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At least 235 records · Page 13

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Meaningful timescales from Monte Carlo simulations of particle systems with hard-core interactions

A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for simulating the dynamics of particle systems characterized by hard-core interactions is introduced. In contrast to traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo approaches, where the state of the system is associated with minima in the energy landscape, in the proposed method, the state of the system is associated with the set of paths traveled by the atoms and the transition probabilities for an atom to be displaced are proportional to the corresponding velocities. In this way, the number of possible state-to-state transitions is reduced to a discrete set, and a direct link between the Monte Carlo time step and true physical time is naturally established. The resulting rejection-free algorithm is validated against event-driven molecular dynamics: the equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamics of hard disks converge to the exact results with decreasing displacement size.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulator of Non-homogenous Alumina and Current Distribution in an Aluminum Electrolysis Cell to Predict Low-Voltage Anode Effects

Perfluorocarbons are important contributors to aluminum production greenhouse gas inventories. Tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane are produced in the electrolysis process when a harmful event called anode effect occurs in the cell. This incident is strongly related to the lack of alumina and the current distribution in the cell and can be classified into two categories: high-voltage and low-voltage anode effects. The latter is hard to detect during the normal electrolysis process and, therefore, new tools are necessary to predict this event and minimize its occurrence. This paper discusses a new approach to model the alumina distribution behavior in an electrolysis cell by dividing the electrolytic bath into non-homogenous concentration zones using discrete elements. The different mechanisms related to the alumina distribution are discussed in detail. Moreover, with a detailed electrical model, it is possible to calculate the current distribution among the different anodic assemblies. With this information, the model can evaluate if low-voltage emissions are likely to be present under the simulated conditions. Using the simulator will help the understanding of the role of the alumina distribution which, in turn, will improve the cell energy consumption and stability while reducing the occurrence of high- and low-voltage anode effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cohesion-Induced Stabilization in Stick-Slip Dynamics of Weakly Wet, Sheared Granular Fault Gouge

We use three-dimensional discrete element calculations to study stick-slip dynamics in a weakly wet granular layer designed to simulate fault gouge. The granular gouge is constituted by 8000 spherical particles with a poly-disperse size distribution. At very low liquid content, liquids impose cohesive and viscous forces on particles. Our simulations show that by increasing the liquid content, friction increases and granular layer shows higher recurrence time between slip events. We also observe that slip events exhibit larger friction drop and layer compaction in wet system compared to dry. We demonstrate that a small volume of liquid induces cohesive forces between wet particles that are responsible for an increase in coordination number leading to a more stable arrangement of particles. This stabilization is evidenced with two orders of magnitude lower particle kinetic energy in wet system during stick phase. Similar to previous experimental studies, we observe enhanced frictional strength for wet granular layers. In experiments, the physicochemical processes are believed to be the main reason for such behavior, we show however, that at low confining stresses the hydromechanical effects of induced cohesion are sufficient for observed behavior. Our simulations illuminate the role of particle interactions and demonstrate the conditions under which induced cohesion plays a significant role in fault zone processes, including slip initiation, weakening, and failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Architectural Framework for Addressing Legacy Waste from the Cold War - 13611

We present an architectural framework for the use of a hybrid simulation model of enterprise-wide operations used to develop system-level insight into the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) environmental cleanup of legacy nuclear waste at the Savannah River Site. We use this framework for quickly exploring policy and architectural options, analyzing plans, addressing management challenges and developing mitigation strategies for DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM). The socio-technical complexity of EM's mission compels the use of a qualitative approach to complement a more a quantitative discrete event modeling effort. We use this model-based analysis to pinpoint pressure and leverage points and develop a shared conceptual understanding of the problem space and platform for communication among stakeholders across the enterprise in a timely manner. This approach affords the opportunity to discuss problems using a unified conceptual perspective and is also general enough that it applies to a broad range of capital investment/production operations problems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Detecting shearless phase-space transport barriers in global gyrokinetic turbulence simulations with test particle map models

