Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Climate history”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Geologic history and channeling episodes of the Chryse Planitia region of Mars

The study of the Chryse Planitia region of Mars is based on geologic mapping on a 1:5,000,000 scale shaded relief map. The map area includes Chryse and southern Acidalia Planitiae; the circum Chryse channels and chaotic terrains; Xanthe, southern Tempe, and western Arabia Terrae; Lunae Planum; and northeastern Valles Marineris. The aim of the study is twofold: (1) to obtain relative ages of the outflow channels by performing and compiling detailed stratigraphic analyses; and (2) to correlate channeling episodes with causative mechanisms (such as volcanism and tectonism) and resulting effects (such as climate change). The geologic history given based on this mapping, includes the documentation of a previously unproposed channeling episode in the region as well as the presently favored hypotheses concerning the nature and origin of the channeling events. It is concluded that the history of the Chryse region suggests that two major periods of tectonic activity resulted in two episodes of channeling in the highlands surrounding Chryse Planitia.

Rotto, Susan L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Status of Mars Climate Change Modeling

Researchers have reviewed the evidence that the climate of Mars has changed throughout its history. In this paper, the discussion focuses on where we stand in terms of modeling these climate changes. For convenience, three distinct types of climate regimes are considered: very early in the planet's history (more than 3.5 Ga), when warm wet conditions are thought to have prevailed; the bulk of the planet's history (3.5-1 Ga), during which episodic ocean formation has been suggested; and relatively recently in the planet's history (less than 1 Ga), when orbitally induced climate change is thought to have occurred.

Haberle, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climate Change on Mars

Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

Haberle, R. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites

Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe 3+ /ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. Furthermore, these experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Glacier ice archives nearly 15,000-year-old microbes and phages

Background Glacier ice archives information, including microbiology, that helps reveal paleoclimate histories and predict future climate change. Though glacier-ice microbes are studied using culture or amplicon approaches, more challenging metagenomic approaches, which provide access to functional, genome-resolved information and viruses, are under-utilized, partly due to low biomass and potential contamination. Results We expand existing clean sampling procedures using controlled artificial ice-core experiments and adapted previously established low-biomass metagenomic approaches to study glacier-ice viruses. Controlled sampling experiments drastically reduced mock contaminants including bacteria, viruses, and free DNA to background levels. Amplicon sequencing from eight depths of two Tibetan Plateau ice cores revealed common glacier-ice lineages including Janthinobacterium, Polaromonas, Herminiimonas, Flavobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Methylobacterium as the dominant genera, while microbial communities were significantly different between two ice cores, associating with different climate conditions during deposition. Separately, ~355- and ~14,400-year-old ice were subject to viral enrichment and low-input quantitative sequencing, yielding genomic sequences for 33 vOTUs. These were virtually all unique to this study, representing 28 novel genera and not a single species shared with 225 environmentally diverse viromes. Further, 42.4% of the vOTUs were identifiable temperate, which is significantly higher than that in gut, soil, and marine viromes, and indicates that temperate phages are possibly favored in glacier-ice environments before being frozen. In silico host predictions linked 18 vOTUs to co-occurring abundant bacteria (Methylobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Janthinobacterium), indicating that these phages infected ice-abundant bacterial groups before being archived. Functional genome annotation revealed four virus-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, particularly two motility genes suggest viruses potentially facilitate nutrient acquisition for their hosts. Finally, given their possible importance to methane cycling in ice, we focused on Methylobacterium viruses by contextualizing our ice-observed viruses against 123 viromes and prophages extracted from 131 Methylobacterium genomes, revealing that the archived viruses might originate from soil or plants. Conclusions Together, these efforts further microbial and viral sampling procedures for glacier ice and provide a first window into viral communities and functions in ancient glacier environments. Such methods and datasets can potentially enable researchers to contextualize new discoveries and begin to incorporate glacier-ice microbes and their viruses relative to past and present climate change in geographically diverse regions globally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

