Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Background Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Epithermal Neutron Observations and Lunar South Pole Targeting for LCROSS Impact Planning using the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), Lunar Exploring Neutron Detector (LEND)

LCROSS impact targeting and planning efforts included quantifying South Polar epithermal neutron flux depressions in early LEND mapped results to maximize the expected plume Hydrogen (H) yield. Epithermal neutron surface fluxes are a key geochemical indicator of surface Hydrogen (H) concentration inferred to be elevated in polar permanent shadow regions (PSR). LCROSS impact target regions were delineated as (PSR) using illumination modeling of polar topography. To quantify targets potential yield for LCROSS, LEND epithermal neutron flux observations were integrated over LCROSS targets of interest and compared to background observations. Discussion will define methods review impact prior estimates and contrast post impact results.

McClanahan, T. P.↗

The X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) for Athena

Athena is designed to implement the Hot and Energetic Universe science theme selected by the European Space Agency for the second large mission of its Cosmic Vision program. The Athena science payload consists of a large aperture high angular resolution X-ray optics (2 m2 at 1 keV) and twelve meters away, two interchangeable focal plane instruments: the X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) and the Wide Field Imager. The X-IFU is a cryogenic X-ray spectrometer, based on a large array of Transition Edge Sensors (TES), oering 2.5 eV spectral resolution, with approximately 5" pixels, over a field of view of 5' in diameter. In this paper, we present the X-IFU detector and readout electronics principles, some elements of the current design for the focal plane assembly and the cooling chain. We describe the current performance estimates, in terms of spectral resolution, effective area, particle background rejection and count rate capability. Finally, we emphasize on the technology developments necessary to meet the demanding requirements of the X-IFU, both for the sensor, readout electronics and cooling chain.

X-ray↗

True Emission Factors for Forest Fires and the Role of Non-Fire NOx

True Emission Factors for Forest Fires and the Role of Non-Fire NOx Robert B. Chatfield and Meinrat Andreae The standard way to estimate biomass burning emissions factors from airborne, surface, or laboratory data is to relate the emitted pollutant concentration to the carbon burned, C(sub tot), and liberated to the air, mostly CO2. We approximate total emitted carbon C(sub tot) ~ (CO2 + CO). Emission ratios that are based on CO, describing burning effects, delta-parameter delta-CO, are often used to quantify fire emissions. These are not as useful as emission factors, for they often complicate analyses, since delta-CO delta-CO2 may vary by unto tenfold, and can have bias artifacts of similar magnitude. We present a methodology that estimates both emission factors and a reasonable description of background C(sub tot). High O3 values require a history of the balanced interaction of two pollutant types, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and a radical source, VOCs. However, high VOC NOx ratios seen in many plumes, especially from smoldering-dominated fires, make substantial O3 formation less likely. One particularly intense fire we analyzed, the notorious Rim Fire of 2013, near Yosemite, California. It produced notable quantities of free NOx and (both gas- and particle-phase) Cl species. Consequently, we also outline a quantitative way to assess the effects of anthropogenic or lightning NOx. We provide the example of California burning emissions using measurements of HCHO, NO, and the photolysis rate j(sub HCHO).

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Introduction to the IMPACT Probabilistic Risk and Tradespace Analysis Tool for Medical System Design

Background: Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is a method for estimating risk in complex engineered systems that, at a basic level, focuses on what can go wrong and the likelihood and consequences of those occurrences. NASA has used PRA as an integral component of medical system risk estimation and design for spaceflight. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool to meet these goals for exploration missions. Overview: IMPACT performs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. These simulations are based on 120 possible medical conditions (the IMPACT Condition List) selected in a consensus-based process because they are of highest likelihood and/or consequence for exploration spaceflight. The conditions are then tied to clinical capabilities which can be used for management (e.g., inserting an IV) and then to over 600 specific resources needed to deliver a capability (e.g., an angiocath or an ultrasound). Different mission profiles can be simulated with user-specified inputs such as mission duration, destination, number of crew and pre-existing medical conditions, and EVA frequency. While the IMPACT evidence base is designed for exploration environments, these user inputs allow the tool to be used across a broad range of missions. IMPACT’s primary outcome metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL, a measure of in-flight mortality due to medical conditions), need for evacuation (RTDC, return to definitive care), and crew disability (TTL, task time lost based on how medical conditions impact the ability to perform over 1000 specific exploration mission crew tasks). In addition to modeling medical risk, IMPACT also accepts user-specified constraints, such as limitations of mass or volume, and will output a recommended clinical capability set and specific medical resources that meet the mission constraints. Discussion: This abstract will provide an introduction to IMPACT and describe the nature of the underlying medical evidence. It will also detail potential use cases for how this tool can be utilized by NASA or commercial spaceflight providers.

