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NASA NTRS2004

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

Elgin, Peter D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Graphical METARS on Pilots' Weather Judgment

VFR flight into IMC conditions accounts for over 10% of general aviation fatalities each year. Recent research suggests that pilots may not properly assess weather conditions. New graphical weather information systems (GWISs) may positively or negatively influence pilot weather-related judgments. Since GWIS information is not always current it may not be veritical. In the current investigation twenty-four GA pilots made visibility and ceiling estimates of simulated weather conditions either with or without a GWIS display. Pilots generally overestimated weather conditions and their judgments were influenced by the GWIS. The results revealed an interaction between ceiling and visibility that suggests a new model for understanding VFR flight into IMC. The current results suggest an important area for future research into understanding pilots decisions to continue into deteriorating weather conditions. Results are discussed in terms of advancing aviation decision making models for understanding VFR into IMC flight, and the design of GWIS symbology to foster accurate assessments.

Coyne, Joseph T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗

NASA NTRS2007

Weathering of Thermal Control Coatings

Spacecraft radiators reject heat to their surroundings. Radiators can be deployable or mounted on the body of the spacecraft. NASA's Crew Exploration Vehicle is to use body mounted radiators. Coatings play an important role in heat rejection. The coatings provide the radiator surface with the desired optical properties of low solar absorptance and high infrared emittance. These specialized surfaces are applied to the radiator panel in a number of ways, including conventional spraying, plasma spraying, or as an applique. Not specifically designed for a weathering environment, little is known about the durability of conventional paints, coatings, and appliques upon exposure to weathering and subsequent exposure to solar wind and ultraviolet radiation exposure. In addition to maintaining their desired optical properties, the coatings must also continue to adhere to the underlying radiator panel. This is a challenge, as new composite radiator panels are being considered as replacements for the aluminum panels used previously. Various thermal control paints, coatings, and appliques were applied to aluminum and isocyanate ester composite coupons and were exposed for 30 days at the Atmospheric Exposure Site of the Kennedy Space Center s Beach Corrosion Facility for the purpose of identifying their durability to weathering. Selected coupons were subsequently exposed to simulated solar wind and vacuum ultraviolet radiation to identify the effect of a simulated space environment on the as-weathered surfaces. Optical properties and adhesion testing were used to document the durability of the paints and coatings. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the weathering testing and to summarize the durability of several thermal control paints, coatings, and appliques to weathering and postweathering environments.

Jaworske, Donald A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Cockpit weather information system

Weather information, periodically collected from throughout a global region, is periodically assimilated and compiled at a central source and sent via a high speed data link to a satellite communication service, such as COMSAT. That communication service converts the compiled weather information to GSDB format, and transmits the GSDB encoded information to an orbiting broadcast satellite, INMARSAT, transmitting the information at a data rate of no less than 10.5 kilobits per second. The INMARSAT satellite receives that data over its P-channel and rebroadcasts the GDSB encoded weather information, in the microwave L-band, throughout the global region at a rate of no less than 10.5 KB/S. The transmission is received aboard an aircraft by means of an onboard SATCOM receiver and the output is furnished to a weather information processor. A touch sensitive liquid crystal panel display allows the pilot to select the weather function by touching a predefined icon overlain on the display's surface and in response a color graphic display of the weather is displayed for the pilot.

Tu, Jeffrey Chen-Yu↗

NASA NTRS2003

Image processing for hazard recognition in on-board weather radar

A method of providing weather radar images to a user includes obtaining radar image data corresponding to a weather radar image to be displayed. The radar image data is image processed to identify a feature of the weather radar image which is potentially indicative of a hazardous weather condition. The weather radar image is displayed to the user along with a notification of the existence of the feature which is potentially indicative of the hazardous weather condition. Notification can take the form of textual information regarding the feature, including feature type and proximity information. Notification can also take the form of visually highlighting the feature, for example by forming a visual border around the feature. Other forms of notification can also be used.

Kelly, Wallace E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Models at the CCMC And Their Capabilities

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community-provided, space weather-relevant, model suite, which resides at CCMC. We will discuss current capabilities, and analyze expected future developments of space weather related modeling.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2008

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weathering in the Inner Solar System

"Space weathering" is the term given to the cumulative effects incurred by surfaces which are exposed to the harsh environment of space. Lunar sample studies over the last decade or so have produced a clear picture of space weathering processes in the lunar environment. By combining laboratory and remote spectra with microanalytical methods (scanning and transmission electron microscopy), we have begun to unravel the various processes (irradiation, micrometeorite bombardment, etc) that contribute to space weathering and the physical and optical consequences of those processes on the Moon. Using the understanding gleaned from lunar samples, it is possible to extrapolate weathering processes to other airless bodies from which we have not yet returned samples (i.e. Mercury, asteroids). Through experiments which simulate various components of weathering, the expected differences in environment (impact rate, distance from Sun, presence of a magnetic field, reduced or enhanced gravity, etc) and composition (particularly iron content) can be explored to understand how space weathering will manifest on a given body.

