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DOE OSTI2024

Causes of and Solutions to Wind Speed Bias in NREL's 2020 Offshore Wind Resource Assessment for the California Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

This report provides the results of a detailed analysis into the causes of high wind speed bias in the 20-year wind resource data set for offshore California the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released in 2020, herein called CA20. The data set was developed using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Notably, no floating lidars were available at the time in offshore California to validate offshore hub-height wind speeds. In late 2020, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) deployed two floating lidars in the California outer continental shelf (OCS), near the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) call areas of Humboldt and Morro Bay. Using these observations through 2021, NREL found considerable bias in modeled hub-height winds at both locations: up to +2 m/s at Humboldt over a 6-month period, and up to +1 m/s at Morro Bay over a one-year period. Upon the discovery of this bias, the Department of Energy (DOE) and BOEM funded NREL and PNNL to investigate the causes of, impacts of, and solutions to the bias in the CA20 data set. This report summarizes the findings of this research. We first investigated whether different WRF model setups could lead to reduced bias. We found that the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme - which controls the vertical turbulent mixing of momentum, heat, and moisture in the lowermost part of the atmosphere - greatly affected hub-height wind speeds in the region. Specifically, switching from the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) scheme used in CA20 (and widely used across a range of operational and research weather models) to the less common Yonsei University (YSU) scheme nearly eliminated the bias at both the Humboldt and Morro Bay lidar locations. The large discrepancy between the MYNN- and YSU-modeled hub-height winds pointed towards the role of atmospheric stability. In general, PBL schemes agree well in conditions of high turbulence and mixing, normally referred to as "unstable" conditions. By contrast, PBL schemes start to diverge in "stable" conditions, where turbulence is low and thermal stratification (i.e., higher temperature air sitting on top of colder air) greatly suppresses vertical mixing. Under such conditions, winds aloft can decouple from surface effects and greatly accelerate, causing high wind speeds at hub-height and frequent low-level jets (LLJs). We determined that these stable conditions are in fact dominant in offshore California. The region is characterized by moderate-to-extreme stable stratification with a LLJ on average around 200 meters above sea-level. To our knowledge, no wind energy area globally has as strongly stable stratification as offshore California. Under these extreme conditions, we determined that the MYNN scheme models higher stability than YSU, resulting in less vertical turbulent mixing than YSU, allowing for the acceleration of hub-height winds, more intense LLJs, and higher-amplitude inertial oscillations. Using surface observations, we found that MYNN overestimates near-surface stability, whereas YSU tends to model stability better. We then considered several short-term case studies to assess additional meteorological drivers of the bias at Humboldt. We found that during synoptic scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific High and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN case studies contributes to the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics via a thermal wind mechanism. Given the strong performance of the YSU-based runs in offshore California, NREL has produced and published an updated version of the CA20 data set with YSU as the PBL scheme. This updated data set is now part of NREL's 2023 National Offshore Wind (NOW-23) data set, which covers all the U.S. offshore waters. The development and final validation of the NOW-23 data set in offshore California is documented in this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Generating Synthetic Time Series Photovoltaic Data with Real-World Physical Challenges and Noise for Use in Algorithm Test and Validation

The PV Fleet Data Initiative and other projects seek the develop algorithms for automated analysis of PV time series data for extraction of statistical information and other parameters of the data such as degradation rates, soiling loss information, tracker performance, clipping or curtailment, system availability and other valuable information. While there is a vast body of PV data available for application of said extraction algorithms it is difficult to validate these algorithms because the true parameters to be extracted are not known. There has been a wide use of synthetic data in the literature for algorithm validation but this synthetic data is typically very bounded by the problem or topic at hand. The PV Fleet Data Initiative project has demonstrated that real time series PV data almost always includes a host of data quality and physical problems that, in reality, any automated PV abstraction algorithm must handle appropriately. For this reason, this work describes the development of a complex synthetic PV times series data set that includes data quality and physical problems that have been experienced in real world PV data. The various quality and physical problems are documented in the synthetic data so that users can test the validity of various PV extraction algorithms as well as develop new algorithms to solve problems this data set can support.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Neutron Polarisation in Deuteron Photo-disintegration with the CLAS Start Counter [Thesis]

