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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Effect of tool design and pass strategy on defect elimination and uniform, enhanced tensile properties of friction stir processed high-pressure die-cast A380 alloy

This work reports implementation of friction stir processing (FSP) to locally modify microstructure and create a defect-free processing zone with the aid of different tool designs and altering the passing strategy for two different process parameter combinations. Here, FSP is applied on high pressure die-cast (HPDC) A380 alloy, a widely used Al-Si alloy fabricated in the die casting sector for automotive and aerospace applications. However, the presence of gas and shrinkage porosity, brittle needle-shaped Fe-containing ß-FeSiAl 5 intermetallic compounds, Al-dendrites, coarse and acicular silicon particles, and large second-phase particulates have a detrimental influence on the uniformity of tensile properties across the thickness direction of an HPDC plate. FSP is able to eliminate porosity, refine microstructure and improve tensile properties. An FSP tool design and a passing strategy are identified for the best microstructure consolidation and uniform enhanced tensile properties. This study noted the importance of tool features such as scroll design and flats on tool pin and multiple pass orientation strategy to find best combination of defect-free refined microstructure and uniform tensile strength and ductility across the processing zone of HPDC Al alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Influence of local symmetry on lattice dynamics coupled to topological surface states

Herein we investigate coupled electron-lattice dynamics in the topological insulator Bi 2 Te 3 with time-resolved photoemission and time-resolved x-ray diffraction. It is well established that coherent phonons can be launched by optical excitation, but selection rules generally restrict these modes to zone-center wave vectors and Raman-active branches. We find that the topological surface state couples to additional modes, including a continuum of surface-projected bulk modes from both Raman and infrared branches, with possible contributions from surface-localized modes when they exist. Our calculations show that this surface vibrational spectrum occurs naturally as a consequence of the translational and inversion symmetries broken at the surface, without requiring the splitting-off of surface-localized phonon modes. The generality of this result suggests that coherent phonon spectra are useful by providing unique fingerprints for identifying surface states in more controversial materials. These effects may also expand the phase space for tailoring surface state wave functions via ultrafast optical excitation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrosion Resistance of 309L Stainless Steel Claddings on Carbon Steel Produced with Wire-Fed Directed Energy Deposition

Additive manufacturing (AM) tools are capable of applying overlay austenitic stainless steel (SS) claddings to carbon steel components. The benefits of this approach over arc welding include a smaller heat-affected zone, residual stress reduction, and material savings. In particular, wire-directed energy deposition is a suitable technique because of its low material cost and high rate of production compared to other AM methods. However, metallurgical variations in composition, phase fraction, and microsegregation can potentially influence the corrosion behavior of such claddings. In this work, 309L SS is clad on carbon steel substrates and electrochemical methods are used to measure their general and pitting corrosion resistance in simulated marine environments (3.5 wt% NaCl solutions). Two-layer claddings are fabricated with four laser powers to understand the effects of bulk chemical composition, austenite/δ-ferrite phase fractions, and individual phase compositions on corrosion behavior. The two-layer claddings are compared to a single-layer cladding, wrought 304 SS, and the carbon steel substrate for a comprehensive assessment of corrosion performance. The two-layer claddings are remarkably resistant to general corrosion in the 3.5 wt% NaCl environment because of their high Cr content (21.6 wt% to 23.3 wt% Cr). The single-layer cladding exhibits localized corrosion at unmixed Fe-rich peninsulas that originate at the dissimilar metal boundary and protrude into the first cladding layer. All two-layer claddings possess higher pitting corrosion resistance than wrought 304 SS, demonstrating their effectiveness as a corrosion-resistant barrier. Here, the pitting corrosion resistance is superior for claddings made with lower laser powers, due to low dilution and greater δ-ferrite contents.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High pressure Raman spectroscopy of boron-rich boron carbides up to 50 GPa

