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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Storm Safari in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO

In this article, we provide an overview of the experimental design, execution, education and public outreach, data collection, and initial scientific results from the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. RELAMPAGO was a major field campaign conducted in the Córdoba and Mendoza provinces in Argentina and western Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil in 2018–19 that involved more than 200 scientists and students from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. This campaign was motivated by the physical processes and societal impacts of deep convection that frequently initiates in this region, often along the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba and Andes, and often grows rapidly upscale into dangerous storms that impact society. Observed storms during the experiment produced copious hail, intense flash flooding, extreme lightning flash rates, and other unusual lightning phenomena, but few tornadoes. The five distinct scientific foci of RELAMPAGO—convection initiation, severe weather, upscale growth, hydrometeorology, and lightning and electrification—are described, as are the deployment strategies to observe physical processes relevant to these foci. The campaign’s international cooperation, forecasting efforts, and mission planning strategies enabled a successful data collection effort. In addition, the legacy of RELAMPAGO in South America, including extensive multinational education, public outreach, and social media data gathering associated with the campaign, is summarized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the large-scale circulation in South America

The influence of each phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the largescale circulation in South America is investigated using rainfall observations, fully-coupled, large-ensemble, historical simulations (LENS), and forced experiments using the coupled model’s atmospheric component. IOD events often occur when El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of interannual variability of precipitation in South America, is active. To distinguish from effects of ENSO, only cases during neutral ENSO conditions are analyzed in LENS and observations. During the positive IOD polarity, a perturbation in the localWalker circulation leads to increased convection over equatorial South America, resulting in wet anomalies in the Amazon basin. This signal is the opposite of what is expected during El Niño events. Tropical convection anomalies in the Indian Ocean also force an extratropical Rossby wave train that reaches subtropical South America. During positive IOD, the moisture flux from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil weakens, resulting in a drying of the area associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic Subtropical High strengthens, contributing to a drying in southeastern Brazil. During negative IOD, the induced wave train from the Indian Ocean leads to increased moisture transport to the La Plata basin, leading to wet anomalies in the region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effect of temporal averaging of meteorological data on predictions of groundwater recharge

Accurate estimates of infiltration and groundwater recharge are critical for many hydrologic, agricultural and environmental applications. Anticipated climate change in many regions of the world, especially in tropical areas, is expected to increase the frequency of high-intensity, short-duration precipitation events, which in turn will affect the groundwater recharge rate. Estimates of recharge are often obtained using monthly or even annually averaged meteorological time series data. In this study we employed the HYDRUS-1D software package to assess the sensitivity of groundwater recharge calculations to using meteorological time series of different temporal resolutions (i.e., hourly, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly averaged precipitation and potential evaporation rates). Calculations were applied to three sites in Brazil having different climatological conditions: a tropical savanna (the Cerrado), a humid subtropical area (the temperate southern part of Brazil), and a very wet tropical area (Amazonia). To simplify our current analysis, we did not consider any land use effects by ignoring root water uptake. Temporal averaging of meteorological data was found to lead to significant bias in predictions of groundwater recharge, with much greater estimated recharge rates in case of very uneven temporal rainfall distributions during the year involving distinct wet and dry seasons. For example, at the Cerrado site, using daily averaged data produced recharge rates of up to 9 times greater than using yearly averaged data. In all cases, an increase in the time of averaging of meteorological data led to lower estimates of groundwater recharge, especially at sites having coarse-textured soils. Lastly, our results show that temporal averaging limits the ability of simulations to predict deep penetration of moisture in response to precipitation, so that water remains in the upper part of the vadose zone subject to upward flow and evaporation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strengthening Technical Safeguards of Fresh Fuel Through International Cooperation

Over time, nuclear fuel designs have shifted towards having higher initial enrichments and a greater number of burnable poison rods. This enables increased burnup for commercial reasons. These changes have made safeguards measurements of the 235 U content in modern fresh fuel more challenging.This is addressed here through a re-evaluation of the UNCL (Uranium Neutron Collar–Light Water Reactor Fuel)poison rod correction factor. Coefficients of the poison rod correction factor were updated by simulating response of AngraII PWR fuel with a wide range of both burnable poison rods and Gd 2 O 3 contentper rod. Benchmark comparisons are made to experiments performed at Resende (Brazil) and CNEN/LASAL in Brazil. By updating these coefficients, while maintaining the same mathematical form to allow INCC to be used without software modification,it was possible to reduce error in experimental 235 U linear density assay by an order of magnitude.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Global Ethanol-Blended-Fuel Vehicle Compatibility Study

