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NASA NTRS2012

Direct Radiative Effect of Mineral Dust on the Development of African Easterly Wave in Late Summer, 2003-2007

Episodic events of both Saharan dust outbreaks and African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are observed to move westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the warm, dry, and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on the nearby storms has been the subject of considerable debate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the radiative effect of dust on the development of AEWs during August and September, the months of maximum tropical cyclone activity, in years 2003-2007. The simulations show that dust radiative forcing enhances the convective instability of the environment. As a result, most AEWs intensify in the presence of a dust layer. The Lorenz energy cycle analysis reveals that the dust radiative forcing enhances the condensational heating, which elevates the zonal and eddy available potential energy. In turn, available potential energy is effectively converted to eddy kinetic energy, in which local convective overturning plays the primary role. The magnitude of the intensification effect depends on the initial environmental conditions, including moisture, baroclinity, and the depth of the boundary layer. We conclude that dust radiative forcing, albeit small, serves as a catalyst to promote local convection that facilitates AEW development.

Ma, Po-Lun↗

NASA NTRS1984

Potential advantages of the spaced antenna method for operational wind profiling, part 3.1B

The problem of very short-range forecasting is twofold. It is necessary to understand the processes that are being forecasted, and data appropriate to the scale of interest has to be generated. Coherent VHF and UHF radars are being used for operational wind profiling and are providing part of the solution to the data-acquisition problem. The Profiler system operated by the Wave Propagation Laboratory at NOAA has already shown great promise. As a result, plans are being considred for expanding the network of radars to cover a larger area of the country. The Profiler uses what is commonly referred to as the Doppler method for measuring winds. Two beams are pointed off-vertical, and the Doppler shift of the echo determines the line-of-sight velocity. The velocity components along the beams are then translated to horizontal wind components. A number of possible advantages of the spaced antennas (SA) method for operational wind profiling are discussed.

Rottger, J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Interaction of Solar wind Discontinuities with the Earth's Bow Shock

Funding from NASA Grant No. NAG54679 was received in three installments. The first year's installment amounted to only one month of salary support and was used to prepare survey plots. The second year's installment allowed us to complete two research papers concerning the interaction of solar wind discontinuities with the Earth's bow shock. In the first (published) paper, we reported that the discontinuities launch slow mode waves into the magnetosheath and the slow mode waves always propagate antisunward through the flank magnetosheath. Because the sunward/antisunward sense of the magnetosheath magnetic field reverses across local noon, so does the (north/south or east/west) sense of the velocity fluctuations associated with the waves. Wind, Geotail, and IMP-8 observations were used for this study. In the second study, we used Wind and Interball-1 observations to demonstrate that pressure pulses in the magnetosheath occur in pairs and that they bound pressure cavities and/or brief intervals of outward magnetopause motion. This paper is now in press. Funding from the third year's installment has been used to investigate the two aspects of the foreshock. Two manuscripts are now in preparation for submission to the Journal of Geophysical Research. The first reports that waves within the foreshock account for many instances of poor correlations between two solar wind monitors. Remaining cases of poor correlation occur during intervals of nearly constant IMF orientations and magnetic field strengths. While the former category pose a significant difficulty for space weather forecasts, the latter do not. The second study surveys IMP-8 observations of the foreshock. We find that diamagnetic cavities are common, particularly during periods of high solar wind velocity and low solar wind density. Plasma densities, temperatures, and magnetic field strengths fall during intervals of enhanced energetic particle fluxes. The cavities are bounded by regions of decelerated solar wind plasma and enhanced densities and magnetic field strengths.

Sibeck, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread power outages which negatively affected the detection efficiency and operation of the NALMA. Therefore, additional storms from 2008-2010 with tracks of at least 20 miles were analyzed for comparison purposes.