We investigated the effects of increased boron content on the resistance to non-hydrostatic stress-induced (NHSI) local amorphous zones in boron-rich boron carbide (BxC) compounds. Using high-pressure Raman spectroscopy, we subjected B 4.3 C, B 6.4 C, and B 10.4 C to pressures up to 50 GPa and monitored their responses. Our results show that higher boron content delays the onset of NHSI local amorphous zone formation, shifting it from 35 GPa in B 4.3 C to approximately 50 GPa in B 10.4 C. This enhanced resistance is attributed to a reduction in the formation of the B 12 (CCC) polytype, which is susceptible to amorphization, and the greater flexibility of B–B–B chains. Furthermore, alternative mechanisms, such as boron vacancy-driven C–C bond formation, provide additional insights into defect-mediated structural changes that may influence the amorphization process. In conclusion, these findings highlight the dual role of boron content and defect mechanisms in improving the structural stability of B x C materials under extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A preliminary study of the gas hydrate stability zone in a gas hydrate potential region of China

Abstract Due to its significance for gas hydrate accumulation, the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is an essential condition for successful gas hydrate exploration and is usually controlled by three main factors: gas components, geothermal gradient, and permafrost thickness. Based on the core and conventional log data of gas hydrate potential region, the CSMHYD program was adopted to simulate the influences of above three factors on the thickness of the GHSZ. When the gas components of the gas hydrate were CH 4 , C 2 H 6 , and C 3 H 8 , with the CH 4 percentage ranging from 50% to 100%, the average GHSZ thickness can reach 1000 m according to the forward simulation results. When the gas hydrate was composed of CH 4 and one of C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , H 2 S, and CO 2 , the influence order of the above four gases on the thickness of GHSZ is as follows: H 2 S > C 2 H 6 > C 3 H 8 > CO 2 . Under the gas components of 90% CH 4 , 5% C 2 H 6, and 5% C 3 H 8 , the thickness of GHSZ decreased rapidly as the geothermal gradient increased following an exponential relation with a correlation of 99.92% and increased slowly as permafrost thickness increased following a linear relation with a correlation of 99.9%. In addition, the thickness of a gas hydrate favorable reservoir was determined by comprehensive log methods as 500 m. We conclude that a reservoir within 500 m below the permafrost layer is favorable for gas hydrate reservoir formation.

Xiao, Kun↗

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of external magnetic fields on the multi-mode Rayleigh–Taylor instability

The magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (mRTI) is a key process in inertial confinement fusion and is thought to be widespread in the interstellar medium, where it can concentrate plasma into discrete structures. We present resistive MHD simulations of the nonlinear evolution of multi-mode mRTI in both two and three dimensions, examining the effects of uniform external magnetic fields oriented either parallel or perpendicular to the initial interface. In both 2D and 3D, weak parallel fields enhance mixing-zone growth, whereas stronger fields suppress it. For perpendicular fields, growth is initially inhibited but becomes enhanced at later times. These behaviors arise from magnetic tension, which modifies flow anisotropy, buoyancy, drag, and vortex dynamics. The interplay of these mechanisms governs the distinct ways in which magnetic fields influence mRTI evolution.

Flow instabilities↗

Engine Operating Conditions, Fuel Property Effects, and Associated Fuel–Wall Interaction Dependencies of Stochastic Preignition

