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NASA NTRS2015

Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA's Journey to Safety Culture

One of the organizational causes of the Shuttle Columbia mishap found by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) Report was a "Broken Safety Culture". Since its release, NASA has strived to improve its Safety Culture In 2009, the Chief of the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance asked a member of the Air Force Safety Center and of the CAIB for assistance to develop a NASA Safety Culture Program. This presentation describes the journey that NASA personnel has taken developing a NASA Safety Culture Program to "repair" its Safety Culture.

Dillinger, Tracy↗

NASA NTRS1983

Structural response of transport airplanes in crash situations

This report highlights the results of contractural studies of transport accident data undertaken in a joint research program sponsored by the FAA and NASA. From these accident data studies it was concluded that the greatest potential for improved transport crashworthiness is in the reduction of fire related fatalities. Accident data pertaining to fuselage integrity, main landing gear collapse, fuel tank rupture, wing breaks, tearing of tank lower surfaces, and engine pod scrubbing are discussed. In those accidents where the energy absorbing protective capability of the fuselage structure is expended and the airplane experiences major structural damage, trauma caused fatalities are also discussed. The dynamic performance of current seat/restraint systems are examined but it is concluded that the accident data does not adequately define the relationship between occupant response and the dynamic interaction with the seat, floor and fuselage structure.

Thomson, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Impaired driving performance in shiftworkers: the role of the circadian system in a multifactorial model

A substantial and growing percentage of the U.S. work force now works on a rotating shift schedule. The repeated changes in sleep-wake, meal and work times inherent in such schedules conflict with the dictates of the internal biological clock and have adverse consequences for the health of the shiftworker population. An important consequence of this conflict is impaired performance, both on and off the job, as indexed by the increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents in shift workers. In this paper we report the results of a survey administered to rotating shift and straight day workers at a manufacturing plant in the eastern U.S. This survey documents an increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents or "near misses" in which sleepiness was implicated as a cause by the respondent. Complaints of poor sleep and increased sleepiness were also significantly more common in shiftworkers than day workers. Last, shiftworkers reported higher caffeine and alcohol consumption, and were more likely to use alcohol as a sleep aid. Although causal links cannot be established using these associative observations alone, previously reported experience with alteration of shift schedules, improvement of levels of alertness, and reduction in adverse performance outcomes corroborate the possibility of a causal link and suggest potential interventions.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS2017

Getting to the Heart of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Astronauts for Exploration Class Missions

Since the beginning of manned spaceflight, NASA has recognized the potential risk of cardiovascular decrements due to stressors in the space environment. Of particular concern is the effect of space radiation on cardiovascular disease since astronauts will be exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere. To date, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on cardiovascular disease, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between radiation exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Furthermore, other spaceflight conditions such as microgravity, circadian shifts, and confinement stress pose unique challenges in estimating the health risks that can be attributed to exposure to ionizing radiations. In this work, we review age, cause of mortality, and radiation exposure amongst early NASA astronauts in selection groups and discuss the limitations of assessing such a cohort when attempting to characterize the risk of space flight, including stressors such as space radiation and microgravity exposure, on cardiovascular health. METHODS: NASA astronauts in selection groups 1-7 were chosen and the comparison population was white men of the same birth cohort as drawn from data from the CDC Wonder Database and CDC National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables. Cause of death information was obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program and deceased astronauts were classified based on ICD-10 codes: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, cancer, acute occupational events, non-NASA accidents, and other/unknown. Expected years of life left and expected age at death were calculated for the cohort. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There were 32 deaths in this early astronaut population, 12 of which were due to accidents or acute occupational events that impacted lifespan considerably. The average age at death from these causes is 30 years lower than the average expected ~70 years of age in the general population. Remarkably, all 41 living early astronauts outlived our calculated expected age at death for members of their birth cohort; furthermore, 13 of the 20 deceased astronauts who did not die in NASA/non-NASA accidents exceeded this age. There was no difference in IHD between the astronaut cohort and the comparison population; therefore, it is not possible to associate IHD mortality with radiation in that astronaut cohort. As NASA looks toward future exploration-class missions, early astronaut cohorts provide a convenient option for assessing these risks and for developing mitigation strategies. However, many challenges still exist when assessing such limited evidence, including small cohort size, health and lifestyle confounders (such as smoking and drinking), the high accident mortality rate, and the fact that many of these astronauts are still alive, outliving many of their birth-cohort peers. Future analysis should include a longitudinal study, monitoring cases as they occur in the cohort. As this cohort is currently followed-up over time, and as more IHD cases are anticipated in a population of this age, this type of study is not as resource-intensive as would normally be the case.

