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At least 235 records · Page 13

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DOE OSTI1991

Recommendations for Establishing Local Rural Electrification Programs Using Photovoltaic Systems [Recomendaciones Para la Implantacidn de Programas Locales de Electrificacidn Rural con Sistemas Fotovoltaicos]

Photovoltaic (PV) technology is becoming one the best options for supplying electricity to rural communities far from electrical networks and which have a small and disperse demand for electricity. As the cost of the technology goes down and its development advances, opportunities for applying it continue to grow. As a result, in the near future we will probably see an increase in massive application programs of this technology in rural Mexico. This document presents some of the most relevant problems needing immediate solution to increase the possibility of success in establishing photovoltaic programs for rural electrification in Mexico. These problems are influenced by economic, technological, engineering, infrastructural, social and political issues. The paper presents the requirements for an industrial center based on PV technology, the accessibility of replacement parts and maintenance service, development of financial solutions, training of the users and introducing norms and technical regulations. The document summarizes the issue of rural electrification in Mexico, emphasizing the low population density in these areas. A brief description is given of photovoltaics showing different configurations that can be utilized for supplying electricity to the rural areas. The issues involved and recommendations for introducing PV systems to the rural area are described.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1970

Probability limit theorems and the convergence of finite difference approximations of partial differential equations

Partial differential equations finite difference approximation, applying convergence theorems with probabilistic method

Kushner, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Analysis of daily latitude variations

The daily latitude measurements of the International Polar Motion Service are analyzed. The annual oscillation in the data was modeled by separate oscillations in each observatory's latitude data. The separate oscillations varied in amplitude from 0.05 sec to 0.15 sec with standard deviations of about 0.007 sec. Within the resolution of the latitude residuals (150 cm), there is no indication of the sharp changes which might be associated with earthquake effects. Then, applying Schuster's test to a periodogram of the residuals indicates that there are probably several processes occurring at amplitudes between 0.007 sec and 0.03 sec whose solution awaits a more precise measurement technique.

Graber, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Sensory redundancy management: The development of a design methodology for determining threshold values through a statistical analysis of sensor output data

Sensor redundancy management (SRM) requires a system which will detect failures and reconstruct avionics accordingly. A probability density function to determine false alarm rates, using an algorithmic approach was generated. Microcomputer software was developed which will print out tables of values for the cummulative probability of being in the domain of failure; system reliability; and false alarm probability, given a signal is in the domain of failure. The microcomputer software was applied to the sensor output data for various AFT1 F-16 flights and sensor parameters. Practical recommendations for further research were made.

Scalzo, F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Interference problems for nongeostationary satellites

The interference problems faced by nongeostationary satellites may be of major significance. A general discussion indicates the scope of the problems and describes several configurations of importance. Computer programs are described, which are employed by NASA/JPL and the U.S. Air Force Satellite Control Facility to provide interference-free scheduling of commands and data transmission. Satellite system mission planners are not concerned with the precise prediction of interference episodes, but rather with the expected total amount of interference, the mean and maximum duration of events, and the mean spacing between episodes. The procedures in the theory of probability developed by the author which permit calculation of such quantities are described and applied to several real cases. It may be anticipated that the problems will become steadily worse in the future as more and more data transmissions attempt to occupy the same frequency band.

Sollfrey, W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Defining reclaimed water potability requirements

Water used during previous space missions has been either carried or made aloft. Future human space endeavors will probably have to utilize some form of water reclamation and recycling. There is little applied experience in either the US or foreign space programs with this technology. Water reclamation and recycling constitutes an engineering challenge of the broadest nature and will require an intensive research and development effort if this technology is to mature in time for practical use on the proposed US spacestation. In order for this to happen, reclaimed/recycled water specification will need to be devised to guide engineering development. Perhaps the most strigent specifications will involve water to be consumed. NASA's present Potable Water Specifications are not applicable to reclaimed or recycled potable water. No specifications for reclaimed or recycled potable water presently exist either inside or outside NASA. NASA's past experience with potable water systems is reviewed, limitations of the present Potable Water Specifications are examined, present world expertise with potable water reclamation/recycling systems and system analogs is reviewed, and an approach to developing pertinent Reclaimed/Recycled Potable Water Specifications for spacecraft is presented.

Janik, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

NDE of advanced ceramics

Radiographic, ultrasonic, and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high-density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was capable also of detecting voids, inclusions, and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermoacoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. Some limitations and the detection probability statistics of the aforementioned nondestructive evaluation (NDE) processes are also discussed.

