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In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition

STEPs-SOL, a Peptoid Force Field Parameterization to Include Solvent Effects

As peptoids (N-substituted glycines) continue to gain popularity as a class of biomimetic polymers, the importance and demand for accurate force fields in molecular simulations also grow. Building on the vacuum-optimized Systematic and Extensible Force Field for Peptoids (STEPs) force field, here we present STEPs-SOL, a novel peptoid force field parametrization that effectively incorporates solvent effects to enhance the accuracy of peptoid simulations. The development of STEPs-SOL is based on the need for precise electrostatic modeling achieved through solvent-specific partial charge optimization. Here, our systematic approach significantly improves agreement with experimental measurements, reducing the mean absolute error in cis/trans ratio predictions (ΔG c/t ) by an average of 38% across multiple peptoid residues and solvent environments. This improved parametrization addresses computational challenges associated with nonbonded energies while maintaining a workflow that relies on high-level quantum mechanical data rather than depending solely on limited experimental equilibrium properties. By evaluating the effects of conformational bias in restrained electrostatic potential (RESP) charge generation and examining their impact on peptoid conformations in various solvents, we enhance our understanding of peptoid structural dynamics while providing a more accurate modeling framework.

force field

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Contour Crafting Simulation Plan for Lunar Settlement Infrastructure Build-Up

Economically viable and reliable building systems and tool sets are being sought, examined and tested for extraterrestrial infrastructure buildup. This project focused on a unique architecture weaving the robotic building construction technology with designs for assisting rapid buildup of initial operational capability Lunar and Martian bases. The project aimed to study new methodologies to construct certain crucial infrastructure elements in order to evaluate the merits, limitations and feasibility of adapting and using such technologies for extraterrestrial application. Current extraterrestrial settlement buildup philosophy holds that in order to minimize the materials needed to be flown in, at great transportation costs, strategies that maximize the use of locally available resources must be adopted. Tools and equipment flown as cargo from Earth are proposed to build required infrastructure to support future missions and settlements on the Moon and Mars.

Infrastructure

Validation and Simulation of Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test - 3 - Modeling and Evaluating the Effect of Rainbird Water Deluge Inclusion

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. Building on dry simulations of the ASMAT tests with the vehicle at 5 ft. elevation (100 ft. real vehicle elevation), wet simulations of the ASMAT test setup have been performed using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software to explore the effect of rainbird water suppression inclusion on the launch platform deck. Two-phase water simulation has been performed using an energy and mass coupled lagrangian particle system module where liquid phase emissions are segregated into clouds of virtual particles and gas phase mass transfer is accomplished through simple Weber number controlled breakup and boiling models. Comparisons have been performed to the dry 5 ft. elevation cases, using configurations with and without launch mounts. These cases have been used to explore the interaction between rainbird spray patterns and launch mount geometry and evaluate the acoustic sound pressure level knockdown achieved through above-deck rainbird deluge inclusion. This comparison has been anchored with validation from live-fire test data which showed a reduction in rainbird effectiveness with the presence of a launch mount.

Strutzenberg, Louise L.

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR

Uncertainty Analysis of Sonic Boom Levels Measured in a Simulator at NASA Langley

A sonic boom simulator has been constructed at NASA Langley Research Center for testing the human response to sonic booms heard indoors. Like all measured quantities, sonic boom levels in the simulator are subject to systematic and random errors. To quantify these errors, and their net influence on the measurement result, a formal uncertainty analysis is conducted. Knowledge of the measurement uncertainty, or range of values attributable to the quantity being measured, enables reliable comparisons among measurements at different locations in the simulator as well as comparisons with field data or laboratory data from other simulators. The analysis reported here accounts for acoustic excitation from two sets of loudspeakers: one loudspeaker set at the facility exterior that reproduces the exterior sonic boom waveform and a second set of interior loudspeakers for reproducing indoor rattle sounds. The analysis also addresses the effect of pressure fluctuations generated when exterior doors of the building housing the simulator are opened. An uncertainty budget is assembled to document each uncertainty component, its sensitivity coefficient, and the combined standard uncertainty. The latter quantity will be reported alongside measurement results in future research reports to indicate data reliability.

