Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “weibull”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemically induced fracture in LLZO: How the interplay between flaw density and electrostatic potential affects operability

Fracture and short circuit in the Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) solid electrolyte are two key issues that prevent its adoption in battery cells. In this paper, we utilize phase-field simulations that couple electrochemistry and fracture to evaluate the maximum electric potential that LLZO electrolytes can support as a function of crack density. In the case of a single crack, we find that the applied potential at the onset of crack propagation exhibits inverse square root scaling with respect to crack length, analogous to classical fracture mechanics. Here, we further find that the short-circuit potential scales linearly with crack length. In the realistic case where the solid electrolyte contains multiple cracks, we reveal that failure fits the Weibull model. The failure distributions shift to favor failure at lower overpotentials as areal crack density increases. Furthermore, when flawless interfacial buffers are placed between the applied potential and the bulk of the electrolyte, failure is mitigated. When constant currents are applied, current focuses in near-surface flaws, leading to crack propagation and short circuit. We find that buffered samples sustain larger currents without reaching unstable overpotentials and without failing. Our findings suggest several mitigation strategies for improving the ability of LLZO to support larger currents and improve operability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the scale of heterogeneity in composite electrodes of batteries

An electrode in cylindrical or pouch cell batteries contains millions of active particles embedded in a conductive network. Battery performance, such as voltage, capacity, and cyclic efficiency, is a collective response of the particle network. We use optical microscopy to measure the local, heterogeneous state of charge of individual particles upon charging and discharging. The optical reflectivity is proportional to Li composition in the ternary oxide LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) cathode. Through clustering analysis, we determine the scale of heterogeneity where a representative volume in the composite electrode contains 100 to 1,000 particles. The heterogeneous activity in the particle network can be described by Weibull defect population at the particle interface with the conductive matrix.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRISO Burnup-Dependent Failure Analysis of a HTGR Design-Basis Accident Using BISON

Here, this work assesses the failure behavior of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles with BISON during both steady-state and transient conditions for the MHTGR-350 design by General Atomics. A one-dimensional BISON model for a uranium oxycarbide–bearing TRISO is developed to simulate a power level of 50 mW/particles up to 12.4% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Stress predictions for the materials of interest are presented as a function of burnup, along with the SiC failure probability computed using Weibull statistics under the assumption of realistic SiC quality.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uniform Mechanical Loading Can Test for Nonuniform Loading Durability

In this work, we present a method to evaluate the equivalency between any module mechanical loading conditions. The method is developed to address the specific failure mode of glass fracture and is based on Weibull analysis and weakest link theory. It considers the varying stress profile across the module to calculate the probability of glass fracture, which is used as the metric of equivalency. An idealized nonuniform loading scheme is employed to demonstrate the method and introduce the concept of the equivalent uniform load factor: a factor applied to the maximum pressure of the nonuniform load to obtain the equivalent uniform load value. It is demonstrated that this factor is less than unity for all nonuniform load cases considered, including snow and various characters of wind loading. These significant results suggest that uniform loading may be reliably, and practically, employed to evaluate photovoltaic module glass for nonuniform loading durability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Representative Modules for Accelerated Thermal Cycling and Static Load Testing

In this work, we explore the influence of module size on the rate of interconnect solder bond thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage and the probability of cell fracture. For the solder bond TMF damage evaluation, structural mechanics models of crystalline silicon PV models are created to solve with the Finite Element Method. For the probability of cell fracture evaluation, Weibull analysis and weakest link theory are employed to resolve the probability of crystalline silicon PV cell fracture when measured as bare cells and when stressed in reduced- and full-sized modules. Results conclusively demonstrate that the rate of solder bond TMF damage is independent of module size, interconnect location across the cell and cell location across the module and that smaller, representative, modules must be loaded to a much higher level than their parent full-sized modules to achieve an equivalent driving force for cell fracture.

accelerated testing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cracked Gridline Wear Out Follows a Power Law

Cracks can form in Silicon solar cells in photovoltaic modules due to mechanical stresses arising from various extrinsic factors like handling and weather. While the immediate performance degradation may be minor, continuous loading overtime will degrade module performance. One probable reason is gridline surface wear across the cracked silicon with increased cyclic loading. In this work we propose a method to correlate gridline wear to module electrical degradation. We begin by conducting cyclic four-point bending tests on laminated silicon solar cells with a single crack and 22 intact gridlines for 10,000 cycles. We measure the progressive change in resistance during each loading cycle. We correlate it to a length scale called critical crack opening displacement (CCOD) that signifies failure of individual gridlines. By employing Weibull analysis, we determine the characteristic CCOD for all cycles and fit this data to a modified version of a wear power law. We observe that this i ts the data well. We also propose to study the effect of individual parameters in the power law equation and extend the equation to include material properties.

