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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

climate variability↗
NASA NTRS2000

Temperature Trends in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Data Set

TOVS (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder) is the suite of infra-red and microwave sounding instruments, including HIRS-2 and MSU, that have flown on the NOAA Polar orbiting operational satellites TIROS-N, NOAA 6-14 from November 1978 to the present day. Data has been analyzed for the entire time period using a consistent methodology to produce twice daily per satellite global fields of surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature-moisture profile, cloud top pressure, and fractional cloud cover, OLR and clear sky OLR, and precipitation. All parameters were found to depend on the orbit time of observation which differed as a function of time both because of differing initial satellite orbits and orbit drift. This must be accounted for before one can attempt to find trends in the data. Methodology to account for orbit drift will be shown. Trends will then be shown, over the 21 year period 1979-1999, for surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profile. There has been global warming near the surface which falls off rapidly with height. Trends will also be shown for values of MSU2R and MSU4 which are computed from the soundings. These will be compared to trends of MSU2R and MSU4 observed by Spencer and Christy. There is generally good agreement between Spencer and Christy MSU2R trends and those computed from the TOVS Pathfinder data set, with the largest differences over the tropics.

Susskind, J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green’s function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011–2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015–2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green’s functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global urban heat island intensity dataset: Generation, comparison, and analysis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a phenomenon of local warming over urban areas, is the most well-known impact of urbanization on climate. Globally consistent estimates of the UHI intensity (UHII) are crucial for examining this phenomenon across time and space. However, publicly available UHII datasets are limited and have several constraints: (1) they are for clear-sky surface UHII, not all-sky surface UHII and canopy (air temperature) UHII; (2) the estimation methods often neglect anthropogenic disturbance, introducing uncertainties in the estimated UHII. To address these issues, this study proposes a new dynamic equal-area (DEA) method that can minimize the influence of various confounding factors on UHII estimates through a dynamic cyclic process. Utilizing the DEA method and leveraging various gridded temperature data, we develop a global-scale (>10,000 cities), long-term (over 20 years by month), and multi-faceted (clear-sky surface, all-sky surface, and canopy) UHII dataset. Further, based on these estimates, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the UHII and its trends in global cities. The UHII is found to be greater than zero in >80% of cities, with global annual average magnitudes around 1.0 °C (day) and 0.8 °C (night) for surface UHII, and close to 0.5 °C for canopy UHII. Furthermore, an interannual upward trend in UHII is observed in >60% of cities, with global annual average trends exceeding 0.1 °C/decade (day) and over 0.06 °C/decade (night) for surface UHII, and slightly surpassing 0.03 °C/decade for canopy UHII. Notably, there exists a positive correlation between the magnitude and trend of UHII, suggesting that cities with stronger UHII tend to experience faster growth in UHII. Additionally, discrepancies in UHII are found between different temperature data, stemming not only from distinctions in data types (surface or air temperature) but also from differences in data acquisition times (Terra or Aqua), weather conditions (clear-sky or all-sky), and processing methodologies (with or without gap filling). Overall, our proposed method, dataset, and analysis results have the potential to provide valuable insights for future urban climate studies. The UHII dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24821538.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enhanced Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relation to Typhoon Haiyan

Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Visayan Islands in the Philippines on November 8, 2013 was recorded as the strongest typhoon ever-observed using satellite data. Typhoons in the region usually originate from the mid-Pacific region that includes the Warm Pool, which is regarded as the warmest ocean surface region globally. Two study areas were considered: one in the Warm Pool Region and the other in the West Pacific Region near the Philippines. Among the most important factors that affect the strength of a typhoon are sea surface temperature (SST) and water vapor. It is remarkable that in November 2013 the average SST in the Warm Pool Region was the highest observed during the 1981 to 2014 period while that of the West Pacific Region was among the highest as well. Moreover, the increasing trend in SST was around 0.20C per decade in the warm pool region and even higher at 0.23C per decade in the West Pacific region. The yearly minimum SST has also been increasing suggesting that the temperature of the ocean mixed layer is also increasing. Further analysis indicated that water vapor, clouds, winds and sea level pressure for the same period did not reveal strong signals associated with the 2013 event. The SST is shown to be well-correlated with wind strength of historically strong typhoons in the country and the observed trends in SST suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan are likely to occur in the future.