Noble, Sarah K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Services at Goddard Space Flight Center

The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) forms a focal point at GSFC for the generation of space weather tools and information. This information is based on data from space mission and ground observatories, as well as on forefront model calculations conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). CCMC works with the research community to bring to bear the power of communitydeveloped space science models on space weather problems. Data from primarily from NASA missions but also from NOAA and other partner agencies are combined with model results into a fully configurable space weather information display by means of the iSWA system. This information and iSWA form the basis for and SWL-provided service to NASA's robotic mission fleet, which includes forecasts, regular updates, and warnings. This service benefits from a strong partnership with NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group, and with the US Air Force Weather Agency. In this presentation, we provide a summary of space weather capabilities and services and we present an outlook into the future.

Hesse, M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Precipitation Characteristics of ISCCP Tropical Weather States

We examine the daytime precipitation characteristics of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states in the extended tropics (35 deg S to 35 deg N) for a 10-year period. Our main precipitation data set is the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 data set, but Global Precipitation Climatology Project daily data are also used for comparison. We find that the most convective weather state (WS1), despite an occurrence frequency below 10%, is the most dominant state with regard to surface precipitation, producing both the largest mean precipitation rates when present and the largest percent contribution to the total precipitation of the tropical zone of our study; yet, even this weather state appears to not precipitate about half the time. WS1 exhibits a modest annual cycle of domain-average precipitation rate, but notable seasonal shifts in its geographic distribution. The precipitation rates of the other weather states tend to be stronger when occurring before or after WS1. The relative contribution of the various weather states to total precipitation is different between ocean and land, with WS1 producing more intense precipitation on average over ocean than land. The results of this study, in addition to advancing our understanding of the current state of tropical precipitation, can serve as a higher order diagnostic test on whether it is distributed realistically among different weather states in atmospheric models.

Lee, Dongmin↗

NASA NTRS2012

Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories

Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX), and Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) services now provide a wide range of inner heliospheric spacecraft data that can be applied to space weathering of potential exploration destinations including the Moon, asteroids, and the moons of Mars, as well to radiation hazard assessment for the spacecraft and human explorers. For example, the new VEPO service for time-averaging of multi-source ion flux spectra enables the specification of composite flux spectra from a variety of ongoing and legacy missions for applications to surface interaction modeling. Apollo to Artemis data resources of LunaSOX enable specific space weathering investigations for the Moon, while VHO more generally covers the space field and plasma environments of the inner and outer solar system from the sunward-most perihelia of the twin Helios spacecraft to the ongoing heliosheath passages of the twin Voyagers. Composite multi-source spectra from VEPO can also be applied to the continuing compilation of accumulated 1-AU fluence spectra, mostly contributed by solar wind plasma and energetic particle events, for determination of time-averaged particle compositional and kinetic energy output from the Sun and for modeling of long-term irradiation impacts on planetary surfaces.

Cooper, John F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Ghrist, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2013

SPoRT: Transitioning NASA and NOAA Experimental Data to the Operational Weather Community

Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. With the ever-broadening application of real-time high resolution satellite data from current EOS, Suomi NPP, and planned JPSS and GOES-R sensors to weather forecast problems, significant challenges arise in the acquisition, delivery, and integration of the new capabilities into the decision making process of the operational weather community. For polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, and CRiS, the use of direct broadcast ground stations is key to the real-time delivery of the data and derived products in a timely fashion. With the ABI on the geostationary GOES-R satellite, the data volumes will likely increase by a factor of 5-10 from current data streams. However, the high data volume and limited bandwidth of end user facilities presents a formidable obstacle to timely access to the data. This challenge can be addressed through the use of subsetting techniques, innovative web services, and the judicious selection of data formats. Many of these approaches have been implemented by SPoRT for the delivery of real-time products to NWS forecast offices and other weather entities. Once available in decision support systems like AWIPS II, these new data and products must be integrated into existing and new displays that allow for the integration of the data with existing operational products in these systems. SPoRT is leading the way in demonstrating this enhanced capability. This paper will highlight the ways SPoRT is overcoming many of the challenges presented by the enormous data volumes of current and future satellite systems to get unique high quality research data into the operational weather environment.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Large-Scale Extratropical Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