each grain to detect the dipole moment of another grain -- the distance is not so great that other grains appears as neutral electrical "singularities. I. Aeolian transport: During motion of grains in a saltation cloud (on Earth, Mars, or Venus), triboelectric charging must occur as a result of multiple grain contacts, and by friction with the entraining air. A situation might develop that is similar to the one described above in the attrition device: grain motion becoming significantly retarded (reduced flux) as grains find it increasingly difficult to either separate from the surface, or to pass one another without Coulombic retarding forces. A "Coulombic drag" will exist at flux initiation and increase with time to work in direct opposition to the aerodynamic drag that drives the grain motion. It is predicted that this will lead to an increase with time of both the aerodynamic and bed-dilatancy thresholds (3). Because of Paschen discharge effects in the martian atmosphere, the electrostatic charging in a saltation cloud may be partially abated, but this will lead to greater grain mobility, more charging, and thus to a charge-discharge steady state mediated by mechanical interactions. II. Dry colluvial systems: Sand avalanches on dunes, dry debris flows, talus flows, avalanches, and pyroclastic surges are examples of gravity-driven, dense granular flows where rock/grain fragmentation and grain-to-grain interactions cause triboelectrification (sometimes augmented by other electrical charging processes), and where the grain densities of the systems are such that strong dipole-dipole interactions between grains might be expected to be present. Because it is expected that the Coulombic forces between grains will cause a sluggishness or enhanced granular-flow viscosity, the motion of a grain mass will be retarded or damped so that this will assist, ultimately, in terminating the flow. The greatest Coulombic viscosity will be created in the most highly charged systems, which will also be the most energetic. Thus, grain flows have some tendency to be self-limiting by internal energy partitioning; gravitational potential is converted to Coulombic potential, which manifests itself as a drag force between the grains. III. Volcanic eruption plumes and impact ejecta curtains: The violence of these systems leads to powerful electrical charging of particulates. Lightning storms emanating from volcanic plumes are a testimony to the levels of charging. As pyroclastic grains interact forcefully and frequently within eruption plumes, it is reasonable to predict that the internal turbulent motions of the plume will be significantly damped by the Coulombic viscosity exerted by grain charges. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Valles Marineris Basin Beds: a Complex Story

High resolution stereoimages of the central Valles Marineris enabled detailed geologic mapping on Ophir and Candor Chasmata. Abundant light colored deposits, both layered and massive, fill the chasmata in this region. Units within these deposits were identified by their erosional characteristics and superposition and cross cutting relations. The Valles Marineris beds reflect a history of repeated faulting, volcanic eruptions, and deposition and erosion, resulting in stratigraphic sequences with several unconformities. Because of the preponderance of apparent volcanic deposits inside the troughs, the chasmata may not be simple grabens, but rather giant volcano tectonic depressions. Major events in chasmata development are examined.

Lucchitta, B. K.↗

Possible production mechanisms of lunar magnetic fields.

Demonstration of the impossibility of the production of local surface magnetic fields on the moon by conduction currents in the lunar soil and in local lunar atmospheres by volcanic eruption. However, it is suggested that convection currents produced by the ionization (by radiation and/or by triboelectric effects) of volcanic-ash-particle flows may produce the local magnetic fields of about 1000 gamma that are believed to have existed on the moon about 3.5 x 10 to the 9th years ago. A simple electrogasdynamic model for such flows and experiments for further investigation of this hypothesis are discussed.

Cap, F. F.↗

Areal and time distributions of volcanic formations on Mars

The analysis of igneous rock distribution has been fulfilled on the basis of the geomorphological map of Mars at scale 1:5,000,000, according to data obtained from interpretation of 1:2,000,000 scale pictures of Mariner 9, Mars 4, Mars 5, Viking 1 and 2. Areological areas are listed as having been distinguished as the stratigraphic basis for a martian time scale. The area of volcanic eruptions and the number of eruptive centers are calculated on 10 x 10 deg cells and for each areological eras. The largest area of eruptive happening at different times is related with Tharsis tectonic uplift. The study of distribution of igneous rock area and volcanic centers number on 10 deg sectors and zones revealed the concentration belts of volcanic formations.

Katterfeld, G. N.↗

Simulation studies of the physical and chemical processes occurring in the stratospheric clouds of the Mount St. Helens eruptions of May and June 1980

The large and diverse set of observational data collected in the high-altitude clouds of May 18, May 25, and June 13, 1980 was organized and analyzed for trends which reveal the processes at work. The data were used to guide and constrain model simulations of the volcanic eruptions. A comprehensive one-dimensional model of stratospheric sulfate aerosols, sulfur precursor gases, and volcanic ash and dust particles is utilized which accounts for homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry in the clouds, aerosol nucleation and growth, and cloud expansion. Computational results are given for the time histories of the gaseous species concentrations, sulfate aerosol size dispersions, and ash burdens in the eruption clouds. The long-term buildup of stratospheric aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere and the persistent effects of injected chlorine and water vapor on ozone are discussed. It is concluded that SO2, water vapor, and ash are the most important substances injected by the volcano into the stratosphere, with respect to both the widespread effects on composition and the impact on climate. It is found that the volcano probably had little influence on the climate ( 0.05 K global surface cooling) or on stratospheric ozone ( 0.2 percent maximum hemispherical reduction).

Turco, R. P.↗

An assessment of volatile release from recent volcanism in Elysium, Mars

The amount and rate of release of volatiles (H2O, CO2, etc.) from recent volcanism in Elysium, Mars, are estimated. Possible implications of these volatiles on the climate, weathering, and surface morphology are discussed. Total eruptic volcanics may amount to about 4 x 10 exp 5 cu km and would have released large quantities of volatiles into the Martian environment. Assuming that the lavas contained 1.0 wt pct water, about 7.6 x 10 exp 15 kg of the water, or about 1000 times the present atmospheric water inventory, would have been released. Release amounts of other volatiles are estimated to be 10 exp 15 kg of S, 10 exp 13 kg of Cl, and 10 exp 13 kg of F. The short-term effect of the SO2 gas would be to warm the climate due to its greenhouse properties. Conversion to sulfate aerosols might have resulted in a net surface cooling due to scattering of sunlight. As the sulfate aerosols settled from the atmosphere, the climate could have returned to its preeruption equilibrium.

Plescia, J. B.↗

Ozone Depletion at Mid-Latitudes: Coupling of Volcanic Aerosols and Temperature Variability to Anthropogenic Chlorine

Satellite observations of total ozone at 40-60 deg N are presented from a variety of instruments over the time period 1979-1997. These reveal record low values in 1992-3 (after Pinatubo) followed by partial but incomplete recovery. The largest post-Pinatubo reductions and longer-term trends occur in spring, providing a critical test for chemical theories of ozone depletion. The observations are shown to be consistent with current understanding of the chemistry of ozone depletion when changes in reactive chlorine and stratospheric aerosol abundances are considered along with estimates of wave-driven fluctuations in stratospheric temperatures derived from global temperature analyses. Temperature fluctuations are shown to make significant contributions to model calculated northern mid-latitude ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosols at temperatures near 200-210 K (depending upon water vapor pressure), particularly after major volcanic eruptions. Future mid-latitude ozone recovery will hence depend not only on chlorine recovery but also on temperature trends and/or variability, volcanic activity, and any trends in stratospheric sulfate aerosol.

Solomon, S.↗