bending↗
DOE OSTI2020

Minimizing Timing Jitter’s Impact on Ground-Penetrating Radar Array Coupling Signals

This article presents a novel investigation into the effect of receiver timing jitter on the quality of imaging of ground-penetrating radar systems. We explicitly show the impact of timing jitter throughout an entire example processing pipeline. The process of coupling removal in systems whose receivers have a random Gaussian-distributed jitter with a high standard deviation leaves randomly distributed residue in the radar image. This residue, called jitter-induced coupling noise, extends even into the expected target domain which may cause false alarms. This residue approximately follows a sum of Gaussian and Gamma distributions based on the higher order derivatives of the coupling signal. Once migrated to create an image, the coupling residue is best described by a Weibull distribution. We show that simple filtering does not remove enough residue and propose two preventative design specifications called the linear slope and migrated probability specifications. Antenna and system designers should use these specifications to assess the true severity of coupling signals in a given jitter environment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring Reliability Model Parameters from Expert Opinion

Here, we propose a method for constructing bathtub models of reliability from opinion. The method is intended for reliability studies early in the design and prototyping of a new system, before data concerning reliability has become available. A stylized bathtub curve is presented for soliciting best engineering judgement from technical experts. By pooling these stylized curves, we produce data that can be used to infer parameters for a piece-wise Weibull model of reliability. A numerical example demonstrates the practicality of the method while also highlighting potential pitfalls when working with subjective data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hoop Tensile Failure Stress of 500 µm-Diameter Ceramic Spheres

The tensile failure stress of a brittle-material sphere is important to the survival of the sphere itself but is particularly relevant to systems that employ such spheres for applications in which the sphere exterior is subjected to tension during system fabrication or operation. That maximum hoop or tangential stress can be measured by diametrally compressing a C-sphere specimen directly machined from such spheres. This combination of specimen geometry and test method was conceived at Oak Ridge National Laboratory around 20 years ago. Although the C-sphere geometry has been tested with larger spheres, the ease and efficacy of its testing are unknown for submillimeter sphere diameters. To consider this, C-sphere specimens were machined from yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) spheres of ∼500 µm diameter. The maximum (hoop or tangential) tensile stress was determined as a function of compressive failure force and specimen dimensions using finite element analysis. Companion effective area and volume as a function of Weibull modulus were computed. Hoop tensile failure stresses were then measured and fractography conducted to examine flaw type and location and to estimate the mirror constant of this YSZ grade. This novel study demonstrates that hoop tensile failure stress can be determined with sub-millimeter brittle-material spheres.

Delia, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209023239)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability comparisons between additively manufactured and conventional SiC–Si ceramic composites

Abstract An additively manufactured reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramic composite is fabricated using a bimodal powder feedstock and the binder‐jetting printing technique. On fabricating, the ceramic is investigated to report its composition, mechanical, and thermal properties at room temperature and high temperatures (up to 750). The ceramic has a density of 2.76 g/cc, and shows a hardness of 21.74 GPa, and a flexure strength of 207.5 MPa at room temperature. The mechanical property of flexure strength is used to estimate its failure probability under applied stress, using a Weibull distribution. The mechanical properties and failure probabilities are compared with those of conventionally fabricated reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramics reported in the literature. These ceramics were fabricated using methods such as slip‐casting, compacting, and tape‐casting. The comparison is used to elucidate the advantages and areas of improvement of the present additive manufacturing technique for reaction‐bonded ceramics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

PV O&M Cost Model [SWR-21-14]

This tool presents a method for calculating costs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The tool compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($) that might be required to fund unexpected repairs. The reserve account includes parts inventory and is important for providing a source of funds to make repairs quickly and avoid lost production. This method allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string, or central inverter), and site and environmental conditions (e.g., pollen, bird populations) which is an improvement over simple per unit valuations of O&M costs ($/kW/year). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time as modeled by heuristic failure distributions (e.g., Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services.

Walker, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strength distributions of laminated FeNi-based metal amorphous nanocomposite ribbons

Metal Amorphous Nanocomposite (MANC) materials offer low losses at high magnetic switching frequency, enabling high power density motors with increased rotational speed. While MANCs have high strength, they are brittle. The use of motor components such as a rotor consisting of brittle material presents a reliability concern. Here, a promising MANC alloy is subjected to tensile tests and failure is observed with high-speed photography. A method is developed to prepare tensile specimens of laminated MANC and epoxy layers, simulating the stacking of an epoxy-impregnated tape-wound core. Tensile tests are conducted for single layer ribbon and for five- and ten-layer stacks of laminated material with thin layers of thermosetting epoxy. Failure distributions are shown to have increasing Weibull modulus with increasing layer count. The composite MANC material system is modeled using chain-of-bundles models. Using a k-failure model, we show that single ribbon strength distribution data can be used to predict well the failure distribution of laminated stacks. The agreement occurs when the assumed ineffective length, over which load is recovered in a failed layer, is comparable to the observed interlaminar separation length.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vitality models found useful in modeling tag-failure times in acoustic-tag survival studies

