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DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Mountain Watershed Headwater‐To‐Groundwater Connections, Water Sources, and Storage Selection Behavior With Dynamic‐Flux Particle Tracking

Abstract Climate change will impact mountain watershed streamflow both directly—with changing precipitation amounts and variability—and indirectly—through temperature shifts altering snowpack, melt, and evapotranspiration. To understand how these complex processes will affect ecosystem functioning and water resources, we need tools to distinguish connections between water sources (rain/snowmelt), groundwater storage, and exit fluxes (streamflow/evapotranspiration), and to determine how these connections change seasonally and as climate shifts. Here, we develop novel watershed‐scale approaches to understand water source, storage, and exit flux connections using a dynamic‐flux particle tracking model (EcoSLIM) applied in California's Cosumnes Watershed, which connects the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. This work develops new visualizations and applications to provide mechanistic understanding that underpins the interpretation of isotopic field data at watershed scales to distinguish sources, flow paths, residence times, and storage selection. In our simulations, streamflow comes primarily from snow‐derived water while evapotranspiration generally comes from rain. Most streamflow starts above 1,000 m while evapotranspiration is sourced relatively evenly across the watershed and is generally younger than streamflow. Modeled streamflow consists primarily of water sourced from precipitation in the previous 5 years but before the current water year, while ET consists primarily of water from precipitation in the current water year. ET, and to a lesser extent streamflow, are both younger than water in groundwater storage. However, snowmelt‐derived streamflow preferentially discharges older water from snow‐derived storage. Dynamic‐flux particle tracking and new approaches presented here enable novel model‐tracer comparisons in large‐scale watersheds to better understand watershed behavior in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Isotopic Composition of Oxygen in Lunar Zircons

The recent discovery of heavy oxygen in zircons from the Jack Hills conglomerates Wilde et al. and Mojzsis et al. was interpreted as an indication of presence of liquid water on the surface of Early Earth. The distribution of ages of Jack Hills zircons and lunar zircons appears to be very similar and therefore analysis of oxygen in the lunar grains may provide a reference frame for further study of the early history of the Earth as well as give additional information regarding processes that operated on the Moon. In the present study we have analysed the oxygen isotopic composition of zircon grains from three lunar samples using the Swedish Museum of Natural History CAMECA 1270 ion microprobe. The samples were selected as likely tests for variations in lunar oxygen isotopic composition. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Nemchin, A. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗

NASA NTRS2010

Detailed Analysis of the Intra-Ejecta Dark Plains of Caloris Basin, Mercury

The Caloris basin on Mercury is floored by light-toned plains and surrounded by an annulus of dark-toned material interpreted to be ejecta blocks and smooth, dark, ridged plains. Strangely, preliminary crater counts indicate that these intra-ejecta dark plains are younger than the light-toned plains within the Caloris basin. This would imply a second, younger plains emplacement event, possibly involving lower albedo material volcanics, which resurfaced the original ejecta deposit. On the other hand, the dark plains may be pre-Caloris light plains covered by a thin layer of dark ejecta. Another alternative to the hypothesis of young, dark volcanism is the possibility that previous crater counts have not thoroughly distinguished between superposed craters (fresh) and partly-buried craters (old) and therefore have not accurately determined the ages of the Caloris units. This abstract outlines the tasks associated with a new mapping project of the Caloris basin, intended to improve our knowledge of the geology and geologic history of the basin, and thus facilitate an understanding of the thermal evolution of this region of Mercury.

Buczkowski, Debra L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites

Abstract Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars' history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low. Plain Language Summary Wind-blown dune sand can wear away the Martian surface and uncover

Rover↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Return to Io: Science Goals and Implementation

Io remains one of the most fascinating objects in the solar system: the only place beyond Earth where we can watch hard-rock geology in action. In its high heat flow Io resembles the early Earth, providing a present-day analog to some of the processes that dominated the Earth's geology at the time that life first appeared. Io's usefulness as an early-Earth analog has been underscored recently by the detection of very high eruption temperatures, hotter than terrestrial basaltic lavas. These temperatures are most plausibly interpreted as resulting from ultramafic lava compositions, analagous to the komatiites that were common on Earth in the Precambrian but which have been virtually absent during the Phanerozoic. The large scale of many Io eruptions also provides useful analogs to Phanerozoic terrestrial eruptions, such as flood basalts, which are important for the Earth's geological and biological evolution but which occur too rarely to be witnessed by humans on our own planet. By providing living examples, Io can thus play the same role in understanding large-scale planetary volcanism that volcanically active terrestrial regions have played in understanding the results of smaller-scale volcanic processes seen in the geological record worldwide. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Spencer, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

