Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Hyperspectral Biofilm Classification Analysis for Carrying Capacity of Migratory Birds in the South Bay Salt Ponds

Tidal marshes are highly productive ecosystems that support migratory birds as roosting and over-wintering habitats on the Pacific Flyway. Microphytobenthos, or more commonly 'biofilms' contribute significantly to the primary productivity of wetland ecosystems, and provide a substantial food source for macroinvertebrates and avian communities. In this study, biofilms were characterized based on taxonomic classification, density differences, and spectral signatures. These techniques were then applied to remotely sensed images to map biofilm densities and distributions in the South Bay Salt Ponds and predict the carrying capacity of these newly restored ponds for migratory birds. The GER-1500 spectroradiometer was used to obtain in situ spectral signatures for each density-class of biofilm. The spectral variation and taxonomic classification between high, medium, and low density biofilm cover types was mapped using in-situ spectral measurements and classification of EO-1 Hyperion and Landsat TM 5 images. Biofilm samples were also collected in the field to perform laboratory analyses including chlorophyll-a, taxonomic classification, and energy content. Comparison of the spectral signatures between the three density groups shows distinct variations useful for classification. Also, analysis of chlorophyll-a concentrations show statistically significant differences between each density group, using the Tukey-Kramer test at an alpha level of 0.05. The potential carrying capacity in South Bay Salt Ponds is estimated to be 250,000 birds.

Hsu, Wei-Chen↗

Validation of MODIS FLH and In Situ Chlorophyll a from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a (chla) is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chl-a inaccurate. Measurement of suninduced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum may, provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms or compared their accuracy against bluegreen ratio algorithms . In an unprecedented analysis using a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data set from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer against a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout this large optically complex estuarine system. . Overall, the results show a 106% increase in the validity of chla concentration estimation using FLH over the standard chla estimate from the blue-green OC3M algorithm. Additionally, a systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the FLH product responds to varying conditions in the estuary and correlations are conducted to see how the relationships between satellite FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a change with depth, distance from shore, from structures like bridges, and nutrient concentrations and turbidity. Such analysis illustrates that the correlations between FLH and in situ chla measurements increases with increasing distance between monitoring sites and structures like bridges and shore. Due probably to confounding factors, expected improvement in the FLH- chla relationship was not clearly noted when increasing depth and distance from shore alone (not including bridges). Correlations between turbidity and nutrient concentrations are discussed further and principle component analyses are employed to address the relationships between the multivariate data sets. A thorough understanding of how satellite FLH algorithms relate to in situ water quality parameters will enhance our understanding of how MODIS s global FLH algorithm can be used empirically to monitor coastal waters worldwide.

Fischer, Andrew↗

A History of Vegetation, Sediment and Nutrient Dynamics at Tivoli North Bay, Hudson Estuary, New York

We conduct a stratigraphic paleoecological investigation at a Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve (HRNERR) site, Tivoli Bays, spanning the past 1100 years. Marsh sediment cores were analyzed for ecosystem changes using multiple proxies, including pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, sediment bulk chemistry, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The results reveal climatic shifts such as the warm and dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) followed by the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA), along with significant anthropogenic influence on the watershed ecosystem. A five-fold expansion of invasive species, including Typha angustifolia and Phragmites australis, is documented along with marked changes in sediment composition and nutrient input. During the last century, a ten-fold sedimentation rate increase due to land-use changes is observed. The large magnitude of shifts in vegetation, sedimentation, and nutrients during the last few centuries suggest that human activities have made the greatest impact to the marshes of the Hudson Estuary during the last millennium. Climate variability and ecosystem changes similar to those observed at other marshes in northeastern and mid-Atlantic estuaries, attest to the widespread regional signature recorded at Tivoli Bays.

