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At least 235 records · Page 13

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Miller, James R.↗

Interdisciplinary study of atmospheric processes and constituents of the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Attachment 4: Data set for background investigation of atmospheric constituents for Nansemond River site

Background data was provided for the assessment of the environmental impact of a proposed oil refinery location. Climatic background, particulate data, digitized portrayal of site molecular and meteorological data, graphical portrayal of molecular data, hourly meteorological data, and streamflow charts and radiosonde data are given

Kindle, E. C.↗

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

ACIX-Aqua: A Global Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Methods for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Over Lakes, Rivers, and Coastal Waters

Atmospheric correction over inland and coastal waters is one of the major remaining challenges in aquatic remote sensing, often hindering the quantitative retrieval of biogeochemical variables and analysis of their spatial and temporal variability within aquatic environments. The Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX-Aqua), a joint NASA – ESA activity, was initiated to enable a thorough evaluation of eight state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC) processors available for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data processing. Over 1000 radiometric matchups from both freshwaters (rivers, lakes, reservoirs) and coastal waters were utilized to examine the quality of derived aquatic reflectances (ρ̂w). This dataset originated from two sources: Data gathered from the international scientific community (henceforth called Community Validation Database, CVD), which captured predominantly inland water observations, and the Ocean Color component of AERONET measurements (AERONET-OC), representing primarily coastal ocean environments. This volume of data permitted the evaluation of the AC processors individually (using all the matchups) and comparatively (across seven different Optical Water Types, OWTs) using common matchups. We found that the performance of the AC processors differed for CVD and AERONET-OC matchups, likely reflecting inherent variability in aquatic and atmospheric properties between the two datasets. For the former, the median errors in ρ̂w560 and ρ̂w664 were found to range from 20 to 30% for best-performing processors. Using the AERONET-OC matchups, our performance assessments showed that median errors within the 15–30% range in these spectral bands may be achieved. The largest uncertainties were associated with the blue bands (25 to 60%) for best-performing processors considering both CVD and AERONET-OC assessments. We further assessed uncertainty propagation to the downstream products such as near-surface concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Using satellite matchups from the CVD along with in situ Chla and TSS, we found that 20–30% uncertainties in ρ̂w490≤λ≤743nm yielded 25–70% uncertainties in derived Chla and TSS products for top-performing AC processors. We summarize our results using performance matrices guiding the satellite user community through the OWT-specific relative performance of AC processors. Our analysis stresses the need for better representation of aerosols, particularly absorbing ones, and improvements in corrections for sky- (or sun-) glint and adjacency effects, in order to achieve higher quality downstream products in freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

Nima Pahlevan↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

The origins and early histories of planetary atmospheres

Ancient dry river beds detected on Mars by the Viking spacecraft suggest that the early Martian atmosphere may have been much more massive than at present. Degassing of a late-accreting, volatile-rich veneer may account for the primitive atmosphere of both Mars and earth. The primitive earth atmosphere could have produced a greenhouse effect sufficient to maintain temperatures above 273 K without NH3 and with low solar luminosity. The Venutian veneer, according to preliminary Pioneer results, was probably richer in noble gases relative to carbon and nitrogen than were the Martian and earth veneers. The highly evolved atmosphere of Titan, the large satellite of Saturn, is also discussed.

Owen, T.↗

Modeling geogenic and atmospheric nitrogen through the East River Watershed, Colorado Rocky Mountains

There is a growing understanding of the role that bedrock weathering can play as a source of nitrogen (N) to soils, groundwater and river systems. The significance is particularly apparent in mountainous environments where weathering fluxes can be large. However, our understanding of the relative contributions of rock-derived, or geogenic, N to the total N supply of mountainous watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we develop the High-Altitude Nitrogen Suite of Models (HAN-SoMo), a watershed-scale ensemble of process-based models to quantify the relative sources, transformations, and sinks of geogenic and atmospheric N through a mountain watershed. Our study is based in the East River Watershed (ERW) in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The East River is a near-pristine headwater watershed underlain primarily by an N-rich Mancos Shale bedrock, enabling the timing and magnitude of geogenic and atmospheric contributions to watershed scale dissolved N-exports to be quantified. Several calibration scenarios were developed to explore equifinality using >1600 N concentration measurements from streams, groundwater, and vadose zone samples collected over the course of four years across the watershed. When accounting for recycling of N through plant litter turnover, rock weathering accounts for approximately 12% of the annual dissolved N sources to the watershed in the most probable calibration scenario (0–31% in other scenarios), and 21% (0–44% in other scenarios) when considering only “new” N sources (i.e. geogenic and atmospheric). On an annual scale, instream dissolved N elimination, plant turnover (including cattle grazing) and atmospheric deposition are the most important controls on N cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Design: Advances and Opportunities

