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DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of the virial black hole mass with conformal prediction

Precise measurements of the black hole mass are essential to gain insight on the black hole and host galaxy co-evolution. A direct measure of the black hole mass is often restricted to nearest galaxies and instead, an indirect method using the single-epoch virial black hole mass estimation is used for objects at high redshifts. However, this method is subjected to biases and uncertainties as it is reliant on the scaling relation from a small sample of local active galactic nuclei. In this study, we propose the application of conformalized quantile regression (CQR) to quantify the uncertainties of the black hole predictions in a machine learning setting. We compare CQR with various prediction interval techniques and demonstrated that CQR can provide a more useful prediction interval indicator. In contrast to baseline approaches for prediction interval estimation, we show that the CQR method provides prediction intervals that adjust to the black hole mass and its related properties. That is it yields a tighter constraint on the prediction interval (hence more certain) for a larger black hole mass, and accordingly, bright and broad spectral line width source. Using a combination of neural network model and CQR framework, the recovered virial black hole mass predictions and uncertainties are comparable to those measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The code is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Arctic LDRD project: What happened?

This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model ensembles (E3SM, CESM-CAM, CESM-WACCM and CESM-DPLE), comparing them with observations. We then applied a machine-learning approach using copulas to produce joint probabilities of adverse conditions along potential shipping transit routes through the Arctic. Here we compare and contrast the different models and examine the utility of the copula approach applied to these data sets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of four learning-based methods for predicting groundwater redox status

Knowing the location where groundwater denitrification occurs, or by proxy the groundwater redox status (oxic, mixed, and anoxic), is valuable information for assessing and managing potential agricultural land-use impacts on freshwater quality. We compare the efficacy of supervised (Linear Discriminant Analysis LDA; Boosted Regression Trees, BRT; and Random Forest, RF) and unsupervised (Modified Self-Organizing Map, MSOM) learning-based methods to predict groundwater redox status in the agriculturally dominated Tasman, Waikato, and Wellington regions of New Zealand. Thresholds applied to regional groundwater-quality samples provide redox status variables and learn heuristics constrained by these variables and applied to spatial factors (climate, elevation, geologic, hydrology soils, and well depth) identify optimal sets of regional predictor variables. A split-sample approach is used to train and test the learning methods ability to predict redox status using the optimal predictor variables. Overall, the supervised methods demonstrate a prediction bias toward oxic conditions and inability to perform statistically well when using independent regional data; for example, consider kappa statistics for BRT (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.38, Wellington: 0.17), RF (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.47, Wellington: 0.17 and LDA (Tasman: 0.46, Waikato: 0.32, Wellington: 0.17). By contrast, the unsupervised method performs statistically well when predicting oxic, mixed, and anoxic conditions and corresponding depths when using independent regional data; for example, consider MSOM kappa statistics for Tasman: 0.78, Waikato: 0.80, Wellington: 0.76. The unsupervised learning method provides the added benefits of being (1) able to combine predictions into 3D regional anoxic probability plots for interpreting the spatial influence of paleosols and groundwater flowpaths on redox status, and (2) readily extended to map 3D redox status across New Zealand and other countries despite data bias and sparsity.

machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, booste↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recent advances and applications of deep learning methods in materials science

Deep learning (DL) is one of the fastest-growing topics in materials data science, with rapidly emerging applications spanning atomistic, image-based, spectral, and textual data modalities. DL allows analysis of unstructured data and automated identification of features. The recent development of large materials databases has fueled the application of DL methods in atomistic prediction in particular. In contrast, advances in image and spectral data have largely leveraged synthetic data enabled by high-quality forward models as well as by generative unsupervised DL methods. In this article, we present a high-level overview of deep learning methods followed by a detailed discussion of recent developments of deep learning in atomistic simulation, materials imaging, spectral analysis, and natural language processing. For each modality we discuss applications involving both theoretical and experimental data, typical modeling approaches with their strengths and limitations, and relevant publicly available software and datasets. We conclude the review with a discussion of recent cross-cutting work related to uncertainty quantification in this field and a brief perspective on limitations, challenges, and potential growth areas for DL methods in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

You Only Look Once v5 and Multi-Template Matching for Small-Crack Defect Detection on Metal Surfaces

