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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the genesis and intensification of simultaneous cyclones in the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal in November 2020

The North Indian Ocean (NIO), which includes the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), is frequently impacted by tropical cyclones (TCs). Notably, in November 2020, the simultaneous occurrence of Cyclones Gati in the AS and Nivar in the BoB presented a rare and compelling phenomenon worthy of investigation. This study delves into the underlying mechanisms driving the genesis and intensification of these two Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS). Key contributing factors include elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), both crucial for the development and intensification of TCs. Notably, the BoB exhibits higher TCHP values compared to the AS, which facilitated greater intensity for Nivar over Gati. Despite their concurrent formation, the genesis processes of Gati and Nivar were distinct. The early November development of Gati in the AS was modulated by the Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Subsequently, the eastward propagation of the MJO triggered the formation of Cyclone Nivar in the BoB, enhancing convective activity from the AS and coinciding with the arrival of a downward-propagating Rossby wave. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the simultaneous formation of Gati and Nivar, contributing novel insights into the complex interactions between oceanic and atmospheric phenomena. In conclusion, such insights are vital for enhancing the predictive capabilities for destructive weather events in the NIO.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proximal Galerkin: A Structure-Preserving Finite Element Method for Pointwise Bound Constraints

The proximal Galerkin finite element method is a high-order, low iteration complexity, nonlinear numerical method that preserves the geometric and algebraic structure of pointwise bound constraints in infinite-dimensional function spaces. This paper introduces the proximal Galerkin method and applies it to solve free boundary problems, enforce discrete maximum principles, and develop a scalable, mesh-independent algorithm for optimal design with pointwise bound constraints. This paper also introduces the latent variable proximal point (LVPP) algorithm, from which the proximal Galerkin method derives. When analyzing the classical obstacle problem, we discover that the underlying variational inequality can be replaced by a sequence of second-order partial differential equations (PDEs) that are readily discretized and solved with, e.g., the proximal Galerkin method. Throughout this work, we arrive at several contributions that may be of independent interest. These include (1) a semilinear PDE we refer to as the entropic Poisson equation; (2) an algebraic/geometric connection between high-order positivity-preserving discretizations and certain infinite-dimensional Lie groups; and (3) a gradient-based, bound-preserving algorithm for two-field, density-based topology optimization. The complete proximal Galerkin methodology combines ideas from nonlinear programming, functional analysis, tropical algebra, and differential geometry and can potentially lead to new synergies among these areas as well as within variational and numerical analysis. Open-source implementations of our methods accompany this work to facilitate reproduction and broader adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breeding latitude is associated with the timing of nesting and migration around the annual calendar among Purple Martin (Progne subis) populations

Timing is critical for species that migrate seasonally, as timing mismatches can lead to reduced reproductive success and population declines. We investigated the effect of breeding latitude on the migration timing of a long-distance migratory songbird (Purple Martin, Progne subis subis) by using light-level geolocators deployed across breeding sites between 26° and 53° latitude (n = 329). We used nesting data (1st egg dates; n=28,165) to explore latitudinal patterns in the timing of breeding. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found that breeding latitude was highly associated with timing around the calendar, explaining population-level timing across both spring and fall migration. Populations breeding at more northern latitudes migrated later in fall (mean days/degree latitude =2), in spring (mean days/degree latitude =3), and nested later (days/degree latitude = 3) than populations breeding at more southern latitudes. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) revealed significant non-linearity between breeding latitude and spring and fall migration timing, and the timing of nesting. In spring, the most northern breeders (> 40 degrees N) were more synchronous in their timing, departing their nonbreeding sites and arriving earlier at their breeding sites relative to their breeding latitude. These most northern breeders also had similar nest timing and fall migration departure timing. Breeding latitude was also associated with seasonal partitioning of migratory and sedentary periods. The most northern breeders spent 10% more time on fall migration, 2% more at wintering grounds, 1% more on spring migration, and 13% less time at their breeding sites. Our results support the notion that selection for timing at breeding latitudes can have year-round effects on the timing of seasonal events in long-distance migratory songbirds. Future studies should examine whether these timing patterns associated with latitude limit phenotypic responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fog Formation Related to Gravity Currents Interacting with Coastal Topography