Rathsam, Jonathan

An Online Tool for Preliminary Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of District Geothermal Heating and Cooling Systems

District geothermal heating and cooling systems (DGHCS) have significant benefits for reducing energy consumption as well as building- and grid-level peak electric demand. Currently, no publicly available tools are available to effectively design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. GeoWISE was originally developed for preliminary design and techno-economic analysis of geothermal heating and cooling systems in an individual commercial or residential building. This paper introduces recent upgrades of GeoWISE that allow users to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. Several new features are implemented in GeoWISE to allow selection and specification of multiple new or existing buildings. A database of information for over 125 million existing U.S. buildings was used in GeoWISE that allows users easily locate existing buildings of interest based on street addresses, and optionally edit information of the buildings (e.g., footprint, vintage, principal functions, number of floors, window-to-wall ratio). Unique energy simulation models of the selected buildings are then automatically created using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) and EnergyPlus simulations are performed to predict thermal loads of the buildings. A simplified DGHCS is then designed and simulated to predict its energy use. A central borehole heat exchanger (BHE) of the DGHCS is sized using the RowWise algorithm of GHEDesigner to meet the thermal loads within user-specified land areas for installing BHE. The upgraded GeoWISE reports the needed capacity of heating and cooling equipment in each building, design of the central BHE, energy consumption reduction, and energy cost saving resulting from using DGHCS compared with conventional HVAC systems. A case study is showcased using the upgraded GeoWISE to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of a simplified DGHCS.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand [ORNL] (ORCID

A software bus for thread objects

The authors have implemented a software bus for lightweight threads in an object-oriented programming environment that allows for rapid reconfiguration and reuse of thread objects in discrete-event simulation experiments. While previous research in object-oriented, parallel programming environments has focused on direct communication between threads, our lightweight software bus, called the MiniBus, provides a means to isolate threads from their contexts of execution by restricting communications between threads to message-passing via their local ports only. The software bus maintains a topology of connections between these ports. It routes, queues, and delivers messages according to this topology. This approach allows for rapid reconfiguration and reuse of thread objects in other systems without making changes to the specifications or source code. A layered approach that provides the needed transparency to developers is presented. Examples of using the MiniBus are given, and the value of bus architectures in building and conducting simulations of discrete-event systems is discussed.

Callahan, John R.

Addressing the split incentive challenge for rooftop solar PV and battery energy storage in multifamily rental buildings (CRADA 638 Final Report)

This project advances the understanding of how roof solar PV systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS) can be effectively deployed in multifamily residential buildings, a sector that has historically faced barriers due to misaligned incentives between landlords and tenants. By leveraging high-resolution building stock data and simulation tools, the research demonstrates how energy consumption patterns vary across building types, climates, and occupant characteristics, and how these variations influence the optimal sizing and operation of distributed energy resources. A key contribution is the development of a publicly accessible, web-based tool named RESIDE (Residential Energy Systems & Infrastructure Data Evaluation) that allows users to explore building energy use and evaluate solar and battery configurations without requiring specialized expertise. This significantly lowers the barrier to entry for stakeholders such as property owners, utilities, and policymakers. From a technical perspective, the project shows that integrating rooftop solar PV with battery energy storage can substantially reduce electricity costs and peak demand through strategies such as energy arbitrage and peak shaving. The modeling framework incorporates real-world constraints, including time-of-use electricity pricing and battery degradation, providing realistic and actionable insights. Economically, the results indicate that properly sized systems can deliver meaningful cost savings, improving the feasibility of energy investments in multifamily housing. More broadly, the project benefits the public by supporting the transition to affordable and reliable energy, particularly in rental multifamily housing where adoption has traditionally lagged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

