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At least 217 records · Page 12

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into dual-functional modification for water stability enhancement of mesoporous zirconium metal–organic frameworks

The stability of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in water affects their ability to function as chemical catalysts, their capacity as adsorbents for separations in water vapor presence, and their usefulness as recyclable water harvesters. Here, we have examined water stability of four node-modified variants of the mesoporous MOF, NU-1000, namely formate-, Acac-, TFacac-, and Facac-NU-1000, comparing these with node-accessible NU-1000. These NU-1000 variants present ligands grafted to NU-1000's hexa-Zr(IV)-oxy nodes by displacing terminal aqua and hydroxo ligands. Facac-NU-1000, containing the most hydrophobic ligands, showed the greatest water stability, being able to undergo at least 20 water adsorption/desorption cycles without loss of water uptake capacity. Computational studies revealed dual salutary functions of installed Facac ligands: (1) enhancement of framework mechanical stability due to electrostatic interactions; and (2) transformation and shielding of the otherwise highly hydrophilic nodes from H-bonding interactions with free water, presumably leading to weaker channel-stressing capillary forces during water evacuation – consistent with trends in free energies of dehydration across the NU-1000 variants. Water harvesting and hydrolysis of chemical warfare agent simulants were examined to gauge the functional consequences of modification and mechanical stabilization of NU-1000 by Facac ligands. The studies revealed a harvesting capacity of ~1.1 L of water vapor per gram of Facac-NU-1000 per sorption cycle. They also revealed retention of catalytic MOF activity following 20 water uptake and release cycles. This study provides insights into the basis for node-ligand-engendered stabilization of wide-channel MOFs against collapse during water removal.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high-resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED-2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED-2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative life cycle assessment of remote potable water supply for the Department of Defense

The Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies, including relief organizations, require potable water for remote missions around the globe. As part of recent initiative by the U.S. Federal government through Executive Order 14057, the DOD has been instructed to investigate the sustainability of operations and practices within the context of climate change. One such practice that needs to be addressed is the procurement of potable water, an essential requirement of any remote mission or location. Currently, there are three primary means of procuring potable water at remote locations: bottled water, on-site purification, or tie-in to existing, local infrastructure. The first two operations are often considered the most secure options, but have sustainability concerns. The purpose of this study is to compare the environmental impacts of bottled water procurement versus on-site treatment via a mobile Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU), which uses multiple levels of filtration to make potable water from a local source. A cradle-to-gate assessment was developed for both systems to compare different options for potable water supply. An in person inventory was paired with data taken from the Ecoinvent 3.8 database to directly compare the two systems. The two systems are compared on a 5-year timeline to analyze the environmental impact of repeated bottled water transport versus diesel generator-fueled on-site treatment. Across all impact categories, the results indicate that high energy costs of the reverse osmosis process have significantly less impact on the environment than the repetitive transport and procurement of bottled water. The results of the study have important implications for advancing sustainable operations for remote communities or temporary settlements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using stable isotopes to inform water resource management in forested and agricultural ecosystems

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reactor and fuel cycle performance of light water reactor fuel with 235 U enrichments above 5%

Recent advances in nuclear fuel materials research, particularly on the topic of accident-tolerant fuels, have brought up potential opportunities for expanding the operating envelope of existing light water reactors. As many of the performance improvements offered by these technologies may be most fully realized by increasing fuel enrichment beyond the standard 5% limit, this paper examines the potential reactor performance and fuel cycle performance of low-enriched uranium oxide fueled light water reactors by generically considering pressurized water reactors with 235 U enrichment from 5 to 7%. Advanced cladding, including accident-tolerant cladding, has the potential to increase fuel burnup limits related to hydrogen in the cladding that coincide with those limits associated with end-of-life reactivity. Therefore, higher enrichment will be necessary in order to realize the higher fuel burnups. This work includes evaluation of the fuel cycle length, discharge burnup, reactivity coefficients, and fuel cycle performance, including radioactive waste and environmental impact metrics per unit energy generated. The analysis was performed using the evaluation metrics from the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening Study. The reactor performance and safety analysis show that enrichments between 5 and 7% would have similar fuel temperature and moderator temperature coefficients. However, the soluble boron coefficient would decrease in magnitude, requiring more corrosive boric acid in the coolant or other methods of reactivity control during the fuel cycle. At these higher enrichments the maximum burnup at the rim of the fuel pellet would increase by almost a factor of two, which is expected to impact the formation of high-burnup structure in the fuel and the corresponding thermo-mechanical fuel properties. The fuel cycle performance assessment shows that increasing enrichment reduces the quantity of high-level waste disposed per unit energy generated, but it increases the natural resource requirements normalized to a gigawatt-electricity-per-year basis. Another impact is the slightly higher discharge burnup, resulting in somewhat different activity levels of the spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste radioactivity at 100 and 100,000 years after fuel discharge. The environmental impacts—including land use, water use, carbon emission, and radiological exposure—are of the same magnitude per unit energy generated. Finally, however, the impacts are distributed differently. Less than 5% enrichment has marginally more impact on the back-end of the fuel cycle, and greater than 5% enrichment has marginally more impact on the front-end of the fuel cycle. Ultimately, no neutronic or reactor safety hindrances to employing light water reactor fuel with enrichments greater than 5% are identified; given the achievable reactor performance benefits with advanced fuels, further practical exploration of increased enrichment fuel is recommended.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple biomarkers highlight the importance of water column processes in treatment wetland organic matter cycling

