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At least 235 records · Page 13

Advancements on Multi-Fidelity Random Fourier Neural Networks: Application to Hurricane Modeling for Wind Energy

Multi-fidelity approaches are emerging as effective strategies in computational science to handle otherwise intractable tasks like Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), training of Machine Learning (ML) models, and optimization, for expensive high-fidelity applications in which the amount of available simulations or data is limited. The main idea is simple: large datasets generated for low-fidelity approximations of the problem at hand are fused with a much sparser dataset for the target (high-fidelity) system. In this paper, we build on our recent success in designing random Fourier Neural Networks (rFNNs) [1] to target problems arising in wind energy applications and in particular problems of interest for hurricane modeling. In this context, data for the high-fidelity models are limited and lower fidelity alternatives are needed. In this work, we introduce a novel multi-fidelity training approach for our rFNNs and demonstrate its use on a simple verification problem and on a hurricane modeling problem in which high-fidelity data are generated via Large-Eddy Simulations (LES), while low-fidelity data are given by a mesoscale model. Initial results demonstrate how the multi-fidelity training approach can improve the quality of the resulting surrogate.

Fourier Neural Networks↗

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC)--From Technology Development to Future Flight Product

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) is being developed by Sunpower Inc. under contract to NASA s Glenn Research Center (GRC) with critical technology support tasks led by GRC. The ASC development, funded by NASA s Science Mission Directorate, started in 2003 as one of 10 competitively awarded contracts that were intended to address the power conversion needs of future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). The ASC technology has since evolved through progressive convertor builds and successful testing to demonstrate high conversion efficiency (38 percent), low mass (1.3 kg), hermetic sealing, launch vibration simulation, EMI characterization, and is undergoing extended operation. The GRC and Sunpower team recently delivered two ASC-E convertors to the Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company for integration onto the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Engineering Unit (ASRG EU) plus one spare. The design of the next build, called the ASC-E2, has recently been initiated and is based on the heritage ASC-E with design refinements to increase reliability margin and offer higher temperature operation and improve performance. The ASC enables RPS system specific power of about 7 to 8 W/kg. This paper provides a chronology of ASC development to date and summarizes technical achievements including advancements toward flight implementation of the technology on ASRG by as early as 2013.

Wong, Wayne A.↗

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analyzing the Impact of Future Weather Data on Energy Consumption in Weatherization Assistant

This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Installation and Characterization of Charged Particle Sources for Space Environmental Effects Testing

Charged particle sources are integral devices used by Marshall Space Flight Center s Environmental Effects Branch (EM50) in order to simulate space environments for accurate testing of materials and systems. By using these sources inside custom vacuum systems, materials can be tested to determine charging and discharging properties as well as resistance to sputter damage. This knowledge can enable scientists and engineers to choose proper materials that will not fail in harsh space environments. This paper combines the steps utilized to build a low energy electron gun (The "Skevington 3000") as well as the methods used to characterize the output of both the Skevington 3000 and a manufactured Xenon ion source. Such characterizations include beam flux, beam uniformity, and beam energy. Both sources were deemed suitable for simulating environments in future testing.

Skevington, Jennifer L.↗

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sienna Modeling Framework [Slides]

NREL's Sienna modeling framework effectively builds, solves, and analyzes the scheduling problems and dynamic simulations of quasi-static infrastructure systems. It uses a modular framework to answer different questions about future energy systems, fundamentally advancing the nation's ability to model individual and integrated infrastructure systems at a range of spatial and temporal scales. This presentation will include NREL power grid researcher Clayton Barrows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Determination of Ballistic Limit for IM7/8552 Using LS-DYNA MAT 261

