Results for “Counting statistics” — Page 13

DOE OSTI2019

Experimental Evaluation of the Fast-Neutron Passive Collar (FNPC) Performance and Comparison with Scintillation Based Collars

This report describes a new method for the verification of fresh low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel assemblies that can reduce International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection time in the field and be completely independent of operator declared burnable poison content. The passive measurement makes unattended mode operation practical, and thus provides the potential for reducing inspector time in the field for future applications. The new simplified passive neutron measurement uses the 238 U spontaneous fission in LEU fresh fuel rods to self-interrogate the 235 U mass in the neighboring rods. The measured response increases linearly with the increase in the linear density (LD) of 235 U. The relatively high efficiency of the passive neutron detector (24%) provides good statistical precision (~ 2%) for the singles, doubles, and triples counting rates in the thermal-neutron mode. The three observables makes possible multiplicity analysis so that both the 235 U LD and the effective burnable poison content can be determined independent of the operator declarations. This closes the potential diversion path of miss-declaration the burnable poison content. This report presents the detector design, the as-built system, the detector parameter measurements, the calibration, and the assay uncertainty estimates. The calibration measurements were performed using the Los Alamos Laboratory mockup PWR fuel assembly. The measurements were made in both the fastneutron mode (with Cd/Gd metal liners) and the thermal-neutron mode (no Cd/Gd liners).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Application of LANDSAT system for improving methodology for inventory and classification of wetlands

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT and aircraft data were compared for differences in absolute numbers of water bodies in the two data sets. This comparison was done using a linear regression analysis. The coefficients of determination were 0.65 and 0.74 for data of May and July, respectively. Standard statistical procedures were used to adjust the LANDSAT pond counts to actual pond numbers based on regression relationships.

Gilmer, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Blood volume changes

Red cell mass measurements on Skylab crewmembers revealed a statistically significant decrease in circulating red cells. Low reticulocyte counts at crewmember recovery indicated increased splenic removal of reticulum or decreased bone marrow production rates. After the initial loss there is at least a 30-day delay before red cell mass begins to reconstitute itself.

Johnson, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Two-sample discrimination of Poisson means

This paper presents a statistical test for detecting significant differences between two random count accumulations. The null hypothesis is that the two samples share a common random arrival process with a mean count proportional to each sample's exposure. The model represents the partition of N total events into two counts, A and B, as a sequence of N independent Bernoulli trials whose partition fraction, f, is determined by the ratio of the exposures of A and B. The detection of a significant difference is claimed when the background (null) hypothesis is rejected, which occurs when the observed sample falls in a critical region of (A, B) space. The critical region depends on f and the desired significance level, alpha. The model correctly takes into account the fluctuations in both the signals and the background data, including the important case of small numbers of counts in the signal, the background, or both. The significance can be exactly determined from the cumulative binomial distribution, which in turn can be inverted to determine the critical A(B) or B(A) contour. This paper gives efficient implementations of these tests, based on lookup tables. Applications include the detection of clustering of astronomical objects, the detection of faint emission or absorption lines in photon-limited spectroscopy, the detection of faint emitters or absorbers in photon-limited imaging, and dosimetry.

Lampton, M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Hematological measurements in rats flown on Spacelab shuttle, SL-3

Previous studies have shown that a decrease in red cell mass occurs in astronauts, and some studies indicate a leukocytosis occurs. A life science module housing young and mature rats was flown on shuttle mission Spacelab 3 (SL-3), and the results of hematology studies of flight and control rats are presented. Statistically significant increases in the hematocrit, red blood cell counts, and hemoglobin determinations, together with a mild neutrophilia and lymphopenia, were found in flight animals. No significant changes were found in bone marrow and spleen cell differentials or erythropoietin determinations. Clonal assays demonstrated an increased erythroid colony formation of flight animal bone marrow cells at erythropoietin doses of 0.02 and 1.0 U/ml but not 0.20 U/ml. These results agree with some but vary from other previously published studies. Erythropoietin assays and clonal studies were performed for the first time.

NASA Experiment Number SL3-26↗

NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated photonic Galton board and its application for photon counting

The Galton board is a desktop probability machine traditionally used to visualize the principles of statistical physics from classical particles. Here, we demonstrate a photonic Galton board that enables on-chip observation of statistics from single-photon interference. The photonic Galton board consists of a directional coupler matrix terminated by an array of superconducting nanowire detectors to provide spatiotemporal resolution. This design also allows for photon-number-resolving capability, making it suitable for high-speed photon counting. Our results demonstrate the compatibility between single-photon detector array and photonic integrated circuits, paving the way for implementing on-chip large-scale quantum optics experiments and photonic quantum computing.

Qin, Hezheng (ORCID:0009000139348800)↗

NASA NTRS1991

Measures of large-scale structure in the CfA redshift survey slices

Variations of the counts-in-cells with cell size are used here to define two statistical measures of large-scale clustering in three 6 deg slices of the CfA redshift survey. A percolation criterion is used to estimate the filling factor which measures the fraction of the total volume in the survey occupied by the large-scale structures. For the full 18 deg slice of the CfA redshift survey, f is about 0.25 + or - 0.05. After removing groups with more than five members from two of the slices, variations of the counts in occupied cells with cell size have a power-law behavior with a slope beta about 2.2 on scales from 1-10/h Mpc. Application of both this statistic and the percolation analysis to simulations suggests that a network of two-dimensional structures is a better description of the geometry of the clustering in the CfA slices than a network of one-dimensional structures. Counts-in-cells are also used to estimate at 0.3 galaxy h-squared/Mpc the average galaxy surface density in sheets like the Great Wall.

