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NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

For January-March 2003, we use 12.5-km resolution Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data for the first time in a comparison with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data to study two Chukchi coast polynyas, one consisting of many, the other of only a few 25-km SSM/I pixels. Within these polynyas, the ice thicknesses are derived separately from the SMM/I 37-GHz and AMSR 36-GHz channels; the heat fluxes are derived by combining thicknesses with meteorological data. Comparison with ScanSAR data shows that for the large polynya, because AMSR provides better resolution of the surrounding coastline and first-year ice, the AMSR heat losses are greater than the SSM/I; for the small polynya, AMSR measures its variability even when its area is order of a single SSM/I pixel. This means that AMSR permits more accurate calculation of polynya heat losses, yielding the potential of improved estimates of Arctic polynya productivity.

ice thicknesses↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

Chukchi coast polynyas↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvements in the estimates of ice thickness and production in the Chukchi Sea polynyas derived from AMSR-E

Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR)↗

NASA NTRS2005

Channel alignment and radiometry in hyperspectral atmospheric infrared sounders

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyper-spectral infrared sounder which covers the 3.7 to 15,4 micron region with 2378 spectral channels. The AIRS instrument specification called for spatial co-registration of all channels to better than 2% of the field of view. Pre-launch testing confirmed that this requirement was met, since the standard deviations in the centroids was about 1% of the 13.5 km IFOV in scan and 3% in track. Detailed analysis of global AIRS data show that the typical scene gradient in 10 micron window channels is about I .3K/km rms. The way these gradients, which are predominantly caused by clouds, manifest themselves in the data depends on the details of the instrument design and the way the spectral channels are used in the data analysis, AIRS temperature and moisture retrievals use 328 of the 2378 channels from 17 independent arrays. As a result, the effect of the boresight misalignment averages to zero mean. Any increase in the effective noise is less than 0.2K. Also, there is no discernable performance degradation of products at the 45 km spatial resolution in the presence of partially cloudy scenes with up to 80% cloudiness. Single pixel radiometric differences between channels with boresight alignment differences can be appreciable and can affect scientific investigations on a single 15km footprint scale, particularly near coastlines, thunderstorms and surface emissivity inhomogeneities.

sounders↗

NASA NTRS2006

SeaWinds Scatterometer Wind Vector Retrievals Within Hurricanes Using AMSR and NEXRAD to Perform Corrections for Precipitation Effects: Comparison of AMSR and NEXRAD Retrievals of Rain

The opportunity provided by satellite scatterometers to measure ocean surface winds in strong storms and hurricanes is diminished by the errors in the received backscatter (SIGMA-0) caused by the attenuation, scattering and surface roughening produced by heavy rain. Providing a good rain correction is a very challenging problem, particularly at Ku band (13.4 GHz) where rain effects are strong. Corrections to the scatterometer measurements of ocean surface winds can be pursued with either of two different methods: empirical or physical modeling. The latter method is employed in this study because of the availability of near simultaneous and collocated measurements provided by the MIDORI-II suite of instruments. The AMSR was designed to measure atmospheric water-related parameters on a spatial scale comparable to the SeaWinds scatterometer. These quantities can be converted into volumetric attenuation and scattering at the Ku-band frequency of SeaWinds. Optimal estimates of the volume backscatter and attenuation require a knowledge of the three dimensional distribution of reflectivity on a scale comparable to that of the precipitation. Studies selected near the US coastline enable the much higher resolution NEXRAD reflectivity measurements evaluate the AMSR estimates. We are also conducting research into the effects of different beam geometries and nonuniform beamfilling of precipitation within the field-of-view of the AMSR and the scatterometer. Furthermore, both AMSR and NEXRAD estimates of atmospheric correction can be used to produce corrected SIGMA-0s, which are then input to the JPL wind retrieval algorithm.