Deuteron photo-disintegration (γd → γp) is a reaction that represents the simplest case in which nuclear and hadron physics models can be tested. Despite this, associated polarization analyses are limited in terms of angular coverage and energy ranges, especially in observables related to the recoil neutron. This is largely due to a lack in dedicated polarimetry equipment, and represents a roadblock in global progress to understand high-energy phenomena such as hexaquarks, and quark-gluon degrees of freedom. To address this problem, this PhD thesis pioneers a new methodology for the parasitic measurement of nucleon polarization using kinematic reconstruction of (spin-dependent) nucleon-nucleus scattering of reaction products, prior to their detection in large acceptance particle detector apparatus. Following this novel approach, which requires no dedicated polarimeter, a determination of the double polarization observable, $C^n_{x'}$, from deuteron photo-disintegration is presented, using Jefferson Lab’s CLAS detector. The analysis utilizes the (n,p) charge exchange reaction in CLAS’s "start counter" (plastic scintillator) to determine the final state neutron polarizations. The results present the first ever data for this observable above 0.7 GeV (photon beam energy) and significantly extend the angular range of the world data set. This new data is largely statistically consistent with the previous measurement of $C^n_{x'}$ by Bashkanov et al . in the overlapping energy range of 0.4-0.7 GeV. It is planned for the statistical accuracy of the presented result to be increased by the inclusion of additional data. The analysis herein serves as a key proof of concept for future applications, including a recommended similar analysis to be implemented with data from the more modern CLAS12 detector. This paves the way for a plethora of additional analyses using existing data sets that would provide crucial new constraints for hadron and nuclear physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

TP84227_FS83049_OPData

The data set represents the data used for the analysis of operational carbon emissions for a carbon case study of a typical production builder's home in two common climate zones, Climate Zone 2 (Warm) and CZ 5 (Cold). A data set for embodied carbon emissions analysis for the same project is in a separate workbook.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

TP84227_FS83049_ECData

The data set represents the data used for the analysis of embodied carbon emissions for a carbon case study of a typical production builder's home in two common climate zones, Climate Zone 2 (Warm) and CZ 5 (Cold). A data set for operational carbon emissions analysis for the same project is in a separate workbook.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Satellite Imagery of PV Site Storm Damage

"This repository contains multiple data sets focused on visible damage to photovoltaic (PV) installations following extreme weather events such as hailstorms and hurricanes. Data sets are split into two categories: the first category, the ‘manually labeled’ data, was compiled by researchers manually, and contains manually identified PV sites exposed to storms. The second data set, the ‘aggregated’ data, is a compilation of the manually labeled PV sites and deep learning-identified PV sites. The hail damage data set focuses on post-storm PV damage following a September 24, 2023 hailstorm in Austin, TX, which caused over $600 million in damages in the Austin metro area. The hurricane damage data set focuses on post-storm PV damage following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Hurricanes Irma and Maria were back-to-back category 5 hurricanes, which pummeled the Caribbean and southeastern United States in September 2017, causing an estimated $115.2 billion in damages."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis

The high energy consumption from residential buildings provides them large potential to participate in demand response programs. To design appropriate demand response programs for residential buildings, it is important for electric utilities to know the energy consumption characteristics for different types of households so that utilities can send requests to the groups with a higher possibility to successfully respond. In this paper, we develop a load model to generate synthetic load profiles for different types of households incorporating demographical information including Current Population Survey data set and American Time Use Survey data set. The details of each data set and the details of the load models are presented. The synthetic household load profiles are generated by the load model and clustered into different groups based on state, age, number of occupants, income level, and city of the household. The average energy consumption characteristics for different groups of households are analyzed and compared, which will help electric utilities issue demand response signals to appropriate households.

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis: Preprint

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2024

Luminosity determination using Z boson production at the CMS experiment

The measurement of Z boson production is presented as a method to determine the integrated luminosity of CMS data sets. The analysis uses proton–proton collision data, recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2017 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Events with Z bosons decaying into a pair of muons are selected. The total number of Z bosons produced in a fiducial volume is determined, together with the identification efficiencies and correlations from the same data set, in small intervals of 20 pb –1 of integrated luminosity, thus facilitating the efficiency and rate measurement as a function of time and instantaneous luminosity. Using the ratio of the efficiency-corrected numbers of Z bosons, the precisely measured integrated luminosity of one data set is used to determine the luminosity of another. For the first time, a full quantitative uncertainty analysis of the use of Z bosons for the integrated luminosity measurement is performed. The uncertainty in the extrapolation between two data sets, recorded in 2017 at low and high instantaneous luminosity, is less than 0.5%. We show that the Z boson rate measurement constitutes a precise method, complementary to traditional methods, with the potential to improve the measurement of the integrated luminosity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Performance of Density Functionals for Predicting Potential Energy Curves in Hydrogen Storage Applications