Pollack, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

There are several lines of evidence that suggest early Mars was warmer and wetter than it is at present. Perhaps the most convincing of these are the valley networks and degraded craters that characterize much of the ancient terrains. In both cases, fluvial activity associated with liquid water is believed to be involved. Thus, Mars appears to have had a warmer climate early in its history than it does today. How much warmer is not clear, but a common perception has been that global mean surface temperatures must have been near freezing - almost 55 K warmer than at present. The most plausible way to increase surface temperatures is through the greenhouse effect, and the most plausible greenhouse gas is CO2. Pollack et al. estimate that in the presence of the faint young Sun, the early Martian atmosphere would have to contain almost 5 bar of CO2 to raise the mean surface temperature up to the freezing level; only 1 bar would be required if the fluvial features were formed near the calculations now appear to be wrong since Kasting showed that CO2 will condense in the atmosphere at these pressures and that this greatly reduces the greenhouse effect of a pure CO2 atmosphere. He suggested that alternative greenhouse gases such as CH4 or NH3, are required. The early Mars dilemma is approached from a slightly different point of view. In particular, a model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars that draws upon published processes that affect such evolution was constructed. Thus, the model accounts for the variation of solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, escape, and weathering.

Haberle, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hydro-isostatic deflection and tectonic tilting in the central Andes: Initial results of a GPS survey of Lake Minchin shorelines

Sufficiently large lake loads provide a means of probing rheological stratification of the crust and upper mantle. Lake Minchin was the largest of the late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the central Andes. Prominent shorelines, which formed during temporary still-stands in the climatically driven lake level history, preserve records of lateral variations in subsequent net vertical motions. At its maximum extent the lake was 140 m deep and spanned 400 km N-S and 200 km E-R. The load of surficial water contained in Lake Minchin was sufficient to depress the crust and underlying mantle by 20-40 m, depending on the subjacent rheology. Any other differential vertical motions will also be recorded as departures from horizontality of the shorelines. We recently conducted a survey of shoreline elevations of Lake Minchin with the express intent of monitoring the hydro-isostatic deflection and tectonic tilting. Using real-time differential Global Positioning System (GPS), we measured topographic profiles across suites of shorelines at 15 widely separated locations throughout the basin. Horizontal and vertical accuracies attained are roughly 30 and 70 cm, respectively. Geomorphic evidence suggests that the highest shoreline was occupied only briefly (probably less than 200 years) and radiocarbon dates on gastropod shells found in association with the shore deposits constrain the age to roughly 17 kyr. The basin-side pattern of elevations of the highest shoreline is composed of two distinct signals: (27 +/- 1) m of hydro-isostatic deflection due to the lake load, and a planar tilt with east and north components of (6.8 +/- 0.4) 10(exp -5) and 9-5.3 +/- 0.3) 10(exp -5). This rate of tilting is too high to be plausibly attributed to steady tectonism, and presumably reflects some unresolved combination of tectonism plus the effects of oceanic and lacustrine loads on a laterally heterogeneous substrate. The history of lake level fluctuations is still inadequately known to allow detailed inferences of crust and mantle rheology. However, it is already clear that the effective elastic plate thickness is closer to 40 km than the 60-70 km crustal thickness in the central Andes and the effective viscosity is less than 5 10(exp 20) Pa s.

Bills, Bruce G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Small-Scale Polygons and the History of Ground Ice on Mars

This research has laid a foundation for continued study of permafrost polygons on Mars using the models and understanding discussed here. Further study of polygonal patterns on Mars is proceeding (under new funding) which is expected to reveal more results about the origin of observed martian polygons and what information they contain regarding the recent history of tile martian climate and of water ice on Mars.

Mellon, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Proposed Science Requirements and Acquisition Priorities for the First Mars Sample Return

A sample return mission is an important next step in the exploration of Mars. The first sample return should come early in the program time-line because the science derived from earth-based analyses of samples provides crucial "ground truth" needed for further exploration planning, enhancement of remote measurements, and achieving science goals and objectives that include: (1) the search for environments that may support life and any indicators of the past or present existence of life, (2) understanding the history of water and climate on Mars, (3) understanding the evolution of Mars as a planet. Returned samples from Mars will have unique value because they can be studied by scientists worldwide using the most powerful analytical instruments available. Furthermore, returned Mars samples can be preserved for studies by future generations of scientists using new techniques and addressing new issues in Mars science. To ensure a high likelihood of success, the first sample return strategy should be simple and focused. We outline a fundamental set of sample requirements and acquisition priorities for Mars sample return.

