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DOE OSTI2021

A multi-year short-range hindcast experiment with CESM1 for evaluating climate model moist processes from diurnal to interannual timescales

Abstract. We present a multi-year short-range hindcast experiment and its experimental design for better evaluation of both the mean state and variability of atmospheric moist processes in climate models from diurnal to interannual timescales and facilitate model development. We used the Community Earth System Model version 1 as the base model and performed a suite of 3 d hindcasts initialized every day starting at 00:00 Z from 1997 to 2012. Three processes – the diurnal cycle of clouds during different cloud regimes over the central US, precipitation and diabatic heating associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the response of precipitation, surface radiative and heat fluxes, as well as zonal wind stress to sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – are evaluated as examples to demonstrate how one can better utilize simulations from this experiment to gain insights into model errors and their connection to physical parameterizations or large-scale state. This is achieved by comparing the hindcasts with corresponding long-term observations for periods based on different phenomena. These analyses can only be done through this multi-year hindcast approach to establish robust statistics of the processes under well-controlled large-scale environment because these phenomena are either a result of interannual climate variability or only happen a few times in a given year (e.g., MJO, or cloud regime types). Furthermore, comparison of hindcasts to the typical simulations in climate mode with the same model allows one to infer what portion of a model's climate error directly comes from fast errors in the parameterizations of moist processes. As demonstrated here, model biases in the mean state and variability associated with parameterized moist processes usually develop within a few days and manifest within weeks to affect the simulations of large-scale circulation and ultimately the climate mean state and variability. Therefore, model developers can achieve additional useful understanding of the underlying problems in model physics by conducting a multi-year hindcast experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

An investigation of the Sutcliffe development theory

Two case studies were used to test the Sutcliffe-Peterssen development theory for both cyclonic and anticyclonic development over the eastern United States. Each term was examined to determine when and where it made a significant contribution to the development process. Results indicate the advection of vorticity at the level of non-divergence exerts the dominant influence for initial cyclone development, and that the thermal terms (advection of thickness, stability, and diabatic influence) become important after development has begun. Anticyclonic development, however, depends primarily on the stability term throughout the life cycle of the anticyclone. Simple procedures for forecasting the development and movement of cyclones and anticyclones are listed. These rules indicate that routine National Meteorological Center analyses may be used to locate areas where the positive advection of 500-mb vorticity, indicative of cyclonic development, coincides with regions of severe weather activity. The development of anticyclones also is predicted easily. Regions of increasing stability, indicating anticyclonic development, may be located by use of National Meteorological Center radar summaries and analyses for 1000-500-mb thickness. A test of these techniques found them to be satisfactory for the case examined.

Dushan, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The GISS model of the global atmosphere

A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Test particle propagation in magnetostatic turbulence. 1. Failure of the diffusion approximation

The equation which governs the quasi-linear approximation to the ensemble and gyro-phase averaged one-body probability distribution function is constructed from first principles. This derived equation is subjected to a thorough investigation in order to calculate the possible limitations of the quasi-linear approximation. It is shown that the reduction of this equation to a standard diffusion equation in the Markovian limit can be accomplished through the application of the adiabatic approximation. A numerical solution of the standard diffusion equation in the Markovian limit is obtained for the narrow parallel beam injection. Comparison of the diabatic and adiabatic results explicitly demonstrates the failure of the Markovian description of the probability distribution function. Through the use of a linear time-scale extension the failure of the adiabatic approximation, which leads to the Markovian limit, is shown to be due to mixing of the relaxation and interaction time scales in the presence of the strong mean field.

Klimas, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The July climate and a comparison of the January and July climates simulated by the GISS general circulation model

Results are presented for a study directed to evaluate the ability of the global general circulation model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in simulating seasonal differences as related to an experiment simulating the July climatology which parallels the January simulation presented by Somerville et al. (1974). The July and January simulations are compared with each other and with climatological data on seasonal changes, mainly for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. The comparison shows that the model-generated energy cycle, distribution of winds, temperature, humidity and pressure, dynamical transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation and cloud cover are all realistic for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in July. The model's simulation of seasonal differences is generally quite realistic since the systematic quantitative errors do not affect the simulation of relative changes, to first order. Defects that could seriously bias the model's performance in particular climate experiments are identified and discussed.