This work for the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) explores dependencies on the opportunity for fuel to impinge on internal engine surfaces (i.e., fuel–wall impingement) as a function of fuel properties and engine operating conditions and correlates these data with measurements of stochastic preignition (SPI) propensity. SPI rates are directly coupled with laser–induced florescence measurements of dye-doped fuel dilution measurements of the engine lubricant, which provides a surrogate for fuel–wall impingement. Literature suggests that SPI may have several dependencies, one being fuel–wall impingement. However, it remains unknown if fuel-wall impingement is a fundamental predictor and source of SPI or is simply a causational factor of SPI. In this study, these relationships on SPI and fuel-wall impingement are explored using 4 fuels at 8 operating conditions per fuel, for 32 total test points. The fuels were directly injected at two different injection timings: an earlier injection timing that initially targets the piston crown and a later injection timing that targets the cylinder liner. At each injection timing, the engine was operated at both 90°C and 70°C coolant and lubricant temperatures, and 185 and 200 kPa absolute intake manifold pressure. This work serves as an exploratory effort to down select conditions and provide initial fuel properties of interest for a secondary study to explore fuel property specific effects on fuel-wall interaction and SPI propensity. Significant findings from this initial operating condition and fuel property exploratory work are: 1. reduced engine operating coolant and lubricant temperatures, along with 2. retarded injection timings were required to increase SPI propensity. Moreover, at these conditions some fuel specific effects were also observed; specifically, increased ethanol content increased measured dye–wall (i.e., fuel–wall) interaction. However, despite increased dye–wall interaction, the increased volatility of the ethanol containing fuels also reduced the estimated fuel retention in the top-ring zone and associated measured SPI propensity. Thus, the findings of this unique approach to explore relationships between fuel-wall impingement and SPI highlight that SPI propensity is more directly proportional to retained fuel, and not simply fuel–wall impingement. Furthermore, fuel retention was found to be directly influenced by complex fuel property and engine operating condition relationships. Either retarded injection timings and/or increased fuel volatility increased fuel wall-impingement, while less volatile fuels and/or reduced coolant temperatures increased fuel retention. Therefore, for a given operating condition, the data highlights that greater volatile fuels exhibit increased fuel wall impingement without increased fuel retention or SPI propensity, while less volatile fuels could exhibit reduced fuel-wall impingement but increased fuel retention and SPI propensity rates.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling Power Plant Siting Opportunities and Constraints in the Eastern Interconnection

The electrical transmission grid is a critical part of the U.S. national infrastructure, and its modernization is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) priority. We describe the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a unique, powerful, and public web-based system with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models for more than 20 power plant technologies and many other capabilities. Through a case study on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants in the Eastern Interconnection (EI), we provide an example of incorporating an EZMT MCDA model into a larger planning context, with projections of interconnection-level capacity expansion, thermoelectric power plant retirements, and water availability. Our results provide insights on candidate NGCC site distributions and the criteria influencing them. The case study provides both an efficient methodology for performing similar analyses and hundreds of candidate NGCC power plant sites that can be studied in more detail as potential project sites.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale

Abstract Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140–1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10 7 L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10 7 L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80–2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86–2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66–7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3–20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗

Optimized Illuminance Operation-A Light-Driven Dilution Strategy to Improve Microalgae Biomass Productivity

Periodic dilution is a necessary operation to avoid light limitation due to self-shading as the culture grows dense. However, environmental conditions are constantly changing in outdoor cultivation systems, making it difficult to determine the optimal dilution rate. To address this challenge, this study evaluated a dilution approach based on light penetration to optimize illuminance (OptiLum) in the culture. Biomass concentration was controlled via sensor-feedback directed dilution to ensure that light reaching the bottom of the culture was maintained above the compensation intensity. Under replicated outdoor pond conditions, by keeping the entire culture within a net-positive photosynthetic zone, the OptiLum operation improved the biomass productivities of two top-performing strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, by 95 % and 86 %, respectively, compared to conventional semi-continuous batch cultivation. The dilution rate varied daily and was dynamically adjusted based on the light status within the culture, which is concurrently influenced by weather, culture density, and growth rate. The techno-economic analysis showed that the OptiLum operation could reduce biomass production cost by as much as 24 % and 33 % for P. celeri and T. striata, respectively, assuming a low-cost dewatering approach with initial gravity settling of biomass can be realized for both strains. However, a more costly two-stage dewatering strategy, comprising only membranes and centrifuges, may be necessary for non-settling strains, such as P. celeri, which would alternatively increase production costs by 23 % for the OptiLum case. The results demonstrated that the proposed OptiLum operation is a promising approach to improve biomass productivity and lower production cost via weather-responsive and self-adjusting dilution.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Antiferromagnetism and Superconductivity

This work under the rubrique of Antiferromagnetism and Superconductivity covers significant aspects of the most important and highest quality of superconductors in the class of quantum materials and the influence of magnetism on the superconducting state. These compounds include high temperature superconductors, pnictide iron-based superconductors, and topological superconductors. Special note is given that crystal growth of uranium based superconductors was performed with equipment created at Northwestern University for this purpose using novel ultra-high vacuum, electron-beam, float zone refining and crystal growth, producing the best quality of bulk single crystals of UPt3 in the literature with RRR=1546.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer

Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