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At least 235 records · Page 13

Exploring the role of judgement and shared situation awareness when working with AI recommender systems

Abstract AI-advised Decision Making is a form of human-autonomy teaming in which an AI recommender system suggests a solution to a human operator, who is responsible for the final decision. This work seeks to examine the importance of judgement and shared situation awareness between humans and automated agents when interacting together in the form of a recommender systems. We propose manipulating both human judgement and shared situation awareness by providing the human decision maker with relevant information that the automated agent (AI), in the form of a recommender system, uses to generate possible courses of action. This paper presents the results of a two-phase between-subjects study in which participants and a recommender system jointly make a high-stakes decision. We varied the amount of relevant information the participant had, the assessment technique of the proposed solution, and the reliability of the recommender system. Findings indicate that this technique of supporting the human’s judgement and establishing a shared situation awareness is effective in (1) boosting the human decision maker’s situation awareness and task performance, (2) calibrating their trust in AI teammates, and (3) reducing overreliance on an AI partner. Additionally, participants were able to pinpoint the limitations and boundaries of the AI partner’s capabilities. They were able to discern situations where the AI’s recommendations could be trusted versus instances when they should not rely on the AI’s advice. This work proposes and validates a way to provide model-agnostic transparency into recommender systems that can support the human decision maker and lead to improved team performance.

Srivastava, Divya↗

Brain Connectivity Workshop Series Report

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) BRAIN Initiative aims to accelerate development and application of technologies that show how individual brain cells in complex neural circuits interact at the speed of thought and action. Complete wiring diagrams of the mammalian brain will revolutionize the capabilities of researchers to formulate and test models of how activity within brain circuits drives coordinated function and behavior. A top priority for the BRAIN Initiative, motivated by the strategic guidance of the BRAIN 2.0 Working Group report, is to muster the resources and foster the collaborations needed to generate these wiring diagrams at the level of long-range projections (“projectomes”) and synapses (“connectomes”) in whole mammalian brains, including those from rodents, humans, and other large-brained mammals. Achieving the scale and resolution necessary to characterize and use these projectomes and connectomes will not only push the boundaries of current imaging and computational capabilities to generate faster, cheaper, and more scalable technologies, but also drive broad innovation in data science, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical Theory of the Ideal MHD Geodynamo

A statistical theory of geodynamo action is developed, using a mathematical model of the geodynamo as a rotating outer core containing an ideal (i.e., no dissipation), incompressible, turbulent, convecting magnetofluid. On the concentric inner and outer spherical bounding surfaces the normal components of the velocity, magnetic field, vorticity and electric current are zero, as is the temperature fluctuation. This allows the use of a set of Galerkin expansion functions that are common to both velocity and magnetic field, as well as vorticity, current and the temperature fluctuation. The resulting dynamical system, based on the Boussinesq form of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, represents MHD turbulence in a spherical domain. These basic equations (minus the temperature equation) and boundary conditions have been used previously in numerical simulations of forced, decaying MHD turbulence inside a sphere [1,2]. Here, the ideal case is studied through statistical analysis and leads to a prediction that an ideal coherent structure will be found in the form of a large-scale quasistationary magnetic field that results from broken ergodicity, an effect that has been previously studied both analytically and numerically for homogeneous MHD turbulence [3,4]. The axial dipole component becomes prominent when there is a relatively large magnetic helicity (proportional to the global correlation of magnetic vector potential and magnetic field) and a stationary, nonzero cross helicity (proportional to the global correlation of velocity and magnetic field). The expected angle of the dipole moment vector with respect to the rotation axis is found to decrease to a minimum as the average cross helicity increases for a fixed value of magnetic helicity and then to increase again when average cross helicity approaches its maximum possible value. Only a relatively small value of cross helicity is needed to produce a dipole moment vector that is aligned at approx.10deg with the rotation axis.