Stone, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A theoretical study of the efficiency of the general circulation

The paper examines the problem of explaining the atmospheric efficiency, or equivalently, the rate of generation of available potential energy (APE) by diabatic heating. Attention is focused on determining the maximum possible rate of generation of APE and its accompanying temperature field, which does not require a knowledge of the atmospheric motions leading to temperature distribution. Qualitative and quantitative results indicate that the atmosphere may be operating within approximately a factor of 2 of its maximum efficiency. The general circulation may be operating at nearly its maximum efficiency.

Schulman, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Quantum mechanical theory of a structured atom-diatom collision system - A + BC/1-Sigma/

The problem of a 2-p state atom colliding with a singlet sigma state diatom, which involves multiple potential surfaces, is investigated. Within a diabatic representation for the electronic degrees of freedom (plus spin-orbit interaction), coupled scattering equations are derived in both space-fixed and body-fixed coordinate systems. Coefficients, analogous to Percival-Seaton coefficients, are obtained. Approximations to the exact equations, including angular momenta decoupling approximations, are discussed for both the space-fixed and body-fixed formalisms.

Devries, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Vertical motions in the equatorial middle atmosphere

A single station vertical velocity equation which considers ageostrophic and diabatic effects derived from the first law of thermodynamics and a generalized thermal wind relation is presented. An analysis and verification procedure which accounts for measurement and calculation errors as well as time and space continuity arguments and theoretical predictions are described. Vertical velocities are calculated at every kilometer between 25 and 60 km and for approximately every three hours for the above diurnal period at Kourou (French Guiana), Fort Sherman (Panama Canal Zone), Ascension Island, Antigua (British West Indies) and Natal (Brazil). The results, plotted as time series cross sections, suggest vertical motions ranging in magnitude from 1 or 2 cm/sec at 30 km to as much as 15 cm/sec at 60 km. Many of the general features of the results agree well with atmospheric tidal predictions but many particular features suggest that both smaller time scale gravity waves (periods less than 6 hours) and synoptic type waves (periods greater than 1 day) may be interacting significantly with the tidal fields. The results suggest that vertical motions can be calculated for the equatorial middle atmosphere and must be considered a significant part of the motion for time scales from 8 to 24 hours.

Weisman, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Quantum-mechanical theory including angular momenta analysis of atom-atom collisions in a laser field

The problem of two atoms colliding in the presence of an intense radiation field, such as that of a laser, is investigated. The radiation field, which couples states of different electronic symmetry, is described by the number state representation while the electronic degrees of freedom (plus spin-orbit interaction) are discussed in terms of a diabatic representation. The total angular momentum of the field-free system and the angular momentum transferred by absorption (or emission) of a photon are explicitly considered in the derivation of the coupled scattering equations. A model calculation is discussed for the Xe + F collision system.

Devries, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

On the interweaving of partial cross sections of different parity

Partial cross sections of definite parity, calculated for electronic-rotational energy transfer in the F +H2 collision system, interweave with increasing total angular momentum J. An explanation, in terms of diabatic curve crossings induced by the centrifugal potential in the body-fixed coordinate system, predicts the interweaving to occur only in systems having half-integer J.

Devries, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Energetics of a sudden stratospheric warming simulated with a three-dimensional, spectral, quasi-geostrophic model

The energetics of a three dimensional, quasi-geostrophic simulation of a sudden stratospheric warming which developed spontaneously during an annual cycle simulation are described. Daily values of the stratospheric temperatures, zonal winds, heating rates, energies, and energy conversions are discussed and compared with those for observed warmings. It is shown that, like observed warmings, the simulated warming was preceded by an increased vertical flux of eddy kinetic energy from the troposphere and the polar heating resulted because of the strong convergence of the horizontal, eddy heat flux which was only partially balanced by adiabatic and diabatic cooling. There is a significant similarity between the energetics of the simulated and observed warmings. In addition, the warming was spontaneous and the model did not develop a major warming in each winter of the simulation. These facts suggest that this model may be useful for studying not only the warming process but also the conditions that favor its development.