Sritrairat, Sanpisa↗

Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

Air Pollution over North-West Bay of Bengal in the Early Post-Monsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). This reanalysis is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model radiatively coupled with GOCART aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from the MODIS sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. Our main finding is that, in October, in the absence of aerosol sources in north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB), MERRAero showed increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin. The Ganges basin is characterized by significant population growth accompanied by developing industry, agriculture, and increasing transportation: this has resulted in declining air quality. MERRAero data for the period 2002-2009 was used to study AOT trends over north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the early post-monsoon season. This season is characterized by aerosol transport from the Ganges basin to north-west BoB by prevailing winds; and still significant rainfall of over 150 mmmonth. Different aerosol components showed strong increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB. The following factors contributed to the increasing AOT trend over the area in question in October: an increasing number of days when prevailing winds blew from land to sea, resulting in a drier environment and an increase in air pollution over north-west BoB; wind convergence was observed over north-west BoB causing the accumulation of aerosol particles over that region, when prevailing winds blew from land to sea. MERRAero aerosol reanalysis can be used on a global scale.

AOT↗

Diagenetic Features in Yellowknife Bay, Gale Crater, Mars: Implications for Substrate Rheology and Potential Gas Release

Multiple diagenetic features have been observed in clay­-bearing mudstone exposed within Yellowknife Bay, Gale Crater, Mars. These features occurred during at least two separate episodes: an early generation of spheroidal concretions that co-­occur with a dense networks of mineralized fractures, and a later generation of mineralized veins. Concretions consist of mm-sized spheroids (0.4 to 8.0 mm, mean diameter of 1.2 mm) that are distinctly more resistant than the encompassing mudstone. Dissected spheroids suggest an origin via compaction and incipient lithification of the substrate at the perimeter of syndepositional void space. Concretions are generally patchy in their distribution within clay-‐bearing mudstone, but in places can be the dominant fabric element. Locally dense networks of mineralized fractures occur in regions of low concretion abundance. These consist of short (< 50 cm), curvilinear to planar mineralized voids that occur across a range of orientations from vertical to subhorizontal. Fractures are filled by multi-phase cement consisting of two isopachous, erosionally resistant outer bands, and a central less resistant fill. Physical relationships suggests that original fractures may have formed as both interconnected voids and as discrete cross--cutting features. Co--occurrence of early diagenetic concretions and fracture networks suggests a common origin via gas release within a subaqueous, shallow substrate. We suggest that gas release within weakly cohesive subsurface sediments resulted in substrate dewatering and an increase in the cohesive strength of the substrate. Local differences in substrate strength and rate of gas production would have result in formation of either discrete voids or fracture networks. A second generation of mineralized veins is characterized by a regionally low spatial density, predominantly vertical or horizontal orientations, and a single phase of Ca-‐sulfate mineral fill. These veins cross-cut the early diagenetic elements and intersect a greater thickness of stratigraphy within Yellowknife Bay, suggesting a later-‐diagenetic origin via hydraulic fracturing.

Kah, L. C.↗

The Accidental Tide Gauge: A GPS Reflection Case Study from Kachemak Bay, Alaska

For the last decade, it has been known that reflected GPS signals observed with specialized instruments could be used to measure sea level. In this letter, data from an existing geodeticquality GPS site near Kachemak Bay, Alaska, are analyzed for a one-year time period. Daily sea-level variations are more than 7 m. Tidal coefficients have been estimated and compared with coefficients estimated from records from a traditional tide gauge at Seldovia Harbor, approximately 30 km away. The GPS and Seldovia estimates of M(sub 2) and S(sub 2) coefficients agree to better than 2%; much of this residual can be attributed to true differences in the tide over 30 km as it propagates up Kachemak Bay. For daily mean sea levels the agreement is 2.3 cm. Because a standard geodetic GPS receiver/antenna is used, this GPS instrument can measure long-term sea-level changes in a stable terrestrial reference frame.

GPS reflections↗

Fabrication of Lower Section and Upper Forward Bulkhead Panels of the Multi-Bay Box and Panel Preparation

NASA and the Boeing Co. have been working together under the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project to develop stitched unitized structure for reduced weight, reduced fuel burn and reduced pollutants in the next generation of commercial aircraft. The structural concept being evaluated is PRSEUS (Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure). In the PRSEUS concept, dry carbon fabric, pultruded carbon rods, and foam are stitched together into large preforms. Then these preforms are infused with an epoxy resin into large panels in an out-of-autoclave process. These panels have stiffeners in the length-wise and width-wise directions but contain no fasteners because all stiffeners are stitched to the panel skin. This document contains a description of the fabrication of panels for use in the 30-foot-long Multi-Bay Box test article to be evaluated at NASA LaRC. The document also describes a panel which explores new PRSEUS concepts for applications beyond the Multi-Bay Box.