We report the availability of accurate computational tools for modeling and simulation is vital to accelerate the discovery of materials capable of storing hydrogen (H 2 ) under given parameters of pressure swing and temperature. Previously, we compiled the H2Bind275 data set consisting of equilibrium geometries and assessed the performance of 55 density functionals over this data set (Veccham, S. P.; Head-Gordon, M. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2020, 16, 4963-4982). As it is crucial for computational tools to accurately model the entire potential energy curve (PEC), in addition to the equilibrium geometry, we extended this data set with 389 new data points to include two compressed and three elongated geometries along 78 PECs for H 2 binding, forming the H2Bind78 × 7 data set. By assessing the performance of 55 density functionals on this significantly larger and more comprehensive H2Bind78 × 7 data set, we identified the best performing density functionals for H 2 binding applications: PBE0-DH, ωB97X-V, ωB97M-V, and DSD-PBEPBE-D3(BJ). The addition of Hartree-Fock exchange improves the performance of density functionals, albeit not uniformly throughout the PEC. We recommend the usage of ωB97X-V and ωB97M-V density functionals as they offer good performance for both geometries and energies. In addition, we also identified B97M-V and B97M-rV as the best semilocal density functionals for predicting H 2 binding energy at its equilibrium geometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generalized Brønsted‐Evans‐Polanyi Relationships for Reactions on Metal Surfaces from Machine Learning

Abstract Brønsted‐Evans‐Polanyi (BEP) relationships, i. e., a linear scaling between reaction and activation energies, lie at the core of computational design of heterogeneous catalysts. However, BEPs are not general and often require reparameterization for each class of reactions. Here we construct generalized BEPs (gBEPs), which can predict activation energies for a diverse dataset of reactions of C, O, N and H containing molecules on metal surfaces. In a first step we develop a set of descriptors based on scaling relationships that can capture the change in chemical identity of reactants during the reaction. Subsequently, we use the reaction energy, these descriptors and a single descriptor for the surface structure to parameterize machine learning based regression approaches for the prediction of activation energies. The best approach we developed shows a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.11 eV for the training set (80 % of the data set) and 0.23 eV for the test set (20 % of the data set). The methodology presented here allows to calculate activation energies within fractions of seconds on a typical personal computer and due to its generality, accuracy and simplicity in application it might prove to be useful in transition metal catalyst design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Patient-Specific Medication Regimen Policies Using Wearable Sensors in Parkinson’s Disease

Effective treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a continual challenge for healthcare providers, and providers can benefit from leveraging emerging technologies to supplement traditional clinic care. We develop a data-driven reinforcement learning (RL) framework to optimize PD medication regimens through wearable sensors. We leverage a data set of n = 26 PD patients who wore wrist-mounted movement trackers for two separate six-day periods. Using these data, we first build and validate a simulation model of how individual patients’ movement symptoms respond to medication administration. We then pair this simulation model with an on-policy RL algorithm that recommends optimal medication types, timing, and dosages during the day while incorporating human-in-the-loop considerations on medication administration. The results show that the RL-prescribed medication regimens outperform physicians’ medication regimens, despite physicians having access to the same data as the RL agent. To validate our results, we assess our wearable-based RL medication regimens using n = 399 PD patients from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative data set. We show that the wearable-based RL medication regimens would lead to significant symptom improvement for these patients, even more so than training RL policies directly from this data set. In doing so, we show that RL models from even small data sets of wearable data can offer novel, generalizable clinical insights and medication strategies, which may outperform those derived from larger data sets without wearable data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The ongoing growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Through access to a large number of time series data sets from different power plants, we have found common issues that impede the modeling process. Namely, the time series data are hard to transfer between groups due to differences in variable nomenclature, and the quality of the data sets can vary. We address the issue of variable nomenclature by FAIRifying spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. We have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. With access to large time series data sets across many power plants, we can utilize spatiotemporal coherence between the sites in order to improve the quality of our data. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of Spatiotemporal-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Gamma Background Radiation Digital Twin with Machine Learning Algorithms: Application of Unsupervised Machine Learning to Detection of Anomalies and Nuisances in Gamma Background Radiation Environmental Screening Data