Shebalin, J. V.↗

Growth of organized flow coherent motions within a single-stream shear layer: 4D-PTV measurements

Abstract This study investigates the evolution of a single-stream shear layer (SSSL) originating from a wall boundary layer past a backward-facing step. Utilizing a time-resolved 3D-Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) technique, we track the trajectories of fluorescent particles to gain insight into the flow characteristics of the SSSL. A compact water tunnel facility ( $$\textrm{Re}_\tau =1\,240$$ Re τ = 1 240 ) is fabricated to obtain an SSSL with a perpendicular slow entrainment stream past the separation edge. A hybrid interpolation approach that combines ensemble binning and Gaussian weighting is implemented to derive minimally filtered mean and instantaneous lower- and higher-order flow field parameters. Spanwise-dominant coherent motion accompanied by finer flow scales is observed to grow due to flow entrainment through “nibbling” actions of small-scale vortices, “engulfing” by large-scale vortices, and vortex pairing events. Furthermore, the non-zero-speed stream edge grows relatively faster than the zero-speed stream edge, showing a strong asymmetry in mixing composition across a mixing layer. The SSSL reaches self-similarity at a streamwise distance of $$\approx 55\,\theta _{0}$$ ≈ 55 θ 0 , where $$\theta _0$$ θ 0 is the initial momentum thickness from the separation edge, i.e., considerably shorter than reported in previous studies. A literature comparison of growth rate parameters raises intriguing questions regarding a potential inclusive growth scaling unifying the free shear layers. A turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget analysis reveals a negative production region immediately downstream of the separation edge attributed to a large positive streamwise gradient of streamwise velocity. In the self-similar region, the phase-averaged flow mapping demonstrates a larger concentration of turbulence production rate around the outer edges of spanwise vortices, specifically at the intersection of braids and vortices. Furthermore, a spatial separation exists in the regions of peak production and dissipation rates within the vortex core region favoring dissipation. The braids exhibit a larger concentration of turbulence diffusion rates, indicating their function as a conduit for exchanging turbulence between neighboring coherent motions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

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RSRM and ETM03 Internal Flow Simulations and Comparisons

ETM03 (Engineering Test Motor-03) is an extended length RSRM (Reusable Solid Rocket Motor) designed to increase motor performance and create more severe internal environments compared with the standard four-segment RSRM motor configuration. This is achieved primarily through three unique design features. First is the incorporation of an additional RSRM center segment, second is a slight increase in throat diameter, and third is the use of an Extended Aft Exit Cone (EAEC). As a result of these design features, parameters such as web time, action time, head end pressure, web time average pressure, maximum thrust, mass flow rate, centerline Mach number, pressure and thrust integrals have all increased compared with nominal RSRM values. In some cases these increases are substantial. The primary objective of the ETM03 test program is to provide a platform for RSRM component margin testing. Test results will not only provide direct data concerning component performance under more adverse conditions, but serve as a second design data point for developing, validating and enhancing component analytical modeling techniques. To help component designers assess how the changes in motor environment will affect performance, internal flow simulations for both the nominal RSRM and ETM03 motor designs were completed to obtain comparisons of aero-thermal boundary conditions and system loads. Full geometries for both motors were characterized with two-dimensional axi-symmetric models at burn times of 1, 20, 54, 67 and 80-seconds. A sixth set considered burn times of 110 and 117-seconds for RSRM and ETM03, respectively. The simulations were performed using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) commercial code FLUENT (trademark). Of particular interest were any differences between the two motor environments that could lead to a significant increase in system loads, or in internal insulation and/or nozzle component charring and erosion in ETM03 compared with RSRM. Based on these comparative analyses conducted in this study, the objective of ETM03 will be achieved by providing a more adverse operating environment for motor components than the nominal RSRM environment. For example: Higher chamber pressure drop in ETM03 than in RSRM; higher centerline Mach numbers approaching the nozzle in ETM03 than in RSRM; higher heat transfer rates for the internal insulation and nozzle components in ETM03 than in RSRM; and higher levels of droplet impingement and slag accumulation in ETM03 than in the RSRM.