Elgart, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Nondestructive Testing As a Tool in the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

Nondestructive testing (NDT) played a crucial role in determining the Columbia tragedy's cause. Over 84,000 pieces of debris were recovered; hundreds were subsequently subjected to NDT and materials analysis. Visual NDT of the debris revealed localized areas of damage such as erosion, excessive heating, knife edging and mechanical damage. Three-dimensional reconstructions were made of the left wing leading edge, utilizing a tripod-mounted laser scanning head and focused laser beam, and an advanced topometric optical scanner (ATOS) with digital white light to scan complex-shaped debris, producing monochrome 3-D models. Texture mapping provided a means to capture true colors of the debris and superimpose them on the scanned images. Uniform deposits were found over large portions of debris, obscuring underlying materials. To determine what was beneath, inverse radiography was enlisted. The radiographs guided investigators to where samples should be taken. To ascertain compositions, these samples were subjected to analytical testing, including energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron microprobe analysis. This combination of visual evidence, radiography, virtual reconstruction, and materials analysis allowed the forensic scientists to verify that a breach occurred in the leading edge of the left wing, the path the plasma followed, and the sequence of events that led to the loss.

McDanels, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1971

Mishaps with oxygen in NASA operations.

Oxygen safety programs were conducted, taking into consideration a review of the hazards, the available data concerning the failure of components and systems, and the oxygen handling procedures followed by NASA and its contractors. Information is presented regarding a substantial number of oxygen mishaps together with safety regulations aimed at reducing the accident probability. The information was used to establish categories of events causing the mishap. These categories include materials incompatibility deficiency, materials failure, design deficiency, cleaning deficiency, and procedural deficiencies. Mishaps are generally caused by a number of interacting factors.

Ordin, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Microwave and Millimeter Wave Nondestructive Evaluation of the Space Shuttle External Tank Insulating Foam

The Space Shuttle Columbia s catastrophic failure has been attributed to a piece of external fuel tank insulating SOFI (Spray On Foam Insulation) foam striking the leading edge of the left wing of the orbiter causing significant damage to some of the protecting heat tiles. The accident emphasizes the growing need to develop effective, robust and life-cycle oriented methods of nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) of complex conductor-backed insulating foam and protective acreage heat tiles used in the space shuttle fleet and in future multi-launch space vehicles. The insulating SOFI foam is constructed from closed-cell foam. In the microwave regime this foam is in the family of low permittivity and low loss dielectric materials. Near-field microwave and millimeter wave NDT methods were one of the techniques chosen for this purpose. To this end several flat and thick SOFI foam panels, two structurally complex panels similar to the external fuel tank and a "blind" panel were used in this investigation. Several anomalies such as voids and disbonds were embedded in these panels at various locations. The location and properties of the embedded anomalies in the "blind" panel were not disclosed to the investigating team prior to the investigation. Three frequency bands were used in this investigation covering a frequency range of 8-75 GHz. Moreover, the influence of signal polarization was also investigated. Overall the results of this investigation were very promising for detecting the presence of anomalies in different panels covered with relatively thick insulating SOFI foam. Different types of anomalies were detected in foam up to 9 in thick. Many of the anomalies in the more complex panels were also detected. When investigating the blind panel no false positives were detected. Anomalies in between and underneath bolt heads were not easily detected. This paper presents the results of this investigation along with a discussion of the capabilities of the method used.

