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The author has identified the following significant results. The objectives of the investigation were: (1) to evaluate the effect of water stress, disease, and leaf area on the reflectance characteristics of wheat; (2) to evaluate disease losses in terms of yield and water use; and (3) to predict disease severity and economic loss.
This dataset contains leaf photosynthetic and biochemical traits, plant biomass, and yield in five C3 crops (chickpea, rice, snap bean, soybean, wheat) and four C4 crops (sorghum, maize, Miscanthus × giganteus, switchgrass) grown under ambient and elevated O3 concentration ([O3]) in the field at free-air O3 concentration enrichment (O3-FACE) facilities over the past 20 years.
Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.
Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R^(2) of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R^(2) results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R2performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.
Techniques developed from aircraft flights over the Washita watershed in central Oklahoma were applied to HCMM data analysis. Results show that (1) canopy temperatures were accurately measured remotely; (2) pasture surface temperature differences detected relative soil moisture differences; (3) pasture surface temperature differences were related to stress in nearby wheat fields; and (4) no relationship was developed between final yield differences, thermal infrared data, and soil moisture stress at critical growth stages due to a lack of satellite thermal data at critical growth stages. The HCMM thermal data proved to be quite adequate in detecting relative moisture differences; however, with a 16 day day/night overpass frequency, more frequent overpasses are required to analyze more cases within a 7 day period after the storm. Better normalization techniques are also required.
The deleterious effects of ozone (O 3 ) pollution on crop physiology, yield, and productivity are widely acknowledged. It has also been assumed that C 4 crops with a carbon concentrating mechanism and greater water use efficiency are less sensitive to O 3 pollution than C 3 crops. This assumption has not been widely tested. Therefore, we compiled 46 journal articles and unpublished datasets that reported leaf photosynthetic and biochemical traits, plant biomass, and yield in five C 3 crops (chickpea, rice, snap bean, soybean, and wheat) and four C 4 crops (sorghum, maize, Miscanthus × giganteus , and switchgrass) grown under ambient and elevated O 3 concentration ([O 3 ]) in the field at free-air O 3 concentration enrichment (O 3 -FACE) facilities over the past 20 y. When normalized by O 3 exposure, C 3 and C 4 crops showed a similar response of leaf photosynthesis, but the reduction in chlorophyll content, fluorescence, and yield was greater in C 3 crops compared with C 4 crops. Additionally, inbred and hybrid lines of rice and maize showed different sensitivities to O 3 exposure. This study quantitatively demonstrates that C 4 crops respond less to elevated [O 3 ] than C 3 crops. This understanding could help maintain cropland productivity in an increasingly polluted atmosphere.
Wheat, being the third largest U.S. crop and the principal food grain, faces significant risks from climate extremes such as drought. This necessitates identifying and developing methods for early water-stress detection to prevent yield loss and improve water-use efficiency. This study investigates the potential of hyperspectral imaging to detect the early stages of drought stress in wheat. The goal is to utilize this technology as a tool for screening and selecting drought-tolerant wheat genotypes in breeding programs. Additionally, this research aims to systematically evaluate the effectiveness of various existing sensors and methods for detecting early stages of water stress. The experiment was conducted in a durum wheat experimental field trial in Maricopa, Arizona, in the spring of 2019 and included well-watered and water-limited treatments of a panel of 224 replicated durum wheat genotypes. Spectral indices derived from hyperspectral imagery were compared against other plant-level indicators of water stress such as Photosystem II (PSII) and relative water content (RWC) data derived from proximal sensors. Our findings showed a 12% drop in photosynthetic activity in the most affected genotypes when compared to the least affected. The Leaf Water Vegetation Index 1 (LWVI1) highlighted differences between drought-resistant and drought-susceptible genotypes. Drought-resistant genotypes retained 43.36% more water in leaves under well-watered conditions compared to water-limited conditions, while drought-susceptible genotypes retained only 15.69% more. The LWVI1 and LWVI2 indices, aligned with the RWC measurements, revealed a strong inverse correlation in the susceptible genotypes, underscoring their heightened sensitivity to water stress in earlier stages. Several genotypes previously classified based on their drought resistance showed spectral indices deviating from expectations. Results from this research can aid farmers in improving crop yields by informing early management practices. Moreover, this research offers wheat breeders insights into the selection of drought-tolerant genotypes, a requirement that is becoming increasingly important as weather patterns continue to change.
Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.