Klima, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Equivalent linearization for fatigue life estimates of a nonlinear structure

An adaptation of the method of equivalent linearization is developed in order to estimate the fatigue life of a nonlinear structure excited by Gaussian white noise. While conventional equivalent linearization has been successfully applied to approximate the mean square responses of the variety of complex nonlinear systems, it has not been possible to apply the method for fatigue predictions. This limitation results from the assumption that the probability density of the response of the nonlinear system is Gaussian, which is not generally true. In the present effort, a modification of equivalent linearization, developed by the author, is employed which has been shown in recent studies to provide a much more accurate description of the random response of a nonlinear structure than provided by conventional equivalent linearization. A method is presented for estimating fatigue life based on this approach and results are compared with those obtained using both numerical simulation and the classical method. The fatigue life is estimated for a nonlinear plate vibrating in a single resonant mode with random white noise excitation. Excellent agreement is found between all three methods. These results indicate that equivalent linearization may be extended to predict the fatigue life of more complex nonlinear systems than can be analyzed at present.

Miles, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dynamic test input generation for multiple-fault isolation

Recent work is Causal Reasoning has provided practical techniques for multiple fault diagnosis. These techniques provide a hypothesis/measurement diagnosis cycle. Using probabilistic methods, they choose the best measurements to make, then update fault hypotheses in response. For many applications such as computers and spacecraft, few measurement points may be accessible, or values may change quickly as the system under diagnosis operates. In these cases, a hypothesis/measurement cycle is insufficient. A technique is presented for a hypothesis/test-input/measurement diagnosis cycle. In contrast to generating tests a priori for determining device functionality, it dynamically generates tests in response to current knowledge about fault probabilities. It is shown how the mathematics previously used for measurement specification can be applied to the test input generation process. An example from an efficient implementation called Multi-Purpose Causal (MPC) is presented.

Schaefer, Phil↗

NASA NTRS1993

Movable Cameras And Monitors For Viewing Telemanipulator

Three methods proposed to assist operator viewing telemanipulator on video monitor in control station when video image generated by movable video camera in remote workspace of telemanipulator. Monitors rotated or shifted and/or images in them transformed to adjust coordinate systems of scenes visible to operator according to motions of cameras and/or operator's preferences. Reduces operator's workload and probability of error by obviating need for mental transformations of coordinates during operation. Methods applied in outer space, undersea, in nuclear industry, in surgery, in entertainment, and in manufacturing.

Diner, Daniel B.↗

NASA NTRS1930

Joint Report on Standardization Tests on N.P.L. R.A.F 15 Airfoil Model

This report contains the wind-tunnel test data obtained in the United States on a 36 by 6 inch R.A.F. 15 airfoil model prepared by the British Aeronautical Research Committee for International Trials. Tests were made in cooperation with the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics at the Bureau of Standards, Langley Memorial Aeronautical Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and McCook field. In addition to brief descriptions of the various wind tunnels and methods of testing, the report contains an analysis of the test data. It is shown that while in general the agreement is quite satisfactory there are two cases in which it is unsatisfactory. Since the lack of agreement in the latter is probably explained by errors known to be inherent in the methods of determining and applying corrections in these particular tests, it is concluded that the agreement obtained is more a matter of technique than a wind tunnel characteristic. (author)

Diehl, Walter S↗

NASA NTRS2004

Experiences with Probabilistic Analysis Applied to Controlled Systems

This paper presents a semi-analytic method for computing frequency dependent means, variances, and failure probabilities for arbitrarily large-order closed-loop dynamical systems possessing a single uncertain parameter or with multiple highly correlated uncertain parameters. The approach will be shown to not suffer from the same computational challenges associated with computing failure probabilities using conventional FORM/SORM techniques. The approach is demonstrated by computing the probabilistic frequency domain performance of an optimal feed-forward disturbance rejection scheme.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Red light-regulated growth. I. Changes in the abundance of indoleacetic acid and a 22-kilodalton auxin-binding protein in the maize mesocotyl

We examined the changes in the levels of indoleacetic acid (IAA), IAA esters, and a 22-kilodalton subunit auxin-binding protein (ABP1) in apical mesocotyl tissue of maize (Zea mays L.) during continuous red light (R) irradiation. These changes were compared with the kinetics of R-induced growth inhibition in the same tissue. Upon the onset of continuous irradiation, growth decreased in a continuous manner following a brief lag period. The decrease in growth continued for 5 hours, then remained constant at 25% of the dark rate. The abundance of ABP1 and the level of free IAA both decreased in the mesocotyl. Only the kinetics of the decrease in IAA within the apical mesocotyl correlated with the initial change in growth, although growth continued to decrease even after IAA content reached its final level, 50% of the dark control. This decrease in IAA within the mesocotyl probably occurs primarily by a change in its transport within the shoot since auxin applied as a pulse move basipetally in R-irradiated tissue at the same rate but with half the area as dark control tissue. In situ localization of auxin in etiolated maize shoots revealed that R-irradiated shoots contained less auxin in the epidermis than the dark controls. Irradiated mesocotyl grew 50% less than the dark controls even when incubated in an optimal level of auxin. However, irradiated and dark tissue contained essentially the same amount of radioactivity after incubation in [14C]IAA indicating that the light treatment does not affect the uptake into the tissue through the cut end, although it is possible that a small subset of cells within the mesocotyl is affected. These observations support the hypothesis that R causes a decrease in the level of auxin in epidermal cells of the mesocotyl, consequently constraining the growth of the entire mesocotyl.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