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At least 235 records · Page 13

Feasibility of Adding Twitter Data to Aid Drought Depiction: Case Study in Colorado

The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones

Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress, induce anomalies in ecosystem–atmosphere CO 2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and R eco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, R eco , and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30-year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO 2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they downregulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction in the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and R eco and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of R eco over time turned from an initial increase to a downregulation after about 2 weeks. This confirms earlier theories that not only the magnitude but also the duration of an extreme event determines its impact. Our study corroborates the results of several local site-level case studies but as a novelty generalizes these findings on the global scale. Specifically, we find that the different response functions of the two antipodal land–atmosphere fluxes GPP and R eco can also result in increasing NEP during certain extreme conditions. Apparently counterintuitive findings of this kind bear great potential for scrutinizing the mechanisms implemented in state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models and provide a benchmark for future model development and testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coordination of rooting, xylem, and stomatal strategies explains the response of conifer forest stands to multi-year drought in the southern Sierra Nevada of California

Abstract. Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance that impacts plant communities and feeds back into climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between aboveground and belowground plant hydraulic traits and their role in governing plant responses to drought are not fully understood. In this study, we use a model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator in a configuration that includes plant hydraulics (FATES-Hydro), to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought in comparison with observations at a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows the following. Deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in normal years, and deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. Risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but they also lead to a high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. For a given stand density, stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem-level fluxes. Our study highlights the significance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies to represent drought impacts on plants and consequent feedbacks in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

SMAP L4 Assessment of the US Northern Plains 2017 Flash Drought

A rapidly developing "flash drought" occurred over the US Northern Plains in the summer of 2017, spurred by unusually high temperatures and strong evaporative demand. The impacts of the drought included widespread reductions in rangeland and agricultural productivity that cascaded into significant economic losses. Here, we used satellite information from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to clarify the nature and impact of the drought on regional vegetation growth. The model enhanced SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM) and Carbon (L4C) products were used with other ancillary data to examine spatial and seasonal anomalies in surface to root zone soil moisture and vegetation productivity (GPP). We find that the flash drought was triggered by a mid-July heat wave, conditioned by exceptionally low spring rainfall. The drought resulted in anomalous low soil moisture levels and regional GPP collapse, coinciding with severe (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions indicated from the US Drought Monitor. The SMAP L4C GPP anomalies closely tracked reported county-level crop production anomalies for the major regional crop types, indicating generally larger productivity decline in managed croplands than surrounding natural areas. The SMAP L4 global products provide an effective indicator of vegetation growth changes and moisture-related restrictions on ecosystem productivity that are complementary with more traditional drought assessment tools.

GPP↗

Prediction skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains flash drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models

Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Anthony M DeAngelis↗

Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Drought Forecasts

Research in meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has seen growth in recent years. Concurrent with this, demand for seasonal drought forecasting has risen. While there is obvious synergy between these fields, S2S meteorological forecasting has typically focused on low resolution global models, while the development of drought can be sensitive to the local expression of weather anomalies and their interaction with local surface properties and processes. This suggests that downscaling might play an important role in the application of meteorological S2S forecasts to skillful forecasting of drought. Here, we apply the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) algorithm to downscale meteorological hindcasts from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global S2S forecast system. Downscaled meteorological fields are then applied to drive offline simulations with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) to forecast United States Drought Monitor (USDM) style drought indicators derived from simulated surface hydrology variables. We compare the representation of drought in these downscaled hindcasts to hindcasts that are not downscaled, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset as an observational reference. We find that downscaling using GARD improves hindcasts of temperature and temperature anomalies, but the results for precipitation are mixed and generally small. Overall, GARD downscaling led to improved hindcast skill for total drought across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), and improvements were greatest for extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought categories.

Ryan A Zamora↗

Global Assessment of Drought Characteristics in the Anthropocene

Contemporary understanding of the impacts of climate change on global drought characteristics (e.g., intensities, extents) is still limited and not well understood. This knowledge is critical because projected changes in climate are expected to impact on future water availability as well as influence decisions on how water resources are allocated. The main aim of this study is to improve understanding of drought characteristics (extents and duration) in the Anthropocene where rapid changes in the environment are caused by the composite influence of human activities and climate change. Multi-scale earth observation data (1980 - 2020) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, which incorporate the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2040 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100) are used to assess these characteristics as well as identify climatic hotspots where changes in drought characteristics could drive groundwater hydrology. Results show that towards the end of the 21st century, global land areas under drought will significantly decrease but their durations will not. Generally, there is evidence of significant decline in the proportion of areas that will experience various drought intensities (moderate, severe and extreme drought) in the future and for each category, drought affected areas will not reach 30% on average. Moreover, some regions are potential hotspots of climate–groundwater interactions where drought events could directly impact on groundwater. This is because of the varying degree of strong correlations (positive and negative) between climate and groundwater data in some areas (e.g., Australia, Europe, Southern Africa, Asia). The relatively strong negative correlations in some of these hotspots are indicative of the presence of considerable lags, that could be caused by aridity as well as human groundwater footprints.

