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NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗
NASA NTRS1975

Meteorological Radar Facility for the Space Shuttle

A proposed meteorological radar facility for Space Shuttle missions is described as a device suitable for providing vertical profiles of the precipitation distribution in the atmosphere above land masses and over ocean, thus ensuring three-dimensional mapping of the hydrometeor-precipitation distribution in the atmosphere. Some performance characteristics essential to orbiting meteorological radar systems and typical parameters are discussed, including large swath width, narrow beamwidth, frequency agility, and antenna configuration and orientation. Also discussed are the capabilities of the device as a test bed sensor with multiple mode capability, being able to operate in real aperture/pulse radar, real aperture/pulse Doppler and synthetic azimuth processing modes.

Eckerman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Bremsstrahlung in the atmosphere at satellite altitudes

Transport calculations have been made to determine the emission of bremsstrahlung by electrons in the atmosphere and the penetration of this radiation to high altitudes where it can be detected by satellite-borne instruments. The calculations were done assuming uniform wide-area precipitation into the atmosphere of an electron flux isotropic over the downward hemisphere. The intensity and energy spectrum of the bremsstrahlung have been obtained for the case of incident monoenergetic electron beams at energies between 20 keV and 2 MeV, for incident electron beams with exponential spectra with e-folding energies between 5 and 200 keV.

Seltzer, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Chou, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Guidelines for use in Aerospace Vehicle Development

This document provides guidelines for the terrestrial environment that are specifically applicable in the development of design requirements/specifications for NASA aerospace vehicles, payloads, and associated ground support equipment. The primary geographic areas encompassed are the John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL; Vandenberg AFB, CA; Edwards AFB, CA; Michoud Assembly Facility, New Orleans, LA; John C. Stennis Space Center, MS; Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX; George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and the White Sands Missile Range, NM. This document presents the latest available information on the terrestrial environment applicable to the design and operations of aerospace vehicles and supersedes information presented in NASA-HDBK-1001 and TM X-64589, TM X-64757, TM-78118, TM-82473, and TM-4511. Information is included on winds, atmospheric thermodynamic models, radiation, humidity, precipitation, severe weather, sea state, lightning, atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and a model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth. In addition, a section has been included to provide information on the general distribution of natural environmental extremes in the conterminous United States, and world-wide, that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components. A section on atmospheric attenuation has been added since measurements by sensors on certain Earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the Earth s atmosphere. There is also a section on mission analysis, prelaunch monitoring, and flight evaluation as related to the terrestrial environment inputs. The information in these guidelines is recommended for use in the development of aerospace vehicle and related equipment design and associated operational criteria, unless otherwise stated in contract work specifications. The terrestrial environmental data in these guidelines are primarily limited to information below 90 km altitude.

D L Johnson↗
NASA NTRS2019

El Niño Related Tropical Land Surface Water and Energy Response in MERRA-2

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled Earth system circulation phenomena that reaches all around the globe. The heat added to the atmosphere by increased precipitation produces circulation changes that have global reach and, over time, warms the entire tropical band, and much of the Earth. Many studies have noted that El Niño causes warm and dry (and sometimes drought) conditions over tropical land masses. We develop a composite analysis of El Niño to identify the predominate features of tropical land response. This analysis shows that the land’s lagged response is related to a reduction clouds that leads to increase surface shortwave radiation that increases the surface temperature. The precipitation lag is somewhat longer, and then leads to a reduction in soil water and, in concert with increased SW induced surface warming, leads to increased sensible heating of the atmosphere above. The M2AMIP simulation generally captures these features, but the response is strongest with increased temporal and spatial proximity to the El Niño peak warming. The regionality of these features is also discussed, and it is noted that even the strongest individual El Niño events can vary from this composite mechanistic paradigm.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS1976

Non-thermal processes in large solar flares

The paper examines the significance of particle acceleration processes in large solar flares, and the importance of accelerated particles in the generation of other flare phenomena. Comprehensive observations of the August 1972 series of large flares were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the energetic particle populations, the electromagnetic emissions, and the mass ejections. The fluxes of energetic electrons and protons were derived from observed X-ray and gamma-ray emissions, respectively. The energy input into the solar atmosphere from the collisional losses of these energetic particles is computed as a function of overlying column density, under the assumption that particles are accelerated at a point high in the solar atmosphere and then precipitate down to denser layers. The flash phase radiation, soft X-ray flare plasma, and the interplanetary shock wave can be consistently and quantitatively explained as a result of the interaction of nonrelativistic electrons with the solar atmosphere.