Shrestha, S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Loss of Control Study

Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

Jacobson, Steven R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

Jacobson, Steven R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Reliability, Safety, and Performance for Two Aerospace Revolutions - UAS/ODM and Commercial Deep Space

Aerospace is in the midst of a renaissance, expanding on both the air and space side into major new commercial areas including unmanned air systems (UAS), on demand mobility (ODM), personal air vehicles (PAV), and commercial deep space. These new areas require, in the initial planning, consideration of new safety, reliability, and in some cases, enabling performance approaches for viability. For example, due to their huge numbers, if current accident rates prevail, UAS/ODM/PAV aircraft could crash at an unacceptable rate, causing life and property damage. Also, if humans in commercial space activities have serious health issues and/or there are unacceptable rocket viability issues/crash rates, these new, major markets (order of 1 trillion dollars per year) could be rapidly curtailed until agreeable and effective changes are instituted, producing additional expense, delay, and reduced revenue. This report addresses such safety and reliability issues and includes: performance enhancement possibilities such as an enabling Air Traffic Control System (ATC), crash proof vehicles, increased range for aero, space debris removal, and human health for space.

Crash Proof↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling Thermal-Hydraulics with Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Models

Because of the importance of maintaining the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in light-water reactors, significant effort has been devoted over the last several decades to understand the potential failure mechanisms, characterize how material properties evolve due to environmental conditions, and develop tools to assess the probability of fracture in aged RPVs during potential transient events. One important aspect of this problem that has not yet been fully addressed is the effects of nonuniform cooling on the RPV inner wall due to the way low-temperature water injected into the primary coolant system is distributed within the RPV during potential loss-of-coolant accident transients. Colder temperatures are expected in the regions near the inlets, causing a “cold-plume” effect. Rapid cooling of the RPV wall increases the likelihood of fracture initiation, and localized cooling due to cold-plume effects could potentially exacerbate this problem. The Grizzly code can perform a three-dimensional simulation of the RPV thermomechanical response as well as the probabilistic assessment of fracture for a population of pre-existing flaws, which is necessary to account for spatial variations in coolant temperature. This report documents a first effort to couple Grizzly RPV fracture models with computational fluid dynamics models performed using the Cardinal code, which allows for a realistic representation of the temperature distribution. This report demonstrates this coupling approach on two test cases: a simplified proof-of-concept scenario and a realistic small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In both cases, the effects of the spatially varying temperature are evident; although, because the small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario was far from challenging the RPV’s margins, it is still inconclusive how important cold-plume effects are in realistic accident scenarios. However, this effort represents an important step toward performing realistic analyses to determine to what extent spatially nonuniform cooling might affect RPV integrity under more aggressive accident scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Liu, Tao↗

NASA NTRS2005

Intelligent Engine Systems Work Element 1.2: Malfunction and Operator Error Reduction

Jet engines, although highly reliable and safe, do experience malfunctions that cause flight delays, passenger stress, and in some cases, in conjunction with inappropriate crew response, contribute to airplane accidents. On rare occasions, the anomalous engine behavior is not recognized until it is too late for the pilots to do anything to prevent or mitigate the resulting engine malfunction causing in-flight shutdowns (IFSDs), aborted takeoffs (ATOs), or loss of thrust control (LOTC). In some cases, the crew response to a myriad of external stimuli and existing training procedures is the source of the problem mentioned above. The problem is the reduction of jet engine malfunctions (IFSDs, ATOs, and LOTC) and inappropriate crew response (PSM+ICR) through the use of evolving and advanced technologies. The solution is to develop the overall system health maintenance architecture, detection and accommodation technologies, processes, and enhanced crew interfaces that would enable a significant reduction in IFSDs, ATOs, and LOTC. This program defines requirements and proposes a preliminary design concept of an architecture that enables the realization of the solution.

