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DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Thermodynamic Properties of Nitrogen Including Liquid and Vapor Phases from 63K to 2000K with Pressures to 10,000 Bar

Tables of thermodynamic properties of nitrogen are presented for the liquid and vapor phases for temperatures from the freezing line to 2000K and pressures to 10,000 bar. The tables include values of density, internal energy, enthalpy, entropy, isochoric heat capacity, isobaric heat capacity velocity of sound, the isotherm derivative, and the isochor derivative. The thermodynamic property tables are based on an equation of state, P=P (p,T), which accurately represents liquid and gaseous nitrogen for the range of pressures and temperatures covered by the tables. Comparisons of property values calculated from the equation of state with measured values for P-p-T, heat capacity, enthalpy, latent heat, and velocity of sound are included to illustrate the agreement between the experimental data and the tables of properties presented here. The coefficients of the equation of state were determined by a weighted least squares fit to selected P-p-T data and, simultaneously, to isochoric heat capacity data determined by corresponding states analysis from oxygen data, and to data which define the phase equilibrium criteria for the saturated liquid and the saturated vapor. The vapor pressure equation, melting curve equation, and an equation to represent the ideal gas heat capacity are also presented. Estimates of the accuracy of the equation of state, the vapor pressure equation, and the ideal gas heat capacity equation are given. The equation of state, derivatives of the equation, and the integral functions for calculating derived thermodynamic properties are included.

Thermodynamic properties↗

NASA NTRS1994

Spur, helical, and spiral bevel transmission life modeling

A computer program, TLIFE, which estimates the life, dynamic capacity, and reliability of aircraft transmissions, is presented. The program enables comparisons of transmission service life at the design stage for optimization. A variety of transmissions may be analyzed including: spur, helical, and spiral bevel reductions as well as series combinations of these reductions. The basic spur and helical reductions include: single mesh, compound, and parallel path plus revert star and planetary gear trains. A variety of straddle and overhung bearing configurations on the gear shafts are possible as is the use of a ring gear for the output. The spiral bevel reductions include single and dual input drives with arbitrary shaft angles. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been executed both in the personal computer DOS environment and on UNIX workstations. The analysis may be performed in either the SI metric or the English inch system of units. The reliability and life analysis is based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution lives of the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the overall transmission and each constituent transmission, its components, and their locations, capacities, and loads. Primary output is the dynamic capacity and 90-percent reliability and mean lives of the unit transmissions and the overall system which can be used to estimate service overhaul frequency requirements. Two examples are presented to illustrate the information available for single element and series transmissions.

Savage, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Streamlining Energy Sprawl: Assessment of Geothermal Impacts on Public Lands

Renewable energy power generation, including geothermal, solar photovoltaics (PV), and wind, can have significant land use impacts depending on the technology and the size of the facility. At the same time, innovations across these renewable technologies are working to improve plant efficiency per acre of disturbance. Through a survey of satellite imagery and other sources, this analysis reevaluates the impact of geothermal power generation and examines the variations in land use for different geothermal technologies (binary, flash, and dry steam). Geothermal operations on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) sites serve as the focus for this analysis - i.e., only active sites with federal mineral ownership for which the BLM receives royalties from power production. The results show significant variation in direct land disturbance across the operations sites and across these three geothermal technologies. Although there is variation across plants within the same geothermal technology category, dry steam plants (The Geysers) were shown to have the lowest impact, in acres per megawatt capacity and acres per gigawatt-hour generation, followed by flash steam and binary plants. Overall, direct land impacts relative to capacity and generation have declined 16-27% for facilities constructed since 2000 as compared to those constructed prior, even though most new facilities are binary plants (which traditionally had higher land disturbance). Additionally, capacity factors based on actual net production data were found to average only 50% across all operations sites, suggesting that previous estimates based on nameplate capacity only may lead to an undercounting of generation-based land disturbance metrics. Should the geothermal industry capture additional market share, improving land disturbance metrics through accurate net production and capacity data and further minimizing impacts will be increasingly important as competition over land use intensifies.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Couluris, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainties in Isoprene Photochemistry and Emissions: Implications for the Oxidative Capacity of Past and Present Atmospheres and for Climate Forcing Agents

Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between -29 and +7, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between -8 and +17, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon first reported in Murray et al. (2014) does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.

methane↗

NASA NTRS2016

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Demand Management: The FCA Balancing Algorithm

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a new NextGen function that resides within the FAA’s Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) software. CTOP was designed to be used in the United States’ national airspace to control the distribution of air traffic demand, both temporally and geographically, through a set of Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs). Each FCA is assigned capacity values that represent an estimated upper limit of manageable demand, and CTOP controls to that capacity by using Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) air traffic control clearances, and/or rerouting flights to an alternate FCA or out of the CTOP completely. CTOP’s decisions about which control options best meet system and user needs are based on the Trajectory Options Set (TOS) submitted by airline operators for each flight. The FCA Balancing Algorithm (FBA) described in this document is a proposed decision support capability that generates CTOP capacity entries for FCAs controlling traffic to a common downstream constraint. The FBA provides an equitable distribution of impact, and addresses the added complexity of assigning FCA capacity values for this specific type of use case, greatly simplifying the FAA air traffic manager’s task.

IDM↗

DOE OSTI2017

An assessment of U.S. rare earth availability for supporting U.S. wind energy growth targets

Global initiatives are focused on deploying clean energy technologies that decrease greenhouse gas emissions. However, many of these technologies rely heavily on a volatile rare earth element (REE) supply chain. In 2016, the global supply of these REEs continues to be concentrated within a small number of countries while clean energy demand continues to grow. To address the critical nature of these REEs, global efforts have been made to diversify supply of REEs. However, it is unclear if the success of these efforts, combined with the most-promising domestic REO production capacity, will be enough to ensure REE supply for domestic clean energy technology demand, including wind energy. We apply a static and dynamic approach to estimate U.S. REE production capacity and its associated effect on U.S. wind energy growth out to 2030. Our static approach shows that U.S. light REE supply from the Mountain Pass, Bear Lodge and potential Phosphate mines operating at maximum production capacity could provide significant light REE supply to satisfy U.S. targets for wind energy REE consumption. Furthermore, when we consider market dynamics, domestic light REE production is inadequate for alleviating the supply constraint which limits overall U.S. wind energy growth out to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Excess entropy and crystallization in Stillinger-Weber and Lennard-Jones fluids

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to contrast the supercooling and crystallization behaviour of monatomic liquids that exemplify the transition from simple to anomalous, tetrahedral liquids. As examples of simple fluids, we use the Lennard-Jones (LJ) liquid and a pair-dominated Stillinger-Weber liquid (SW{sub 16}). As examples of tetrahedral, water-like fluids, we use the Stillinger-Weber model with variable tetrahedrality parameterized for germanium (SW{sub 20}), silicon (SW{sub 21}), and water (SW{sub 23.15} or mW model). The thermodynamic response functions show clear qualitative differences between simple and water-like liquids. For simple liquids, the compressibility and the heat capacity remain small on isobaric cooling. The tetrahedral liquids in contrast show a very sharp rise in these two response functions as the lower limit of liquid-phase stability is reached. While the thermal expansivity decreases with temperature but never crosses zero in simple liquids, in all three tetrahedral liquids at the studied pressure, there is a temperature of maximum density below which thermal expansivity is negative. In contrast to the thermodynamic response functions, the excess entropy on isobaric cooling does not show qualitatively different features for simple and water-like liquids; however, the slope and curvature of the entropy-temperature plots reflect the heat capacity trends. Two trajectory-based computational estimation methods for the entropy and the heat capacity are compared for possible structural insights into supercooling, with the entropy obtained from thermodynamic integration. The two-phase thermodynamic estimator for the excess entropy proves to be fairly accurate in comparison to the excess entropy values obtained by thermodynamic integration, for all five Lennard-Jones and Stillinger-Weber liquids. The entropy estimator based on the multiparticle correlation expansion that accounts for both pair and triplet correlations, denoted by S{sub trip}, is also studied. S{sub trip} is a good entropy estimator for liquids where pair and triplet correlations are important such as Ge and Si, but loses accuracy for purely pair-dominated liquids, like LJ fluid, or near the crystallization temperature (T{sub thr}). Since local tetrahedral order is compatible with both liquid and crystalline states, the reorganisation of tetrahedral liquids is accompanied by a clear rise in the pair, triplet, and thermodynamic contributions to the heat capacity, resulting in the heat capacity anomaly. In contrast, the pair-dominated liquids show increasing dominance of triplet correlations on approaching crystallization but no sharp rise in either the pair or thermodynamic heat capacities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1992