Velicki, Alexander↗

On Measurements of the Tide at Churchill, Hudson Bay

Since the late 1990s the semi-diurnal tide at Churchill, on the western shore of Hudson Bay, has been decreasing in amplitude, with M(sub 2) amplitudes falling from approximately 154 cm in 1998 to 146 cm in 2012 and 142 cm in 2014. There has been a corresponding small increase in phase lag. Mean low water, decreasing throughout most of the twentieth century, has levelled off. Although the tidal changes could reflect merely a malfunctioning tide gauge, the fact that there are no other measurements in the region and the possibility that the tide is revealing important environmental changes calls for serious investigation. Satellite altimeter measurements of the tide in Hudson Bay are complicated by the seasonal ice cover; at most locations less than 40% of satellite passes return valid ocean heights and even those can be impacted by errors from sea ice. Because the combined TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2 time series is more than 23 years long, it is now possible to obtain sufficient data at crossover locations near Churchill to search for tidal changes. The satellites sense no changes in M(sub 2) that are comparable to the changes seen at the Churchill gauge. The changes appear to be localized to the harbour, or to the Churchill River, or to the gauge itself.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Bloom Modeling and Prediction of the Harmful Algae Alexandrium in Bellingham Bay, WA

Bellingham, Washington is located near the American-Canadian border in the northwestern part of Washington state, and is bordered on its west side by the Lummi reservation. Between Lummi and Bellingham lies Bellingham bay, which has a history of harmful algae related closures dating back to 1978. The subject of this work is a genus of dinoflagellates: Alexandrium, within which many species have the capacity to produce a suite of toxins known as saxitoxin. These toxins bioaccumulate in bivalves, which in turn cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in marine consumers (mammals, birds, and fish), including humans. Symptoms in humans can range from tingling and numbness to difficulty or inability to breathe, resulting in death. Because of the longstanding history of shellfish gathering among Salish tribes and the fact that Washington is the leading U.S. producer of farmed bivalves, harmful algae blooms impact both native and non-native peoples living in the Salish Sea area negatively. The objective of this work is to identify factors which influence Alexandrium blooms in Bellingham Bay, as well as predict Alexandrium blooms in the future. The method of doing so involves two processes: an initial statistical modeling phase to find in situ and remote sensing observations correlated to bloom density (including, but not limited to: water temperature, chlorophyll-a, salinity, color dissolved organic matter, and discharge rate of local rivers), followed by use of that data as a training set for a recursive neural network. This predictive capacity may inform future closures, help ensure the safety of shellfish consumers, and act as a baseline for future modeling efforts in the region.

Harmful↗

2020 Wildfire Plumes Observed by Satellite and Ground Sensors in the San Francesco Bay Area

The main purpose of this research is to study the spreading of the 2020 wildfire plumes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Last year’s fire plumes have caused severe impact on regional air quality and public health over large part of the west coast. We studied fire plumes with two datasets: aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from MODIS sensor onboard two NASA satellites (Terra and Aqua), and surface PM2.5 measurements from US EPA. Satellite can monitor fire plumes from a top-down view, including active fire location, emission amount, spreading of the fire plume in both horizontal and vertical directions. EPA records air quality using the ground network of in-situ sensors. In general the two points of view are consistent with each other. But in the peak of the 2020 fire season, we found an episode where the AOD and PM2.5 are out-of-phase for two days. We explored the possible mechanism for this shift with available meteorological measurements, including both ground measurements and sounding data. By tracking the evolution of the sounding data, we concluded a heated near surface inversion layer might shield the region from aloft fire plumes for two days before they touch down and severely downgraded the air quality over the whole Bay area.