This paper compares the performance of Deep Learning (DL) and multi-template matching (MTM) models for detecting small defects. DL models extract distinguishing features of objects but require a large dataset of images. In contrast, alternative computer vision techniques like MTM need a relatively small dataset. The lack of large datasets for small metal-surface defects has inhibited the adoption of automation in small-defect detection in remanufacturing settings. This motivated this preliminary study to compare template-based approaches, like MTM, with feature-based approaches, such as DL models, for small-defect detection on an initial laboratory and remanufacturing industry dataset. This study used You Only Look Once v5 (YOLOv5) as the DL model and compared its performance against the MTM model for small-crack detection. The findings of our preliminary investigation are as follows: (i) YOLOv5 demonstrated higher performance than MTM in detecting small cracks; (ii) an extra-large variant of YOLOv5 outperformed a small-size variant; (iii) the size and object variety of the data are crucial in achieving robust pre-trained weights for use in transfer learning; and (iv) enhanced image resolution contributes to precise object detection.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid machine-learning approach for analysis of methane hydrate formation dynamics in porous media with synchrotron CT imaging

Fast multi-phase processes in methane hydrate bearing samples pose a challenge for quantitative micro-computed tomography study and experiment steering due to complex tomographic data analysis involving time-consuming segmentation procedures. This is because of the sample's multi-scale structure, which changes over time, low contrast between solid and fluid materials, and the large amount of data acquired during dynamic processes. Here, a hybrid approach is proposed for the automatic segmentation of tomographic data from time-resolved imaging of methane gas-hydrate formation in sandy granular media, which includes a deep-learning 3D U-Net model. To prepare a training dataset for the 3D U-Net, a technique to automate data labeling based on sample-specific information about the mineral matrix immobility and occasional fluid movement in pores is proposed. Automatic segmentation allowed for studying properties of the hydrate growth in pores, as well as dynamic processes such as incremental flow and redistribution of pore brine. Results of the quantitative analysis showed that for typical gas-hydrate stability parameters (100 bar methane pressure, 7°C temperature) the rate of formation is slow (less than 1% per hour), after which the surface area of contact between brine and gas increases, resulting in faster formation (2.5% per hour). Hydrate growth reaches the saturation point after 11 h of the experiment. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed segmentation scheme in on-the-fly automatic data analysis and experiment steering with zooming to regions of interest is demonstrated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transferring a Molecular Foundation Model for Polymer Property Predictions

Transformer-based large language models have remarkable potential to accelerate design optimization for applications such as drug development and material discovery. Self-supervised pretraining of transformer models requires large-scale data sets, which are often sparsely populated in topical areas such as polymer science. Further, state-of-the-art approaches for polymers conduct data augmentation to generate additional samples but unavoidably incur extra computational costs. In contrast, large-scale open-source data sets are available for small molecules and provide a potential solution to data scarcity through transfer learning. In this work, we show that using transformers pretrained on small molecules and fine-tuned on polymer properties achieves comparable accuracy to those trained on augmented polymer data sets for a series of benchmark prediction tasks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum error mitigation by hidden inverses protocol in superconducting quantum devices

We present a method to improve the convergence of variational algorithms based on hidden inverses (HIs) to mitigate coherent errors. In the context of error mitigation, this means replacing the hardware implementation of certain Hermitian gates with their inverses. Doing so results in noise cancellation and a more resilient quantum circuit. This approach improves performance in a variety of two-qubit error models where the noise operator also inverts with the gate inversion. We apply the mitigation scheme on superconducting quantum processors running the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm to find the H 2 ground-state energy. When implemented on superconducting hardware we find that the mitigation scheme effectively reduces the energy fluctuations in the parameter learning path in VQE, reducing the number of iterations for a converged value. We also provide a detailed numerical simulation of VQE performance under different noise models and explore how HIs and randomized compiling affect the underlying loss landscape of the learning problem. These simulations help explain our experimental hardware outcomes, helping to connect lower-level gate performance to application-specific behavior in contrast to metrics like fidelity which often do not provide an intuitive insight into observed high level performance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding machine learning approaches for partial differential equations

Recent works in computational physics have been successful in the super-resolution of numerical solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs) via neural networks. In this paper we explore the possibilities and limitations of the data-driven discretization approach implemented by Bar-Sinai et. al., while contrasting it with a simpler yet weaker approach utilizing the nangs Python library. The results demonstrate what neural network parameters optimize accuracy and performance, as well as what conditions on PDEs are necessary to maintain convergence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