Abstract Acoustic telemetry studies often rely on the assumption that premature tag failure does not affect the validity of inferences. However, in some cases this assumption is possibly or likely invalid and it is necessary to apply a correction to estimation procedures. The question of which approaches and specific models are best suited to modeling acoustic tag failures has received little research attention. In this short communication, we present a meta-analysis of 42 acoustic tag-life studies, originally used to correct survival studies involving outmigrating juvenile salmonids in the Columbia/Snake river basin. We compare the performance of nine alternative parametric models including common failure–time/survival models and the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013). The tag-life studies used acoustic tags from three different tag manufacturers, had expected lifetimes between 12 and 61 days, and had dry weights ranging from 0.22 to 1.65 g. In 57% of the cases, the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013) fit the tag-failure times best. The vitality models were also the second-best choices in 17% of the cases. Together, the vitality models, log-logistic, (19%), and gamma models (14%) accounted for 90% of the models selected. Unlike more traditional failure–time models (e.g., Weibull, Gompertz, gamma, and log-logistic), the vitality models are capable of characterizing both the early onset of tag failure due to manufacturing errors and the anticipated battery life. We provide further guidance on appropriate sample sizes (50–100 tags) and procedures to be considered when applying precise tag-life corrections in release–recapture survival studies.

Skalski, John R. (ORCID:0000000270702505)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stem hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to cavitation for 26 tree species in Panama

Stem hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to cavitation were measured for 26 tree species located in Panama. The data were generated to better understand the ecology of the focal tree species. Complementary NGEE-Tropics datasets for these species include sap flow, leaf-level gas exchange, and leaf water potential. Stem samples were collected from distal branches of canopy trees, brought to the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute laboratory in Gamboa, Panama, and allowed to dry to various water potentials before measurements. For each species, a Weibull function was fit to the 90% quantile of the relationship between stem area specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and stem water potential. From these functions, maximum Ks and vulnerability parameters were derived. The data files in the package include raw data, derived parameters, and the R script used for analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical methods for design and testing of 3D-printed polymers

Different statistical methods are used in various fields to qualify processes and products, especially in emerging technologies like Additive Manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing. Since several statistical methods are being employed to ensure quality production of the 3D-printed parts, an overview of these methods used in 3D printing for different purposes is presented in this paper. The advantages and challenges, to understanding the importance it brings for design and testing optimization of 3D-printed parts are also discussed. The application of different metrology methods is also summarized to guide future researchers in producing dimensionally-accurate and good-quality 3D-printed parts. Here, this review paper shows that the Taguchi Methodology is the commonly-used statistical tool in optimizing mechanical properties of the 3D-printed parts, followed by Weibull Analysis and Factorial Design. In addition, key areas such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and Simulation require more research for improved 3D-printed part qualities for specific purposes. Future perspectives are also discussed, including other methods that can help further improve the overall quality of the 3D printing process from designing to manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical and Thermophysical Properties of 3D-Printed SiC-FY20

In the Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR), the fuel blocks consist of an additively-manufactured silicon carbide (SiC) matrix and uranium nitride tristructural isotropic (UN TRISO) fuel particles, which are stacked to form fuel columns. The SiC matrix is manufactured using binderjet 3D printing followed by loading the TRISO fuel particles and the chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) process. Because the fuel matrix is a primary component of the TCR core and its response to mechanical and thermal loads during operation is one of the most influential factors on the integrity of TCR core, testing and evaluation have focused on producing mechanical and thermophysical properties data for the binderjet/CVI SiC. Mechanical and thermophysical properties were measured from various types of specimens printed for two or three orientations, which included equibiaxial flexural failure strength, elastic constants, thermal diffusivity and conductivity, density, and the coefficient of thermal expansion. Flexural failure strength datasets showed similar Weibull distributions regardless of sample variants including different orientations. The mean failure strengths of the 3D-printed SiC variants were in the range of 286–306 MPa, which are 22–27% lower than that of the CVD SiC. Thermophysical test results showed that specific heat and thermal expansion are not sensitive to the build directions of SiC samples, while thermal diffusivity is highly dependent on the build direction and can be correlated to the anisotropic character of the 3D-printed SiC. This report also includes discussions on the uniaxial tensile properties of the as-printed SiC before CVI and on ongoing efforts for irradiation effects studies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