Ben Easter↗

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗

Impact of Aircraft Emissions on NO(x) in the Lowermost Stratosphere at Northern Midlatitudes

Airborne measurements of NO(x) total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)), O3 and condensation nuclei (CN) were made within air traffic corridors over the U.S. and North Atlantic regions (35-60 deg N) in the fall of 1997. NO(x) and NO(y) data obtained in the lowermost stratosphere (LS) were examined using the calculated increase in NO(y) ((delta)NO(y)) along five-day back trajectories as a parameter to identify possible effects of aircraft on reactive nitrogen. It is very likely that aircraft emissions had a significant impact on the NO(x) levels in the LS inasmuch as the NO(s), mixing ratios at 8.5-12 km were significantly correlated with the independent parameters of aircraft emissions, i.e., (delta)NO(y) levels and CN values. In order to estimate quantitatively the impact of aircraft emissions on NO(x), and CN, the background levels of CN and NO(x) at O3 = 100-200 ppbv were derived from the correlations of these quantities with (delta)NO(y)). On average, the aircraft emissions are estimated to have increased the NO(x) and CN values by 130 pptv and 400 STP,cc, respectively, which corresponds to 70 -/+ 30 % and 30 -/+ 20 % of the observed median values.

Kondo, Y.↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

Rocket observation of soft energetic particles at the magnetic equator

Results from a rocket-borne ion mass spectrometer flown near the magnetic equator at 0108 LMT, March 10, 1970, exhibit an unusual background current above 200 km. This current is observed to increase 3.5 orders of magnitude between 200 and 260 km before maximizing to a fixed value from 260 km to the 295 km apogee of the flight. Properties of the background combined with laboratory measurements have permitted probable identification of the background source as 2-20 keV electrons or protons. Maximum electron fluxes have been estimated to be of the order 10 to the 10th power particles/sq cm-sec-ster in accord with ISIS-1 satellite measurements at higher altitudes. The background was not observed on an earlier flight at 1938 LMT, suggesting the particles to be trapped in a blet which drifted below 300 km between the two flights. The low altitude penetration of these fluxes may have been related to the great magnetic storm of March 8. Simultaneous measurements of the thermal ion distribution are compared with these results and qualitatively suggest that the soft energetic particles are responsible for an observed O2(+) and NO(+) enhancement.

Goldberg, R. A.↗

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(burn) = delta C(tot) added to the fire plume, where C(tot) approximately equals (CO2 = CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of C(tot) (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta, epsilon lambda tau alpha-x(sub I)/C(sub burn))I,j. MERET and "consensus" require more than emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (b scant, b abs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics

ozone↗

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate Which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(sub burn) = delta C(sub tot) added to the fire plume, where C(sub tot) approximately equals (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta epsilon lambda tau alpha−x(sub i)/(C(sub burn))i,j., MERET and "consensus" require more than two emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

fires↗

Modeling Kepler Transit Light Curves as False Positives: Rejection of Blend Scenarios for Kepler-9, and Validation of Kepler-9 d, a Super-Earth-Size Planet in a Multiple System

Light curves from the Kepler Mission contain valuable information on the nature of the phenomena producing the transit-like signals. To assist in exploring the possibility that they are due to an astrophysical false positive we describe a procedure (BLENDER) to model the photometry in terms of a blend rather than a planet orbiting a star. A blend may consist of a background or foreground eclipsing binary (or star-planet pair) whose eclipses are attenuated by the light of the candidate and possibly other stars within the photometric aperture. We apply BLENDER to the case of Kepler-9 (KIC 3323887), a target harboring two previously confirmed Saturn-size planets (Kepler-9 b and Kepler-9 c) showing transit timing variations, and an additional shallower signal with a 1.59 day period suggesting the presence of a super-Earth-size planet. Using BLENDER together with constraints from other follow-up observations we are able to rule out all blends for the two deeper signals and provide independent validation of their planetary nature. For the shallower signal, we rule out a large fraction of the false positives that might mimic the transits. The false alarm rate for remaining blends depends in part (and inversely) on the unknown frequency of small-size planets. Based on several realistic estimates of this frequency, we conclude with very high confidence that this small signal is due to a super-Earth-size planet (Kepler-9 d) in a multiple system, rather than a false positive. The radius is determined to be 1.64(exp)(sub-14),R, and current spectroscopic observations are as yet insufficient to establish its mass.