National and international security communities (e.g., U.S. Department of Defense) have shown increasing attention for innovating critical infrastructure and installations due to recurring high-profile flooding events in recent years. The standard infrastructure design approach relies on local precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves that do not account for snow process and assume stationary climate, leading to high failure risk and increased maintenance costs. This paper reviews the recently developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that explicitly account for the mechanisms of extreme water available for runoff including rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow under nonstationary climate. The NG-IDF curve is an enhancement to the PREC-IDF curve and provides a consistent design approach across rain- to snow-dominated regions, which can benefit engineers and planners responsible for designing climate-resilient facilities, federal emergency agencies responsible for the flood insurance program, and local jurisdictions responsible for developing design manuals and approving subsequent infrastructure designs. Further, we discuss the recent advances in climate and hydrologic science communities that have not been translated into actional information in the engineering community. To bridge the gap, we advocate that building climate-resilient infrastructure goes beyond the traditional local design scale where engineers rely on recipe-based methods only; the future hydrologic design is a multi-scale problem and requires closer collaboration between climate scientists, hydrologists, and civil engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling of physical influences in sea level records for vertical crustal movement detection

Attempts to specify and evaluate such physical influences are reviewed with the intention of identifying problem areas and promising approaches. An example of linear modelling based on air/water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, river discharges, geostrophic and/or local wind velocities, and including forced period terms to allow for the long period tides and Chandlerian polar motion is evaluated and applied to monthly mean sea levels recorded in Atlantic Canada. Refinement of the model to admit phase lag in the response to some of the driving phenomena is demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the residuals is employed to assess the model performance. The results and associated statistical parameters are discussed with emphasis on elucidating the sensitivity of the technique for detection of local episodic and secular vertical crustal movements, the problem areas most critical to the type of approach, and possible further developments.

Anderson, E. G.↗

Black Carbon in Estuarine (Coastal) High-molecular-weight Dissolved Organic Matter

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the ocean constitutes one of the largest pools of organic carbon in the biosphere, yet much of its composition is uncharacterized. Observations of black carbon (BC) particles (by-products of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning) in the atmosphere, ice, rivers, soils and marine sediments suggest that this material is ubiquitous, yet the contribution of BC to the ocean s DOM pool remains unknown. Analysis of high-molecular-weight DOM isolated from surface waters of two estuaries in the northwest Atlantic Ocean finds that BC is a significant component of DOM, suggesting that river-estuary systems are important exporters of BC to the ocean through DOM. We show that BC comprises 4-7% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at coastal ocean sites, which supports the hypothesis that the DOC pool is the intermediate reservoir in which BC ages prior to sedimentary deposition. Flux calculations suggest that BC could be as important as vascular plant-derived lignin in terms of carbon inputs to the ocean. Production of BC sequesters fossil fuel- and biomass-derived carbon into a refractory carbon pool. Hence, BC may represent a significant sink for carbon to the ocean.

Mannino, Antonio↗

The impact of global warming on river runoff

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Miller, James R.↗

Bedrock weathering rates, reactive nitrogen influxes and effluxes, and nitrous oxide emissions rates from the Pumphouse Hillslope, East River Watershed, Colorado