Carcione, Brian C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Microphysics and Radiation Effect of Dust on Saharan Air Layer: An HS3 Case Study

A Saharan air layer (SAL) event associated with a nondeveloping African easterly wave (AEW) over the main development region of the eastern Atlantic was sampled by the NASA Global Hawk aircraft on 24-25 August 2013 during the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign and was simulated with the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model. Airborne, ground-based, and spaceborne measurements were used to evaluate the model performance. The microphysical and radiative effects of dust and other aerosols on the SAL structure and environment were investigated with the factor-separation method. The results indicate that relative to a simulation without dust-radiative and microphysical impacts, Saharan dust and other aerosols heated the SAL air mainly through shortwave heating by the direct aerosol-radiation (AR) effect, resulting in a warmer (up to 0.6 K) and drier (up to 5% RH reduction) SAL and maintaining the strong temperature inversion at the base of the SAL in the presence of predominant longwave cooling. Radiative heating of the dust accentuated a vertical circulation within the dust layer, in which air rose (sank) in the northern (southern) portions of the dust layer. Furthermore, above and to the south of the dust layer, both the microphysical and radiative impacts of dust tended to counter the vertical motions associated with the Hadley circulation, causing a small weakening and southward shift of convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and reduced anvil cloud to the north. Changes in moisture and cloud/precipitation hydrometeors were largely driven by the dust induced changes in vertical motion. Dust strengthened the African easterly jet by up to ~1ms(exp -1) at the southern edge of the jet, primarily through the AR effect, and produced modest increases in vertical wind shear within and in the vicinity of the dust layer. These modulations of the SAL and AEW environment clearly contributed to the nondevelopment of this AEW.

Tao, Zhining↗

NASA NTRS1994

Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

Taylor, Gregory E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Looking at Earth from Space: Teacher's Guide with Activities for Earth and Space Science

The Maryland Pilot Earth Science and Technology Education Network (MAPS-NET) project was sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to enrich teacher preparation and classroom learning in the area of Earth system science. This publication includes a teacher's guide that replicates material taught during a graduate-level course of the project and activities developed by the teachers. The publication was developed to provide teachers with a comprehensive approach to using satellite imagery to enhance science education. The teacher's guide is divided into topical chapters and enables teachers to expand their knowledge of the atmosphere, common weather patterns, and remote sensing. Topics include: weather systems and satellite imagery including mid-latitude weather systems; wave motion and the general circulation; cyclonic disturbances and baroclinic instability; clouds; additional common weather patterns; satellite images and the internet; environmental satellites; orbits; and ground station set-up. Activities are listed by suggested grade level and include the following topics: using weather symbols; forecasting the weather; cloud families and identification; classification of cloud types through infrared Automatic Picture Transmission (APT) imagery; comparison of visible and infrared imagery; cold fronts; to ski or not to ski (imagery as a decision making tool), infrared and visible satellite images; thunderstorms; looping satellite images; hurricanes; intertropical convergence zone; and using weather satellite images to enhance a study of the Chesapeake Bay. A list of resources is also included.

Steele, Colleen↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Introduction to the NASA GMAO Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System - GEOS-S2S Version 3

Recently NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a new Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction system Version 3 (GEOS-S2S-3). This upgrade replaces the GEOS-S2S-2 which is NASA's current contribution to the North American Multi-Model Experiment seasonal prediction project (Kirtman et al., 2014). The main improvements for our S2S-3 system include 1) a higher resolution MOM5 (Griffies et al., 2005) ocean model (now 0.25o x 0.25o x 50 layers), 2) an improved atmospheric/ocean interface layer (Akella and Suarez, 2018), and 3) assimilation of a long-track satellite salinity into the ocean model (Hackert et al, 2019). Atmospheric forcing is provided by the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (Gelaro et al., 2017). Initialization for the ocean relies on the GMAO ocean reanalysis system which assimilates all available in situ temperature and salinity, satellite sea surface salinity, and sea level using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) implementation of (Penny et al., 2013) on a 5 day assimilation cycle with 20 fixed ensemble members.In this presentation, we will authenticate our new S2S-3 ocean reanalysis using standard GODAE validation metrics. For example, we will compare gridded fields of mean and standard deviation of the ocean reanalysis versus observed fields. We will show correlation/RMS of model versus observations and temperature and salinity mean profiles for the various basins and latitude bands. Basin-scale volume transports, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow will be validated. Equatorial ocean waves will be compared by decomposing sea level into Kelvin and Rossby components. For each of these metrics, we plan to validate the results and then compare our new S2S-3 against the current production version, S2S-2. Finally, we will compare 9-month seasonal forecasts initialized from these two systems for the tropical Pacific NINO3.4 region over the period 1981-present.