warm pool↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Far-Infrared Polarization Spectrum of Ρ Ophiuchi A from HAWC+/SOFIA Observations

We report on polarimetric maps made with HAWC+/SOFIA toward ρ Oph A, the densest portion of the ρ Ophiuchi molecular complex. We employed HAWC+ bands C (89 μm) and D (154 μm). The slope of the polarization spectrum was investigated by defining the quantity R(sub DC) = p(sub D)/p(sub C), where p(sub C) and p(sub D) represent polarization degrees in bands C and D, respectively. We find a clear correlation between R(sub DC) and the molecular hydrogen column density across the cloud. A positive slope (R(sub DC) > 1) dominates the lower-density and well- illuminated portions of the cloud, which are heated by the high-mass star Oph S1, whereas a transition to a negative slope (R(sub DC) < 1) is observed toward the denser and less evenly illuminated cloud core. We interpret the trends as due to a combination of (1) warm grains at the cloud outskirts, which are efficiently aligned by the abundant exposure to radiation from Oph S1, as proposed in the radiative torques theory; and (2) cold grains deep in the cloud core, which are poorly aligned owing to shielding from external radiation. To assess this interpretation, we developed a very simple toy model using a spherically symmetric cloud core based on Herschel data and verified that the predicted variation of R(sub DC) is consistent with the observations. This result introduces a new method that can be used to probe the grain alignment efficiency in molecular clouds, based on the analysis of trends in the far-infrared polarization spectrum.

Santos, Fabio P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Study on Flow Condensation of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in a Micro-fin Aluminum Tube

This study investigates the dynamic shifts in refrigerant technologies driven by environmental regulations, particularly emphasizing low global warming potential (GWP). Moreover, there is a rising trend in the adoption of aluminum tubes with internal axial micro-fin structures in heat exchangers to reduce costs. The research focuses on the condensation process within an expanded axial micro-fin aluminum tube with a 5.96 mm fin-tip diameter. Various refrigerants are analyzed, including both single compounds (R-32, R-1234yf, R-1234ze(E)) and zeotropic mixtures (R-454B, R-454C, R-455A). Experimental procedures cover a range of condensation temperatures (35~45 °C), reduced pressures (0.21~0.55), and mass fluxes (150~350 kg/(m² s)), providing crucial data on heat transfer coefficients (HTC) and frictional pressure gradient (FPG). This data is particularly significant for high-glide refrigerants and is instrumental in the design of advanced air conditioning and refrigeration systems aimed at mitigating global warming.

Hu, Yifeng↗
NASA NTRS2014

Observations of Pronounced Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Warming and Implications for Runoff Production

Field measurements of shallow borehole temperatures in firn across the northern Greenland ice sheet are collected during May 2013. Sites first measured in 19521955 are revisited, showing long-term trends in firn temperature. Results indicate a pattern of substantial firn warming (up to +5.7C) at midlevel elevations (1400-2500 m) and little temperature change at high elevations (2500 m). We find that latent heat transport into the firn due to meltwater percolation drives the observed warming. Modeling shows that heat is stored at depth for several years, and energy delivered from consecutive melt events accumulates in the firn. The observed warming is likely not yet in equilibrium with recent melt production rates but captures the progression of sites in the percolation facies toward net runoff production.

ice sheet↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Time-Varying Ice Sheet Mask: Implications on Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Crustal Uplift

Mass-balance estimates of the polar ice sheets presently rely on static ice masks to identify the area under investigation. However, the vintage of available ice masks can differ by more than a decade and the resolution of the imagery used to delineate ice extent can differ by an order of magnitude, despite evidence of ongoing ice-sheet retreat. We show that using a fine resolution, time-varying ice mask significantly improves mass-balance estimates of the northwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet and affects interpretation of local crustal uplift. Accounting for ice margin retreat using a time-varying ice mask between 2003–2015 results in 1.0–6.8% less ice-sheet mass loss relative to assuming one of several existing static ice masks. This indicates that mass-balance estimates that use a static ice mask will progressively overestimate mass loss where the ice sheet is predominantly retreating, meaning a negative bias on mass-balance. This trend is anticipated to be amplified in a future warming scenario unless updated ice masks are incorporated. For altimetry-derived mass-balance estimates, this ice-mask induced bias approaches the magnitude of the ice-sheet-wide uncertainty presently associated with spatiotemporal variability in modeled firn compaction. Further, at five GNET stations, the ice-mask-induced bias is equivalent to 5–15% of the modeled uplift due to elastic deformation. Given present and projected negative trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass-balance and areal extent, we conclude that studies of its mass-balance should begin incorporating dynamic, periodically updated, fine-resolution ice masks. This methodological refinement will reduce bias in estimates of both ice-sheet mass-balance and crustal uplift.