An analytical model of “Electron-Only” magnetic reconnection rates

Abstract “Electron-only” reconnection, which is both uncoupled from the surrounding ions and much faster than standard reconnection, is arguably ubiquitous in turbulence. One critical step to understanding the rate in this novel regime is to model the outflow speed that limits the transport of the magnetic flux, which is super ion Alfvénic but significantly lower than the electron Alfvén speed based on the asymptotic reconnecting field. Here we develop a simple model to determine this limiting speed by taking into account the multiscale nature of reconnection, the Hall-mediated electron outflow speed, and the pressure buildup within the small system. The predicted scalings of rates and various key quantities compare well with fully kinetic simulations and can be useful for interpreting the observations of NASA’s Magnetospheric-Multiscale (MMS) mission and other ongoing missions.

Physics↗

NASA NTRS1972

Participation in the Apollo passive seismic experiment

Computer programs which were written to read digital tapes containing lunar seismic data were studied. Interpreting very early parts of the lunar seismogram as seismic body-wave phases enabled the determination of the structure of the outer part of the moon in the Fra Mauro region. The crust in the Fra Mauro region is 60 to 65 km-thick, overlaying a high velocity mantle. The crust is further divided into an upper part, 25 km thick, apparently made of material similar to the surficial basalts, and a lower part of seemingly different composition, possibly an anorthositic gabbro. The generation of the exceedingly long reverberating wave-train observed in lunar seismogram was also studied. This is believed to be due to an intense scattering layer with very high quality coefficient overlying a more homogeneous elastic medium. Titles and abstracts of related published papers are included.

Press, F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Improving the geological interpretation of magnetic and gravity satellite anomalies

Quantitative analysis of the geologic component of observed satellite magnetic and gravity fields requires accurate isolation of the geologic component of the observations, theoretically sound and viable inversion techniques, and integration of collateral, constraining geologic and geophysical data. A number of significant contributions were made which make quantitative analysis more accurate. These include procedures for: screening and processing orbital data for lithospheric signals based on signal repeatability and wavelength analysis; producing accurate gridded anomaly values at constant elevations from the orbital data by three-dimensional least squares collocation; increasing the stability of equivalent point source inversion and criteria for the selection of the optimum damping parameter; enhancing inversion techniques through an iterative procedure based on the superposition theorem of potential fields; and modeling efficiently regional-scale lithospheric sources of satellite magnetic anomalies. In addition, these techniques were utilized to investigate regional anomaly sources of North and South America and India and to provide constraints to continental reconstruction. Since the inception of this research study, eleven papers were presented with associated published abstracts, three theses were completed, four papers were published or accepted for publication, and an additional manuscript was submitted for publication.

Hinze, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Topography and Basin Deposits of the Equatorial Highlands: A MGS-Viking Synergistic Study

One of the greatest unresolved issues concerns the evolution of Mars early in its history; during the time period that accretion was winding down but the frequency of impacting debris was still heavy. Ancient cratered terrain that has only been moderately modified since the period of heavy bombardment covers about a quarter of the planet's surface but the environment during its formation is still uncertain. This terrain was dominantly formed by cratering. But unlike on the airless Moon, the impacting craters were strongly modified by other contemporary surface processes that have produced distinctive features such as: 1) dendritic channel networks, 2) rimless, flatfloored craters, 3) obliteration of most craters smaller than a few kilometers in diameter (except for post heavy-bombardment impacts), and 4) smooth intercrater plains. The involvement of water in these modification processes seems unavoidable, but interpretations of the surface conditions on early Mars range from the extremes of: 1) the "cold" model which envisions a thin atmosphere and surface temperatures below freezing except for local hydrothermal springs; and 2) the "warm" model, which invokes a thick atmosphere, seasonal temperatures above freezing in temperate and equatorial regions, and at least occasional precipitation as part of an active hydrological cycle. The nature of hydrologic cycles, if they occurred on Mars, would have been critically dependent on the environment. The resolution of where along this spectrum the actual environment of early Mars occurred is clearly a major issue, particularly because the alternate scenarios have much different implications about the possibility that life might have evolved on Mars. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Moore, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Revised Thorium Abundances for Lunar Red Spots