Agee, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ice-Ridge Pile Up and the Genesis of Martian "Shorelines"

Unique geomorphologic features such as basin terraces exhibiting topographic continuity have been found within several Martian craters as shown in Viking, MOC, and THEMIS images. These features, showing similarity to terrestrial shorelines, have been mapped and cataloged with significant effort [1]. Currently, open wave action on the surface of paleolakes has been hypothesized as the geomorphologic agent responsible for the generation of these features [2]. As consequence, feature interpretations, including shorelines, wave-cut benches, and bars are, befittingly, lacustrine. Because such interpretations and their formation mechanisms have profound implications for the climate and potential biological history of Mars, confidence is crucial. The insight acquired through linked quantitative modeling of geomorphologic agents and processes is key to accurately interpreting these features. In this vein, recent studies [3,4] involving the water wave energy in theoretical open water basins on Mars show minimal erosional effects due to water waves under Martian conditions. Consequently, sub-glacial lake flattens the surface, produces a local velocity increase over the lake, and creates a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction [11]. These consequences of ice flow are observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica an excellent Martian analogue [11]. Martian observations include reticulate terrain exhibiting sharp inter-connected ridges speculated to reflect the deposition and reworking of ice blocks at the periphery of ice-covered lakes throughout Hellas [12]. Our model determines to what extent ice, a terrestrial geomorphologic agent, can alter the Martian landscape. Method: We study the evolution of crater ice plugs as the formation mechanism of surface features frequently identified as shorelines. In particular, we perform model integrations involving parameters such as ice slope and purity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, crater shape and composition, and an energy balance between solar flux, geothermal flux, latent heat, and ablation. Our ultimate goal is to understand how an intracrater ice plug could create the observed shoreline features and how these

Barnhart, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evidence for Calcium Carbonate at the Phoenix Landing Site

The Phoenix mission has recently finished its study of the north polar environment of Mars with the aim to help understand both the current climate and to put constraints on past climate. An important part of understanding the past climate is the study of secondary minerals, those formed by reaction with volatile compounds such as H2O and CO2. This work describes observations made by the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer (TEGA) on the Phoenix Lander related to carbonate minerals. Carbonates are generally considered to be products of aqueous processes. A wet and warmer climate during the early history of Mars coupled with a much denser CO2 atmosphere are ideal conditions for the aqueous alteration of basaltic materials and the subsequent formation of carbonates. Carbonates (Mg- and Ca-rich) are predicted to be thermodynamically stable minerals in the present martian environment, however, there have been only a few indications of carbonates on the surface by a host of orbiting and landed missions to Mars. Carbonates (Mg-rich) have been suggested to be a component (2-5 wt %) of the martian global dust based upon orbital thermal emission spectroscopy. The identifications, based on the presence of a 1480 cm-1 absorption feature, are consistent with Mgcarbonates. A similar feature is observed in brighter, undisturbed soils by Mini-TES on the Gusev plains. Recently, Mg-rich carbonates have been identified in the Nili Fossae region by the CRISM instrument onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Carbonates have also been confirmed as aqueous alteration phases in martian meteorites so it is puzzling why there have not been more discoveries of carbonates by landers, rovers, and orbiters. Carbonates may hold important clues about the history of liquid water and aqueous processes on the surface of Mars.

Boynton, W. V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Jezero Crater, Mars, as a Compelling Site for Future In Situ Exploration