De Lapparent, Valerie↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Statistical optical link budget analysis

In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRS1990

Morphological and biochemical examination of Cosmos 1887 rat heart tissue. Part 1: Ultrastructure

Morphological changes were observed in the left ventricle of rat heart tissue from animals flown on the Cosmos 1887 biosatellite for 12.5 days. These tissues were compared to the synchronous and vivarium control hearts. While many normal myofibrils were observed, others exhibited ultrastructural alterations, i.e., damaged and irregular-shaped mitochondria and generalized myofibrillar edema. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the volume density data revealed a statistically significant increase in glycogen and a significant decrease in mitochondria compared to the synchronous and vivarium controls. Point counting indicated an increase in lipid and myeloid bodies and a decrease in microtubules, but these changes were not statistically significant. In addition, the flight animals exhibited some patchy loss of protofibrils (actin and myosin filaments) and some abnormal supercontracted myofibrils that were not seen in the controls. This study was undertaken to gain insight into the mechanistic aspects of cardiac changes in both animals and human beings as a consequence of space travel. Cardiac hypotrophy and fluid shifts have been observed after actual or simulated weightlessness and raise concerns about the functioning of the heart and circulatory system during and after travel in space.

Philpott, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Far-Ultraviolet Number Counts of Field Galaxies

The Number counts of far-ultraviolet (FUV) galaxies as a function of magnitude provide a direct statistical measure of the density and evolution of star-forming galaxies. We report on the results of measurements of the rest-frame FUV number counts computed from data of several fields including the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, the Hubble Deep Field North, and the GOODS-North and -South fields. These data were obtained from the Hubble Space Telescope Solar Blind Channel of the Advance Camera for Surveys. The number counts cover an AB magnitude range from 20-29 magnitudes, covering a total area of 15.9 arcmin'. We show that the number counts are lower than those in previous studies using smaller areas. The differences in the counts are likely the result of cosmic variance; our new data cover more area and more lines of sight than the previous studies. The slope of our number counts connects well with local FUV counts and they show good agreement with recent semi-analytical models based on dark matter "merger trees".

Voyer, Elysse N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

KaRMMa – kappa reconstruction for mass mapping

ABSTRACT We present KaRMMa, a novel method for performing mass map reconstruction from weak-lensing surveys. We employ a fully Bayesian approach with a physically motivated lognormal prior to sample from the posterior distribution of convergence maps. We test KaRMMa on a suite of dark matter N-body simulations with simulated DES Y1-like shear observations. We show that KaRMMa outperforms the basic Kaiser–Squires mass map reconstruction in two key ways: (1) our best map point estimate has lower residuals compared to Kaiser–Squires; and (2) unlike the Kaiser–Squires reconstruction, the posterior distribution of KaRMMa maps is nearly unbiased in all summary statistics we considered, namely: one-point and two-point functions, and peak/void counts. In particular, KaRMMa successfully captures the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of κ values in the simulated maps. We further demonstrate that the KaRMMa posteriors correctly characterize the uncertainty in all summary statistics we considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of short-lived fission product yields from photofission of 238 U using 13.0 MeV monoenergetic photons

Photon-induced fission product yield (FPY) measurements were conducted on the isotope 238U. Fission was induced using Eγ = 13.0 MeV monoenergetic photons produced by the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory’s (TUNL’s) High Intensity γ-ray Source (HIγS) facility. Short-lived FPYs were measured by performing cyclic activation of the sample using a rapid target transfer system. Following activation, the 238U target was rapidly (0.4 s) transferred to a counting station consisting of two well-shielded high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors. The irradiation-counting cycle was repeated until the summed data had sufficient statistical accuracy. Twenty-eight unique fission products with half-lives ranging from 1 s to 450 s were identified, and their cumulative FPYs determined. Furthermore, the results are compared with previous independent FPY measurements using inverse kinematics. Good agreement between the data sets is found despite the different excitation energy distributions of the fissioning nucleus in the experiments.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for squarks and gluinos in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV and 13.6 TeV in events with $\tau$-leptons, jets and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector

A search for R-parity-conserving supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets and at least one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton is presented. Both gluino and squark pair production are considered, with the cascade decay of each gluino or squark producing either a $\tau$-slepton or a $\tau$-sneutrino. Three channels are examined, requiring either exactly one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton and no other leptons, exactly one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton and at least one other lepton, or two or more hadronically decaying $\tau$-leptons. Analyses in the three channels are optimised independently and combined statistically. Two separate analysis strategies, either a cut-and-count or machine-learning approach, are used. The search uses 140 and 51.8 of pp collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider during 2015–2018 at TeV and 2022–2023 at TeV, respectively. Gluino masses below 2.25 TeV and squark masses up to 1.7 TeV are excluded

Aad, G. [CNRS/IN2P3] (ORCID:0000000266654934)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Files for 'The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure'

This data set includes modeling results from The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, including region-specific (i.e., national, state, and core-based statistical area cities and towns) electric vehicle supply equipment port count requirements in 2025 and 2030 for multiple scenarios described in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