The objective of this study is to understand the impact of ethanol-blended fuel at various blending levels (10%, 15%, and 20% vol.) on "in-operation" vehicles built to differing emissions and manufacturing standards around the world. The study focuses on vehicles used in Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. Historical experience in the United States and Brazil informs the analysis. The primary study question is: Are vehicles in targeted countries physically and operationally compatible with ethanol blended fuel? For a fuel to be compatible with a vehicle, the fuel must perform its function as part of the integrated fuel-vehicle system, meaning: the car should start easily and drive normally, the fuel should not cause catastrophic fuel system leaks, the fuel should not cause corrosion or degradation of any engine or fuel system components (including emissions control components). The history of E10 use in the United States, beginning in 1978, was evaluated and shows no reliability or operability issues for cars dating back to pre-emissions-control times -- and likely included many cars manufactured in the 1960s. This strongly supports the contention that fuel chemistry and property differences between E0 and E10 are so small that any car made to international standards in the last 50 years will have a very high probability of being fully compatible with E10. This conclusion is supported by the experience in Brazil in the 1970s, where E10 was also introduced, and ethanol blending for conventional cars rapidly ramped up to even higher blend levels. A limited number of fuel system and component manufacturers supply the global market, including Bosch, Continental, Denso, Delphi, and Visteon. To reduce complexity, ethanol-compatible materials began to be integrated in fuel system designs globally. Fuel systems evolved over the following decades to incorporate ethanol-compatible materials with core subsystem families, such as in-tank fuel pumps used across several global vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). A similarly compelling case can be made that all cars at the Tier 1 (or equivalent) emissions-control technology level or higher are fully compatible with E15 blends, based on the data evaluated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Ricardo in 2010. For cars at this technology level, the minor differences in fuel chemistry and properties between E10 and E15 are not significant. For E20, studies are not as extensive but are still highly significant. A long-term durability study conducted on mileage accumulation dynamometers presents convincing evidence that Tier 2 technology level cars have materials of construction and engine control authority for compatibility with E20, although this conclusion is not as strong as those drawn for E10 and E15, which are also partly based on real-world experience.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O3, over ranges from hours to days (O3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to as much as 10 µg m−3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air and were confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O:C up to O:C∼1.0, and then decreased as O:C increased further. Possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. While measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O3, they could only explain 10–50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies, which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C=C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. This study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Green Ocean: Precipitation Insights from the GoAmazon2014/5 experiment

This study summarizes the precipitation properties collected during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign near Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil. Precipitation breakdowns, summary radar rainfall relationships and self-consistency concepts from a coupled disdrometer and radar wind profiler measurements are presented. The properties of Amazon cumulus and associated stratiform precipitation are discussed, including segregations according to seasonal (Wet/Dry regime) variability, 5 cloud echo-top height and possible aerosol influences on the apparent oceanic characteristics of the precipitation drop size distributions. Overall, we observe that the Amazon precipitation straddles behaviors found during previous U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurements program (ARM) tropical deployments, with distributions favoring higher concentrations of smaller drops than ARM continental examples. Oceanic type precipitation characteristics are predominantly observed during the Amazon Wet seasons. An exploration of the controls on Wet season precipitation properties reveals that 10 wind direction, as compared with other standard radiosonde thermodynamic parameters or aerosol count/regime classifications performed at the ARM site, provides a good indicator for those Wet season Amazon events having an oceanic character for their precipitation drop size distributions.

aerosol influences↗

Comparison of aircraft measurements during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