Recent interests in improving agricultural production while minimizing environmental footprints emphasized the need for research on management strategies that reduce nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and increase nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) of cropping systems. This study aimed to evaluate N 2 O emissions, annualized crop grain yield, emission factor, and yield-scaled- and NUE-scaled N 2 O emissions under continuous spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (CW) and spring wheat-pea (Pisum sativum L.) (WP) rotations with four N fertilization rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg N ha(-1)). The N 2 O fluxes peaked immediately after N fertilization, intense precipitation, and snowmelt, which accounted for 75-85% of the total annual flux. Cumulative N 2 O flux usually increased with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. Annualized crop yield and NUE were greater in WP than CW for 0 kg N ha(-1) in all years, but the trend reversed with 100 kg N ha(-1) in 2013 and 2015. Crop yield maximized at 100 kg N ha(-1), but NUE declined linearly with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. As N fertilization rate increased, N fertilizer-scaled N2O flux decreased, but NUE-scaled N 2 O flux increased non-linearly in all years, regardless of crop rotations. The yield-scaled N 2 O flux decreased from 0 to 50 kg N ha -1 and then increased with increased N fertilization rate. Because of non-significant difference of N 2 O fluxes between 50 and 100 kg N ha(-1), but increased crop yield, N 2 O emissions can be minimized while dryland crop yields and NUE can be optimized with 100 kg N ha -1 , regardless of crop rotations.
The author has identified the following significant results. LACIE acreage estimates were in close agreement with SRS estimates, and an operational system with a 14 day LANDSAT data turnaround could have produced an accurate acreage estimate (one which satisfied the 90/90 criterion) 1 1/2 to 2 months before harvest. Low yield estimates, resulting from agromet conditions not taken into account in the yield models, caused production estimates to be correspondingly low. However, both yield and production estimates satisfied the LACIE 90/90 criterion for winter wheat in the yardstick region.
The Biomass Production Chamber at Kennedy Space Center was constructed to conduct large scale plant growth studies for NASA's CELSS program. Over the past four years, physical systems and computer control software have been continually upgraded and the degree of atmospheric leakage from the chamber has decreased from about 40 to 5 percent of the total volume per day. Early tests conducted with a limited degree of closure showed that total crop (wheat) growth from the best trays was within 80 percent of reported optimal yields for similar light levels. Yields from subsequent tests under more tightly closed conditions have not been as good--up to only 65 percent of optimal yields. Yields appear to have decreased with increasing closure, yet potential problems exist in cultural techniques and further studies are warranted. With the ability to tightly seal the chamber, quantitative data were gathered on CO2 and water exchange rates. Results showed that stand photosynthesis and transpiration reached a peak near 25 days after planting, soon after full vegetative ground cover was established. In the final phase of testing when atmospheric closure was the highest, ethylene gas levels in the chamber rose from about 10 to nearly 120 ppb. Evidence suggests that the ethylene originated from the wheat plants themselves and may have caused an epinastic rolling of the leaves, but no apparent detrimental effects on whole plant function.
Experiments using ground-based measurements of canopy temperatures have shown that plant temperatures are good indicators of plant water stress, and thus are useful for assessing water requirements and predicting yields. An intensive 23-day airborne- and ground-measurement program was conducted in Phoenix, Arizona in 1977 to compare airborne-acquired wheat canopy temperatures with simultaneous ground measurements. For canopies that covered at least 85 percent of the soil surface, airborne measurements differed from ground measurements of plant temperature by less than 2 C. Regardless of the amount of plant cover, the airborne measurements were virtually identical to ground-nadir measurements, and thus represent a combination of plant temperature and solid background temperature.
Aggregation formulas are given for production estimation of a crop type for a zone, a region, and a country, and methods for estimating yield prediction errors for the three areas are described. A procedure is included for obtaining a combined yield prediction and its mean-squared error estimate for a mixed wheat pseudozone.
Airborne and ground measurements were made on April 1 and 29, 1976, over a USDA test site consisting mostly of wheat in various stages of water stress, but also including alfalfa and bare soil. These measurements were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring crop temperatures from aircraft so that a parameter termed stress degree day, SDD, could be computed. Ground studies have shown that SDD is a valuable indicator of a crop's water needs, and that it can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. The aircraft measurement program required predawn and afternoon flights coincident with minimum and maximum crop temperatures. Airborne measurements were made with an infrared line scanner and with color IR photography. The scanner data were registered, subtracted, and color-coded to yield pseudo-colored temperature-difference images. Pseudo-colored images reading directly in daily SDD increments were also produced. These maps enable a user to assess plant water status and thus determine irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.
Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).
A Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) has been undertaken jointly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the Department of Commerce and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prove out an economically important application of remote sensing from space. The first phase of the Experiment, which focused upon determinations of wheat area in the U.S. Great Plains and upon the development and testing of yield models, is now nearing completion. The system implemented to handle and analyze the Landsat and meteorological data has generally worked well and met operational goals. A very preliminary assessment of results to date indicates that the accuracy goals of the experiment can be met.
A Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was undertaken to prove out an economically important application of remote sensing from space. The experiment focused upon determination of wheat acreages in the U.S. Great Plains and upon the development and testing of yield models. The results and conclusions are presented.
Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.