Ahmad, R. A.↗

The Making of a Metric: Co-Producing Decision-Relevant Climate Science

Developing decision-relevant science for adaptation requires the identification of climatic parameters that are both actionable for practitioners as well as tractable for modelers. In many sectors, these decision-relevant climatic metrics and the approaches that enable their identification remain largely unknown. “Co-production” of science with scientists and decision-makers is one potential way to identify these metrics, but there is little research describing specific and successful co-production approaches. This paper examines the negotiations and outcomes from Project Hyperion, wherein scientists and water managers jointly developed decision-relevant climatic metrics for adaptive water management. We identify successful co-production strategies by analyzing the project’s numerous back-and-forth engagements and tracing the evolution of the science during these engagements. We found that effective mediation between scientists and managers needed dedicated “boundary spanners” with significant modeling expertise. Translating practitioners’ information needs into tractable climatic metrics required direct and indirect methods of eliciting knowledge. We identified four indirect methods that were particularly salient for extracting tacitly held knowledge and enabling shared learning: developing a hierarchical framework linking management issues with metrics, starting discussions from the planning challenges, collaboratively exploring the planning relevance of new scientific capabilities, and using analogies of other “good” metrics. The decision-relevant metrics we developed provide insights into advancing adaptation-relevant climate science in the water sector. The co-production strategies we identified can be used to design and implement productive scientist–decision-maker interactions. Overall, the approaches and metrics we developed can help climate science to expand in new and more use-inspired directions.

Planning↗

"Dust Devils": Gardening Agents on the Surface of Mars, and Hidden Hazards to Human Exploration?

Dust devils are familiar sites in the and regions of the world: they can produce quite spectacular displays of dust lofting when the vortices scavenge very loose dust from a dry lake bed or from recently disturbed agricultural fields. If one were to arrive at the center of an arid region, take one photograph, or even a series of photographs over a period of several days, then return the images for laboratory analysis, it would be most likely concluded that the region was inactive from an aeolian perspective. No images of general dust movement were obtained, nor were any dust devils "caught on camera" owing to their ephemeral and unpredictable appearance, and the fact that there was deceptively little residue of their actions. If, however, a camera were to take a 360 degree continuous recording over a period of a year, and the film were then to be shown at high speed over a period a several minutes, the impression might be that of a region ravaged by air vorticity and dust movement. Extrapolate this over geological time, and it is possible to visualize dust devils as prime aeolian agents, rather than insignificant vagaries of nature, On Mars, the thin atmosphere permits the surface of the planet to be heated but it does not itself retain heat with the capacity of the earth's atmosphere. This gives rise to greater thermal instability near the surface of Mars as "warm" air pockets diapiritically inject themselves into higher atmospheric layers. Resulting boundary-layer vorticity on Mars might therefore be expected to produce dust devils in abundance, if only seasonally. The spectacular images of dust devils obtained by Pathfinder within its brief functional period on the planet testify to the probability of highly frequent surface vorticity in light of the above reasoning about observational probability. Notably, the Pathfinder devils appeared to be at least a