SOSS User Guide

This User Guide describes SOSS (Surface Operations Simulator and Scheduler) software build and graphic user interface. SOSS is a desktop application that simulates airport surface operations in fast time using traffic management algorithms. It moves aircraft on the airport surface based on information provided by scheduling algorithm prototypes, monitors separation violation and scheduling conformance, and produces scheduling algorithm performance data.

air traffic control

Quantitative simulation of extraterrestrial engineering devices

This is a multicomponent, multidisciplinary project whose overall objective is to build an integrated database, simulation, visualization, and optimization system for the proposed oxygen manufacturing plant on Mars. Specifically, the system allows users to enter physical description, engineering, and connectivity data through a uniform, user-friendly interface and stores the data in formats compatible with other software also developed as part of this project. These latter components include: (1) programs to simulate the behavior of various parts of the plant in Martian conditions; (2) an animation program which, in different modes, provides visual feedback to designers and researchers about the location of and temperature distribution among components as well as heat, mass, and data flow through the plant as it operates in different scenarios; (3) a control program to investigate the stability and response of the system under different disturbance conditions; and (4) an optimization program to maximize or minimize various criteria as the system evolves into its final design. All components of the system are interconnected so that changes entered through one component are reflected in the others.

Arabyan, A.

A dynamic satellite simulation testbed based on CLIPS and CLIPS-derived tools

We were motivated to define and build a sophisticated satellite simulation capability for the evaluation at a satellite operations automated environment called IntelliSTAR. This architecture, and associated prototype, addresses the entire spacecraft operations cycle including planning, scheduling, task execution, and analysis. It is aimed at increasing the autonomous capability of current and future spacecraft. It utilizes advanced software techniques to address incomplete and conflicting data for making decisions. It also encompasses critical response time requirements, complex relationships among multiple systems, and dynamically changing objectives. Given the extreme scope of activities that are targeted, a sophisticated, flexible, and dynamic simulation environment was required to drive this prototype. In particular the derived requirements for evaluating the IntelliSTAR prototype include realistic and dynamic environment, easily reconfigurable, and multiple levels of fidelity.

Gathmann, Thomas P.

Experimental characterization and potential energy savings of insulated cladding for U.S. residential buildings

This study evaluates a novel insulated cladding composed of foamed cement and vinyl siding that is designed as a retrofit product to enhance thermal performance in U.S. residential buildings. Experimental measurements showed that foamed cement exhibits a thermal conductivity of 0.0334–0.0365 W/m-K (R-value of 4.0–4.3 °F⋅ft 2 ⋅h/BTU), which is significantly higher than that of conventional fiber cement boards. Although mechanical testing confirmed the material’s brittleness and low strength, it also indicated its suitability for nonstructural insulation applications. Water vapor permeability testing demonstrated effective moisture resistance with the polymer coating. To evaluate the insulated cladding’s energy performance, we used the U.S. Department of Energy’s prototype single-family building model and simulated across 50 locations spanning 16 International Energy Conservation Code climate zones. The R-7 (R-value of 7 °F⋅ft 2 ⋅h/BTU per inch) retrofit cladding resulted in heating energy savings up to 275 therms (Fairbanks, AK) and cooling energy savings up to 1,547 kWh (Phoenix, AZ). The energy cost savings varied by region, but the highest annual cost savings ($\$$434/year) were observed in Santa Maria, CA, and the highest annual cost savings percentage (37 %) were noted in Monterey, CA. On a national scale, the insulated retrofit provided an average annual energy cost reduction of 16 %, highlighting the cladding system’s broad applicability and financial viability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Open-cycle thermochemical energy storage for building space heating: Practical system configurations and effective energy density