Lin, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Jovian magnetospheric neutral wind and auroral precipitation flux

A theoretical model of the Jovian magnetosphere is used to describe the mechanism by which energy is transported from Jupiter's rotation into heavy ions precipitating into the atmosphere, and resulting in intense ultraviolet aurora. The flow and magnetic field configurations used in the model are drawn from data collected by the Voyager orbiter. It is shown that the observed Jovian auroral radiation power is supplied by the precipitation of heavy ions of Iogenic origin. The ions are created by a charge exchange between the Io torus and fly as neutrals to the outer magnetosphere. A small fraction of the ions are photoionized in the outer magnetosphere where they acquire a magnetic moment determined by the local corotation electric field and planetary magnetic field. As the ions diffuse inward they are energized adiabatically. A schematic drawing illustrating the evolution of this process is provided. It is also shown that Jupiter may be a significant source of heavy ions for the solar wind by means of photoionization of a neutral wind. Secondary charge exchange in the outer magnetosphere could supply a flux of minimum energy neutral atoms that may have been measured by the Voyager Low Energy Charged Particle detector (LECP).

Eviatar, A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Altitude variation of EUV emissions and evidence for proton precipitation at low latitudes in the Saturnian atmosphere

Extreme ultraviolet observations of Saturn from Voyager 1 and 2 are analyzed. The Lyman alpha and H2 band emissions extend throughout the upper atmosphere, from the hydrocarbon homopause to well above the exobase. Analysis of the Lyman alpha emissions with a radiative transfer model indicates that the Lyman alpha source temperature is very high. This suggests that energetic protons or hydrogen atoms are responsible for a fraction of the emissions. Calculation of the solar-scattered component of the emissions based on the neutral atmosphere of Smith et al. (1983) reveals that only 1-2 kR out of a total of 3.5 kR of the observed Lyman alpha intensity is due to solar scatter for the Voyager 2 disk observations; the remainder of the Lyman alpha emissions are collisionally excited. The Lyman alpha and H2 bands are constant in longitude but decrease in local time by a factor of 2 from dawn to dusk. This correlation of the Lyman alpha and H2 band intensities is further evidence that most of the Lyman alpha is collisionally excited.

Yelle, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-11084-DND

The solar radiation must be considered as the primary factor when we study the climatic system because it provides almost all energy that drives the climatic system and most atmospheric phenomena. The solar radiation at the TOA is partially transferred, transformed into other forms of energy that are eventually dissipated by the general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, and partially used in chemical and biological processes. The absorption of solar energy in the atmosphere (Acol) plays a key role in the climate system, not only because it affects the amount of solar energy absorbed by the Earth system, but also because it changes the vertical distribution of absorbed energy, which in turn impacts surface evaporation, atmospheric convection and precipitation. To investigate Acol, we have collected the collocated satellite-surface observations over the 35 selected BSRN surface sites during the period 2000-2004. The surface radiation budgets are averaged from the BSRN Shortwave (SW) observations over a 1-hour interval centered at the time of the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites overpass, and the TOA radiation budgets are averaged from the closest FOV satellite data to the BSRN stations. Then the atmospheric column SW absorption will be inferred from the satellite TOA albedo and BSRN surface absorption (through the estimated surface albedo). Monthly means of Acol, TOA albedo, and surface absorption have been calculated under both clear- and all-sky conditions over the 35 selected BSRN sites which represent different climate regimes. To evaluate the GCM simulations, we have collected the ECHAM5-HAM simulated surface, TOA and atmospheric radiation budgets by researchers at ETH Zurich and compared those simulations with observations. The preliminary comparisons have shown that the ECHAM5 simulated clear-sky surface absorption, TOA albedo, and ACOL agree very well (1-3%) with observations. Under all-sky conditions, they have strong correlations with CERES-derived cloud fraction. The simulated surface absorption is lower and TOA albedo is higher than those under clear skies, but ACOL does not increase too much. However, there are relatively large differences over some regions and months. A further study is needed.

X. Dong↗
NASA NTRS1996

Magnetospheric Atmospheric X-ray Imaging Experiment (MAXIE)

This report summarizes the activities sponsored by the Office of Naval Research for the Magnetospheric Atmospheric X-ray Imaging Experiment (MAXIE). The MAXIE instrument was developed as a joint activity of Lockheed, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Bergen, Norway. Lockheed was responsible for the overall management of the program, interfacing with the appropriate government agencies, the overall electrical and mechanical design, flight software, environmental testing, spacecraft integration activities, on orbit checkout, and data processing activities. The Magnetospheric Atmospheric X-ray Imaging Experiment (MAXIE), the ONR 401 experiment, is the first in a new class of satellite-borne remote sensing instruments. The primary innovation is the ability to obtain rapid, sequential, images with high sensitivity of the earth's X ray aurora from a low altitude polar orbiting satellite. These images can be used to identify dynamic temporal variations in the three-dimensional (energy and position) distribution of electron precipitation into the atmosphere. MAXIE was launched on the TIROS NOAA-13 satellite on 9 August 1993. The experiment performed well during its turn-on sequence; however, the spacecraft bus failed on 21 August 1993. New spacebased technologies successfully used in MAXIE were mixed-mode ASIC microcircuits, a zero torque scanning system with associated viscoelastic damping, a paraffin stow release mechanism, a parallel integrating PHA processor, a low noise Si(Li) sensor telescope, and an advanced thermal cooling system. MAXIE's on orbit operation, control of penetrating particle backgrounds, and scientific data indicated good overall performance.

Imhof, W. L.↗