ROS Hexapod

As an intern project for NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), my job was to familiarize myself and operate a Robotics Operating System (ROS). The project outcome converted existing software assets into ROS using nodes, enabling a robotic Hexapod to communicate to be functional and controlled by an existing PlayStation 3 (PS3) controller. Existing control algorithms and current libraries have no ROS capabilities within the Hexapod C++ source code when the internship started, but that has changed throughout my internship. Conversion of C++ codes to ROS enabled existing code to be compatible with ROS, and is now controlled using an existing PS3 controller. Furthermore, my job description was to design ROS messages and script programs that enabled assets to participate in the ROS ecosystem by subscribing and publishing messages. Software programming source code is written in directories using C++. Testing of software assets included compiling code within the Linux environment using a terminal. The terminal ran the code from a directory. Several problems occurred while compiling code and the code would not compile. So modifying code to where C++ can read the source code were made. Once the code was compiled and ran, the code was uploaded to Hexapod and then controlled by a PS3 controller. The project outcome has the Hexapod fully functional and compatible with ROS and operates using the PlayStation 3 controller. In addition, an open source software (IDE) Arduino board will be integrated into the ecosystem with designing circuitry on a breadboard to add additional behavior with push buttons, potentiometers and other simple elements in the electrical circuitry. Other projects with the Arduino will be a GPS module, digital clock that will run off 22 satellites to show accurate real time using a GPS signal and an internal patch antenna to communicate with satellites. In addition, this internship experience has led me to pursue myself to learn coding more efficiently and effectively to write, subscribe and publish my own source code in different programming languages. With some familiarity with software programming, it will enhance my skills in the electrical engineering field. In contrast, my experience here at JSC with the Simulation and Graphics Branch (ER7) has led me to take my coding skill to be more proficient to increase my knowledge in software programming, and also enhancing my skills in ROS. This knowledge will be taken back to my university to implement coding in a school project that will use source coding and ROS to work on the PR2 robot which is controlled by ROS software. My skills learned here will be used to integrate messages to subscribe and publish ROS messages to a PR2 robot. The PR2 robot will be controlled by an existing PS3 controller by changing C++ coding to subscribe and publish messages to ROS. Overall the skills that were obtained here will not be lost, but increased.

Davis, Kirsch↗

NASA NTRS2017

Neural Predictors of Visuomotor Adaptation Rate and Multi-Day Savings

Recent studies of sensorimotor adaptation have found that individual differences in task-based functional brain activation are associated with the rate of adaptation and savings at subsequent sessions. However, few studies to date have investigated offline neural predictors of adaptation and multi-day savings. In the present study, we explore whether individual differences in the rate of visuomotor adaptation and multi-day savings are associated with differences in resting state functional connectivity and gray matter volume. Thirty-four participants performed a manual adaptation task during two separate test sessions, on average 9 days apart. We found that resting state functional connectivity strength between sensorimotor, anterior cingulate, and temporoparietal areas of the brain was a significant predictor of adaptation rate during the early, cognitive phase of practice. In contrast, default mode network functional connectivity strength was found to predict late adaptation rate and savings on day two, which suggests that these behaviors may rely on overlapping processes. We also found that gray matter volume in temporoparietal and occipital regions was a significant predictor of early learning, whereas gray matter volume in superior posterior regions of the cerebellum was a significant predictor of late adaptation. The results from this study suggest that offline neural predictors of early adaptation facilitate the cognitive mechanisms of sensorimotor adaptation, with support from by the involvement of temporoparietal and cingulate networks. In contrast, the neural predictors of late adaptation and savings, including the default mode network and the cerebellum, likely support the storage and modification of newly acquired sensorimotor representations. These findings provide novel insights into the neural processes associated with individual differences in sensorimotor adaptation.

Cassady, Kaitlin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational toolkit for predicting thickness of 2D materials using machine learning and autogenerated dataset by large language model

The thickness of 2D materials not only plays a crucial role in determining the performance of nanoelectronic and optoelectronic devices but also introduces complexities in predicting volume-dependent properties, such as energy storage capacity, due to the intrinsic vacuum within these materials. Although a plethora of experimental techniques, including but not limited to optical contrast, Raman spectroscopy, nonlinear optical spectroscopy, near-field optical imaging, and hyperspectral imaging, facilitate the measurement of 2D material thickness, comprehensive data for many materials remain elusive. Over the past decade, the exponential proliferation of 2D materials and their heterostructures has outstripped the capabilities of conventional experimental and computational approaches. In this evolving landscape, machine learning (ML) has emerged as an indispensable tool, offering a scalable approach to augment these traditional methodologies. Addressing the critical gap, we introduce THICK2D—Thickness Hierarchy Inference and Calculation Kit for 2D Materials. This Python-based computational framework harnesses an autogenerated thickness database, developed using large language models, and advanced ML algorithms to facilitate the rapid and scalable estimation of material thickness, relying solely on crystallographic data. To demonstrate the utility and robustness of THICK2D, we successfully used the toolkit to predict the thickness of more than 8000 2D-based materials, sourced from two extensive 2D materials databases. THICK2D is disseminated as an open-source utility, accessible on GitHub at https://github.com/gmp007/THICK2D, and archived on Zenodo at https://10.5281/zenodo.11216648.