SeaWinds↗

NASA NTRS2006

Atlantic to Mediterranean Sea Level Difference Driven by Winds near Gibraltar Strait

Observations and numerical simulations show that winds near Gibraltar Strait cause an Atlantic Ocean to Mediterranean Sea sea level difference of 20 cm peak to peak with a 3-cm standard deviation for periods of days to years. Theoretical arguments and numerical experiments establish that this wind-driven sea level difference is caused in part by storm surges due to alongshore winds near the North African coastline on the Atlantic side of Gibraltar. The fraction of the Moroccan coastal current offshore of the 284-m isobath is deflected across Gibraltar Strait, west of Camarinal Sill, resulting in a geostrophic surface pressure gradient that contributes to a sea level difference at the stationary limit. The sea level difference is also caused in part by the along-strait wind setup, with a contribution proportional to the along-strait wind stress and to the length of Gibraltar Strait and adjoining regions and inversely proportional to its depth.

atmospheric pressure fluctuations↗

NASA NTRS2007

Saharan Air and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Suppression From a Global Modeling Perspective

During summer 2006, the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) organized a field campaign in Africa called Special Observation Period (SOP-3), in which scientists in the field were involved in a number of surface network and aircraft measurements. One of the scientific goals of the campaign was to understand the nature and causes for tropical cyclogenesis originating out of African Easterly Waves (AEWs, westward propagating atmospheric disturbances sometimes associated with precursors of hurricanes), and the role that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL, a hot and dry air layer advecting large amounts of dust) can play in the formation or suppression of tropical cyclones. During the NAMMA campaign a high-resolution global model, the NASA GEOS-5, was operationally run by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) in support to the mission. The daily GEOS-5 forecasts were found to be very useful by decision-making scientists in the field as an aid to discriminate between developing and non-developing AEWs and plan the flight tracks. In the post-event analyses which were performed mostly by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, two events were highlighted: a non-developing AEW which appeared to have been suppressed by Saharan air, compared to a developing AEW which was the precursor of hurricane Helene. Both events were successfully predicted by the GEOS-5 during the real-time forecasts provided in support to the mission. In this work it is found that very steep moisture gradients and a strong thermal dipole, with relatively warm air in the mid-troposphere and cool air below, are associated with SAL in both the GEOS-5 forecasts and the NCEP analyses, even at -great distance- from the Sahara. The presence of these unusual thermodynamic features over the Atlantic Ocean, at several thousands of kilometers from the African coastline, is suggestive that SAL mixing is very minimal and that the model's capability of retaining the different properties of air masses during transport are important to represent effectively the role of dry air intrusions in the tropical circulation.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Models of Active Glacial Isostasy Roofing Warm Subduction: Case of the South Patagonian Ice Field

Modern geodetic techniques such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-resolution space gravity mapping (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) make it possible to measure the present-day rate of viscoelastic gravitational Earth response to present and past glacier mass changes. The Andes of Patagonia contain glacial environments of dramatic mass change. These mass load changes occur near a tectonically active boundary between the Antarctic and South American plates. The mechanical strength of the continental side of this boundary is influenced by Neogene ridge subduction and by the subduction of a youthful oceanic slab. A ridge of young volcanos parallels the Pacific coastline. Release of volatiles (such as water) at depth along this ridge creates a unique rheological environment. To assess the influence of this rheological ridge structure on the observational land uplift rate, we apply a two dimensional viscoelastic Earth model. A numerical study is presented which examines the sensitivity of the glacial loading-unloading response to the complex structure at depth related to the subducting slab, the viscous wedge between slab and continental lithosphere, and the increase of elastic thickness from oceanic to continental lithosphere. A key feature revealed by our numerical experiments is a continuum flow wherein the slab subdues the material transport toward oceanic mantle and crust. The restricted flow is sensitive to the details of slab mechanical strength and penetration into the upper mantle. The reduced viscosity within the mantle wedge, however, enhances the load-induced material transport everywhere within the asthenosphere.

crustal mass changes↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verify MesoNAM Performance