Jezero is a approximately 45 km diameter impact crater located in the Nili Fossae region of Mars. Jezero is an outstanding site to address key questions of ancient Mars climate, habitability, and volcanic history because: (a) It hosted an open-basin lake during the era of valley network formation [1,2], which ceased at approximately the Noachian-Hesperian boundary [3]. (b) It contains two delta deposits [1,4] with Fe/Mg-smectite and Mg-carbonate sediment [4-7] (the only exposure of lacus-trine shoreline carbonates seen so far on Mars). (c) The depositional environment and mineral assemblage of the delta are promising for the concentration and preservation of organic matter [5,8]. (d) The diverse geologic units in Jezero are in clear stratigraphic context [7]. The Jezero paleolake system has been thoroughly investigated at a variety of scales, including work on: the mineralogy of the delta deposits [4-6] and watershed [7], as well as the morphology and sedimentology of the basin [9] and delta deposits [1,4]. The geologic context of Jezero is also well-studied given the broad suite of alteration minerals exposed in the ancient stratigraphies of the Nili Fossae region [e.g., 6,10-13]. Here we present an overview of the units accessible for exploration in the Jezero basin, including questions and hypotheses that can be tested through analysis in situ and of returned samples. This is particularly timely given the upcoming Mars 2020 mission, for which Jezero is one of the final eight landing sites [14]. Primary science objectives for Mars 2020 are to: (1) characterize the geologic history of a site with "evidence of an astrobiologically-relevant ancient environment and geologic diversity"; (2) assess the habitability and "potential evidence of past life" in units with "high biosignature preservation potential"; and (3) cache scientifically compelling samples for potential return to Earth [15].

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2020

Sediment Sorting and Rounding in a Basaltic Glacio-Fluvio-Aeolian Environment: Ϸhórisjökull Glacier, Iceland

Sediments and sedimentary rocks preserve a rich history of environment and climate. Identifying these signals requires an understanding of the physical and chemical processes that have affected sedimentary deposits [1]. Such processes include sorting and rounding during transport and chemical alteration through weathering and diagenesis. Although these processes have long been studied in quartz-dominated sedimentary systems [2], a lack of studies of basaltic sedimentary systems limits our interpretations of the environment and climate where mafic source rocks dominate, such as on Mars [3,4]. As part of the SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments project [5], which uses robotic operations to examine physical and chemical changes to sediments in basaltic glacio-fluvialaeolian environments, this research studies changes in sorting and rounding of fluvial-aeolian sediments along a glacier-proximal-to-glacier-distal transect in the outwash-plain of the Ϸόrisjökull glacier in SW Iceland (Fig. 1)

Mason, K. G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mineralogy of Mudstone at Gale Crater, Mars: Evidence for Dynamic Lacustrine Environments

The Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover landed in Gale crater in August 2012 to assess the habitability of sedimentary deposits that show orbital evidence for diverse ancient aqueous environments. Gale crater contains a 5 km high mound of layered sedimentary rocks in its center, informally named Mount Sharp. The lowermost rocks of Mount Sharp contain minerals that are consistent with a dramatic climate change during Mars' early history. During the rover's traverse across the Gale crater plains to the base of Mount Sharp, Curiosity discovered sedimentary rocks consistent with a fluviolacustrine sequence. Curiosity studied ancient lacustrine deposits at Yellowknife Bay on the plains of Gale crater and continues to study ancient lacustrine deposits in the Murray formation, the lowermost unit of Mount Sharp. These investigations include drilling into the mudstone and delivering the sieved less than 150 micrometers fraction to the CheMin XRD/XRF instrument inside the rover. Rietveld refinement of XRD patterns measured by CheMin generates mineral abundances with a detection limit of 1-2 wt.% and refined unit-cell parameters of minerals present in abundances greater than approximately 5 wt.%. FULLPAT analyses of CheMin XRD patterns provide the abundance of X-ray amorphous materials and constrain the identity of these phases (e.g., opal-A vs. opal-CT). At the time of writing, CheMin has analyzed 14 samples, seven of which were drilled from lacustrine deposits. The mineralogy from CheMin, combined with in-situ geochemical measurements and sedimentological observations, suggest an evolution in the lake waters through time, including changes in pH and salinity and transitions between oxic and anoxic conditions. In addition to a geochemically dynamic lake environment, the igneous minerals discovered in the lake sediments indicate changes in source region through time, with input from mafic and silicic igneous sources. The Murray formation is predominantly comprised of lacustrine mudstone and is 150-200 m thick, suggesting long history of lake environments in Gale crater. Curiosity has traversed through the lowermost approximately 30 m of the Murray formation, and each additional sample provides clues about the climate on early Mars.

Rampe, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