Ekuma, Chinedu E. (ORCID:0000000258527556)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Learning Many-Body Hamiltonians with Heisenberg-Limited Scaling

Learning a many-body Hamiltonian from its dynamics is a fundamental problem in physics. Here, in this Letter, we propose the first algorithm to achieve the Heisenberg limit for learning an interacting N-qubit local Hamiltonian. After a total evolution time of $\mathscr{O}$⁡(ε –1 ), the proposed algorithm can efficiently estimate any parameter in the N-qubit Hamiltonian to ε error with high probability. Our algorithm uses ideas from quantum simulation to decouple the unknown N-qubit Hamiltonian H into noninteracting patches and learns H using a quantum-enhanced divide-and-conquer approach. The proposed algorithm is robust against state preparation and measurement error, does not require eigenstates or thermal states, and only uses polylog⁡(ε –1 ) experiments. In contrast, the best existing algorithms require $\mathscr{O}$⁡⁡(ε –2 ) experiments and total evolution time. We prove a matching lower bound to establish the asymptotic optimality of our algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking: An overview of instruments, methods, data, and applications

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking (U-RadIT) use state-of-the-art ionizing particle and light sources to experimentally study sub-nanosecond transients or dynamic processes in physics, chemistry, biology, geology, materials science and other fields. These processes are fundamental to modern technologies and applications, such as nuclear fusion energy, advanced manufacturing, communication, and green transportation, which often involve one mole or more atoms and elementary particles, and thus are challenging to compute by using the first principles of quantum physics or other forward models. One of the central problems in U-RadIT is to optimize information yield through, e.g. high-luminosity X-ray and particle sources, efficient imaging and tracking detectors, novel methods to collect data, and large-bandwidth online and offline data processing, regulated by the underlying physics, statistics, and computing power. We review and highlight recent progress in: (a.) Detectors such as high-speed complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) cameras, hybrid pixelated array detectors integrated with Timepix4 and other application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and digital photon detectors; (b.) U-RadIT modalities such as dynamic phase contrast imaging, dynamic diffractive imaging, and four-dimensional (4D) particle tracking; (c.) U-RadIT data and algorithms such as neural networks and machine learning, and (d.) Applications in ultrafast dynamic material science using XFELs, synchrotrons and laser-driven sources. Hardware-centric approaches to U-RadIT optimization are constrained by detector material properties, low signal-to-noise ratio, high cost and long development cycles of critical hardware components such as ASICs. Interpretation of experimental data, including comparisons with forward models, is frequently hindered by sparse measurements, model and measurement uncertainties, and noise. Alternatively, U-RadIT make increasing use of data science and machine learning algorithms, including experimental implementations of compressed sensing. Machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches, refined by physics and materials information, may also contribute significantly to data interpretation, uncertainty quantification and U-RadIT optimization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Attention-based explainability for structure–property relationships

Machine learning methods are emerging as a universal paradigm for constructing correlative structure–property relationships in materials science based on multimodal characterization. However, this necessitates the development of methods for the physical interpretability of the resulting correlative models. Here, we demonstrate the potential of attention-based neural networks for revealing structure–property relationships and the underlying physical mechanisms, using the ferroelectric properties of PbTiO3 thin films as a case study. Through the analysis of attention scores, we disentangle the influence of distinct domain patterns on the polarization switching process. The attention-based Transformer model is explored both as a direct interpretability tool and as a surrogate for explaining representations learned via unsupervised machine learning, enabling the identification of physically grounded correlations. We compare attention-derived interpretability scores with classical SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis and show that, in contrast to applications in natural language processing, attention mechanisms in materials science exhibit high efficiency in highlighting meaningful structural features.

Slautin, Boris [Independent Researcher]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solving the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem with the Koopman Operator

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, in contrast to T-ED, DED is a nonlinear, non-convex optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. We introduce a machine learning-based operator-theoretic approach for solving the DED problem efficiently. Specifically, we develop a novel discrete-time Koopman Operator (KO) formulation that embeds domain information into the structure of the KO to learn high-fidelity approximations of the generator dynamics. Using the KO approximation, the DED problem can be reformulated as a computationally tractable linear program (abbreviated DED-KO). We demonstrate the high solution quality and computational-time savings of the DED-KO model over the original DED formulation on a 9-bus test system.

King, Ethan↗