PLANETARY SYSTEMS↗

A complete sample of quasars at B = 19.80

A quasar candidate spectroscopic UV-excess survey with B less than 19.80 has yielded 35 quasars in the 1.75 sq deg region studied. The X-ray data for the 35 quasars are used to show that quasars with B lower than 19.80 and z lower than 2.2 constitute 24 + 10, -8 percent of the observed X-ray background at 2 keV. This sample is combined with one containing 22 quasars with B values lower than 18.25, and it is noted that fits of evolution and luminosity functions are substantially similar to previous results, although the confidence limits for the model parameters are reduced by a factor of 2. Pure luminosity evolution models are found to produce very good fits to the observed N(less than B) data, and are used to estimate the overall contribution of quasars to the X-ray background.

Marshall, H. L.↗

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗

A New Determination of the Extragalactic Diffuse X-Ray Background from EGRET Data

We use the GALPROP model for cosmic-ray propagation to obtain a new estimate of the Galactic component of gamma rays, and show that away from the Galactic plane it gives an accurate prediction of the observed EGRET intensities in the energy range 30 MeV - 50 GeV. On this basis we re-evaluate the extragalactic gamma-ray background. We find that for some energies previous work underestimated the Galactic contribution at high latitudes and hence overestimated the background. Our new background spectrum shows a positive curvature similar to that expected for models of the extragalactic emission based on the blazar population.

Strong, Andrew W.↗

Gamma-ray monitoring of AGN and galactic black hole candidates by the Gamma-Ray Observatory

The Burst and Transient Spectroscopy Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory has a powerful capability to provide nearly uninterrupted monitoring in the 25 keV-10 MeV range of both AGN and Galactic black hole candidates such as Cygnus X-1, using the occultation of cosmic sources by the Earth. Progress in background modeling indicates that the data accept region, or fit window tau, around the occultation step can be substantially increased over that conservatively assumed in earlier estimates of BATSE's Earth occultation sensitivity. We show samples of large-tau fits to background and source edges. As a result we expect to be able to perform long-term monitoring of Cygnus X-1 and many of the brighter AGN for the duration of the CGRO mission.

Wheaton, Wm. A.↗

Going to the Bottom of the Explosion that Formed Cas A

The purpose of this INTEGRAL AO 1 proposal was to observe the gamma-ray lines at 1157 keV, as well as 68 keV and 78 keV of the (44)Ti decay chain from the youngest known galactic supernova remnant Cas A. The radioactive decay of (44)Ti in Cas A was first detected by COMPTEL in the 1157 keV line and later confirmed in the lower energy lines using BeppoSAX data. Despite the second confirming measurement, the flux value still has a considerable error, due to a low signal over background ratio and the poor definition of the continuum background in the range of 70 - 100 keV above the line energies. In addition to improving this flux measurement, INTEGRAL has the unique capability, in principle, to measure the line width of the emission. This type of measurement can further constrain supernova explosion models. Unfortunately, the INTEGRAL instrumental background, especially in the SPI spectrometer, turned out to be significantly higher than estimated at the time of proposal submission before launch. This, and to a smaller extent the reduced effective exposure time of about 1.5 Ms compared to requested 2.5 Ms, has precluded us from reaching the sensitivity necessary for this measurement. Studies of the background variability with the goal of improving background modeling are ongoing, and additional 2.5 Ms observing time has just been approved for the next observing cycle.

Oberlack, Uwe↗

Development of flat conductor cable for commercial and residential wiring

The overall spectrum of the space technology spin-off development project: development of Flat Conductor Cable (FCC) for commercial and residential wiring, is presented. A discussion of the background, program milestones, industry participants, system outgrowth, hardware availability, cost estimates, and overall status of the program is presented for the 1970-to-present time period.

Carden, J. R.↗