The goal of the NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Project is to determine the state of the art of dynamic fracture simulations for high velocity impact for composite fuselage shielding applications. Using a building block approach, several computational models considered under NASA ACC are being validated against test data, starting at unconfigured panels and progressing to configured panels under combined out-of-plane and in-plane loading due to ballistic impact. The computational models being evaluated in this project include MAT 162, MAT 213, MAT 261, SPG, and Peridynamics. In this paper, the simulation results using LS-Dyna Material MAT 261 are presented. In particular, a series of blind predictions for unconfigured panels were performed to determine the ballistic limit or V50 velocity. MAT 261 employs failure approach that is generally physically-based using fracture toughness criteria. The overall material model relies on typical ply-level stiffness properties, similar to MAT 162 and other composite continuum damage material models. The fracture toughness values are based on standard tests, and thus are not subject to extensive calibration. This approach is more efficient than performing extensive optimization studies for calibration of parameters. Also, this approach of relying on physical properties reduces the uncertainty of results, as questions concerning the quality and extent of the calibration studies is no longer relevant. However, it was found that carefully controlled coupon-level tests are needed to accurately obtain the required fracture toughness values. Additionally, it should be noted that there is one significant parameter in MAT 261 that does appear to require calibration, and that is the overall failure strain. This is the strain at which the element is deleted, and is not the same as the strain at which damage begins to accumulate. This failure strain is termed EFS (Effective Failure Strain), and is the maximum effective stain for element failure. Simulations have shown that this value will significantly affect impact response and failure. The paper presents the effect of this element failure strain parameter, along with possible uncertainties in fracture toughness values. With an adjusted appropriate value for EFS, it is seen that simulation results compare well with impact test data for predicted penetration velocity.

Byar, Alan↗

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗

Building a better leapfrog

In stellar dynamical computer simulations, as well as other types of simulations using particles, time step size is often held constant in order to guarantee a high degree of energy conservation. In many applications, allowing the time step size to change in time can offer a great saving in computational cost, but variable-size time steps usually imply a substantial degradation in energy conservation. We present a meta-algorithm' for choosing time steps in such a way as to guarantee time symmetry in any integration scheme, thus allowing vastly improved energy conservation for orbital calculations with variable time steps. We apply the algorithm to the familiar leapfrog scheme, and generalize to higher order integration schemes, showing how the stability properties of the fixed-step leapfrog scheme can be extended to higher order, variable-step integrators such as the Hermite method. We illustrate the remarkable properties of these time-symmetric integrators for the case of a highly eccentric elliptical Kepler orbit and discuss applications to more complex problems.

Hut, Piet↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transition in ICF Capsule Implosions

Longstanding design and reproducibility challenges in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsule implosion experiments involve recognizing the need for appropriately characterized and modeled three-dimensional initial conditions and high-fidelity simulation capabilities to predict transitional flow approaching turbulence, material mixing characteristics, and late-time quantities of interest—e.g., fusion yield. We build on previous coarse graining simulations of the indirect-drive national ignition facility (NIF) cryogenic capsule N170601 experiment-a precursor of N221205 which resulted in net energy gain. We apply effectively combined initialization aspects and multiphysics coupling in conjunction with newly available hydrodynamics simulation methods, including directional unsplit algorithms and low Mach-number correction-key advances enabling high fidelity coarse grained simulations of radiation-hydrodynamics driven transition. Our presentation includes discussion of the capsule initialization and implosion dynamics, analysis of the vorticity production budget, transition signatures, quantities of interest—late-time ion temperature and fusion-neutron yield, numerical uncertainty quantification, and comparisons with NIF data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) analyses of various forms of activity and their propagation through helio spheric space

Theoretical and numerical modeling of solar activity and its effects on the solar atmosphere within the context of magnetohydrodynamics were examined. Specifically, the scientific objectives were concerned with the physical mechanisms for the flare energy build-up and subsequent release. In addition, transport of this energy to the corona and solar wind was also investigated. Well-posed, physically self-consistent, numerical simulation models that are based upon magnetohydrodynamics were sought. A systematic investigation of the basic processes that determine the macroscopic dynamic behavior of solar and heliospheric phenomena was conducted. A total of twenty-three articles were accepted and published in major journals. The major achievements are summarized.