The indirect effect of atmospheric aerosol particles on the Earth's radiation balance remains one of the most uncertain components affecting climate change throughout the industrial period. The large uncertainty is partly due to the incomplete understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. One objective of the GoAmazon2014/5 and the ACRIDICON (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems)-CHUVA (Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil) projects was to understand the influence of emissions from the tropical megacity of Manaus (Brazil) on the surrounding atmospheric environment of the rainforest and to investigate its role in the life cycle of convective clouds. During one of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) in the dry season from 1 September to 10 October 2014, comprehensive measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties were carried out at several ground sites. In a coordinated way, the advanced suites of sophisticated in situ instruments were deployed aboard both the US Department of Energy Gulfstream-1 (G1) aircraft and the German High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during three coordinated flights on 9 and 21 September and 1 October. Here, we report on the comparison of measurements collected by the two aircraft during these three flights. Such comparisons are challenging but essential for assessing the data quality from the individual platforms and quantifying their uncertainty sources. Similar instruments mounted on the G1 and HALO collected vertical profile measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, ozone and carbon monoxide mixing ratios, cloud droplet size distributions, and downward solar irradiance. We find that the above measurements from the two aircraft agreed within the measurement uncertainties. The relative fraction of the aerosol chemical composition measured by instruments on HALO agreed with the corresponding G1 data, although the total mass loadings only have a good agreement at high altitudes. Furthermore, possible causes of the discrepancies between measurements on the G1 and HALO are examined in this paper. Based on these results, criteria for meaningful aircraft measurement comparisons are discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Evaluation of a quasi-steady-state approximation of the cloud droplet growth equation (QDGE) scheme for aerosol activation in global models using multiple aircraft data over both continental and marine environments

This research introduces a numerically efficient aerosol activation scheme and evaluates it by using stratus and stratocumulus cloud data sampled during multiple aircraft campaigns in Canada, Chile, Brazil, and China. The scheme employs a quasi-steady-state approximation of the cloud droplet growth equation (QDGE) to efficiently simulate aerosol activation, the vertical profile of supersaturation, and the activated cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) near the cloud base. The calculated maximum supersaturation values using the QDGE scheme were compared with multiple parcel model simulations under various aerosol and environmental conditions. The differences are all below 0.18 %, indicating good performance and accuracy of the QDGE scheme. We evaluated the QDGE scheme by specifying observed environmental thermodynamic variables and aerosol information from 31 cloud cases as input and comparing the simulated CDNC with cloud observations. The average of mean relative error ($\overline{MRE}$) of the simulated CDNC for cloud cases in each campaign ranges from 17.30 % in Brazil to 25.90 % in China, indicating that the QDGE scheme successfully reproduces observed variations in CDNC over a wide range of different meteorological conditions and aerosol regimes. Additionally, we carried out an error analysis by calculating the maximum information coefficient (MIC) between the MRE and input variables for the individual campaigns and all cloud cases. MIC values were then sorted by aerosol properties, pollution level, environmental humidity, and dynamic condition according to their relative importance to MRE. Based on the error analysis, we found that the magnitude of MRE is more relevant to the specification of input aerosol pollution level in marine regions and aerosol hygroscopicity in continental regions than to other variables in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collection of relevant results obtained with the ERTS-1 satellite images by the Institute for Space Research (INPE), volume 2

The author has identified the following significant results. Soil resource studies in Brazil have concluded that: areas with agricultural activities appear surrounding urban centers; some areas are suffering a strong erosion action; there exist two drainage systems near Paraguai River and Parana River; and this region possesses great variety of soil types. It is possible to count the number of lakes and sluices as well as their superficial area using a channel 7 photographic enlargement. The great concentration of water bodies along the Jacui River determines the large rice crops. Data concerning regions around Teresina City, Presidente Prudente, Piracicaba City, Dourados, and Tres Marias Dam revealed several characteristics concerning the soil and water resources. Two basic maps were made of the natural vegetation distribution over central eastern Brazil from data ERTS-1 data. One map shows the drainage system, the road system, and cities; while the second shows the natural vegetation. It was possible to identify old reforestation, new reforestation, natural forest in flat lands, and natural forest in rolling lands from the ERTS images. Different pasture plant species could be identified by multispectral remote sensing. Data obtained along different wavelength bands provide essential data for the range manager to evaluate his range and to establish a suitable policy. Hydrographic mapping was done using the ERTS images.