Christopher E Ndehedehe↗

Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Drought Stress on Sorghum bicolor Yield, Deconstruction, and Microbial Conversion Determined in a Feedstocks-to-Fuels Pipeline

Sorghum is an attractive feedstock for biobased fuel and chemical production because it is familiar to farmers, naturally drought tolerant, and versatile as a food, feed, and fuel crop. Although sorghum is a promising feedstock, particularly in regions that experience drought stress, little is known about how drought conditions impact the ease of conversion of sorghum to fuels and products. This study combines agronomic field trials with a high-throughput experimental pipeline to explore the field performance and liquid biofuel (bisabolene) yields resulting from three sorghum types (photosensitive forage sorghum, optimized grain sorghum, and drought-resistant grain sorghum) grown under pre- and postflowering water limitations in two different California locations. Multiple drought treatments are compared to the control, as the timing (preflowering versus postflowering) of drought stress elicits different survival strategies and corresponding impacts on yield and composition. Forage-type sorghum maintained the highest biomass yields across all irrigation conditions and locations. Glucose and xylose yields resulting from ionic liquid pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification were not significantly impacted by irrigation treatments but differed by location and genotype. However, Rhodosporidium toruloides grown on the resulting plant hydrolysates unexpectedly produced higher titers of bisabolene for drought-stressed sorghum samples regardless of genotype.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Root exudate composition reflects drought severity gradient in blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis)

Abstract Plant survival during environmental stress greatly affects ecosystem carbon (C) cycling, and plant–microbe interactions are central to plant stress survival. The release of C-rich root exudates is a key mechanism plants use to manage their microbiome, attracting beneficial microbes and/or suppressing harmful microbes to help plants withstand environmental stress. However, a critical knowledge gap is how plants alter root exudate concentration and composition under varying stress levels. In a greenhouse study, we imposed three drought treatments (control, mild, severe) on blue grama ( Bouteloua gracilis Kunth Lag. Ex Griffiths), and measured plant physiology and root exudate concentration and composition using GC–MS, NMR, and FTICR. With increasing drought severity, root exudate total C and organic C increased concurrently with declining predawn leaf water potential and photosynthesis. Root exudate composition mirrored the physiological gradient of drought severity treatments. Specific compounds that are known to alter plant drought responses and the rhizosphere microbiome mirrored the drought severity-induced root exudate compositional gradient. Despite reducing C uptake, these plants actively invested C to root exudates with increasing drought severity. Patterns of plant physiology and root exudate concentration and composition co-varied along a gradient of drought severity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global variations in critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation

ABSTRACT Identifying the thresholds of drought that, if crossed, suppress vegetation functioning is vital for accurate quantification of how land ecosystems respond to climate variability and change. We present a globally applicable framework to identify drought thresholds for vegetation responses to different levels of known soil-moisture deficits using four remotely sensed vegetation proxies spanning 2001–2018. The thresholds identified represent critical inflection points for changing vegetation responses from highly resistant to highly vulnerable in response to drought stress, and as a warning signal for substantial vegetation impacts. Drought thresholds varied geographically, with much lower percentiles of soil-moisture anomalies in vegetated areas covered by more forests, corresponding to a comparably stronger capacity to mitigate soil water deficit stress in forested ecosystems. Generally, those lower thresholds are detected in more humid climates. State-of-the-art land models, however, overestimated thresholds of soil moisture (i.e. overestimating drought impacts), especially in more humid areas with higher forest covers and arid areas with few forest covers. Based on climate model projections, we predict that the risk of vegetation damage will increase by the end of the twenty-first century in some hotspots like East Asia, Europe, Amazon, southern Australia and eastern and southern Africa. Our data-based results will inform projections on future drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provide an effective tool for drought management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

California↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems

Here, the occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterraneantype ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits and compound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrubland formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire-drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire-drought (synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence-as opposed to chronic dryness-can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the longterm coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrubland expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire-drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental warming amplified opposite impacts of drought vs. wet extremes on ecosystem carbon cycle in a tallgrass prairie