Kristian K. Kjeldsen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systemic effects of rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit on plant physiology and productivity

Abstract Earth is currently undergoing a global increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a trend which is expected to continue as climate warms. This phenomenon has been associated with productivity decreases in ecosystems and yield penalties in crops, with these losses attributed to photosynthetic limitations arising from decreased stomatal conductance. Such VPD increases, however, have occurred over decades, which raises the possibility that stomatal acclimation to VPD plays an important role in determining plant productivity under high VPD. Furthermore, evidence points to more far‐ranging and complex effects of elevated VPD on plant physiology, extending to the anatomical, biochemical, and developmental levels, which could vary substantially across species. Because these complex effects are typically not considered in modeling frameworks, we conducted a quantitative literature review documenting temperature‐independent VPD effects on 112 species and 59 traits and physiological variables, in order to develop an integrated and mechanistic physiological framework. We found that VPD increase reduced yield and primary productivity, an effect that was partially mediated by stomatal acclimation, and also linked with changes in leaf anatomy, nutrient, and hormonal status. The productivity decrease was also associated with negative effects on reproductive development, and changes in architecture and growth rates that could decrease the evaporative surface or minimize embolism risk. Cross‐species quantitative relationships were found between levels of VPD increase and trait responses, and we found differences across plant groups, indicating that future VPD impacts will depend on community assembly and crop functional diversity. Our analysis confirms predictions arising from the hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, outlines a systemic physiological framework of plant responses to rising VPD, and provides recommendations for future research to better understand and mitigate VPD‐mediated climate change effects on ecosystems and agro‐systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reducing Model Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on High Latitude Carbon Assimilation

The Arctic Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO 2 . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Furthermore, we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

Prinn, R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Precision lower stratospheric temperature monitoring with the MSU - Technique, validation, and results 1979-1991

The stability of TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 4, which monitors the deep-layer averaged temperature of the lower stratosphere, is tested by intercalibrating MSU channel 4 data from the NIROS-N series of NOAA satellites during 1979-1991. The monthly gridpoint anomalies are validated with 10 years of radiosonde data during 1979-1988. The results demonstrated that the satellite sensors are very stable in their calibration and that the previously reported uncertainties in the stratospheric temperature information produced by NOAA are not the result of calibration changes in the MSUs. It was found that the largest globally averaged temperature variations during 1979-1991 occur after the El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions. These warm events are superimposed upon a net downward trend in temperatures during the period. The cooling trend is strongest in polar regions and the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Is Ice-Rafted Sediment in a North Pole Marine Record Evidence for Perennial Sea-ice Cover?

Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (approximately 88 degrees N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from the middle Miocene onwards. However, other high latitude land and marine records indicate a long-term trend towards cooling broken by periods of extensive warming suggestive of a seasonally ice-free Arctic between the Miocene and the present. We use a coupled sea-ice slab-ocean model including sediment transport tracers to map the spatial distribution of ice-rafted deposits in the Arctic Ocean. We use 6 hourly wind forcing and surface heat fluxes for two different climates: one with a perennial sea-ice cover similar to that of the present day and one with seasonally ice-free conditions, similar to that simulated in future projections. Model results confirm that in the present-day climate, sea ice takes more than 1 year to transport sediment from all its peripheral seas to the North Pole. However, in a warmer climate, sea-ice speeds are significantly faster (for the same wind forcing) and can deposit sediments of Laptev, East Siberian and perhaps also Beaufort Sea origin at the North Pole. This is primarily because of the fact that sea-ice interactions are much weaker with a thinner ice cover and there is less resistance to drift. We conclude that the presence of ice-rafted sediment of Eurasian and North American origin at the North Pole does not imply a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, reconciling the ACEX ocean core data with other land and marine records.

Palaeoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2017

Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

Richardson, T. B.↗