In magnetically confined fusion plasmas, the role played by zonal 𝐸 x 𝐵 flow shear layers in the suppression of turbulent transport is relatively well understood. However, less is understood about the role played by the weak shear regions that arise in the non-monotonic radial electric field profiles often associated with these shear layers. In electrostatic simulations from the global total-𝑓 gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC, we demonstrate how shearless regions with non-zero flow curvature form zonal ‘jets’ that, in conjunction with neighbouring regions of shear, can act as robust barriers to particle transport and turbulence spreading. By isolating quasi-coherent fluctuations radially localised to the zonal jets, we construct a map model for the Lagrangian dynamics of gyrokinetic test particles in the presence of drift waves. We identify the presence of shearless invariant tori in this model and verify that these tori act as partial phase-space transport barriers in the simulations. We also demonstrate how avalanches impinging on these shearless tori cause eddy detachment events that form ‘cold/warm core ring’ structures analogous to those found in oceanic jets, facilitating transport across the barriers without destroying them completely. We discuss how shearless tori may generically arise from tertiary instabilities or other types of discrete eigenmodes, suggesting their potential relevance to broader classes of turbulent fluctuations.

fusion plasma↗

DEHP− extractant binding to trivalent lanthanide Er3+: Fast binding accompanied by concerted angular motions of hydration water

Solvent extraction of trivalent rare earth metal ions by organophosphorus extractants proceeds via binding of phosphoric acid headgroups to the metal ion. Water molecules in the tightly bound first hydration shell of the metal ions must be displaced by oxygen atoms from phosphoric acid headgroups. Here, we use classical molecular dynamics simulations to explore the event in which a fully hydrated Er3+ binds to its first phosphoric acid headgroup. Approach of the headgroup into the region between the first and second hydration shells leads to a fast ejection of a water molecule that is accompanied by reordering of the hydration water molecules, including discretization of their angular positions and collective rotation about the metal ion. The water molecule ejected from the first shell is located diametrically opposite from the binding oxygen. Headgroup binding places a headgroup oxygen closer to Er3+ than its first hydration shell and creates a loosely bound water that subsequently exchanges between the first shell and its environment. This second exchange of water also occurs at discrete angular positions. This geometrical aspect of binding may be of relevance to understanding the binding and transport of ion–extractant complexes that are expected to occur at the organic–aqueous liquid–liquid interface used in solvent extraction processes.

Chemistry↗

SIMULATED HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION TO DYNAMIC HUMAN FAILURE EVENTS

Abstract Objectives: Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods typically analyze human failure events (HFEs) at the overall task level. For dynamic HRA, it is important to model human activities at the subtask level. There exists a disconnect between dynamic subtask level and static task level that presents issues when modeling dynamic scenarios. For example, the SPAR-H method is typically used to calculate the human error probability (HEP) at the task level. As demonstrated in this paper, quantification in SPAR-H does not translate to the subtask level. Methods: Two different discrete distributions were generated for each SPAR-H Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) to define the frequency of PSF levels. The first distribution was a uniform, or uninformed distribution that assumed the frequency of each PSF level was equally likely. The second non-continuous distribution took the frequency of PSF level as identified from an assessment of the HERA database. These two different approaches were created to identify the resulting distribution of the HEP. The resulting HEP that appears closer to the known distribution, a log-normal centered on 1E-3, is the more desirable. Each approach then has median, average and maximum HFE calculations applied. To calculate these three values, three events, A, B and C are generated from the PSF level frequencies comprised of subtasks. The median HFE selects the median PSF level from each PSF and calculates HEP. The average HFE takes the mean PSF level, and the maximum takes the maximum PSF level. The same data set of subtask HEPs yields starkly different HEPs when aggregated to the HFE level in SPAR-H. Results: Assuming that each PSF level in each HFE is equally likely creates an unrealistic distribution of the HEP that is centered at 1. Next the observed frequency of PSF levels was applied with the resulting HEP behaving log-normally with a majority of the values under 2.5% HEP. The median, average and maximum HFE calculations did yield different answers for the HFE. The HFE maximum grossly over estimates the HFE, while the HFE distribution occurs less than HFE median, and greater than HFE average. Conclusions: Dynamic task modeling can be perused through the framework of SPAR-H. Identification of distributions associated with each PSF needs to be defined, and may change depending upon the scenario. However it is very unlikely that each PSF level is equally likely as the resulting HEP distribution is strongly centered at 100%, which is unrealistic. Other distributions may need to be identified for PSFs, to facilitate the transition to dynamic task modeling. Additionally discrete distributions need to be exchanged for continuous so that simulations for the HFE can further advance. This paper provides a method to explore dynamic subtask to task translation and provides examples of the process using the SPAR-H method.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impacts of vacancy-induced polarization and distortion on diffusion in Solid Electrolyte Li 3 OCl