kilometer in height. There are several consequences for the geology of Mars, and for human exploration, if dust devils are to be expected in reasonable abundance. First, from a geological perspective, the vortices will act as "gardening" agents for the top few centimeters of entrainable material. Over time (hundreds of millions, or billions of years being available), they will cover the surface with scouring paths, and the grain sizes that can be lofted by a vortex probably extends over the whole sand to dust range. The depositional paths are, of course, much larger, so that vortex-induced deposition is more widespread than vortex-induced erosion, and will without doubt, affect the whole region in which the dust devils occur (this might explain why rocks at the Viking site seemed oddly capped with dust in a region apparently subject to general aeolian scouring). On Mars, the lift forces in dust devils might be less than on earth owing to the much thinner atmosphere, but this may be counterbalanced by lower gravity and greater vortex velocities. Certainly, when active, other aeolian phenomena on Mars --sand motion and dust storms, seem no less energetic and no less capable of lofting sediments than equivalent terrestrial aeolian phenomena. Every several years, within the current climatic regime, the surface of Mars is subject to light dust fall from global dust storms. Over time, this should develop a very uniform surface layer, with commensurate uniformity in grain size, mineralogy, albedo, color, and general spectroscopic properties. Dust devils will disturb this situation by continually mixing the surface dust with underlying layers, perhaps composed of silt and sand. This size mixing will also involve compositional mixing. After some years, the thin layer of dust that may be difficult to entrain alone, becomes progressively mixed with coarser materials that could reduce the general aeolian threshold of the soil. Certainly the continual disturbance by vorticity will prevent surface stabilization that may bind or indurate grains (caused by slow cementation or ice welding at grain boundaries). If dust devils continually loft dust to kilometer heights, and the dust is sprayed into many cubic kilometers of atmosphere each time, could the devils produce a continual background of atmospheric dust that might be mistaken for the fallout of a distant large-scale dust storm? From a human exploration perspective, dust devils are unlikely to pose any, life- threatening situation for an astronaut unfortunate enough to encounter a momentary swirling cloud of loose soil. However, it is noted that pervasive dust is probably one of the greatest long-term hazards for a human encampment. The fineness and penetration capabilities of the dust, its electrostatic adhesive properties, and its complete ubiquity, render the material a persistent nuisance at best, but at worst, over a period of many months it is possible that space suits, machinery, habitat interiors, air filters, and so forth, could become jeopardized. Owing to dust penetration, the space suits used in the Apollo landings were rendered unusable after a few EVA activities. There will be a definite attempt to situate a human colony on Mars in an area that is far removed from the regions of the planet known for being the centers of major dust storms. At the heart of these storm systems, the dust lofting mechanics are unknown, but they are energetic and perhaps potentially life-threatening for an astronaut. Locating a colony in a region that appears from space to be meteorologically benign may lead to colony placement in a region prone to dust devils, but dust devils are not (or have not been) detectable from orbital observations: the region surveyed for placement will appear like the apparently inactive and area referred to earlier. The region may be spared from highly energetic weather systems, but it may not be necessarily immune from continual dust disturbance. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

