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The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗

Exploring the Arctic Ocean With Sailing Robots

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly as the planet warms, but studying it presents challenges: it’s a remote area that is often covered by sea ice. As CHELLE GENTEMANN, MARISOL GARCÍA-REYES and JORGE VAZQUEZ-CUERVO explain, using autonomous solar-powered sailing robots is a safe, reliable and climate-friendly way to collect the data we need.

Arctic↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-23246-DND

The Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) was conducted from Fairbanks, Alaska during the September transition in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas. Fifteen missions were flown with a NASA C-130 to characterize clouds, sea-ice, and associated radiative properties over a wide range of conditions. The advanced instrumentation payload included broadband and spectral radiometers, in-situ cloud probes, a laser altimeter and digital camera system. The flight profiles were tightly coordinated with multiple intersecting satellite overpasses allowing for a thorough evaluation of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite climate data products. Thus, a rich dataset was acquired to help better understand cloud radiative effects as sea-ice conditions are changing due to arctic warming. The mission also acquired measurements to supplement the ongoing Operation Icebridge campaign. An overview of the mission operations, preliminary results, and a description of the datasets now available to the scientific community, will be presented.

William L Smith, Jr↗

Environmental controls on ecosystem-scale cold-season methane and carbon dioxide fluxes in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

Abstract. Understanding the processes that influence and control carbon cycling in Arctic tundra ecosystems is essential for making accurate predictions about what role these ecosystems will play in potential future climate change scenarios. Particularly, air–surface fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide are of interest as recent observations suggest that the vast stores of soil carbon found in the Arctic tundra are becoming more available to release to the atmosphere in the form of these greenhouse gases. Further, harsh wintertime conditions and complex logistics have limited the number of year-round and cold-season studies and hence too our understanding of carbon cycle processes during these periods. We present here a two-year micrometeorological data set of methane and carbon dioxide fluxes, along with supporting soil pore gas profiles, that provide near-continuous data throughout the active summer and cold winter seasons. Net emission of methane and carbon dioxide in one of the study years totalled 3.7 and 89 g C m−2 a−1 respectively, with cold-season methane emission representing 54 % of the annual total. In the other year, net emission totals of methane and carbon dioxide were 4.9 and 485 g C m−2 a−1 respectively, with cold-season methane emission here representing 82 % of the annual total – a larger proportion than has been previously reported in the Arctic tundra. Regression tree analysis suggests that, due to relatively warmer air temperatures and deeper snow depths, deeper soil horizons – where most microbial methanogenic activity takes place – remained warm enough to maintain efficient methane production whilst surface soil temperatures were simultaneously cold enough to limit microbial methanotrophic activity. These results provide valuable insight into how a changing Arctic climate may impact methane emission, and highlight a need to focus on soil temperatures throughout the entire active soil profile, rather than rely on air temperature as a proxy for modelling temperature–methane flux dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Open-Ocean Sensible Heat Flux and Its Significance for Arctic Boundary Layer Mixing During Early Fall

The increasing ice-free area during late summer has transformed the Arctic to a climate system with more dynamic boundary layer (BL) clouds and seasonal sea ice growth. The open-ocean sensible heat flux, a crucial mechanism of excessive ocean heat loss to the atmosphere during the fall freeze season, is speculated to play an important role in the recently observed cloud cover increase and BL instability. However, lack of observations and understanding of the resilience of the proposed mechanisms, especially in relation to meteorological and interannual variability, has left a poorly constrained BL parameterization scheme in Arctic climate models. In this study, we use multiyear Japanese cruise-ship observations from RV Mirai over the open Arctic Ocean to characterize the surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) during early fall and investigate its contribution to BL turbulence. It is found that mixing by SSHF is favored during episodes of high surface wind speed and is also influenced by the prevailing cloud regime. The deepest BLs and maximum ocean-atmosphere temperature difference are observed during cold air advection (associated with the stratocumulus regime), yet, contrary to previous speculation, the efficiency of sensible heat exchange is low. On the other hand, the SSHF contributes significantly to BL mixing during the uplift (low pressure) followed by the highly stable (stratus) regime. Overall, it can explain 10 of the open ocean BL height variability, whereas cloud-driven (moisture and radiative) mechanisms appear to be the other dominant source of convective turbulence. Nevertheless, there is strong interannual variability in the relationship between the SSHF and the BL height which can be intensified by the changing occurrence of Arctic climate patterns, such as positive surface wind speed anomalies and more frequent conditions of uplift. This study highlights the need for comprehensive BL observations like the RV Mirai for better understanding and predicting the dynamic nature of the Arctic climate.

boundary layer↗

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landsat Derived Bathymetry of Lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plan of Northern Alaska

The Pleistocene sand sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by anancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, whichcover approximately 20 % of the Pleistocene sand sea, are relatively deep (up to 25 m). In addition to the nat-ural importance of ACP sand sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need forwinter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource.However, ACP sand sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we collect in situ bathymetric data to test12 model variants for predicting sand sea lake depth based on analysis of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager(OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in midsummer 2017 using a Humminbird 798ciHD SI Combo automatic sonar system. The field-measured data points were compared to red–green–blue (RGB)bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and map bathymetry. Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (withbands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For eachlake, the most accurate model explained 81.8 % of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetrieswere integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which rangedfrom 1.056×10−3to 57.416×10−3km3. Due to variations in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity betweenlakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ datawith which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will fa-cilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluatefuture responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. All sonar depth data and modeled lakebathymetry rasters can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2SN01440 (Simpson and Arp, 2018) andhttps://doi.org/10.18739/A2HT2GC6G (Simpson, 2019), respectively.

Claire E Simpson↗

Wildfire Adaptation in the Russian Arctic: A Systematic Policy Review

A scientific consensus acknowledges that climate change has increased wildfire activity in the Russian Arctic, a trend projected to continue in response to further warming. Regional governments across Russia have started to design and develop adaptation policies and plans (i.e. outputs) to this end. Our comprehensive understanding on the state of wildfire adaptation in policy is limited. In this article we systematically review policies and plans developed to adapt to wildfires in the Russian Arctic. Using systematic approaches, we identify 12 wildfire adaptation outputs adopted between 2008 and 2020. Our findings indicate that wildfire adaptation outputs are aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires and improve wildland fire response, implemented through legislative and regulatory mechanisms, developed at the regional level, adopted in response to national mandates, and mainstreamed into existing forest management policies. Although there is evidence of wildfire adaptation planning occurring in the Russian Arctic, we find that the nature and extent of wildfire adaptation outputs are not sufficient to address the seriousness and severity of climate change, with key shortcomings found in relation to the scientific, human, and management characteristics. We argue that expanding the profile of climate change research in the Russian Arctic and improving the dialogue among researchers, local and Indigenous peoples, and decision-makers are critical for providing useful recommendations for policy makers to accelerate wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic.

Wildfire↗

Relative importance of high-latitude local and long-range-transported dust for Arctic ice-nucleating particles and impacts on Arctic mixed-phase clouds

Dust particles, serving as ice-nucleating particles (INPs), may impact the Arctic surface energy budget and regional climate by modulating the mixed-phase cloud properties and lifetime. In addition to long-range transport from low-latitude deserts, dust particles in the Arctic can originate from local sources. However, the importance of high-latitude dust (HLD) as a source of Arctic INPs (compared to low-latitude dust, LLD) and its effects on Arctic mixed-phase clouds are overlooked. In this study, we evaluate the contribution to Arctic dust loading and INP population from HLD and six LLD source regions by implementing a source-tagging technique for dust aerosols in version 1 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Our results show that HLD is responsible for 30.7 % of the total dust burden in the Arctic, whereas LLD from Asia and North Africa contributes 44.2 % and 24.2 %, respectively. Due to its limited vertical transport as a result of stable boundary layers, HLD contributes more in the lower troposphere, especially in boreal summer and autumn when the HLD emissions are stronger. LLD from North Africa and East Asia dominates the dust loading in the upper troposphere with peak contributions in boreal spring and winter. The modeled INP concentrations show better agreement with both ground and aircraft INP measurements in the Arctic when including HLD INPs. The HLD INPs are found to induce a net cooling effect (-0.24 W m -2 above 60 °N) on the Arctic surface downwelling radiative flux by changing the cloud phase of the Arctic mixed-phase clouds. The magnitude of this cooling is larger than that induced by North African and East Asian dust (0.08 and -0.06 W m -2 , respectively), mainly due to different seasonalities of HLD and LLD. Uncertainties of this study are discussed, which highlights the importance of further constraining the HLD emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polar process and world climate /A brief overview/

A review is presented of events relating polar regions to the world climate, the mechanisms of sea ice and polar ice sheets, and of two theories of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. The sea ice which varies over time scales of one or two years and the polar ice sheets with time changes measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of years introduce two distinct time constants into global time changes; the yearly Arctic sea ice variations affect northern Europe and have some effect over the entire Northern Hemisphere; the ice-albedo coupling in the polar ice sheets is involved in major climatic events such as the Pleistocene ice ages. It is concluded that climate problems require a global approach including the atmosphere, the oceans, and the cryosphere.

Goody, R.↗

Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal

To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.

