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DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tree architectural characteristics and stem and leaf functional traits for 17 individuals in the Central Amazon

Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Research was conducted at the ZF2 Research Station located north or Manaus, Brazil, managed by the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA). Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Wood logs were collected at DBH, 50% stem length and at 100% stem length (at the base of the canopy). For wood anatomy samples, n=3-6 subsamples from each height. For leaf samples, 30 leaves were collected from the upper sunlit canopy. The methodology is detailed in the accompanying manuscript. The trait data are summarized in this file: "Trait_Summary.CSV". Summary Trait code abbreviations and units are described in this file: "Sample_Info_Traits_Summary.CSV". Stem traits measured along the bole from the base of the tree (DBH, diameter breast height), mid-stem, and base of the canopy are described in these files: "Sapwood_Area_height.CSV"; "Species_Info_height.CSV"; "Sample_Info_height.CSV"

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Motion Sickness and Concerns for Urban Air Mobility Vehicles: A Literature Review

Motion sickness is a general term for a constellation of signs and symptoms, generally due to exposure to abrupt, periodic, or unnatural accelerations, especially when traveling in a vehicle. Motion sickness results from a mismatch of the visual and nonvisual (vestibular and kinesthetic) information, the observed scene and the motion felt or lack of it. Motion sickness onset is associated with a pattern of physiological changes in heart rate, peripheral blood flow, respiration, and skin conductance and the pattern is repeatable for a particular subject but variable between subjects. Demographic factors such as gender and age that affect motion sickness are well known with children, women, and older adults more likely to be susceptible. Often motion sickness is assessed and quantified using variations of the motion sickness susceptibility questionnaires including the Pensacola Diagnostic Rating Scale and the Simulator Sickness Questionnaire. Even though symptoms are easily identified by such questionnaires, they commonly are subjective. Tools such as these questionnaires for screening individuals susceptible to motion sickness are useful, however, they are only mildly predictive. Moreover, models for predicting motion sickness, which have largely been developed for sea sickness, do not consider task characteristics. Predictions of motion sickness rates and prevalence for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles are not possible at present because data from actual flight or full-fidelity simulation are simply not yet available. Extrapolation from other modes of transportation (i.e., automobiles, buses, trains, boats, other types of aircraft) is difficult because of differences in the motion stimulus experienced, trip duration, and other factors. How UAM vehicles will change the social dynamics of passenger interaction and vehicle interior design changes (e.g., seat orientations) is unknown. Should motion sickness prove to be an issue, vehicle design modifications such as having passengers face forward, providing additional seat recline, giving each person their own climate control for airflow, perhaps ensuring the horizon is visible to all passengers (reducing visual occlusion by the headrest) and visually stabilizing displays on carry-on devices (smart phones, tablets, etc.) may benefit passengers. Several commercial companies provide wearable devices for physiological monitoring that have been validated and are suitable for use with passengers in UAM vehicles or high-fidelity simulators. Potential countermeasures for motion sickness include user-worn devices, anti-motion sickness medications, and non-pharmacological approaches such as biofeedback and Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise. Both simulator and in-vehicle UAM research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of any potential countermeasure.

motion sickness↗

DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mortality correlates with tree functional traits across a wood density gradient in the Central Amazon

Introduction: Understanding the mechanisms of tree mortality in tropical ecosystems remains challenging, in part due to the high diversity of tree species and the inherently stochastic nature of mortality. Plant functional traits offer a mechanistic link between plant physiology and performance, yet their ability to predict growth and mortality remains poorly understood. Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Methods: Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Traits of the individual trees were related to stand-level growth and mortality rates collected periodically over 30 years from nearby permanent inventory plots. Results: Higher wood density was associated with smaller leaf size, lower foliar base cations, lower stem water content and sapwood fraction, in agreement with the fast-slow plant economics spectrum. Lower wood density was associated with more acquisitive characteristics with greater hydraulic capacity and foliar nutrient concentrations, correlating with greater growth and mortality rates. Discussion: Our results show that lower wood density is part of a coordinated suite of traits linked to high resource acquisition, fast growth, and increased mortality risk, providing a functional framework for predicting species performance and forest vulnerability under future climate stress.