Salt-hydrate thermochemical materials (TCM) are promising candidates for energy storage systems for building space heating due to their high theoretical energy density and the need for low regeneration temperature. However, water vapor is required to drive the hydration process of the TCM reactor, which poses a challenge during winter when water vapor is typically scarce. Using indoor air directly lowers the building's humidity to an unconformable level in practice, while the cold outdoor air contains limited moisture. Here we consider different integration strategies for open-cycle TCM reactors in buildings and develop a model to simulate their thermal performance across diverse buildings and climates, specifically for building space heating. The potential energy densities and the levelized cost of storage of the TCM reactor are evaluated in practical scenarios to demonstrate the load-shifting potential of TCM systems for heating applications. We use a strontium chloride (SrCl 2 )-based composite as the baseline and explore the impact of various reactor and material changes to the energy density and levelized cost of storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Theory and simulations of cross-beam energy transfer between speckled laser beams

In this paper, we introduce a realistic modeling of laser beams smoothed by random phase plates to investigate cross-beam energy transfer (CBET). We compute the total field of the smoothed laser beams, which allows us to perform accurate simulations and to build a model accounting for the realistic structure of the speckles. This lets us confirm the results already discussed in a previous work given by Oudin et al. [Phys. Plasmas 29, 112112 (2022)]. When CBET is induced by a plasma flow, plane wave models can predict the exchange between smoothed laser beams. By contrast, when the exchange is caused by a wavelength shift between the laser fields of each beam, plane wave models overestimate the energy transfer, even for strongly Landau-damped ion acoustic waves. We also show that the laser angular spread, which results from its focusing, affects the resonance between the ponderomotive force induced by the laser fields and the ion acoustic wave. It increases the resonance width, which weakly depends on the Landau damping rate when there is a wavelength shift and no flow. In addition, the power transfer obtained with or without a phase plate is essentially the same in the perturbative regime and for small crossing angles.

Laser plasma interactions

Dissipation-assisted steady-state entanglement engineering based on electron transfer models

Here, we propose a series of dissipation-assisted entanglement generation protocols that can be implemented on a trapped-ion quantum simulator. Our approach builds on the single-site molecular electron transfer (ET) model recently realized in experiment [So et al., Sci. Adv. 10, eads8011 (2024)]. This model leverages spin-dependent boson displacement and dissipation controlled by sympathetic cooling. We show that, when coupled to external degrees of freedom, the ET model can be used as a dissipative quantum control mechanism, enabling the precise tailoring of both spin and boson steady states of a target subsystem. We derive simplified analytical formalisms that offer intuitive insights into the dissipative dynamics. Using realistic interactions in a trapped-ion system, we develop a protocol for generating 𝑁-qubit and 𝑁-boson 𝑊 states. Additionally, we generalize this protocol to realize generic 𝑁-qubit Dicke states with tunable excitation numbers. Finally, we outline a realistic experimental setup to implement our schemes in the presence of noise sources.

chemical charge transfer

The DECADE cosmic shear project I: A new weak lensing shape catalog of 107 million galaxies

We present the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. This catalog was assembled from public DECam data including survey and standard observing programs. These data were consistently processed with the Dark Energy Survey Data Management pipeline as part of the DECADE campaign and serve as the basis of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE) Early Data Release 3 (EDR3). We apply the Metacalibration measurement algorithm to generate and calibrate galaxy shapes. After cuts, the resulting cosmology-ready galaxy shape catalog covers a region of $5,\!412 \,\,{\rm deg}^2$ with an effective number density of $4.59\,\, {\rm arcmin}^{-2}$. The coadd images used to derive this data have a median limiting magnitude of $r = 23.6$, $i = 23.2$, and $z = 22.6$, estimated at ${\rm S/N} = 10$ in a 2 arcsecond aperture. We present a suite of detailed studies to characterize the catalog, measure any residual systematic biases, and verify that the catalog is suitable for cosmology analyses. In parallel, we build an image simulation pipeline to characterize the remaining multiplicative shear bias in this catalog, which we measure to be $m = (-2.454 \pm 0.124) \times10^{-2}$ for the full sample. Despite the significantly inhomogeneous nature of the data set, due to it being an amalgamation of various observing programs, we find the resulting catalog has sufficient quality to yield competitive cosmological constraints.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND