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At least 235 records · Page 13

Steps Toward Optimal Competitive Scheduling

This paper is concerned with the problem of allocating a unit capacity resource to multiple users within a pre-defined time period. The resource is indivisible, so that at most one user can use it at each time instance. However, different users may use it at different times. The users have independent, se@sh preferences for when and for how long they are allocated this resource. Thus, they value different resource access durations differently, and they value different time slots differently. We seek an optimal allocation schedule for this resource. This problem arises in many institutional settings where, e.g., different departments, agencies, or personal, compete for a single resource. We are particularly motivated by the problem of scheduling NASA's Deep Space Satellite Network (DSN) among different users within NASA. Access to DSN is needed for transmitting data from various space missions to Earth. Each mission has different needs for DSN time, depending on satellite and planetary orbits. Typically, the DSN is over-subscribed, in that not all missions will be allocated as much time as they want. This leads to various inefficiencies - missions spend much time and resource lobbying for their time, often exaggerating their needs. NASA, on the other hand, would like to make optimal use of this resource, ensuring that the good for NASA is maximized. This raises the thorny problem of how to measure the utility to NASA of each allocation. In the typical case, it is difficult for the central agency, NASA in our case, to assess the value of each interval to each user - this is really only known to the users who understand their needs. Thus, our problem is more precisely formulated as follows: find an allocation schedule for the resource that maximizes the sum of users preferences, when the preference values are private information of the users. We bypass this problem by making the assumptions that one can assign money to customers. This assumption is reasonable; a committee is usually in charge of deciding the priority of each mission competing for access to the DSN within a time period while scheduling. Instead, we can assume that the committee assigns a budget to each mission.This paper is concerned with the problem of allocating a unit capacity resource to multiple users within a pre-defined time period. The resource is indivisible, so that at most one user can use it at each time instance. However, different users may use it at different times. The users have independent, se@sh preferences for when and for how long they are allocated this resource. Thus, they value different resource access durations differently, and they value different time slots differently. We seek an optimal allocation schedule for this resource. This problem arises in many institutional settings where, e.g., different departments, agencies, or personal, compete for a single resource. We are particularly motivated by the problem of scheduling NASA's Deep Space Satellite Network (DSN) among different users within NASA. Access to DSN is needed for transmitting data from various space missions to Earth. Each mission has different needs for DSN time, depending on satellite and planetary orbits. Typically, the DSN is over-subscribed, in that not all missions will be allocated as much time as they want. This leads to various inefficiencies - missions spend much time and resource lobbying for their time, often exaggerating their needs. NASA, on the other hand, would like to make optimal use of this resource, ensuring that the good for NASA is maximized. This raises the thorny problem of how to measure the utility to NASA of each allocation. In the typical case, it is difficult for the central agency, NASA in our case, to assess the value of each interval to each user - this is really only known to the users who understand their needs. Thus, our problem is more precisely formulated as follows: find an allocation schedule for the resource that maximizes the sum ofsers preferences, when the preference values are private information of the users. We bypass this problem by making the assumptions that one can assign money to customers. This assumption is reasonable; a committee is usually in charge of deciding the priority of each mission competing for access to the DSN within a time period while scheduling. Instead, we can assume that the committee assigns a budget to each mission.

Frank, Jeremy↗

Development of a Human Behavior and Performance Training Curriculum for ISS Astronauts

The paper will describe the DACUM process and summarize the core competencies that were agreed upon, internationally, as important for ISS astronauts. The paper will further discuss the ongoing work being completed by the subgroup, Human Behaviour and Performance Training Working Group, including defining the competencies and behavioural markers. Finally, an overview of remaining work will be provided, including determining which competencies require formal training and which require no formal training, developing training objectives, sequencing the training, and establishing how to assess training effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Designing a common set of goals for behavioural training has been the desire of the SHBP WG since its inception in 1998. This group, along with training specialists and astronauts, are making great strides toward defining these competencies. The road ahead will be exceedingly challenging as training objectives are defined and a training flow is proposed to the MCOP; with proposed ISS crews increasing to six people in the near future, such enhanced behavioural training may be all the more essential for mission success.

VanderArk, Steve↗

Thinking outside the box: The human role in increasingly automated aviation systems

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are enabling automated systems to operate in an increasingly autonomous manner in domains that previously required the involvement of human operators. Examples are rail transport systems, self-driving cars, and warehouse delivery systems. From time to time, such automation encounters operational conditions that fall outside a “competency box” within which the system has been designed to operate. Human operators add resilience because they can see and act outside the competency box of scenarios and environments for which the system was designed. The system’s competencies can be expanded over time with modifications to software, sensors, etc.; however, it is unclear at what point the competency box becomes large enough to safely eliminate the role of the human operator. One area where advanced automation may be applied is Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Current UAM concepts envision fleets of highly automated air vehicles providing on-demand transport for people and goods. A phased development of UAM has been proposed, beginning with on-board pilots and transitioning to a future state where automated vehicles operate with minimal human involvement. Proponents of UAM note that this final state reduces cost as well as eliminating pilot error, identified as a contributing factor in many aircraft accidents. However, eliminating human involvement also risks eliminating their positive contributions to system resilience. Here we examine Concepts of Operation proposed for future UAM systems and explore how humans can best be incorporated to maintain resilience while minimizing cost and risk. A human-autonomy teaming approach is suggested.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

Cybersecurity Training Curriculum Analysis through the application of Machine Learning Text Classification and Natural Language Processing

In the domain of cybersecurity, there are a wide variety of education and training courses offered by a variety of training providers (commercial vendors, governmental, and academic institutions). Unfortunately, a comprehensive cross-provider mapping of the body of course offerings does not currently exist. Furthermore, although individual providers have made efforts, an accepted cross-provider mapping of education and training courses (or categories) to an accepted framework of work-roles by cybersecurity work-role and competency level has not yet been developed. The inability to compare training courses by topic or cybersecurity work-role and the level of difficulty (competency level) affects all organizations in identifying and selecting potential training opportunities for their personnel performing cybersecurity duties. In this work, we report on our application of Machine Learning (ML) Text Classification and Natural Language Processing (NLP) methodologies to begin to create a process to organize an accurate and thorough catalog of course offerings by work-role and competency level. Through the analysis of text-based course attributes (description, learning objectives, prerequisites, etc.) along with the text-based attributes for identified cybersecurity work-roles, our ML efforts examined methods to determine the work-role "best-fit" for each course as well as the competency level through action-verb text comparison.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The direct and indirect effects of copper on vector-borne disease dynamics

Metal pollution is a growing concern that affects the health of humans and animals globally. Copper is an essential insect micronutrient required for respiration, pigmentation and oxidative stress protection but can also act as a potentially toxic trace element. While several studies have focused on the negative fitness effects of copper on the aquatic larvae of mosquitoes, the effects of larval copper exposure on adult mosquito fitness (i.e., survival and fecundity) and their ability to transmit parasites (i.e., vector competence) remains unclear. Here, using a well-studied model vector-parasite system, the mosquito Aedes aegypti and parasite Dirofilaria immitis, we show that sublethal copper exposure in larval mosquitoes alters adult female fecundity and vector competence. Specifically, mosquitoes exposed to copper had a hormetic fecundity response and mosquitoes exposed to 600 μg/L of copper had significantly fewer infective parasite larvae than control mosquitoes not exposed to copper. Therefore, exposure of mosquito larvae to copper levels far below EPA-mandated safe drinking water limits (1300 μg/L) can impact vector-borne disease dynamics not only by reducing mosquito abundance (through increased larval mortality), but also by reducing parasite transmission risk. Our results also demonstrated that larval copper is retained through metamorphosis to adulthood in mosquitoes, indicating that these insects could transfer copper from aquatic to terrestrial foodwebs, especially in urban areas where they are abundant. To our knowledge this is the first study to directly link metal exposure with vector competence (i.e., ability to transmit parasites) in any vector-parasite system. Additionally, it also demonstrates unequivocally that mosquitoes can transfer contaminants from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems. These results have broad implications for public health because they directly linking contaminants and vector-borne disease dynamics, as well as linking mosquitoes and contaminant dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling Hydrogen Induced Geochemical Reaction Mechanisms through Coupled Geochemical Modeling and Machine Learning

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) provides a promising large-scale, long-term energy storage solution. A reasonable recovery of stored hydrogen is critical for a successful storage scheme. However, in subsurface reservoirs hydrogen is subject to active geochemical reactions that might result in hydrogen loss. In this study, we implemented a geochemical modeling approach coupled with an unsupervised machine learning technique called non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to unravel the complex brine-rock-H 2 geochemical processes responsible for hydrogen losses, with particular focus on sulfate reduction reactions. NMF is applied to modeled mineral evolution and fluid component profiles to retrieve profiles that can be interpreted to more easily assess competing processes. NMF decouples simulated competing equilibrium reactions. This facilitates separation of overlapping reaction profiles from redox processes, dissolution fronts, and secondary precipitation while considering the effects of simulation parameters such as salinity, temperature, and total H 2 pressure. NMF successfully discriminates these competing effects in nonlinear ways, allowing robust interpretation. In addition, NMF reveals subtle coupled mineral associations and reaction fronts that are invisible to conventional model analysis. This integrated approach strengthens the conceptual understanding of complex nonlinear hydrogen-brine-rock interactions and advances geochemical research on UHS systems to resolve complexities in modeled geochemical systems without the need for direct experiments or prior knowledge. Furthermore, this study highlights the efficacy of combining geochemical modeling with machine learning techniques to enhance the interpretability of the intricate geochemical simulation output through deciphering the overlapping reaction path that cannot be achieved only using conventional analysis of geochemical models alone.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Part I: Predicting performance of Purolite A532E resins for remediation of comingled contaminants in groundwater

Ion exchange (IX) resins are used in pump-and-treat (P&T) facilities to remove soluble groundwater contaminants. However, natural anions present at concentrations orders of magnitude higher than contaminants can compete for IX sites and impact resin lifecycles. Here, the Hanford Site’s 200 West Area P&T facility (Washington State, USA) was selected as a case study because it currently uses two IX resins: Purolite® A532E (A532E) to remove pertechnetate (TcO 4 - ) and DOWEX 21K (DOWEX) to remove uranium from groundwater. Nitrate (NO 3 - ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), chloride (Cl - ), and carbonate (CO 3 2- ) anions have been identified to potentially compete for A532E and DOWEX IX sites. Hanford-relevant anion groundwater concentrations were used to design a series of laboratory-scale batch experiments to evaluate the impact of competing anions on resin performance and potential kinetic effects. These data are then modeled to obtain Cl--normalized equilibrium exchange coefficients (K) needed to predict IX resin performance. The work is presented in two parts, with IX performance evaluated for A532E in Part I and DOWEX in Part II. Part I results demonstrate that TcO 4 - uptake is not impacted by NO 3 - , SO 4 2- , Cl - , CO 3 2- (as HCO 3 - ) and U(VI) carbonate anions, with K TcO4-/Cl- > 4,000, likely due to the high selectivity of A532E trihexylammonium sites for the large, weakly hydrated TcO 4 - anion. Other anion K values were K NO3-/Cl- = 20, K SO4--/Cl- = 0.2, K HCO3-/Cl- = 0.09, K U/Cl- = 370–1000. These K values provide conservative parameters for predicting A532E performance, and demonstrate that, under these test conditions, A532E will remove TcO 4 - from current and future influent streams to meet groundwater treatment objectives.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Part II: Predicting performance of $\mathrm{DOWEX 21K}$ resin for remediation of comingled contaminants in groundwater

The selectivity of ion exchange (IX) resins for aqueous contaminant removal can be impacted by changing concentrations of competing natural groundwater ions. In a two-part investigation, the Hanford Site 200 West Area pump-and-treat (P&T) facility in Washington State, USA is used as a case study to evaluate the performance of two IX resins for groundwater treatment: Purolite® A532E for pertechnetate (TcO 4 - ) removal, explored in Part I, and DOWEX 21K (DOWEX) for uranium (U) removal. In Part II, DOWEX selectivity for U, as uranyl carbonate species, and uptake kinetics is quantified in a series of laboratory-scale aqueous batch experiments containing Hanford-relevant concentrations of competing anions nitrate (NO 3 - ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), chloride (Cl - ), and carbonate (CO 3 2- ), as well as co-mingled contaminant TcO 4 - . Here the results demonstrate that DOWEX trimethylammonium functional groups are highly selective for U carbonate species (85–100 % uptake) under all conditions investigated. Only NO 3 - concentrations of 100 mM were shown to decrease U removal, with the extent (85–99 %) depending on competing anion concentrations present in solution. However, at the highest NO 3 - concentrations reported for groundwaters treated at the P&T facility (25 mM), the effect on U uptake is minimal. The batch sorption results are modeled to obtain chloride normalized equilibrium exchange coefficients (K) for predicting DOWEX performance: K SO4--/Cl- = 2.0, K NO3-/Cl- = 5.0, K HCO3-/Cl- = 1.5, K TcO4-/Cl- = 2,000, and K U/Cl- = 50,000. These K values predict little effect of current and future influent chemistries on U removal by DOWEX, where both uranyl carbonate species and TcO 4 - are removed such that effluent concentrations meet groundwater treatment requirements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing the Mechanism of Selective Phosphate Adsorption from Wastewater Using Aqueous and Synchrotron X-ray Characterization

Ion exchange shows promise for recovering phosphate from wastewater as value-added products, but requires high phosphate selectivity to compete with conventional treatment. Hybrid anion exchange (HAIX) resins, which contain non-selective basic functional groups and selective iron oxide nanoparticles (FeOnp), can effectively remove phosphate from wastewater. However, knowledge gaps remain regarding the mechanisms of phosphate selectivity and influence of competing ions, hindering needed efforts to model adsorption dynamics and design scalable adsorption processes for varying wastewaters. To address these gaps, we integrated aqueous-phase adsorption analysis with solid-phase, synchrotron-based X-ray characterization; this integration facilitated elucidation of the distribution and speciation of iron, phosphate, and competing anions on HAIX resins. We compared a quaternary ammonium-functionalized HAIX resin (SBA) to a tertiary amine version (WBA) to determine the role of functional groups. X-ray radiography revealed differences in FeOnp speciation (goethite vs. ferrihydrite) and distribution (peripheral vs. homogeneous) between the resins, resulting in varied phosphate affinity and intraparticle diffusion resistance. Using micro-X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) and micro-X-ray absorption near-edge structure (μ-XANES) spectroscopy, we identified differences in where and how phosphate binds across resin types and wastewaters. Across wastewater compositions, FeOnp sites in WBA contribute more to phosphate adsorption than in SBA, possibly due to variations in Fe distribution and speciation. Phosphate adsorption densities calculated from quantitative μ-XRF maps matched those from aqueous analysis, demonstrating the effectiveness of this integrated approach. Altogether, results demonstrate the use of synchrotron-based X-ray characterization for investigating adsorption mechanisms and advance HAIX as a phosphate recovery technology from complex wastewaters.

Nutrient recovery↗

Incommensurate charge-stripe correlations in the kagome superconductor CsV 3 Sb 5–x Sn x

The class of AV 3 Sb 5 (A=K, Rb, Cs) kagome metals hosts unconventional charge density wave states seemingly intertwined with their low temperature superconducting phases. The nature of the coupling between these two states and the potential presence of nearby, competing charge instabilities however remain open questions. This phenomenology is strikingly highlighted by the formation of two ‘domes’ in the superconducting transition temperature upon hole-doping CsV 3 Sb 5 . Here we track the evolution of charge correlations upon the suppression of long-range charge density wave order in the first dome and into the second of the hole-doped kagome superconductor CsV 3 Sb 5–x Sn x . Initially, hole-doping drives interlayer charge correlations to become short-ranged with their periodicity diminished along the interlayer direction. Beyond the peak of the first superconducting dome, the parent charge density wave state vanishes and incommensurate, quasi-1D charge correlations are stabilized in its place. These competing, unidirectional charge correlations demonstrate an inherent electronic rotational symmetry breaking in CsV 3 Sb 5 , and reveal a complex landscape of charge correlations within its electronic phase diagram. Our data suggest an inherent 2k ƒ charge instability and competing charge orders in the AV 3 Sb 5 class of kagome superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

What Composition of High-Energy Physics Collaborations is Epistemically Optimal?

Computer simulations have recently come to the fore as a crucial tool for studying epistemic dynamics of scientific collectives. One pressing issue in big-ticket, long-term, and crowded particle physics research is the optimal organization of collaborations. This research developed a computation model of collaborations in high-energy physics and performed simulations to investigate the epistemic efficiency of groups and its dependence on the size of such groups and their composition: namely, percentages of pure, partially theoretically competent, and fully theoretically competent experimentalists. The present study reveals that in both small (100-member) and large (3000-member) groups, epistemic payoff as the measure of epistemic efficiency of collaborations is, generally, positively correlated with an increase in both the number of theoretically fully competent and pure (incompetent) experimentalists. Here, we are less certain of such conclusion in the case of the small collaborations. Although the subcommunity of experimentalists who are partially expert is not found to be immediately epistemically beneficial for collaborations, nevertheless they also crucially serve as a transitional community between the theorists and the experimentalists. Predicated on the toy model simulations, I suggest that institutions should provide measures to assist members of the latter subgroup in progressing toward developing a full theoretical expertise.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Coupled electronic and magnetic relaxation in Fe 1+y Te: direct evidence for the interaction between itinerant carriers and local moments

Iron chalcogenides are of particular interests among iron-based superconductors due to their distinct properties such as high-T c on FeSe monolayer and competing magnetic correlations in Fe 1+y Te. Here, in this work, we report unusual transport properties observed near the critical composition of Fe 1+y Te (y ~ 0.09) where competing magnetic correlations exist. The resistivity exhibits surprising temperature-dependent relaxation behavior below T N , resulting in the increase of resistivity with time for 35 K < T < T N , but the decrease of resistivity with time for 10 K < T < 35 K. Such resistivity relaxation is intimately coupled to the magnetization relaxation and can be attributed to the glassy magnetic states induced by the competing magnetic orders. These findings demonstrate strong coupling between itinerant carriers and local ordered moments in Fe 1+y Te.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Overcoming persistent challenges in putting environmental flow policy into practice: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

The implementation of environmental flows (e-flows) aims to reduce the negative impacts of hydrological alteration on freshwater ecosystems. Despite the growing attention to the importance of e-flows since the 1970s, actual implementation has lagged. Therefore, we explore the limitations in e-flows implementation, their systemic reasons, and solutions. We conducted a systematic review and a bibliometric analysis to identify peer-reviewed articles published on the topic of e-flows implementation research in the last two decades, resulting in 68 research and review papers. Co-occurrence of terms, and geographic and temporal trends were analyzed to identify the gaps in environmental water management and propose recommendations to address limitations on e-flows implementation. We identify the underlying causes and potential solutions to such challenges in environmental water management. The limitations to e-flow implementation identified were categorized into 21 classes. The most recognized limitation was the competing priorities of human uses of water (n = 29). Many secondary limitations, generally co-occurring in co-causation, were identified as limiting factors, especially for implementing more nuanced and sophisticated e-flows. The lack of adequate hydrological data (n = 24) and ecological data (n = 28) were among the most mentioned, and ultimately lead to difficulties in starting or continuing monitoring/adaptive management (n = 28) efforts. The lack of resource/capacity (n = 21), experimentation (n = 19), regulatory enforcement (n = 17), and differing authorities involved (n = 18) were also recurrent problems, driven by the deficiencies in the relative importance given to e-flows when facing other human priorities. In order to provide a clearer path for successful e-flow implementation, system mapping can be used as a starting point and general-purpose resource for understanding the sociohydrological problems, interactions, and inherited complexity of river systems. Secondly, we recommend a system analysis approach to address competing demands, especially with the use of coupled water-energy modeling tools to support decision-making when hydropower generation is involved. Such approaches can better assess the complex interactions among the hydrologic, ecological, socioeconomic, and engineering dimensions of water resource systems and their effective management. Lastly, given the complexities in environmental water allocation, implementation requires both scientific rigor and proven utility. Consequently, and where possible, we recommend a move from simplistic flow allocations to a more holistic approach informed by hydroecological principles. To ease conflicts between competing water demands, water managers can realize more 'pop per drop' by supporting key components of a flow regime that include functional attributes and processes that enhance biogeochemical cycling, structural habitat formation, and ecosystem maintenance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Respiratory energy demands and scope for demand expansion and destruction

Photosynthesis is the primary energy input to plants, but most plant metabolic processes are powered much or all of the time by ATP and NAD(P)H that come from respiratory oxidation of photosynthetically produced carbohydrates, that is, “dark respiration” (Amthor, 1994). The processes of growth, nutrient uptake and assimilation, active transport, and maintenance are thus all clients of respiration and compete for their share of a respiratory energy budget that is capped by photosynthate income. The economic principle of opportunity cost applies to these clients’ competing demands: spending respiratory energy on process A means missing the benefit of investing that energy in process B (Mahmoudabadi et al., 2019). This principle is key to assessing prospects for crop improvement by metabolic engineering. As de Lorenzo (2015) put it: “metabolism…frames and ultimately resolves whether a given genetic program (existing…or engineered) can be deployed or not.” Foreign or reconfigured native processes bolted on to a crop-plant’s metabolic chassis must compete for respiratory energy with native ones without crashing the energy economy. A proviso on plant carbon budgets is that photosynthetic carbon fixation (“source activity”) can in certain cases increase to meet increased carbon demand (“sink activity”), that is, budget envelopes are not always fixed (Smith et al., 2018). However, as there is some consensus that productivity is most often limited or co-limited by carbon supply (Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Körner, 2015; Sonnewald and Fernie, 2018), we make this our basal assumption in the analyses below.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ground-state degeneracy and complex magnetism of geometrically frustrated Gd 2 Ir 0.97 Si 2.97