Vegetation canopy PAR absorptance and the normalized difference vegetation index - An assessment using the SAIL model

Relationships are studied between the normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) in a vegetation canopy. The SAIL model of bidirectional canopy radiative transfer is employed to compare NDVI measurements that are instantaneous with diurnally integrated canopy APAR capacity. The NDVI measurements - taken at solar-zenith angles of more than 60 deg and sensor views of less than 40 deg from nadir - give stable near-linear estimates of diurnal APAR capacity. Discrepancies in the relations between APAR and NDVI are associated with variations in the optical properties of the canopy and with background spectral reflectance. The results are significant for the practical use of these remote sensing techniques but suggest that instantaneous observations can be used to characterize the diurnally integrated APAR in vegetation canopies.

Goward, Samuel N.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simultaneous Characterization of Wildfire Smoke and Surface Properties With Imaging Spectroscopy During the FIREX-AQ Field Campaign

We introduce and evaluate an approach for the simultaneous retrieval of aerosol and surface properties from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Classic (AVIRIS-C) data collected during wildfires. The joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign took place in August 2019, and involved two aircraft and coordinated ground-based observations. The AVIRIS-C instrument acquired data from onboard NASA's high altitude ER-2 research aircraft, coincident in space and time with aerosol observations obtained from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) DRAGON mobile platform in the smoke plume downwind of the Williams Flats Fire in northern Washington in August 2019. Observations in this smoke plume were used to assess the capacity of optimal-estimation based retrievals to simultaneously estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface reflectance from Visible Shortwave Infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectroscopy. Radiative transfer modeling of the sensitivities in spectral information collected over smoke reveal the potential capacity of high spectral resolution retrievals to distinguish between sulfate and smoke aerosol models, as well as sensitivity to the aerosol size distribution. Comparison with ground-based AERONET observations demonstrates that AVIRIS-C retrievals of AOD compare favorably with direct sun AOD measurements. Our analyses suggest that spectral information collected from the full VSWIR spectral interval, not just the shortest wavelengths, enables accurate retrievals. We use this approach to continuously map both aerosols and surface reflectance at high spatial resolution across heterogeneous terrain, even under relatively high AOD conditions associated with wildfire smoke.

FIREX-AQ↗

DOE OSTI2017

Capacity Expansion Modeling for Storage Technologies

The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for regional power systems and high levels of renewable generation. Recent extensions capture value-stacking for storage technologies, including batteries and concentrating solar power with storage. After estimating per-unit capacity value and curtailment reduction potential, RPM co-optimizes investment decisions and reduced-form dispatch, accounting for planning reserves; energy value, including arbitrage and curtailment reduction; and three types of operating reserves. Multiple technology cost scenarios are analyzed to determine level of deployment in the Western Interconnection under various conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Effects on Gas Pipelines

Irradiance from a nuclear weapon can be the source of heat on gas infrastructure. This exposure when sufficiently intense can result in failure. An estimation tool for this behavior is the object of this study. A lumped capacity technique is employed to estimate the system temperature rise. The temperature rise is related to three possible outcomes. Two of the outcomes are relatively certain failure and relatively certain lack of effect. A large range of exposures are assessed with the model, and a relatively small number of cases are in the uncertain range. This model is presented as a tool that can be used in conjunction with a structural assessment model to sensitivities to the overpressure and shock to screen potential outcomes from subject events .

02 PETROLEUM↗