Stone, Peter H.↗

Illuminating Albedo: Using MOSAiC Data to Assess the CERES Cloud Radiative Swath (CRS) Albedo Quantification Process

Increasing surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures as a result of rising greenhouse gases are expected to be most pronounced over the Arctic. Such rapid changes alter the surface climate of the region, and impacts can be observed atmospherically, oceanographically, and biogeophysically. Accurately quantifying the impact of decreasing surface albedo on the surface energy budget with satellite observations alone is complicated by a lack of shortwave radiation during winter and seasonal/spatial heterogeneity of surface type and associated spectral albedo. NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project features the Cloud Radiative Swath (CRS) product, which builds upon the Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product by using the NASA Langley Fu-Liou radiative transfer model to calculate a robust and high-quality array of surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes on an instantaneous, footprint-level scale. This study aims to use MOSAiC and CRS data to illuminate potential uncertainties in the CERES albedo production process, with goals of determining 1) spectral albedo under clear sky conditions when stratified by ice concentration, 2) the uncertainty associated with CERES surface albedo “history maps” when compared against observations captured during MOSAiC, and 3) the magnitude of variation between meteorological inputs compared to those from MOSAiC.

Emily Monroe↗

Arctic Permafrost Thawing Enhances Sulfide Oxidation

Permafrost degradation is altering biogeochemical processes throughout the Arctic. Thaw-induced changes in organic matter transformations and mineral weathering reactions are impacting fluxes of inorganic carbon (IC) and alkalinity (ALK) in Arctic rivers. However, the net impact of these changing fluxes on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO 2 ) is relatively unconstrained. Resolving this uncertainty is important as thaw-driven changes in the fluxes of IC and ALK could produce feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. Enhanced production of sulfuric acid through sulfide oxidation is particularly poorly quantified despite its potential to remove ALK from the ocean-atmosphere system and increase pCO 2 , producing a positive feedback leading to more warming and permafrost degradation. In this work, we quantified weathering in the Koyukuk River, a major tributary of the Yukon River draining discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska, based on water and sediment samples collected near the village of Huslia in summer 2018. Using measurements of major ion abundances and sulfate (SO 4 2- ) sulfur ( 34 S/ 32 S) and oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O) isotope ratios, we employed the MEANDIR inversion model to quantify the relative importance of a suite of weathering processes and their net impact on pCO 2 . Calculations found that approximately 80% of SO 4 2- in mainstem samples derived from sulfide oxidation with the remainder from evaporite dissolution. Moreover, 34 S/ 32 S ratios, 13 C/ 12 C ratios of dissolved IC, and sulfur X-ray absorption spectra of mainstem, secondary channel, and floodplain pore fluid and sediment samples revealed modest degrees of microbial sulfate reduction within the floodplain. Weathering fluxes of ALK and IC result in lower values of pCO 2 over timescales shorter than carbonate compensation (~10 4 yr) and, for mainstem samples, higher values of pCO 2 over timescales longer than carbonate compensation but shorter than the residence time of marine (~10 7 yr). Furthermore, the absolute concentrations of and Mg 2+ in the Koyukuk River, as well as the ratios of SO 4 2- and Mg 2+ to other dissolved weathering products, have increased over the past 50 years. Through analogy to similar trends in the Yukon River, we interpret these changes as reflecting enhanced sulfide oxidation due to ongoing exposure of previously frozen sediment and changes in the contributions of shallow and deep flow paths to the active channel. Overall, these findings confirm that sulfide oxidation is a substantial outcome of permafrost degradation and that the sulfur cycle responds to permafrost thaw with a timescale-dependent feedback on warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NGEE Arctic LANL Overview [Slides]

The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project has a goal to "deliver a process-rich ecosystem model, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy/atmospheric interface, in which the evolution of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate can be modeled at the scale of a high resolution Earth System Model (ESM) grid cell." LANL works across multiple NGEE Arctic science questions, such as: Q1. How does the structure and organization of the landscape control permafrost evolution and associated carbon and nutrient fluxes in a changing climate? Q5. Where, when, and why will the Arctic become wetter or drier, and what are the implications for climate forcing? and Q6. What controls the vulnerability of Arctic ecosystems to disturbance, and how do disturbances alter the structure and function of these ecosystems? This report features LANL's research summaries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.↗

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

Arctic Sea Ice and Its Role in Global Change

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. Sea ice forms, grows, and melts in the ocean. Sea ice grows during the fall and winter and melts during the spring and summer. Sea ice can melt completely in summer or survive multiple years. Sea ice can be classified by stages of development (thickness and age), that is, first-year sea ice (ice thickness typically <1.8 m) and multiyear sea ice (ice thickness typically >1.8 m). Sea ice occurs in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice develops in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding bodies including Hudson and Baffin Bay, Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Greenland Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk (sea ice can be observed as far south as Bohai Bay, China, ~38°N). In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice only develops around Antarctica, reaching a maximum equatorward extension at around ~55°S).

Liu, Jiping↗