An interesting mixing-fog event was identified during IOP7 of the C-FOG project, where a cold front arriving from the north-east collided with the Downs peninsula in Ferryland, Newfoundland, to produce foggy conditions. A comprehensive set of field observations suggests that this collision caused turbulent mixing of nearly saturated ambient air with an almost saturated cold front, creating conditions for mixing fog. Additionally, laboratory experiments were performed to study the interaction of lock-exchange induced gravity currents with a (rectangular) obstacle to delve into physical processes underlying this phenomenon. Instantaneous velocity and density fields were obtained using particle image velocimetry and planar laser-induced fluorescence. The observations suggest that the obstacle starts affecting the approaching gravity-current propagation at an upstream distance of 2 H and, upon collision, the mixing is taking place over a spatial scale of 0.83 H , where H is the depth of the ambient fluid layer. The time for largerscale turbulent stirring to permeate to the smallest scales of turbulence and activate the condensation nuclei was estimated as 3t * , where t* = √H/g' is the intrinsic time scale of the gravity current and g' the reduced gravity. Extrapolation of results to IOP7 showed a good agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying queueing theory to evaluate wait-time-savings of triage algorithms

Abstract In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have made promising impacts in many areas of healthcare. One application is AI-enabled prioritization software known as computer-aided triage and notification (CADt). This type of software as a medical device is intended to prioritize reviews of radiological images with time-sensitive findings, thus shortening the waiting time for patients with these findings. While many CADt devices have been deployed into clinical workflows and have been shown to improve patient treatment and clinical outcomes, quantitative methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings from their deployment are not yet available. In this paper, we apply queueing theory methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings of a CADt by calculating the average waiting time per patient image without and with a CADt device being deployed. We study two workflow models with one or multiple radiologists (servers) for a range of AI diagnostic performances, radiologist’s reading rates, and patient image (customer) arrival rates. To evaluate the time-saving performance of a CADt, we use the difference in the mean waiting time between the diseased patient images in the with-CADt scenario and that in the without-CADt scenario as our performance metric. As part of this effort, we have developed and also share a software tool to simulate the radiology workflow around medical image interpretation, to verify theoretical results, and to provide confidence intervals for the performance metric we defined. We show quantitatively that a CADt triage device is more effective in a busy, short-staffed reading setting, which is consistent with our clinical intuition and simulation results. Although this work is motivated by the need for evaluating CADt devices, the evaluation methodology presented in this paper can be applied to assess the time-saving performance of other types of algorithms that prioritize a subset of customers based on binary outputs.

Thompson, Yee Lam Elim (ORCID:0000000196537707)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimizing Wear Resistance via Brazing Temperature Adaption: Application into CBN/Cu-Sn-Ti Composites

Cubic boron nitride (CBN)/Cu-Sn-Ti composites as potential superabrasive products are prepared. It is found that as the temperature increases, porosity keeps decreasing from 1123 K to 1223 K but becomes virtually constant afterward, which is inversely coupled to the reaction layer thickness variation. Weight loss arrives at the minimum value at 1223 K. Deep etching over the interfacial region reveals that TiN and TiB{sub 2} compounds have been generated, and their roles in determining wear properties are postulated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Design of Alloys for Energy Technologies

Advanced materials that maintain their mechanical performance under elevated temperatures, corrosive environments, and a range of static and evolving stresses are needed to improve the efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of a wide spectrum of energy technologies. For instance, cost-efficient alloys that can withstand high temperatures (e.g., 700 °C) have a critical role in improving the efficiency and economics of power generation to support decarbonization of the energy sector; such is true of both the nuclear and fossil energy sectors. Considering both the threats of the energy crisis, namely soaring costs of greenhouse gas emission-producing energy and climate change, it is essential to increase the pace of material discovery and enable rapid paths for material qualification to advance clean energy technologies. Conventionally, alloy development has followed a slow Edisonian process that uses repeated cycles of making, characterizing, and modifying to arrive at optimum composition and processing conditions to achieve the desired component performance. This optimization is followed by the necessary stepwise materials qualification. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of sound data management and physics-informed machine learning represents the next step in the acceleration of materials design and development. In the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach, computational modeling and simulation data from different length and time scales can be combined with complex microstructural details from multimodal experimental characterization and selective property testing to close the design loop for rapid alloy development.

Computational Design Of Materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance of a Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) for characterizing radiated noise from marine energy converters

Marine energy converters can generate electricity from energetic ocean waves and water currents. Because sound is extensively used by marine animals, the radiated noise from these systems is of regulatory interest. However, the energetic nature of these locations poses challenges for performing accurate passive acoustic measurements, particularly with stationary platforms. The Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) is a modular hydrophone recording system purpose-built for marine energy environments. Using a flow shield in currents and mass–spring–damper suspension system in waves, we demonstrate that DAISYs can effectively minimize the masking effect of flow noise at frequencies down to 10 Hz. In addition, we show that groups of DAISYs can utilize time-delay-of-arrival post-processing to attribute radiated noise to a specific source. Consequently, DAISYs can rapidly measure radiated noise at all frequencies of interest for prototype marine energy converters. Furthermore, the resulting information from future operational deployments should support regulatory decision-making and allow technology developers to make design adjustments that minimize the potential for acoustic impacts as their systems are scaled up for utility-scale power generation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topographic Controls on the Distribution of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over South Asia

In this work, we use a high-resolution (9 km) one-way nested regional climate modeling framework to systematically evaluate individual and aggregate roles of various components of topography in the precipitation distribution during South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). While it is not the arrival but the north-northwestward extent of summer monsoon precipitation that is regulated by the presence of elevated surfaces in South Asia, both the thermal and mechanical topographic forcing play a role. Topography not only provides mechanical uplifting and prevents dry air entrainment, it also helps regulate the strength of upper level anticyclone and tropical easterly jet, all of which are necessary to sustain a conducive environment for monsoon precipitation in the South Asian summer. In turn, precipitation feedbacks positively by accelerating the tropospheric diabatic warming through atmospheric latent heating and by maintaining the moisture supply through local recycling. Modifications in the topography, particularly the removal of the Tibetan Plateau, substantially modulates the moist flow in the lower troposphere and the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere to an extent that the northern branch of SASM becomes substantially weaker. These changes give way to negative precipitation anomalies and eventually to an environment where the cycle of feedbacks that runs the process of monsoon progression over land becomes inefficient. The design of topographic modification experiments can influence precipitation response; therefore, we advise caution in the interpretation of these and previously reported results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Studies of Laser-Driven Flyer Acceleration Using Optical Fiber Coupling [Book Chapter]

An optically recording velocity interferometer system has been used to measure acceleration histories and maximum velocities for laser-driven aluminum foil targets launched from the output face of optical fibers. Peak flyer velocities have been determined as a function of various parameters, including driving laser fluence, laser pulse duration and target thickness. The results at high fluences are consistent with a nearly constant efficiency of coupling optical energy into flyer kinetic energy and a small ablated mass fraction; however, the coupling efficiency falls off rapidly at fluences < 15 J-cm -2 . Measurement of the time delay between laser pulse arrival at the target and the onset of flyer motion have also been performed. Significant delays are observed at low fluences, arising from the increased time required for plasma formation at the fiber/foil interface under these conditions.

440600 -- Optical Instrumentation-- (1990-)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of sink strength on coherency loss of precipitates in dilute Cu-base alloys during in situ ion irradiation

In situ irradiations with 1 MeV Kr ions at 50~613 K up to a fluence of 6.25 × 10 14 ions/cm 2 (~1.25 displacements per atom, dpa) have been performed on pre-aged dilute Cu-0.9%Co, Cu-0.9%Fe and Cu-0.8%Cr alloys containing uniform matrix dispersions of coherent precipitates in order to study the effects of initial precipitate sink strength, damage dose and irradiation temperature on radiation-induced coherency loss of precipitates. Coherent precipitates with different point defect sink strengths (2πNd, where N and d are the precipitate density and diameter) were used in this work to examine potential differences in atomic relaxation during absorption of point defects. In all cases, irradiation to low doses (<~1 dpa) was very effective at inducing loss of precipitate coherency. At low sink strengths (~10 13 m -2 ), loss of precipitate coherency could be induced for doses ~0.01 dpa. This suggests there might be an efficient preferential medium-range strain-induced bias for absorption of interstitial defects due to tensile strains emanating from the undersized precipitates, which induces relatively rapid loss of coherency at low precipitate sink strengths. High precipitate sink strength (~10 14 m -2 ) conditions were relatively resistant to the radiation-induced loss of coherency (requiring higher doses approaching ~1 dpa) and this might be due to nearly equal numbers of interstitial and vacancy defects arriving at the precipitate interface for such high sink strength conditions. The precipitate coherency loss was observed to have a weak dependence on irradiation temperature. Molecular dynamics simulations confirm a strong effect of precipitate sink strength on the probability of interstitial absorption at precipitates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of deviatoric stress and dislocations on the α to ω phase transformation in Ti

Under extreme conditions, α-Ti becomes unstable and transforms either into β-Ti at high temperature or into ω-Ti at high pressure. In what concerns the α to ω phase transformation (PT), there has been a wide range of experimentally reported transition pressures from approximately 2 to 15 GPa at room temperature. Deviatoric stresses and internal defects are often assumed to be the root cause of this variation. Here, in this study, these postulates are revisited using both continuum mechanics and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. First, a simple continuum model, assuming linear elasticity and isotropic plasticity, is developed to describe the effects of applied stress and dislocations on the stability of an ω nucleus in an infinite α domain. Second, a new MD simulation method is developed to generate an ω nucleus in the α domain utilizing the displacement field identified from the topological analysis. Results from MD simulations show that despite the fact that phase diagrams typically delineate the limits between two phases in terms of only P and T, deviatoric stress promotes the α to ω phase transformation by reducing the critical radius above which an ω nucleus is stable. Furthermore, the required deviatoric stress to nucleate and stabilize a nanoscale ω nucleus is likely emanating from the internal stress of defects such as dislocations. The MD-informed micromechanics models are used to identify favorable configurations where dislocations help favor the α to ω transformation. These configurations show that the interaction with a basal or prismatic dislocation reduces the critical radius of a ω nucleus by about 10 or 16 %, respectively. In addition, prismatic edge dislocations are found to promote the growth of ω nucleus when interacting with the ($\bar{1}$$\bar{1}$20) α //(0001) ω interface. Importantly, a simple model of the arrival of dislocation at an ω nucleus suggests that PT does not necessarily require a pile-up to be present but could alternatively be mediated by a constant rapid flow of dislocations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trajectory of Growth of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants in Houston, Texas, January through May 2021, Based on 12,476 Genome Sequences

Certain genetic variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of substantial concern because they may be more transmissible or detrimentally alter the pandemic course and disease features in individual patients. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 12,476 patients in the Houston Methodist health care system diagnosed from January 1 through May 31, 2021 are reported here. Prevalence of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant increased rapidly and caused 63% to 90% of new cases in the latter half of May. Eleven B.1.1.7 genomes had an E484K replacement in spike protein, a change also identified in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Compared with non–B.1.1.7-infected patients, individuals with B.1.1.7 had a significantly lower cycle threshold (a proxy for higher virus load) and significantly higher hospitalization rate. Other variants [eg, B.1.429 and B.1.427 (Epsilon), P.1 (Gamma), P.2 (Zeta), and R.1] also increased rapidly, although the magnitude was less than that in B.1.1.7. Twenty-two patients infected with B.1.617.1 (Kappa) or B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants had a high rate of hospitalization. Breakthrough cases (n = 207) in fully vaccinated patients were caused by a heterogeneous array of virus genotypes, including many not currently designated variants of interest or concern. Finally, in the aggregate, this study delineates the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in a major metropolitan area, documents B.1.1.7 as the major cause of new cases in Houston, TX, and heralds the arrival of B.1.617 variants in the metroplex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Complexity and near extremal charged black branes

Highlights: • Trying to explore a remedy to overcome the puzzle in holographic complexity by assuming a cutoff behind the horizon and the corresponding boundary term. • Holographic complexity growth obtained by the WDW patch on shell action is insensitive to the UV cutoff at the late time. Therefore one may conclude that either on shell action does not compute complexity, or the late time is not given by the physical charges, or in our computations we have missed something! • We find that one needs to carefully compute on shell action taking into account the behind the horizon and the corresponding boundary term. Doing so, one arrives at a consistent picture. • We check this consistency by evaluating the late time complexity growth for near horizon limit of the near extremal black hole using two different methods. We would have obtained non-consistent picture, if we had not considered the behind the horizon cutoff as well as the corresponding boundary term. We compute holographic complexity of charged black brane solutions in arbitrary dimensions for the near horizon limit of near extremal case using two different methods. The corresponding complexity may be obtained either by taking the limit from the complexity of the charged black brane, or by computing the complexity for near horizon limit of near extremal solution. One observes that these results coincide if one assumes to have a cutoff behind horizon whose value is fixed by UV cutoff and also taking into account a proper counterterm evaluated on this cutoff. We also consider the situation for Vaidya charged black branes too.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The oxygen stable isotope composition of CRM 125-A UO 2 standard reference material

While there is a clear need for standardized reference materials for analytical calibrations and for inter-laboratory comparisons, there are not currently any for the oxygen stable isotopic composition of uranium oxides. In this paper we summarize the results from four laboratories by seven different methods of oxygen stable isotope analyses using fluorination techniques of CRM 125-A UO 2 Standard Reference Material. We synthesize these data and methods to arrive at a consensus oxygen stable isotope composition for CRM 125-A $δ$ 18 O = -9.63‰ (±0.29‰) VSMOW. We discuss methodological differences between analytical approaches, including furnace vs laser heating, fluorination using BrF 5 or ClF 3 , as well as calibration strategies. We highlight the potential effects of calibration scale compression from single-point calibrations using reference material with $δ$ 18 O values having a large relative difference from the sample being analyzed. We demonstrate how calibration scale compression can yield differences in calibrated $δ$ 18 O values up to ~2‰ for samples with ~20‰ difference from a single reference material, if the calibration slope of different analytical systems differs by 0.1. In conclusion, we suggest the use of liquid water calibration standards sealed in silver capillary tubes for multi-point calibrations of fluorination analysis systems.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring driving forces for length growth in graphene nanoribbons during chemical vapor deposition of hydrocarbons on Ge(0 0 1) via kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

Graphene grown slowly on Ge(0 0 1) using chemical vapor deposition of hydrocarbons leads to high-aspect ratio graphene nanoribbons with smooth edges and a technologically relevant band gap at room temperature; however, the driving forces leading to one-dimensional growth of such graphene crystals are not well understood. Here, we combine a lattice kinetic Monte Carlo approach based on steps in graphene growth and experimental measurements to study the growth of graphene nanoribbons via chemical vapor deposition on Ge(0 0 1). To identify potential reasons for growth of graphene as anisotropic ribbons, we study the impact of anisotropy in various growth parameters on the resulting graphene crystals. Comparing our model with experimental measurements indicates that anisotropy in the stabilization of a graphene precursor species bound to the graphene edge is the most likely reason why high aspect ratio graphene ribbons with smooth edges grow on Ge(0 0 1). Using the growth model developed here, we reproduce experimental trends in the synthesis of graphene nanoribbons on Ge(001) and arrive at an intuitive picture for their growth. These insights shed light on the driving forces governing this highly anisotropic regime of crystal growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