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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗

Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup

A new research effort at NASA Ames Research Center has been initiated in Planetary Defense, which integrates the disciplines of planetary science, atmospheric entry physics, and physics-based risk assessment. This paper describes work within the new program and is focused on meteor entry and breakup.Over the last six decades significant effort was expended in the US and in Europe to understand meteor entry including ablation, fragmentation and airburst (if any) for various types of meteors ranging from stony to iron spectral types. These efforts have produced primarily empirical mathematical models based on observations. Weaknesses of these models, apart from their empiricism, are reliance on idealized shapes (spheres, cylinders, etc.) and simplified models for thermal response of meteoritic materials to aerodynamic and radiative heating. Furthermore, the fragmentation and energy release of meteors (airburst) is poorly understood.On the other hand, flight of human-made atmospheric entry capsules is well understood. The capsules and their requisite heatshields are designed and margined to survive entry. However, the highest speed Earth entry for capsules is 13 kms (Stardust). Furthermore, Earth entry capsules have never exceeded diameters of 5 m, nor have their peak aerothermal environments exceeded 0.3 atm and 1 kW/sq cm. The aims of the current work are: (i) to define the aerothermal environments for objects with entry velocities from 13 to 20 kms; (ii) to explore various hypotheses of fragmentation and airburst of stony meteors in the near term; (iii) to explore the possibility of performing relevant ground-based tests to verify candidate hypotheses; and (iv) to quantify the energy released in airbursts. The results of the new simulations will be used to anchor said risk assessment analyses. With these aims in mind, state-of-the-art entry capsule design tools are being extended for meteor entries. We describe: (i) applications of current simulation tools to spherical geometries of diameters ranging from 1 to 100 m for an entry velocity of 20 kms and stagnation pressures ranging from 1 to 100 atm; (ii) the influence of shape and departure of heating environment predictions from those for a simple spherical geometry; (iii) assessment of thermal response models for silica subject to intense radiation; and (iv) results for porosity-driven gross fragmentation of meteors, idealized as a collection of smaller objects. Lessons learned from these simulations will be used to help understand the Chelyabinsk meteor entry up to its first point of fragmentation.

Near-Earth Asteroids↗

Asteroid 2008 TC3 Breakup and Meteorite Fractions

The recovery of meteorites from the impact of asteroid 2008 TC3 in the Nubian Desert of Sudan on October 7, 2008, marked the first time meteorites were collected from an asteroid observed in space by astronomical techniques before impacting. Search teams from the University of Khartoum traced the location of the strewn field and collected about 660 meteorites in four expeditions to the fall region, all of which have known fall coordinates. Upon further study, the Almahata Sitta meteorites proved to be a mixed bag of mostly ureilites (course grained, fine grained, and sulfide-metal assemblages), enstatite chondrites (EL3-6, EH3, EH5, breccias) and ordinary chondrites (H5-6, L4-5). One bencubbinite-like carbonaceous chondrite was identified, as well as one unique Rumuruti-like chondrite and an Enstatite achondrite. New analysis: The analysed meteorites so far suggest a high 30-40 percent fraction of non-ureilites among the recovered samples, but that high fraction does not appear to be in agreement with the meteorites in the University of Khartoum (UoK) collection. Ureilites dominate the meteorites that were recovered by the Sudanese teams. To better understand the fraction of recovered materials that fell to Earth, a program has been initiated to type the meteorites in the UoK collection in defined search areas. At this meeting, we will present some preliminary results from that investigation.

Goodrich, C.↗

Meteor Entry and Breakup Based on Evolution of NASAs Entry Capsule Design Tools

Physics of atmospheric entry of meteoroids was an active area of research at NASA ARC up to the early 1970s (e.g., the oft-cited work of Baldwin and Sheaffer). However, research in the area seems to have ended with the Apollo program, and any ties with an active international meteor physics community seem to have significantly diminished thereafter. In the decades following the 1970s, the focus of entry physics at NASA ARC has been on improvement of the math models of shock-layer physics (especially in chemical kinetics and radiation) and thermal response of ablative materials used for capsule heatshields. With the overarching objectives of understanding energy deposition into the atmosphere and fragmentation, could these modern analysis tools and processes be applied to the problem of atmospheric entry of meteoroids as well? In the presentation we will explore: (i) the physics of atmospheric entries of meteoroids using our current state-of-the-art tools and processes, (ii) the influence of shape (and shape change) on flow characteristics, and (iii) how multiple bodies interact.

Prabku, Dinesh K.↗

The breakup of a long-period comet is not a likely match to the Chicxulub impactor

Since the discovery of Ir in the clay layer at the K-Pg boundary, scientists have sought to constrain the origin of the extraterrestrial impactor that triggered the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other species. While the first proposal was for an asteroid, for a while some theories invoked a cometary impactor to explain perceived periodicities in mass extinctions. Such models have long been disfavored by the mass of Ir in the layer, inferred to be 2.0−2.8×10^(11)cu.g. The size of the Chicxulub crater leads to an estimated asteroid impactor diameter, D≈10km. Comets typically impact at higher speeds, reducing the impactor mass for the same impact energy. Although it is increasingly recognized that a continuum exists between comets and asteroids, ’comets’ are considered to be more ice-rich (estimates for 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are about 20%;), implying lower Ir contents per impactor mass. A carbonaceous chondrite-like asteroid of the appropriate size would likely deliver ≈2.3×10^(11)g of Ir, in the center of the estimated mass range of the global Ir layer; but a comet would only deliver ∼0.1×10^(11)g, because it would be less massive. Although these conclusions are long standing, Siraj and Loeb have recently argued anew in favor of a comet over an asteroid, based on dynamical and geochemical evidence. Here we demonstrate that their arguments are based on misinterpretations of the literature, and that an asteroid is in fact still highly favored over a comet.

Steven J. Desch↗

The breakup of a long-period comet is not a likely match to the Chicxulub impactor

Since the discovery of Ir in the clay layer at the K-Pg boundary [1], scientists have sought to constrain the origin of the extraterrestrial impactor that triggered the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other species. While the first proposal was for an asteroid, for a while some theories invoked a cometary impactor to explain perceived periodicities in mass extinctions. Such models have long been disfavored by the mass of Ir in the layer, inferred to be2.0−2.8×1011g. The size of Chicxulub crater leads to an estimated asteroid impactor diameter,D≈10 km. Comets typically impact at higher speeds, reducing the impactor mass for the same impact energy. Although it is increasingly recognized that a continuum exists between comets and asteroids, ’comets’ are considered to be more ice-rich (estimates for67P/ Churyumov-Gerasimenko are about 20%;), implying lower Ir contents per impactor mass. A carbonaceous chondrite-like asteroid of the appropriate size would likely deliver≈2.3×1011gof Ir, in the center of the estimated mass range of the global Ir layer; but a comet would only deliver∼0.1×1011g, because it would be less massive. Although these conclusions are long standing, Siraj & Loeb have recently argued anew in favor of a comet over an asteroid, based on dynamical and geochemical evidence. Here we demonstrate that their arguments are based on misinterpretations of the literature, and that an asteroid is in fact still highly favored over a comet.

Steven J Desch↗