The thumbprint terrain: What will Mars Observer tell us?

Some of the more puzzling features seen on Mars are those known as curvilinear features or 'thumb print' terrain, types of patterned ground found in the northern plains. The thumbprint terrain, named for its resemblance to the lines of a human thumbprint is found on what appears to be level, relatively low-lying ground near the crustal dichotomy boundary. It is often found near the termini of large channels. There are three types of thumbprint terrain in the classification of Rossbacher and Judson. The first consists of ridges and depressions about a kilometer wide, separated by a few kilometers, and with an apparent relief of 40-100 m. The second consists of steep-sided, flat-floored depressions about a kilometer wide, separated by a few kilometers, and with an apparent relief of 10-290 m. The third consists only of albedo markings, with a typical scale of about a kilometer. Many models were proposed to explain the origin of this terrain. It was suggested that it was caused by lava flows, removal of debris mantles, glaciers, or karst. However, the most popular models at present involve the action of subsurface ice to form such thermokarst features as striped ground, solifluction lobes, and/or linear, ice-cored ridges. There are several instruments on the Mars Observer spacecraft that will be able to provide us with information useful in distinguishing between these models.

Schaefer, M. W.↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

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Datasets for DOE 2023 Communities LEAP

This data is aligned to eligibility criteria outlined in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) 2023 Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program). Please visit the LEAP website (https://www.energy.gov/communitiesLEAP/communities-leap) to learn more about LEAP and gain additional contextual information for how these data may be used. The data provided approximates how the eligibility criteria apply at the census tract level across the United States. This EDX submission provides access to information pertaining to each of the four eligibility criteria outlined (average energy burden, percent low income, communities with a historic economic dependence on fossil fuel industrial facilities, and disadvantaged communities) for all census tracts within the 50 U.S. States, the District of Columbia (D.C.), and Puerto Rico. This information can be access in a detailed excel spreadsheet or through the linked interactive web application (https://arcgis.netl.doe.gov/portal/apps/experiencebuilder/experience/?id=2a77f443d72b4a4d82474b3ffe33b8cd). Please note that while these data are provided at the census tract level, census tracts do not necessarily have the same physical boundaries as a community but were used as they provide the closest proxy based on publicly available information collected using an empirically robust method. U.S. territories are not listed but are eligible to apply to Communities LEAP. As stated in the Opportunity Announcement, applying communities should describe how they meet the eligibility criteria in their application even if these data do not specifically show that they are eligible.

2023↗

Update to the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20124

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance. In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. In accordance with the guidance and recommendations in US DoE's technical standard for DAS, deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to demonstrate the SDF system, which includes the engineered cover system, the SDUs, the waste form, and the natural features of the site, provides a reasonable expectation that saltstone disposal will meet performance objectives. Post-closure doses to future members of the public (MOP) were evaluated; dose estimates from the air pathway were well below the 1.0 E-04 Sv/yr (10 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years, and the calculated doses to the MOP from all exposure pathways, including the groundwater and air pathways, were well below the 2.5 E-04 Sv/yr (25 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years. Doses following an assumed intrusion event within the facility boundaries were well below the IHI performance objectives, where the acute IHI dose was below the acute IHI dose performance objective of 5.0 E-03 Sv (500 mrem) and the chronic IHI dose was below the chronic IHI dose performance objective of 1.0 E-03 Sv/yr (100 mrem/yr) within 1,000 years. (author)

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Systemic Risk From the Perspective of Climate, Environmental and Disaster Risk Science and Practice

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks. Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context. Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

systemic risk↗

Gravitational waves from current-carrying cosmic strings

Cosmic strings are predicted by many Standard Model extensions involving the cosmological breaking of a symmetry with nontrivial first homotopy group and represent a potential source of primordial gravitational waves (GWs). Present efforts to model the GW signal from cosmic strings are often based on minimal models, such as, e.g., the Nambu-Goto action that describes cosmic strings as exactly one-dimensional objects without any internal structure. In order to arrive at more realistic predictions, it is therefore necessary to consider nonminimal models that make an attempt at accounting for the microscopic properties of cosmic strings. With this goal in mind, we derive in this paper the GW spectrum emitted by current-carrying cosmic strings (CCCSs), which may form in a variety of cosmological scenarios. Our analysis is based on a generalized version of the velocity-dependent one-scale (VOS) model, which, in addition to the mean velocity and correlation length of the string network, also describes the evolution of a chiral (light-like) current. Here we are able to show, the solutions of the VOS equations imply a temporarily growing fractional cosmic-string energy density, Ω cs . This results in an enhanced GW signal across a broad frequency interval, whose boundaries are determined by the times of generation and decay of cosmic-string currents. Our findings have important implications for GW experiments in the Hz to MHz band and motivate the construction of realistic particle physics models that give rise to large currents on cosmic strings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Boundary-layer transition detection with infrared imaging emphasizing cryogenic applications

This paper reviews the technique of boundary-layer transition detection using infrared (IR) imaging, emphasizing cryogenic wind-tunnel testing. With the exception of the low-temperature effects on the IR radiation, the discussion is relevant to conventional wind-tunnel and flight testing as well. At low temperatures, IR imaging encounters a reduction in the radiated energy throughout the IR spectrum, combined with a shift to longer wavelengths of the bulk of the radiation. This radiation behavior affects the minimum resolvable temperature difference (MRTD) of the IR imaging system because of its fixed wave band sensitivity. In the absence of commercial long wavelength IR imaging systems, operating at wavelengths longer than 13 micron, some measures can be taken to alleviate the problem caused by the MRTD limitation. The thermal signature of transition can be enhanced by allowing a small and controlled temperature increase of the wind-tunnel flow that induces a transient heat transfer to the model. This action temporarily reveals the model area under the turbulent regime through its higher heating rate compared with the laminar regime. The contrast between the areas exposed to the two regimes can be enhanced by subtraction of thermograms (the equilibrium thermogram from the transient thermogram). Further visual improvement can be obtained through shade stretching or binary shading.