demographics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigation of Hardware and Instrumentation to Measure Hand Grasp Activity with the Spacesuit Gloves

Introduction: During the 2022 suited injury summit, it was hypothesized that there will be concerns for hand and glove injuries for future exploration space missions, especially given the fact that the “total number of Extravehicular activity (EVA) hours and frequency” for lunar surface missions is expected to vastly increase [1]. It has been reported that the hands experienced the greatest “absolute numbers” of reported injuries and far exceeds other injuries during EVA [1, 2]. It was reported that the most fatiguing part of the surface EVA was the repetitive gripping tasks [3]. It was recommended that a “glove sub-team” be created to look at possible injury mechanism and mitigation strategies. Some of the recommendations that were suggested [1] are as follows: examine hand fatigue, utilize motion capture, examine the duration and frequency of hand movements, and identify frequent hand motions. We started assessing hardware and instrumentation to measure hand grasp activity in the pressurized glove environment. The purpose of this test was to perform a hardware evaluation for motion capture (MoCap) gloves obtained from StretchSense (Auckland, New Zealand). The specific gloves used were the Pro Fidelity and SuperSplay to determine the repeatability, reliability, feasibility, and useability inside of a pressurized gloved environment. Methods: The MoCap gloves were customized (e.g., battery/Bluetooth pack relocated to upper arm) to better suit the pressurized testing environment and protect the subject from unintentional injury (Fig. 1). Fourteen total subjects from different demographics (i.e., gender and pressurized glove experience level) participated in this test series. Testing included one session each of a baseline data collection (NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) building 21) and a spacesuit glove box (Fig. 2 at JSC building 7 room 2027) data collection (under vacuum down to 4.3 psid), where each session lasted 3-5 hours. Controlled and reproducible tasks to systematically evaluate the repeatability and reliability of the hardware were performed during baseline data collection. Additionally, subjects performed simulated EVA-like tasks in a pressurized gloved environment. For all sessions, MoCap gloves were placed on each of the subjects’ hands and the signal from it, or the raw capacitance (Fig. 3), was analysed. The raw capacitance was used to estimate the open and closed hand states between the testing conditions and allow us to provide an offset caused by the pressurized environment. Results & Discussion: Initial observation with the bare hands (baseline) condition showed that the MoCap gloves appeared to track grasping and releasing of the fingers (opening and closing fist) with both high- and low-speed conditions, while adduction and abduction of the fingers were not relatively tracked. A hardware evaluation was done outside of the glove box to assess the reliability and repeatability of the MoCap glove. In one task, a point force was applied to various locations on the back of the hand. When the point force was applied to the space between the 1st digit and the pointer finger, there was a noticeable distortion to the MoCap data. Another task examining an increasing force from a 10 lb. sandbag applied to the back of the hand while lying flat on a table, showed a constant flat line with only a distortion when the weight was increased or added to the back of the hand. Fig. 3 shows an object relocation task where you can see when each individual finger “opened” and “closed” (changed position) when picking up and setting down the dumbbell. When the fingers were stationary, the signal remained relatively flat compared to the peaks and valleys that can be observed in Fig. 3. This study showed promising results and imperative input into an attempt to discriminate between hand states across various functional tasks and should be evaluated with context to the repeatability and reliability outcomes. Depending on the task done inside of the pressurized glove box environment and outside, the results appear to be affected by many different factors (i.e., drift, pressure, hand size, etc.). Significance: If this hardware proves to be reliable and repeatable in determining the open and closed hand states then this may provide critical insight into assisting in the characterization of the pressurized gloved environment and the effect on crew member exertion level. Ultimately, this tool will provide useful data for quantifying the repetitive nature of EVA training and tasks. Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge the NASA Mars Campaign Office for providing funding for this research. Lastly, thanks to all the engineers and technicians at NASA JSC who helped with this data collection. References: [1] Reiber, et al. (2022), NASA/TM-20220007605; [2] Scheuring, et al. (2009), Av., Sp., and Envir. Med. 80(2). [3] Scheuring, et al. (2007), NASA/TM–2007–214755.

Rachel L Thompson↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