Demendonca, F.↗

Potential applications of advanced aircraft in developing countries

Air transportation concepts for movement of cargo in developing countries are reviewed using aicraft which may appear in the future. For certain industrial applications, including mining and forestry, the relative costs of doing the job using different types of aircraft are compared with surface transportation systems. Two developing countries, Brazil and Indonesia, were taken as examples to determine what impact they might have on the aircraft markets of the future. Economic and demographic data on developing countries in general, and Brazil and Indonesia in particular, are reviewed. The concept of an industrial city in a remote area developed around an airport is discussed. It is noted that developing areas generally lack extensive surface transportation systems and that an air transportation system can be implemented in a relatively short time. A developing nation interested in rapid expansion may thus find the role of air cargo far more important than has been true in developed nations. Technological developments which may dramatically increase the performance of agricultural aircraft are also reviewed.

Maddalon, D. V.↗

Crustal deformation at very long baseline interferometry sites due to seasonal air-mass and ground water variations

The seasonal deformation normal to the Earth's surface was calculated at stations involved or interested in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) geodesy and at hypothetical sites in Australia and Brazil using global atmospheric pressure data, values for groundwater storage, and load Love numbers deduced from current Earth models. It was found that the annual range of deformation approached the centimeter level measuring potential of the VLBI technqiue at Greenbank, Haystack, and the Brazil site.

Stolz, A.↗

A review of the Southern Oscillation - Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.

Kousky, V. E.↗

Comparing SMMR and AVHRR data for drought monitoring

Coincident Scanning Microwave Multi-channel Radiometer 37 GHz and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer normalized difference vegetation index satellite data have been compared from drought-affected regions of sub-Saharan Africa and northeastern Brazil for the time period of 1980-1985. Although the two satellite data types can be highly correlated, differences between them were found for the Sahel zone in 1985 and for northeastern Brazil from 1984-1985. These findings suggest that scattering or surface roughness contributions may be greater than previously assumed for the 37 GHz microwave data.

Tucker, Compton J.↗

Ecosystem approach to a global nitrous oxide budget

An approach using relationships among soil fertility, nitrogen cycling, and nitrous oxide production is presented in order to estimate nitrous oxide flux from humid tropical forests. The effects of human disturbance are also investigated. It is noted that recent estimates suggest that 6-10 million ha. of tropical forest are cleared permanently each year. The results of measurements of nitrous oxide flux from cleared and burned sites in Costa Rica and Brazil, in conjunction with satellite-based classifications of ecosystem types, are used to calculate average hourly fluxes for a given region. In the NASA intensive site near Manaus, Brazil, it was found that although pasture areas cover only 11 percent of the region they account for 40 percent of the nitrous oxide flux. This analysis of the fluxes of trace gases through consideration of the gradients of factors that control both fluxes and ecosystem properties and processes will prove useful for extrapolating fluxes and for calculating budgets of nitrous oxide, methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, and carbon dioxide.

Matson, P. A.↗

Regional rainfall climatologies derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data

Climatologies of convective precipitation were derived from passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager using a scattering-based algorithm of Adler et al. Data were aggregated over periods of 3-5 months using data from 4 to 5 years. Data were also stratified by satellite overpass times (primarily 06 00 and 18 00 local time). Four regions (Mexico, Amazonia, western Africa, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (TOGA COARE area) were chosen for their meteorological interest and relative paucity of conventional observations. The strong diurnal variation over Mexico and the southern United States was the most striking aspect of the climatologies. Pronounced morning maxima occured offshore, often in concativities in the coastline, the result of the increased convergence caused by the coastline shape. The major feature of the evening rain field was a linear-shaped maximum along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Topography exerted a strong control on the rainfall in other areas, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras border and in Guatemala, where maxima in excess of 700 mm/month were located adjacent to local maxima in terrain. The correlation between the estimates and monthly gage data over the southern United States was low (0.45), due mainly to poor temporal sampling in any month and an inadequate sampling of the diurnal cycle. Over the Amazon Basin the differences in morning versus evening rainfall were complex, with an alternating series of morning/evening maxima aligned southwest to northeast from the Andes to the northeast Brazilian coast. A real extent of rainfall in Amazonia was slightly higher in the evening, but a maximum in morning precipitation was found on the Amazon River just east of Manaus. Precipitation over the water in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of Brazil was more pronounced in the morning, and a pronounced land-/sea-breeze circulation was found along the northeast coast of Brazil. Inter-comparison of four years revealed 1992 to be the driest over Amazonia, with about a 23% decrease in mean rate compared to the 4-year mean estimated rain rate.

Negri, Andrew J.↗