Gartenberg, Ehud↗

Datasets for DOE 2021 Communities LEAP Pilot

This submission offers data aligned to each of the four eligibility criteria outlined in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) 2021 Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot. Please visit the LEAP website (https://www.energy.gov/communitiesLEAP/communities-leap) to learn more about LEAP and gain additional contextual information for how these data may be used. The data provided in the file approximates how the eligibility criteria apply at the census tract level across the United States (U.S.). The excel file available for download provides information pertaining to each of the four criteria outlined (average energy burden, percent low income, historic fossil energy communities) for all census tracts within the 50 U.S. States, the District of Columbia (D.C.), and Puerto Rico. The tabs within the excel file provide a file description, a summary data table (a simplified, easy to use presentation of the four eligibilities criteria), metadata (description, source, and other pertinent details for all variables provided), and a full, detailed data table. Please note that while these data are provided at the census tract level, census tracts do not necessarily have the same physical boundaries as a community but were used as they provide the closest proxy based on publicly available information collected using an empirically robust method. U.S. territories are not listed but are eligible to apply to Communities LEAP. As stated in the Opportunity Announcement, applying communities should describe how they meet the eligibility criteria in their application even if these data do not specifically show that they are eligible.

Communities↗

Geometry and entanglement in the scattering matrix

A formulation of nucleon–nucleon scattering is developed in which the S-matrix, rather than an effective-field theory (EFT) action, is the fundamental object. Spacetime plays no role in this description: the S-matrix is a trajectory that moves between RG fixed points in a compact theory space defined by unitarity. This theory space has a natural operator definition, and a geometric embedding of the unitarity constraints in four-dimensional Euclidean space yields a flat torus, which serves as the stage on which the S-matrix propagates. Trajectories with vanishing entanglement are special geodesics between RG fixed points on the flat torus, while entanglement is driven by an external potential. The system of equations describing S-matrix trajectories is in general complicated, however the very-low-energy S-matrix –that appears at leading-order in the EFT description– possesses a UV/IR conformal invariance which renders the system of equations integrable, and completely determines the potential. In this geometric viewpoint, inelasticity is in correspondence with the radius of a three-dimensional hyperbolic space whose two-dimensional boundary is the flat torus. This space has a singularity at vanishing radius, corresponding to maximal violation of unitarity. The trajectory on the flat torus boundary can be explicitly constructed from a bulk trajectory with a quantifiable error, providing a simple example of a holographic quantum error correcting code.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Variability in Sea Surface Height: A Qualitative Measure for the Meridional Overturning in the North Atlantic

Sea surface height (SSH) from altimeter observations from 1992 on and from modeling results is investigated to determine the modes of variability and the linkages to the state of oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. First the altimeter and model simulated SSH are analyzed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. They are found to share a similar leading mode where the center of action is along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current with opposite sign anomalies in the subpolar gyre and in the slope waters along the Eastern Seaboard. The time series of the leading EOF mode from the altimeter data shows that between winters of 1995 and 1996, SSH over the Gulf Stream decreased by about 12cm which change is reproduced by the model simulation. Based on the relationship from the model simulations between the time series of the SSH EOF1 and meridional heat transport, it is suggested that associated with this SSH change in 1995-96, the overturning has slowed down from its heights in the early 90's. Furthermore, it is shown that decadal variability in the leading SSH mode originates from the thermal forcing component. This adds confidence to the qualitative relationship between the state of overturning/meridional heat transport and SSH in the limited area described by the EOF1. SSH variability in the eastern side of the North Atlantic basin, outside the western boundary current region, is determined by local and remote (Rossby waves) wind stress curl forcing.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