Lunar red spots are features on the nearside of the Moon that are characterized by high albedo and by a strong absorption in the ultraviolet. These red spots include the Gruithuisen domes, the Mairan domes, Hansteen Alpha, the southern portion of Montes Riphaeus, Darney Chi and Tau, Helmet, and an area near the Lassell crater. It has been suggested that many of the red spots are extrusive, nonmare, volcanic features that could be composed of an evolved lithlogy enriched in thorium. In fact, Hawke et al. used morphological characteristics to show that Hansteen Alpha is a nonmare volcanic construct. However, because the apparent Th abundances (6 - 7 ppm) were lower than that expected for evolved rock types, Hawke et al. concluded that Hansteen Alpha was composed of an unknown rock type. Subsequent studies by Lawrence et al. used improved knowledge of the Th spatial distribution for small area features on the lunar surface to revisit the interpretation of Th abundances at the Hansteen Alpha red spot. As part of their study, Lawrence et al. used a forward modeling technique to show that the Th abundance at Hansteen Alpha is not 6 ppm, but is more likely closer to 25 ppm, a value consistent with evolved lithologies. This positive correlation between the morphology and composition of Hansteen Alpha provides support for the presence of evolved lithologies on the lunar surface. It is possible, however, that Hansteen Alpha represents an isolated occurrence of non-mare volcanism. That is why we have chosen to use the forward modeling technique of Lawrence et al. to investigate the Th abundances at other lunar red spots, starting with the Gruithuisen domes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Hagerty, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cross-calibration of liquid and solid QCT calibration standards: corrections to the UCSF normative data

Quantitative computed tomography (QCT) has been shown to be a precise and sensitive method for evaluating spinal bone mineral density (BMD) and skeletal response to aging and therapy. Precise and accurate determination of BMD using QCT requires a calibration standard to compensate for and reduce the effects of beam-hardening artifacts and scanner drift. The first standards were based on dipotassium hydrogen phosphate (K2HPO4) solutions. Recently, several manufacturers have developed stable solid calibration standards based on calcium hydroxyapatite (CHA) in water-equivalent plastic. Due to differences in attenuating properties of the liquid and solid standards, the calibrated BMD values obtained with each system do not agree. In order to compare and interpret the results obtained on both systems, cross-calibration measurements were performed in phantoms and patients using the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) liquid standard and the Image Analysis (IA) solid standard on the UCSF GE 9800 CT scanner. From the phantom measurements, a highly linear relationship was found between the liquid- and solid-calibrated BMD values. No influence on the cross-calibration due to simulated variations in body size or vertebral fat content was seen, though a significant difference in the cross-calibration was observed between scans acquired at 80 and 140 kVp. From the patient measurements, a linear relationship between the liquid (UCSF) and solid (IA) calibrated values was derived for GE 9800 CT scanners at 80 kVp (IA = [1.15 x UCSF] - 7.32).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗

NASA NTRS1999

Surface Ages and Resurfacing Rates of the Polar Layered Deposits on Mars

The martian polar layered deposits (PLD) are probably the best source of information about the recent climate history of Mars, but their origin and the mechanisms of accumulation are still a mystery. The polar layers are sedimentary deposits that most planetary scientists believe are composed of water ice and varying amounts of wind-blown dust, but their composition is poorly constrained. Interpretation of the observed polar stratigraphy in terms of global climate changes is complicated by the significant difference in surface ages between the north and south PLD inferred from crater statistics. While no craters have been found in the north PLD, the surface of the south PLD appears to have been stable for many of the orbital/axial cycles that are thought to have induced global climate changes on Mars. Using medium-resolution Viking imagery, Plaut et al. found at least 15 impact craters in the southern layered deposits and concluded that their surface is 120 +/- 40 million years old. In contrast, Cutts et al. found no fresh impact craters larger than about 300 meters in summertime images of the north polar layered deposits. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Herkenhoff, K. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature engineering descriptors, transforms, and machine learning for grain boundaries and variable-sized atom clusters

Abstract Obtaining microscopic structure-property relationships for grain boundaries is challenging due to their complex atomic structures. Recent efforts use machine learning to derive these relationships, but the way the atomic grain boundary structure is represented can have a significant impact on the predictions. Key steps for property prediction common to grain boundaries and other variable-sized atom clustered structures include: (1) describing the atomic structure as a feature matrix, (2) transforming the variable-sized feature matrix to a fixed length common to all structures, and (3) applying a machine learning algorithm to predict properties from the transformed matrices. We examine how these steps and different combinations of engineered features impact the accuracy of grain boundary energy predictions using a database of over 7000 grain boundaries. Additionally, we assess how different engineered features support interpretability, offering insights into the physics of the structure-property relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rotational excitation and de-excitation of magnesium mono-sulphide (MgS) by He collisions