The AMU conducted an objective analysis of the MesoNAM forecasts compared to observed values from sensors at specified KSC/CCAFS wind towers by calculating the following statistics to verify the performance of the model: 1) Bias (mean difference), 2) Standard deviation of Bias, 3) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and 4) Hypothesis test for Bias = O. The 45 WS LWOs use the MesoNAM to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at KSC and CCAFS had not been measured objectively. The analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point to the observed values from the sensors on wind towers. The data were stratified by tower sensor, month and onshore/offshore wind direction based on the orientation of the coastline to each tower's location. The model's performance statistics were then calculated for each wind tower based on sensor height and model initialization time. The period of record for the data used in this task was based on the operational start of the current MesoNAM in mid-August 2006 and so the task began with the first full month of data, September 2006, through May 2010. The analysis of model performance indicated: a) The accuracy decreased as the forecast valid time from the model initialization increased, b) There was a diurnal signal in T with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, c) There was a diurnal signal in Td with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night, and d) The model parameters at each vertical level most closely matched the observed parameters at heights closest to those vertical levels. The AMU developed a GUI that consists of a multi-level drop-down menu written in JavaScript embedded within the HTML code. This tool allows the LWO to easily and efficiently navigate among the charts and spreadsheet files containing the model performance statistics. The objective statistics give the LWOs knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses and the GUI allows quick access to the data which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Understanding the Environmental and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching from the West to the East African coastlines, has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. A new interdisciplinary research effort sponsored by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand the possible connection between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized in investigating multiple regional surface, atmospheric, and water-cycle processes, and inferring possible links between them. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding'of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the biomass burning and the environmental change dynamics in the NSSA region.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2012

Interactions and Feedbacks Between Biomass Burning and Water Cycle Dynamics Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching from the West to the East African coastlines, has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. A new interdisciplinary research effort sponsored by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand the possible connection between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized in investigating multiple regional surface, atmospheric, and water-cycle processes, and inferring possible links between them. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the biomass burning and the environmental change dynamics in the NSSA region.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2012

Researching the Link Between Biomass Burning and Drought Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Savanna/Sahel Belt

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded by the Sahara, Equator, and the West and East African coastlines, is subjected to intense biomass burning every year during the dry season. This is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle anomalies that probably contribute to drought and desertification. In this presentation, we will discuss a new multi-disciplinary research in the NSSA region, review progress, evaluate preliminary results, and interact with the research and user communities to examine how best to coordinate with other research activities in order to address related environmental issues most effectively.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Wood, Lance↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Microradiometers Reveal Ocean Health, Climate Change

When NASA researcher Stanford Hooker is in the field, he pays close attention to color. For Hooker, being in the field means being at sea. On one such research trip to the frigid waters of the Arctic, with a Coast Guard icebreaker looming nearby and the snow-crusted ice shelf a few feet away, Hooker leaned over the edge of his small boat and lowered a tethered device into the bright turquoise water, a new product devised by a NASA partner and enabled by a promising technology for oceanographers and atmospheric scientists alike. Color is a function of light. Pure water is clear, but the variation in color observed during a visit to the beach or a flight along a coastline depends on the water s depth and the constituents in it, how far down the light penetrates and how it is absorbed and scattered by dissolved and suspended material. Hooker cares about ocean color because of what it can reveal about the health of the ocean, and in turn, the health of our planet. "The main thing we are interested in is the productivity of the water," Hooker says. The seawater contains phytoplankton, microscopic plants, which are the food base for the ocean s ecosystems. Changes in the water s properties, whether due to natural seasonal effects or human influence, can lead to problems for delicate ecosystems such as coral reefs. Ocean color can inform researchers about the quantities and distribution of phytoplankton and other materials, providing clues as to how the world ocean is changing. NASA s Coastal Zone Color Scanner, launched in 1978, was the first ocean color instrument flown on a spacecraft. Since then, the Agency s ocean color research capabilities have become increasingly sophisticated with the launch of the SeaWiFS instrument in 1997 and the twin MODIS instruments carried into orbit on NASA s Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites. The technology provides sweeping, global information on ocean color on a scale unattainable by any other means. One issue that arises from satellite observation, however, is that the instruments must be continuously calibrated over time to maintain the quality of the data they gather from orbit. To validate and calibrate the satellites, researchers must also gather data at sea level.

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