Atmospheric nitrous oxide contributes directly to global warming, yet models of the nitrogen cycle do not account for bedrock, the largest pool of terrestrial nitrogen, as a source of nitrous oxide. Although it is known that release rates of nitrogen from bedrock are large, there is an incomplete understanding of the connection between bedrock-hosted nitrogen and atmospheric nitrous oxide. Here, we quantify nitrogen fluxes and mass balances at a hillslope underlain by marine shale. We found that at this site bedrock weathering contributes 78% of the subsurface reactive nitrogen, while atmospheric sources (commonly regarded as the sole sources of reactive nitrogen in pristine environments) account for only the remaining 22%. About 56% of the total subsurface reactive nitrogen denitrifies, including 14% emitted as nitrous oxide. The remaining reactive nitrogen discharges in porewaters to a floodplain where additional denitrification likely occurs. We also found that the release of bedrock nitrogen occurs primarily within the zone of the seasonally fluctuating water table and suggest that the accumulation of nitrate in the vadoes zone, often attributed to fertilization and soil leaching, may also include contributions from weathered nitrogen-rich bedrock. Our hillslope study suggests that under oxygenated and moisture-rich conditions, weathering of deep, nitrogen-rich bedrock makes an important contribution to the nitrogen cycle. The data files are in Excel, which can be accessed using Microsoft Office, and consist of many data sets from the Pumphouse Hillslope PLM (Pumphouse Lower Montane) 1, 2, 3, and 4. They include soil to rock (0-10 meters) solid phase minerals and elements compositions; time- and depth-resolved pore-water chemistry and pore-gas compositions; time- and depth-resolved water table depths and water fluxes; subsurface weathering rates; nitrogen influxes and effluxes and mass balance. The attached paper is in a Word document, which can be accessed using Microsoft Office, and in pdf format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Sm-Nd isotopic study of atmospheric dusts and particulates from major river systems

Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios, together with Sm and Nd abundances, are given for particulates from major and minor rivers as well as continental sediments and aeolian dusts collected over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. In combination with data from the literature, the present results have implications for the age, history, and composition of the sedimentary mass and the continental crust. It is noted that the average ratio of Sm/Nd is about 0.19 in the upper continental crust, and has remained so since the early Archean, thereby precluding the likelihood of major mafic-to-felsic or felsic-to-mafic trends in the overall composition of the upper continental crust through earth history. The average 'crustal residence age' of the entire sedimentary mass is about 1.9 Ga.

Goldstein, S. L.↗

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfur, Chlorine and Fluorine Degassing and Atmospheric Loading by the Roza eruption, Columbia River Basalt Group, Washington

In this study we attempt to quantify the amount of S, Cl and F released by the 1300 cu km Roza member (approximately 14.7 Ma) of the Columbia River Basalt Group, which was produced by a moderate-size flood basalt eruption in the mid-Miocene. Our results are the first indication of the potential atmospheric SO2 yield from a flood basalt eruption, and indicate the mechanism by which flood basalt eruptions may have seriously affected the environment. Glass inclusions in phenocrysts and quenched glass in products from various stages of the eruption were analyzed for concentrations of S, Cl and F and major elements. Glass inclusions contain 1965 +/- 110 ppm S, 295 +/- 65 ppm Cl and 1310 +/- 110 ppm F. Groundmass glass of Roza dike selvages contains considerably lower concentrations: 1110 +/- 90 ppm S, 245 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 1020 +/- 25 ppm F. Scoria clasts from near vent deposits contain 665 +/- 75 ppm S, 175 +/- 5 ppm Cl and 950 +/- 20 ppm F, and the groundmass glass of lava selvages contains 520 +/- 30 ppm S, 190 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 890 +/- 55 ppm F. In crystalline lava, the concentrations are 195 ppm S, 100 ppm Cl and 830 ppm F. Volatile element concentrations in these samples represent the progress of degassing through the eruption and can be used to estimate the potential amount of the volatiles S, Cl and F released by the magma into the atmosphere, as well as to evaluate the amount liberated by various phases of the eruption. The total amount of volatiles released by the Roza eruption is estimated to have been approximately 12,420 MtSO2, approximately 710 MtHCI and approximately 1780 MtHF. The Roza magma liberated approximately 9620 MtSO, (77% of the total volatile mass released), approximately 400 MtHCI (56%) and approximately 1450 MtHF (81%) at the vents and lofted by the eruption columns to altitudes of 7-13 km. Degassing of the lava is estimated to have released an additional approximately 2810 MtSO2, approximately 310 MtHCI and approximately 330 MtHF. The Roza eruption is likely to have lasted for approximately 10 years, indicating an annual H2SO4-mass loading of approximately 1800 Mt. Thus, the atmospheric perturbations associated with the Roza eruption may have been of the magnitude predicted for a severe "nuclear" or "volcanic" winter, but lasting up to a decade or more.

Thordarson, Th.↗

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