Wiseman, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2021

WSF PISA example for SAFER pilot

On October 15, 2021, the Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Management Facility Manager declared a Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis (PISA) due to a new information relating to an error discovered in calculation AB-WSF-20-002. Calculation AB-WSF-20-002 is used to determine source terms and heat release rates for vehicle and aircraft impacts with fuel fires involving TRU waste containers. The source term for an aircraft’s impact has different source terms factors (i.e., DR, ARF, RF, LPF) that are applied to multiple categories of drums impacted in the accident scenario based on the physical stresses of the aircraft impact and involvement in the subsequent fuel pool fire. The source terms of the multiple categories of affected drums are summed to determine the final source term for the accident scenario. Certain categories of affected drums are modeled to lose their lid, causing material to eject and burn unconfined on the ground. For these specific categories, a lower ARF value was incorrectly applied in AB-WSF-20-002 (i.e., an ARF value of 1E-3 was used instead of the DOE-STD-5506-2007 directed ARF value of 1E-2). For these categories, the ARF is applied to a relatively small number of low-activity drums (i.e., 17 drums at 2.9 PE-Ci each) compared to the total number of drums affected (i.e., 166 drums totaling 621.8 PE-Ci). Therefore, this error is not expected to significantly increase final dose for the accident scenario. No immediate actions or compensatory measures are required to maintain the facility in a safe condition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1979

Overview of the carbon fiber problem

Carbon fibers (CF) composite structures are being utilized more as alternatives to metals in both civilian and military applications. They are valued for their light weight and high strength as well as for their ease of designing structures with specific shapes and sizes. However, a problem may exist due to the high conductivity of CF. CF are manufactured from a precursor material which is subjected to great stress and heat treatment causing a change in the physical and electrical properties. The fibers are bound together by a matrix of epoxy. In the event of fire (aircraft accident) the epoxy would burn away releasing these fibers into the atmosphere. When these fibers come in contact with electronic equipment, they might cause damage to by settling on electrical junctions. An overview is given of the objectives for a study, and the approach and methodology developed for determination of risk profiles.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

Effect of temperature and O-ring gland finish on sealing ability of Viton V747-75

As a part of the redesign project of the Space Shuttle solid rocket motor (SRM) following the Challenger accident, the field joint was redesigned to minimize the relative joint motion caused by internal motor pressurization during ignition. The O-ring seals and glands for the field joint were designed both to accommodate structural deflections and to promote pressure-assisted sealing. Tests were conducted in various face seal fixtures to evaluate the ability of Viton V747-75 O-rings to seal for a range of temperatures and surface finishes of the redesigned O-ring gland. The effect of surface finish on the sealing performance and wear characteristics of the O-rings was evaluated during simulated launch conditions that included low-frequency vibrations, gap openings, and rapid pressurizations. The effect of contamination on the sealing performance was also investigated. The O-rings sealed throughout the 75 deg F leak check test and for the seal tests from 50 deg F to 120 deg F for the range of surface finishes investigated. Although abrasions were found in the O-rings from pressurization against the rougher finishes, these abrasions were not detrimental to sealing. Below 50 deg F, Viton V747-75 O-rings were insufficiently resilient to track the test gap opening.

Lach, Cynthia L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Residual strength of thin panels with cracks

The previous design philosophies involving safe life, fail-safe and damage tolerance concepts become inadequate for assuring the safety of aging aircraft structures. For example, the failure mechanism for the Aloha Airline accident involved the coalescence of undetected small cracks at the rivet holes causing a section of the fuselage to peel open during flight. Therefore, the fuselage structure should be designed to have sufficient residual strength under worst case crack configurations and in-flight load conditions. Residual strength is interpreted as the maximum load carrying capacity prior to unstable crack growth. Internal pressure and bending moment constitute the two major components of the external loads on the fuselage section during flight. Although the stiffeners in the form of stringers, frames and tear straps sustain part of the external loads, the significant portion of the load is taken up by the skin. In the presence of a large crack in the skin, the crack lips bulge out with considerable yielding; thus, the geometric and material nonlinearities must be included in the analysis for predicting residual strength. Also, these nonlinearities do not permit the decoupling of in-plane and out-of-plane bending deformations. The failure criterion combining the concepts of absorbed specific energy and strain energy density addresses the aforementioned concerns. The critical absorbed specific energy (local toughness) for the material is determined from the global specimen response and deformation geometry based on the uniaxial tensile test data and detailed finite element modeling of the specimen response. The use of the local toughness and stress-strain response at the continuum level eliminates the size effect. With this critical parameter and stress-strain response, the finite element analysis of the component by using STAGS along with the application of this failure criterion provides the stable crack growth calculations for residual strength predictions.

Madenci, Erdogan↗