ABSTRACT Magnesium mono-sulphide (MgS) plays a crucial role in astrochemical processes, particularly in the interstellar medium (ISM), where metal-sulphur chemistry influences molecular formation and evolution. This work presents a detailed study of the rotational excitation and de-excitation of MgS through collisions with helium (He) atoms, the second most abundant species in the ISM after hydrogen, which includes both atomic (H) and molecular forms (H2). The focus on MgS–He collisions arises from He's high abundance, chemical inertness, and simpler electronic structure, which make it well suited for quantum scattering calculations. These characteristics establish He as an ideal candidate for initial studies, providing fundamental data for future investigations involving H2. The study uses quantum scattering methods to calculate the collisional rate coefficients over a broad temperature range. These rates are critical for interpreting observational data on MgS and predicting its abundance in space. The interaction potential between MgS and He is calculated using the rigid rotor approximation and the Jacobi coordinate system, employing the CCSD(T)-F12a/aug-cc-pVTZ method for accurate two-dimensional potential energy surface. The study explores the anisotropic nature of the MgS–He interaction, which favours odd Δj rotational transitions at low collision energies. The inelastic cross-sections for rotational transitions involving up to 16 rotational levels of MgS were computed up to 1000 cm−1, enabling the calculation of rate coefficients up to 150 K for Δj = ±1, ±2, and ± 3 rotational transitions. The results show that Δj = 1 transitions dominate at low temperatures, while Δj = 2 transitions become more significant at higher temperatures. This study provides valuable data for interpreting future astrophysical observations of MgS. The findings also propose new rotational transitions for MgS detection in space, enhancing our ability to track and study this molecule in various cosmic environments.

Hendaoui, Hamza (ORCID:0000000218641872)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Rare Earth Element Partitioning in Lunar Minerals: An Experimental Study

The partitioning behavior of rare earth elements (REE) between minerals and melts is widely used to interpret the petrogenesis and geologic context of terrestrial and extra-terrestrial samples. REE are important tools for modelling the evolution of the lunar interior. The ubiquitous negative Eu anomaly in lunar basalts is one of the main lines of evidence to support the lunar magma ocean (LMO) hypothesis, by which the plagioclase-rich lunar highlands were formed as a flotation crust during differentiation of a global-scale magma ocean. The separation of plagioclase from the mafic cumulates is thought to be the source of the Eu depletion, as Eu is very compatible in plagioclase. Lunar basalts and volcanic glasses are commonly depleted in light REEs (LREE), and more enriched in heavy REEs (HREE). However, there is very little experimental data available on REE partitioning between lunar minerals and melts. In order to interpret the source of these distinctive REE patterns, and to model lunar petrogenetic processes, REE partition coefficients (D) between lunar minerals and melts are needed at conditions relevant to lunar processes. New data on D(sub REE) for plagioclase, and pyroxenes are now available, but there is limited available data for olivine/melt D(sub REE), particularly at pressures higher than 1 bar, and in Fe-rich and reduced compositions - all conditions relevant to the lunar mantle. Based on terrestrial data, REE are highly incompatible in olivine (i.e. D much less than 1), however olivine is the predominant mineral in the lunar interior, so it is important to understand whether it is capable of storing even small amounts of REE, and how the REEs might be fractionatied, in order to understand the trace element budget of the lunar interior. This abstract presents results from high-pressure and temperature experiments investigating REE partitioning between olivine and melt in a composition relevant to lunar magmatism.

McIntosh, E. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ANGSA Program: A Low-cost Lunar "Sample Return Mission". An Overview and Progress over the Last 18 Months

The Apollo Program returned 381 kg of samples. Analyses of these samples have provided fundamental insights into the origin and history of the Earth-Moon system and how planets and even solar systems work. These samples have provided ground truth for every post-Apollo mission to the Moon for the interpretation of remotely sensed data. After 50 years of analysis and study, our sophistication for handling and examining samples has greatly increased. Some special samples that were collected or preserved in unique containers or environments remain unexamined by standard or advanced analytical approaches. The Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis (ANGSA) Program was designed to examine a subset of these special samples. The ANGSA consortium consists of 9 original teams funded by NASA that have combined into a single science team referred to as the ANGSA Science Team. The program was designed to function as the sample analysis portion of a sample return mission with processing, preliminary examination, and analyses utilizing new and improved technologies and recent mission observations. The ANGSA Program links the first generation of lunar explorers (Apollo) with future explorers of the Moon (Artemis). The purpose of this abstract is to highlight the ANGSA samples, science and engineering goals, and progress made so far. Related abstracts and talks will focus on the links between Apollo and Artemis, geologic context, and initial examination, processing, and results.

F M McCubbin↗