Wu, S. T.↗

Enhancing thermal resilience of US residential homes in hot humid climates during extreme temperature events

Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heat waves due to climate change pose enormous safety and health-related risks to people, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities. In this study, we investigate some of the most promising retrofittable and weatherization methods to keep the living zone of residential buildings within an acceptable safety level. We use hours of safety as the resilience metric, which is defined as the time taken by the building's indoor environment to reach a safety threshold temperature. We first identify various passive measures, such as adding extra insulation, improving air sealing, and integrating phase-change materials, which can operate without any external power during winter-storm and heat-wave events. We then employ a whole-building simulation tool to examine the impact of various combinations of retrofit measures and conduct a parametric study to determine the optimal solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CDL2PLC translator v0.1.0

The CDL-PLC translator aims at translating control sequences for building energy systems from the CDL CXF format to the PLCopen XML format. The CDL CXF developed at LBL within the OpenBuildingControl project, and now being standardized via ASHRAE Standard 231P, enables expressing control sequences developed in the simulation environment Modelica in a JSON format. The PLCopen XML is an existing exchange format standardized in IEC 61131-10 for Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) following the IEC 61131 standard as one target system of CDL among others. The translation from the CDL CXF to the PLCopen XML contributes to a seamless workflow from the model-based development of control sequences in simulation environments, which is not building practice today, and their digital implementation on building controllers, which replaces graphical and textual documents used for this purpose today. The translator is at a prototypical stage and enables, as a proof of concept, the translation of very simple control sequences composed of 4 selected function blocks out of 137 function blocks defined in CDL. The translation includes the connection of inputs and outputs of function blocks and the expression of a control function in CDL to the equivalent code in IEC 61131-3.

Walther, Karl↗

Energy performance evaluation of the ASHRAE Guideline 36 control and reinforcement learning–based control using field measurements

This study evaluates the energy performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36–compliant control (ASHRAE 36 control) and reinforcement learning (RL)–based control through experimental field tests and a simulation study. Three field tests were conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s commercial building test facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee: a baseline with a baseline conventional control, a test with ASHRAE 36 control, and a test with RL-based control. The selected ASHRAE 36 controls were trim and respond control, as well as variable air volume (VAV) box control. We compared the measured supply air temperature of the rooftop unit, VAV box supply air temperature, and VAV box supply airflow rate across the three test cases. The field data indicated that ASHRAE 36 controls operated as specified by ASHRAE Guideline 36. Based on these data, ASHRAE 36 control achieved a 45 % reduction in hourly averaged HVAC energy consumption compared with the baseline, and RL-based control achieved a 66 % reduction. These potential annual energy savings were confirmed using a calibrated whole-building energy model. Compared with the baseline, ASHRAE 36 control reduced HVAC energy consumption by 42 %, and RL-based control achieved a 54 % reduction. Furthermore, RL-based control reduced total HVAC energy consumption by 21 % more than ASHRAE 36 control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A building performance-based approach to determining energy resilience for grocery stores in the event of a power outage

Evaluating progress toward a built environment that is best equipped to serve communities during a regional power outage will require metrics that capture the energy resilience of the unique buildings and businesses most crucial to the well-being of those nearby. We focused on grocery stores as key buildings for which access, and thus energy resilience, is critical during a disaster when power is unavailable. We evaluated the energy resilience of these buildings by offering and testing building-scale metrics that assess business continuity potential during a power outage. Metrics proposed in this study are calculated based on the unique power loads characteristic to grocery stores, primarily refrigeration and maintaining safe indoor environmental conditions. Building simulations based on varying levels of backup power were carried out against occupant safety and comfort parameters to apply these metrics, with additional criteria imposed on grocery stores to capture the inventory and sales loss from food spoilage resulting from a lack of refrigeration power. Findings from this study demonstrate the feasibility of our proposed metrics and methodology to serve as a low-data burden means for stakeholders to evaluate the energy resilience of grocery stores, with greater implications in helping to understand the impact on community-scale energy resilience.

Siegel, Lino Sanchez↗