Molod, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS1988

Assessment of recent resolution and parameterization changes in the GLA fourth order GCM

The Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres' fourth-order GCM is under evaluation for the impact on model integrations of enhanced horizontal and vertical resolution, as well as the effects of such novel parameterization schemes as that of gravity-wave-drag, the Arakawa-Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization, and an explicitly-resolved planetary boundary layer. While the doubling of the GMC's horizontal resolution to 2 deg in latitude and 2.5 deg in longitude has improved the model's predictive skill for 6-7 day forecasts, systematic errors associated with the model's climate drift lead to a deterioration in predictions for longer forecasts.

Helfand, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Update on Experimental Climate Prediction and Analysis Products Being Developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2013

Suomi NPP VIIRS Prelaunch and On-orbit Geometric Calibration and Characterization

The Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor was launched 28 October 2011 on the Suomi National Polarorbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. VIIRS has 22 spectral bands covering the spectrum between 0.412 m and 12.01 m, including 16 moderate resolution bands (M-bands) with a spatial resolution of 750 m at nadir, 5 imaging resolution bands (I-bands) with a spatial resolution of 375 m at nadir, and 1 day-night band (DNB) with a near-constant 750 m spatial resolution throughout the scan. These bands are located in a visible and near infrared (VisNIR) focal plane assembly (FPA), a short- and mid-wave infrared (SWMWIR) FPA and a long-wave infrared (LWIR) FPA. All bands, except the DNB, are co-registered for proper environmental data records (EDRs) retrievals. Observations from VIIRS instrument provide long-term measurements of biogeophysical variables for climate research and polar satellite data stream for the operational communitys use in weather forecasting and disaster relief and other applications. Well Earth-located (geolocated) instrument data is important to retrieving accurate biogeophysical variables. This paper describes prelaunch pointing and alignment measurements, and the two sets of on-orbit correction of geolocation errors, the first of which corrected error from 1,300 m to within 75 m (20 I-band pixel size), and the second of which fine tuned scan angle dependent errors, bringing VIIRS geolocation products to high maturity in one and a half years of the SNPP VIIRS on-orbit operations. Prelaunch calibration and the on-orbit characterization of sensor spatial impulse responses and band-to-band co-registration (BBR) are also described.

Geolocation↗

NASA NTRS2021

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August to mid- September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the mid-stratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-one activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Antarctic Oscillation↗

NASA NTRS1984

Effect of high latitude filtering on NWP skill

The high latitude filtering techniques commonly employed in global grid point models to eliminate the high frequency waves associated with the convergence of meridians, can introduce serious distortions which ultimately affect the solution at all latitudes. Experiments completed so far with the 4 deg x 5 deg, 9-level GLAS Fourth Order Model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects only minimally its forecasting skill. In one case, however, the use of pressure gradient filter significantly improved the forecast. Three day forecasts with the pressure gradient and operational filters are compared as are 5-day forecasts with no filter.

Kalnay, E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Vector Electric Field Instrument on the C/NOFS Satellite

We provide an overview of the Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. VEFI is a NASA GSFC instrument designed 1) to investigate the role of the ambient electric fields in initiating nighttime ionospheric density depletions and turbulence; 2) to determine the electric fields associated with abrupt, large amplitude, density depletions and 3) to quantify the spectrum of the wave electric fields and plasma densities (irregularities) associated with density depletions or Equatorial Spread-F. The VEFI instrument includes a vector electric field double probe detector, a Langmuir trigger probe, a flux gate magnetometer, a lightning detector and associated electronics. The heart of the instrument is the set of double probe detectors designed to measure DC and AC electric fields using 6 identical, mutually orthogonal, deployable 9.5 m booms tipped with 10 cm diameter spheres containing embedded preamplifiers. A description of the instrument and its sensors will be presented. If available, representative measurements will be provided.

Pfaff, R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Meteorological and operational aspects of 46 clear air turbulence sampling missions with an instrument B-57B aircraft. Volume 1: Program summary

The results of 46 clear air turbulence (CAT) probing missions conducted with an extensively instrumented B-57B aircraft are summarized. Turbulence samples were obtained under diverse conditions including mountain waves, jet streams, upper level fronts and troughs, and low altitude mechanical and thermal turbulence. CAT was encouraged on 20 flights comprising 77 data runs. In all, approximately 4335 km were flown in light turbulence, 1415 km in moderate turbulence, and 255 km in severe turbulence during the program. The flight planning, operations, and turbulence forecasting aspects conducted with the B-57B aircraft are presented.

Davis, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Angular momentum exchange among the solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans: A case study of the 1982-1983 El Nino event

The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

Dickey, J. O.↗