Hazem Mahmoud↗

2020 Wildfire Plumes Observed by Satellite and Ground Sensors at San Francisco Bay

The main purpose of this research is to study the spreading of the 2020 wildfire plumes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Last year’s fire plumes have caused severe impact on regional air quality and public health over large part of the west coast. We studied fire plumes with two datasets: aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from MODIS sensor onboard two NASA satellites (Terra and Aqua), and surface PM2.5 measurements from US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Satellite can monitor fire plumes from a top-down view, including active fire location, emission amount, spreading of the fire plume in both horizontal and vertical directions. EPA records air quality using the ground network of in-situ sensors. In general, the two points of view are consistent with each other. But in the peak of the 2020 fire season, we found an episode where the AOD and PM2.5 are out-of-phase for two days, in addition data from NASA satellite AERONET was use to corroborate AOD information for the episode, yielding similar results. Thereafter, we explored the possible mechanism for this shift with available meteorological measurements, including both ground measurements and sounding data. By tracking the evolution of the sounding data, we concluded a heated near surface inversion layer might shield the region from aloft fire plumes for two days before they touch down and severely downgraded the air quality over the whole Bay area.

Hazem Mahmoud↗

Numerical Simulations of Gas Production from Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Prudhoe Bay Unit 7-11-12 Pad on Alaska North Slope

In December 2018, a partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL), the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) successfully drilled and logged the Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well (STW) in the greater Prudhoe Bay oil field on Alaska North Slope. The logging-while-drilling (LWD) data confirmed the presence of gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs within two sand reservoirs (Unit B and Unit D) that are suitable targets for future testing. The interpreted log data and core sample measurements were used to create reservoir models for the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) Kuparuk 7-11-12 Site. The models combine both gas hydrate-bearing sections in Unit B and Unit D together with the intermediate Unit C and over- and underburden sands and shales. The vertical heterogeneity in porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and permeability distributions for reservoir and non-reservoir units was implemented using fine mesh discretization. The depressurization method was applied to Unit B to induce gas hydrate destabilization at constant bottom hole pressure (BHP) values. The results of the numerical simulations support the development of production scenarios, well design, surface facilities, and field test procedures with the main goal to perform efficient and safe scientific production testing. Project results contribute to the knowledge base of permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations as a future energy source.

Myshakin, Evgeniy↗

Microbial Taxa Distribution Data From 16S rRNA Analysis Of Desalination Operations At Carlsbad, CA And Tampa Bay, FL

This data set list the distribution of microbial taxa from three sets of sampling campaigns from unit operations in two large desalination facilities in the US conducted between March and May 2021. The desalination plants include the Claude "Bud" Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant in Carlsbad, California and the Seater Desalination facility in Tampa Bay, Florida.

16s rRNA gene analysis↗

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program’s (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States’ largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework’s current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warm‐Season Afternoon Precipitation Peak in the Central Bay of Bengal: Process‐Oriented Diagnostics

Abstract Past studies have indicated that precipitation over tropical open oceans generally peaks in the early morning. However, an intriguing departure from this pattern is observed in the central Bay of Bengal (CBoB), where rainfall exhibits a distinct afternoon peak during the South Asian summer monsoon season. By using a novel satellite‐based cloud classification and tracking data set, we found that more than 75% of the afternoon rainfall (15–17 LST) over the CBoB comes from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most of the MCSs contributing to the CBoB afternoon rainfall peak originate either locally over the CBoB or near the west and east coasts of the BoB, in contrast to the northern BoB as highlighted in previous studies. Analyses show that MCSs initiated near coastlines are primarily influenced by land‐sea breezes, whereas MCSs initiated over the BoB open ocean during early morning are strongly associated with diurnal radiative forcings. In addition, there are clear diurnal propagating MCS initiation signals from the west and north coastlines of the BoB to the CBoB, which are related to diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastlines. The thermodynamic conditions conducive to MCS initiation over different sub‐regions of the BoB are also investigated. No systematic differences found in environmental convective available potential energy between days with and without MCS initiation. However, over most sub‐regions, days with MCS initiation generally have higher total column water vapor than days without MCS initiation. This difference suggests that the lower‐free‐tropospheric moisture content plays an important role in MCS initiation over the BoB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