Climate warming is leading to greater precipitation variability, resulting in increased frequency and intensity of both drought and wet extremes. However, how these extreme events interact with climate warming and hay-harvest in grasslands to impact ecosystem functions has not yet been well explored. In this study, we took advantage of a long-term experiment to examine how climate warming and clipping (i.e., mimicking hay harvest) regulated impacts of naturally occurring drought and wet extremes on ecosystem CO 2 fluxes of a tallgrass prairie in the Great Plains, USA. Warming resulted in net ecosystem carbon release (i.e., positive net ecosystem CO 2 exchange, NEE) in the extreme drought year of 2011, but significantly enhanced net carbon uptake in the extremely wet year of 2015 in comparison with NEE in normal years. Warming-induced carbon release in the drought year was due to significantly enhanced ecosystem respiration (ER) from mid-summer to early-autumn, whereas warming-enhanced NEE in the wet year was due to an increase in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) compared to those in normal years. Drought diminished warming-induced increases in ANPP to about one sixth of that in the wet year in the unclipped plots. Interestingly, clipping offset the drought-mediated ecosystem carbon loss by increasing GPP and weakened the wet-enhanced ANPP. Altogether, our results suggest that a future, warmer climate may exacerbate carbon losses in terrestrial ecosystems during drought extremes but stimulate the ecosystem carbon sink under wet extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal community responses to drought and nitrogen fertilization in switchgrass stands

Anthropogenic global change is increasing the severity and frequency of abiotic stresses such as drought that are likely to affect soil communities. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) play important roles in many soil processes, so it is important to understand how drought affects AMF biodiversity. This is especially relevant in agricultural systems where crops rely on AMF associations for water and nutrient uptake, and where management decisions such as crop selection and fertilizer application may influence how the AMF community responds to drought. In this study, we examined the effects of reduced precipitation and nitrogen fertilization on AMF richness, community composition, and root and soil colonization in monocultures of two cultivars of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) grown for bioenergy feedstock. We conducted a two-year field experiment using rain-out shelters to manipulate precipitation in mature stands of switchgrass growing in a long-term nitrogen fertilization (0 or 56 kg N ha –1 ) experiment at the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research site in Michigan, USA. We expected that AMF richness and colonization would decrease due to drought, as predicted by the stress exclusion hypothesis. Contrary to our expectations, we found that drought stress increased AMF species richness in fertilized plots by 15%; there was no effect of drought on AMF richness in unfertilized plots. Drought also significantly altered AMF community composition, primarily due to increases in Rhizophagus taxa abundance, and reduced AMF root colonization in switchgrass by 6%. We also found variation in AMF richness and colonization across switchgrass cultivars as well as sampling dates. Furthermore, the changes in AMF richness and composition that we observed in this study may have implications for perennial bioenergy feedstock selection and management as changes in AMF communities may feedback to affect host plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A tomato proline-, lysine-, and glutamic-rich type gene SpPKE1 positively regulates drought stress tolerance

Highlights: • Overexpression of SpPKE1 confers tomato and tobacco tolerance to drought stress. • SpPKE1 modulate the expressions of stress-responsive genes. • SpPKE1 interacts with an F-box protein in yeast. Plant abiotic resistance in cultivated species features limited variability. Using genes of wild species serves as a valid approach for improving abiotic resistance of cultivated plants. In this study, we uncovered a previously uncharacterized proline-, lysine-, and glutamic-rich protein gene (SpPKE1), which was isolated from drought-resistant wild tomato species Solanum pennellii (LA0716). When M82, which is a drought-sensitive tomato cultivar, was engineered to overexpress SpPKE1, its tolerance under drought stress was significantly improved by the accumulation of more chlorophyll, proline, and limited malondialdehyde compared with that in RNA interference (RNAi)-suppression lines, which were more sensitive than the wild-type plants. Several ion transporter genes, abiotic-related transcriptional factors, and reactive oxygen species-scavenging genes were upregulated in PKE1 overexpression (OE) lines but downregulated in RNAi plants. OE of SpPKE1 enhanced drought tolerance in tobacco. Screening results of yeast two-hybrid protein–protein interaction revealed that SpPKE1 can bind to an F-box protein that plays an important role in plant drought resistance. We posited that PKE1 enhanced drought tolerance by modulating the expressions of stress-responsive genes and interacting with the F-box protein.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