Haggard, K. V.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Global analysis of January and July sea level pressure

A global analysis of monthly mean sea level pressure for January and July over a 16 year period (1961 through 1976) is presented. For both hemispheres, the summer circulation is characterized by continental lows and oceanic highs. The prominent features of the Northern Hemispheric winter circulation, forced by diabatic heat sources and orography, are Aleutian low, Icelandic low and Siberian high. The interannual variability is small over the tropics and large over the extratropics. Maximum variability occurs over the locations of Icelandic and Aleutian lows in the Northern Hemispheric winter. The locations and intensities of the Southern Hemispheric subtropical highs, which occur over the oceans, are remarkably similar in January and July and show small interannual variability. The north Atlantic and south Atlantic subtropical highs attain their maximum intensity at the same time, during July.

Godbole, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The role of forced planetary waves in the annual cycle of the zonal mean circulation of the middle atmosphere

A severely truncated semispectral numerical model is used to simulate the annual cycle of the zonally averaged circulation in the middle atmosphere (16-96 km). The model includes only a single zonal harmonic wave component which interacts with the mean flow; the circulation is driven by diabatic heating and by a specified perturbation in the topography of the lower boundary, which is taken to be the 100 mb surface. A comparison of the annual cycle simulated by this model with the results of an analogous two-dimensional model indicates that planetary waves have relatively little influence on the zonal mean temperature profiles and on the solstice mean zonal winds at high latitudes. The primary effects of the forced waves are in decelerating the mean winds at low latitudes in the winter hemisphere to produce a region of weak westerlies, and in generating final warmings at the spring equinoxes.

Holton, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Linear and nonlinear aspects of snow albedo feedbacks in atmospheric models

Namias' hypothesis, that anomalous snowcover on the eastern side of the North American continent can generate an anomalous east coast low pressure system and an anomalous inland high pressure system, is consistent with the time-averaged anomalous response from a nonlinear, primitive equation channel model with an idealized, flat land-sea arrangement. An attempt to understand and describe this anomalous response in the nonlinear model as a linear response to anomalous diabatic heating was largely unsuccessful, primarily because the anomalous eddy fluxes were also important. This unsuccessful attempt to describe the nonlinear model's time averages by linear theory then motivated several comparisons between linear and nonlinear severely truncated quasi-geostrophic models. It was also found in these models that the eddy fluxes were extremely important for forcing or dissipating the stationary eddies.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of the tropical atmosphere

An examination of the deterministic predictability for tropics and middle-latitudes separately indicates that the theoretical upper limit of deterministic predictability for low latitudes is shorter than that for middle latitudes. Variability of time averages in low latitudes is mainly determined by the location and intensity of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations. Since these are largely influenced by the slowly varying boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and soil moisture, and since synoptic instabilities are not strong enough to change drastically the large scale flow, there is larger potential for predictability of monthly and seasonal means in low latitudes. It is conjectured that for short and medium range deterministic prediction, a prescribed diabatic heating field due to moist convection may be more useful than their explicit calculation from the evolving flow.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A simple model of the Lagrangian-mean flow produced by dissipating planetary waves

A simple equation for the Lagrangian-mean flow induced by damped planetary waves is derived. The flow computed for stationary planetary waves of a beta-plane is found to be generally poleward and downward during winter and appears to be about twice as strong as the diabatic circulation in the lower stratosphere. An important factor in determining the high-latitude Lagrangian-mean flow field is the subtropical jet stream which blocks planetary wave propagation toward the equatorial regions. Computations using two types of Lagrangian-mean boundary conditions at the surface show that incorrect orographic forcing distorts the Lagrangian-mean flow up to three scale heights or more above ground.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Heat balance statistics derived from four-dimensional assimilations with a global circulation model

The reported investigation was conducted to develop a reliable procedure for obtaining the diabatic and vertical terms required for atmospheric heat balance studies. The method developed employs a four-dimensional assimilation mode in connection with the general circulation model of NASA's Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The initial analysis was conducted with data obtained in connection with the 1976 Data Systems Test. On the basis of the results of the investigation, it appears possible to use the model's observationally constrained diagnostics to provide estimates of the global distribution of virtually all of the quantities which are needed to compute the atmosphere's heat and energy balance.

Schubert, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

On the vertical structure of damped steady circulation in the tropics

This paper presents an analysis of the vertical structure of steady motion in a dissipative tropical atmosphere forced by steady isolated diabatic heating. Vertical modes appropriate to the problem are obtained, and the forcing is projected onto these modes. With the use of an analytic expression obtained by Gill (1980) for the horizontal structure, these modes are summed to obtain the amplitude and the vertical structure of the response in the region to the east of the heating.

Geisler, J. E.↗