We report a new triangular-lattice intermetallic compound Gd 2 Ir 0.97 Si 2.97 was successfully synthesized as single phase by deliberately introducing vacancies. Theoretical analysis suggests that the ground state is competing with several low-energy spin configurations due to magnetic frustration on a nearly ideal triangular lattice. Despite a number of competing magnetic states, the compound exhibits long-range antiferromagnetic order at16K, a long-range ferrimagnetic transition at 6.5 K, and a reentrant cluster-glass transition below T f ~ 3K. The complex magnetism in the compound could be correlated with competing antiferromagnetic and ferrimagnetic structures predicted theoretically.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Comparative study of the superconductivity in the Holstein and optical Su-Schrieffer-Heeger models

Theoretical studies suggest that Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-like electron-phonon (e-ph) interactions can mediate high-temperature bipolaronic superconductivity that is robust against repulsive electron-electron interactions. Here we present a comparative analysis of the pairing and competing charge/bond correlations in the two-dimensional Holstein and optical Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) models using numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo. We find that the SSH interactions support light bipolarons and strong superconducting correlations out to relatively large values of the e-ph coupling λ and densities near half-filling, while the Holstein interaction does not due to the formation of heavy bipolarons and competing charge-density-wave order. We further find that the Holstein and SSH models have comparable pairing correlations in the weak coupling limit for carrier concentrations < n > <<1, where competing orders and polaronic effects are absent. These results support the proposal that SSH (bi)polarons can support superconductivity to larger values of λ in comparison to the Holstein polaron, but that the resulting T c gains are small in the weak coupling limit. We also find that the SSH model's pairing correlations are suppressed after including a weak on-site Hubbard repulsion. Furthermore, these results have important implications for identifying and engineering bipolaronic superconductivity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Design of a Compact Dry Cooler With an Aluminum Heat Exchanger Core for a Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Is Evaluated for a Concentrating Solar Power Application

Abstract As the supercritical CO2 power cycle develops and the component technologies mature, there is still a need to reduce the associated capital and operating costs to maintain a competitive levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in order to enter the market. When considering concentrating solar power (CSP) coupled with an sCO2 power block and sensible thermal storage, the technology presents a clean source for utility-scale power generation to support baseload or peak-load electrical demand. However, the LCOE of the technology is still considered higher than the competing technologies and should be reduced to better compete in the market; 2030 targets for dispatchable solar plants are 5¢/kWh for baseload CSP and 10¢/kWh for peaker plants, as set by the United States Department of Energy. In response to this need, this study is targeting improvements in the power cycle precooler to reduce power block contribution to LCOE. This study considers a dry cooler, as CSP plants are sensitive to water consumption because many installations are slated for remote or arid locations where solar irradiance is very high, but water is scarce. Furthermore, the power block footprint for an sCO2 system is quite compact, especially as compared to a steam cycle. Therefore, there is interest in installing a more compact dry cooler that is proportional to the reduced footprint sCO2 power block, while conventional dry coolers are an order of magnitude larger. The competing goals of size, performance, and cost were considered in this study to develop a compact dry cooler that can easily be packaged with the power block, significantly reducing the installation and transport cost compared to the current state of the art, while maintaining or improving upon the heat transfer performance and impact on plant LCOE. This paper details the high-level findings of a large dry cooler sensitivity study for design point selection, design of the compact dry cooler, expected year-round performance for the dry cooler and the power cycle, and the predicted LCOE for a 30-year plant life. It was found that an aluminum heat exchanger core can be suitably designed to meet the pressure and temperature requirements for a precooler in an sCO2 recompression Brayton cycle. The dry cooler assembly was found to have improved heat transfer performance, allowing for increased cycle efficiencies and a reduced plant LCOE. When coupled with a centrifugal blower and compact transition duct, the dry cooler assembly was able to reduce the installation footprint by over 50%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