Environmental screening of gamma radiation consists of detecting weak nuisance and anomaly signal in the presence of strong and highly varying background. In a typical scenario, a mobile detector-spectrometer continuously measures gamma radiation spectra in short, e.g., one-second, signal acquisition intervals. The measurement data is a 2D matrix, where one dimension is gamma ray energy, and the other dimension is the number of measurements or total time. In principle, gamma radiation sources can be detected and identified from the measured data by their unique spectral lines. Detecting sources from data measured in a search scenario is difficult due to the highly varying background because of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), and low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of spectral signal measured during one-second acquisition intervals. The objective of this work is to explore unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for development of a digital twin of gamma radiation background, and for detection and identification of weak nuisances and anomalies events in the presence of highly fluctuating background. In one segment of work, we developed a gamma background estimation model using a Longshort term memory (LSTM) network for one-step CPS time series prediction. The LSTM model was validated with two data sets of measurements from two independent NaI detectors positioned on a mobile platform. The data sets contained background radiation only and no orphan isotope sources. The LSTM model was constructed and tested using data from one of the detectors. Performance of the LSTM model was validate through one-step prediction of CPS time series of another NaI detector without re-training. This approach allows to create a digital twin for nuclear background estimation. Using LSTM, it could be possible to detect a source through subtraction of the estimated counts from the measured background. In another segment of work, we investigated detection of gamma emitting sources in the presence of complex background using unsupervised machine learning. Spectral lines of isotopes are difficult to observe in one-second measurements. Averaging over the entire measurement campaign data set reveals spectral lines of most common background isotopes. Spectral lines of orphan sources, which might appear only in a few measurements during the campaign, will be washed out if averaging is performed over the entire measurement data set. The approach we have explored consists of extracting one-second measurements containing weak spectral features through data clustering. Averaging one-second spectra in a cluster should reveal the presence of anomaly sources. We created two ML models using K-means clustering and Neural Network Self-organizing Map (SOM). Performance of these ML models was benchmarked using search data. One data set contained 137 Cs source, and another dataset contained 131 I source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

COMBLE Radar b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility recently concluded its Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE), with its campaign emphasis on marine boundary-layer clouds and mixed-phase clouds during cold-air outbreaks. The COMBLE campaign featured the deployment of the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) to northern Scandinavia (Andenes, Norway), including its standard complement of ARM cloud radars. In keeping with user demands stemming from the previous AMF Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign in Argentina, a post-campaign radar mentor effort was initiated for COMBLE. This activity was intended to improve the usability of the ARM cloud radar data sets in response to overall demands for calibrated, corrected data sets for downstream studies and retrieval applications. In addition to the terrain complexities previously important to CACTI data sets (e.g., clutter designation and/or removal), COMBLE presented new challenges to existing ARM radar mentor capabilities. These included the extension of existing methodologies (e.g., relative calibration adjustment [RCA] target techniques) to frozen environments and the potential issues with their applicability when considering mixed-phase precipitation conditions. As in the previous CACTI documentation (Hardin et al. 2020), the overall calibration and conditioning process in ARM nomenclature is referred to as generating a “b1” datastream. For the radars, these “b1” standards refer to a datastream that has been calibrated (and cross-calibrated), with effort to deliver the highest-quality (well-characterized) data possible. The “b1” radar mentor reporting (this current document) is intended to detail (i) the status/quality of the original “a1” (raw) data sets during the COMBLE AMF campaign, (ii) the corrections and calibrations that are applied to generate the b1 datastreams available on ARM’s Data Discovery, and (iii) the details of the applied methods, e.g., how radar offset/calibration numbers were determined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase-weighted slant stacking for surface wave dispersion measurement

SUMMARY Surface wave retrieval from ambient noise records using seismic interferometry techniques has been widely used for multiscale shear wave velocity (Vs) imaging. One key step during Vs imaging is the generation of dispersion spectra and the extraction of a reliable dispersion curve from the retrieved surface waves. However, the sparse array geometry usually affects the ability for high-frequency (>1 Hz) seismic signals’ acquisition. Dispersion measurements are degraded by array response due to sparse sampling and often present smeared dispersion spectra with sidelobe artefacts. Previous studies usually focus on interferograms’ domain (e.g. cross-correlation function) and attempt to enhance coherent signals before dispersion measurement. We propose an alternative technique to explicitly deblur dispersion spectra through use of a phase-weighted slant-stacking algorithm. Numerical examples demonstrate the strength of the proposed technique to attenuate array responses as well as incoherent noise. Three different field examples prove the flexibility and superiority of the proposed technique: the first data set consists of ambient noise records acquired using a nodal seismometer array; the second data set utilizes distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and a marine fibre-optic cable to acquire a similar ambient noise data set; the last data set is a vibrator-based active-source surface wave data. The enhanced dispersion measurements provide cleaner and higher-resolution spectra without distortions which will assist both human interpreters as well as ML algorithms in efficiently picking curves for subsequent Vs inversion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