A suite of biomarkers, including amino acids, pigments, and lignin phenols coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry were used to evaluate differences in the sources and fate of organic matter (OM) in Everglades treatment wetlands as a model for OM cycling in shallow water wetlands. Five components of the system (water column particulate organic matter, vertical traps, flocculent material, periphyton, and surface soil) were assessed for OM transformations down-profile (i.e. water column to soil) and between treatment cells dominated by emergent aquatic vegetation (EAV) and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), with comparisons to reference sites that resemble historic Everglades conditions. We found that OM cycling is fundamentally different between EAV and SAV wetlands, and that SAV wetlands have some shared characteristics with similar habitats in the Everglades. Other than locations densely populated by Typha spp., water column particulate organic C was derived from microbial/cryptomonad sources, rather than macroscopic sources (vascular plants and algal mats). Bacterial amino acid biomarkers were positively correlated with amino acid degradation indices and organic P (Po), respectively suggesting that microbial abundance is associated with "fresher" OM, and that further investigation into relationships between microbial biomass and Po is warranted. Overall, this multi-biomarker approach can evaluate the relative "freshness" of OM pools, identify sources of OM, and highlight the importance of water column processes in shallow water wetlands.

treatment wetlands, organic matter, Everglades, am↗

Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of small water resource recovery facilities: Comparison of mechanical and lagoon systems

Small water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) serving communities with populations of less than 10,000 people account for 70% of centralized wastewater treatment systems in the United States. Here, with growing interest globally in improving the sustainability of these systems, this study evaluated the environmental life cycle impact and land use tradeoffs of different lagoon and mechanical WRRFs across the diverse climate of Nebraska. Life cycle inventory including construction and operations was collected for 35 existing systems representing a range of commonly used mechanical WRRFs: oxidation ditch, extended aeration, and sequencing batch reactors, and lagoon treatment systems: complete retention, irrigation, and controlled discharge lagoons.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Oxidation Resistance in High Temperature Alloy Selection for a Future with Green Hydrogen

Hydrogen is being considered integral to the future energy landscape but there is limited mechanistic understanding and a lack of predictive models to describe the combined effects of alloy and gas composition, temperature, thermal cycling and water vapor contents on the oxidation behavior of high-temperature materials. Experimental evaluations were combined with coupled thermodynamic-kinetic modeling to investigate the oxidation behavior of five representative Ni-based superalloys in two water vapor contents (10%, 60% H 2 O) under thermal cycling (1-h, 100-h cyles) conditions at 800°C and 1000°C. The alloy with the highest Ti content demonstrated the poorest cyclic oxidation behavior while the alloy with highest Cr and Al contents was expected to continue to support protective formation of a compact Al 2 O 3 scale. Finally, accelerated degradation of the chromia-forming alloys was observed in the higher water vapor content but the impact on transient oxidation of the alumina-forming alloys needs further investigations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs

Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office hosted the Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop on Jan. 23–24, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The event brought together representatives from water resource recovery facilities, national laboratories, technology providers, academic researchers, industry consultants, and government agencies, to gather input on the challenges and opportunities in greenhouse gas measurement at water resource recovery facilities and how to effectively leverage future DOE efforts to reduce these uncertainties through potential measurement campaign(s). This report is a summary of the views expressed by individual participants during the workshop; it is not intended to represent DOE’s views or programmatic priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NEAMS Burnup Extension Accomplishments and Remaining Modeling Gaps

The economic viability of light-water reactors (LWRs) in the United States is declining in heavily subsidized markets, and as a result, the nuclear industry is looking for opportunities to enhance the economic competitiveness of nuclear power. This is not a foreign concept to the nuclear industry: in the mid-2000s, the nuclear industry set out to achieve zero fuel failures by 2010. The goal in this effort was to drive down the cost of reactor shut down by replacing a pin or bundle in response to fuel rod failure. 2010 brought about the initiative to deliver the nuclear promise to reduce operating cost by 30% to improve nuclear energy’s economic competitiveness before 2020. The emergence of accident-tolerant fuel also offers the nuclear industry an opportunity to build on these past successes and deliver affordable, clean energy. Accident-tolerant fuel has been shown to provide superior performance compared to traditional Zircaloy/UO2 fuel concepts, offering the unique ability to remove operational limitations that inhibit the economic viability of nuclear power. This has led the industry to begin building a technical case to extend the peak rod average burnup beyond 62 GWd/tU to extend pressurized water reactor cycle lengths to 24 months and to develop more efficient boiling water reactor core designs. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program mission is to develop advanced modeling and simulation tools and capabilities to accelerate the deployment of advanced nuclear energy technologies. The primary safety concern inhibiting the nuclear industry from extending burnup is related to high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal. Therefore, the NEAMS program developed a targeted 5-year plan to support the industry’s efforts to extend burnup. This milestone report summarizes the 5-year plan that was enacted in FY20, followed by a discussion of the ongoing activates required to fulfill the 5-year plan, as well as the approach to address the current modeling gaps. Additionally, an LWR stakeholder meeting was held to communicate work performed in the NEAMS program over the past three years, to assess the LWR community’s perspective on the impact of the program, and to identify remaining significant gaps in the NEAMS suite of capabilities. This engagement will be documented by the Electric Power Research Institute and used by NEAMS to redirect current LWR scope as needed and to develop the next phase for LWR research and development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