We report that Lithium-rich oxychloride antiperovskites are promising solid electrolytes for enabling next-generation batteries. Here, we report a comprehensive study varying Li + concentrations in Li 3 OCl using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. The simulations accurately capture the complex interactions between Li + vacancies (V$^'_{Li}$), the dominant mobile species in Li 3 OCl. The V$^'_{Li}$ polarize and distort the host lattice, inducing additional non-vacancy-mediated diffusion mechanisms and correlated diffusion events that reduce the activation energy barrier at concentrations as low as 1.5% V$^'_{Li}$. Our analyses of discretized diffusion events in both space and time illustrate the critical interplay between correlated dynamics, polarization and local distortion in promoting ionic conductivity in Li 3 OCl.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

dependence↗

Robust Event Simulation Variants Endowed to Ns-3 for General Exploration

Sandia's ns-3 contributions are modifications to the open source ns-3 network simulator that enable simulation speedup. One improvement, for example, removes the need for simulating the transmission and receipt of packets between nodes that are too distant to actually be able to communicate. In large-scale simulations this optimization has shown significant gains in performance. Additional contributions will pave the way for parallel discrete simulation (PDES) in ns-3. SAND2020-12456 O Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Dickson, Joseph↗

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

Scaling methods for accelerating kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of chemical reaction networks

Various kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms become inefficient when some of the population sizes in a system are large, which gives rise to a large number of reaction events per unit time. In this work, we present a new acceleration algorithm based on adaptive and heterogeneous scaling of reaction rates and stoichiometric coefficients. The algorithm is conceptually related to the commonly used idea of accelerating a stochastic simulation by considering a subvolume λΩ (0 < λ < 1) within a system of interest, which reduces the number of reaction events per unit time occurring in a simulation by a factor 1/λ at the cost of greater error in unbiased estimates of first moments and biased overestimates of second moments. Our new approach offers two unique benefits. First, scaling is adaptive and heterogeneous, which eliminates the pitfall of overaggressive scaling. Second, there is no need for an a priori classification of populations as discrete or continuous (as in a hybrid method), which is problematic when discreteness of a chemical species changes during a simulation. The method requires specification of only a single algorithmic parameter, N c , a global critical population size above which populations are effectively scaled down to increase simulation efficiency. The method, which we term partial scaling, is implemented in the open-source BioNetGen software package. We demonstrate that partial scaling can significantly accelerate simulations without significant loss of accuracy for several published models of biological systems. Finally, these models characterize activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase ERK, prion protein aggregation, and T-cell receptor signaling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Passive Safety System Reliability in Advanced Small Modular Reactors: Methodologies and Lessons Learned

Many advanced small modular reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize with a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper describes the most promising options: mechanistic techniques, which share qualities with conventional probabilistic methods, and simulation-based techniques, which explicitly account for time-dependent processes. The primary intention of this paper is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology and highlight the lessons learned while applying the two techniques while providing high-level results. This includes the global benefits and deficiencies of the methods and practical problems encountered during the implementation of each technique.

Grabaskas, David↗

Spatial modeling algorithms for reactions and transport in biological cells

Biological cells rely on precise spatiotemporal coordination of biochemical reactions to control their functions. Such cell signaling networks have been a common focus for mathematical models, but they remain challenging to simulate, particularly in realistic cell geometries. Here we present Spatial Modeling Algorithms for Reactions and Transport (SMART), a software package that takes in high-level user specifications about cell signaling networks and then assembles and solves the associated mathematical systems. SMART uses state-of-the-art finite element analysis, via the FEniCS Project software, to efficiently and accurately resolve cell signaling events over discretized cellular and subcellular geometries. We demonstrate its application to several different biological systems, including yes-associated protein (YAP)/PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) mechanotransduction, calcium signaling in neurons and cardiomyocytes, and ATP generation in mitochondria. Throughout, we utilize experimentally derived realistic cellular geometries represented by well-conditioned tetrahedral meshes. These scenarios demonstrate the applicability, flexibility, accuracy and efficiency of SMART across a range of temporal and spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Wettability and capillary effects: Dynamics of pinch-off in unconstricted straight capillary tubes

We study the interfacial evolution of immiscible two-phase flow within a capillary tube in the partial wetting regime using direct numerical simulation. We investigate the flow patterns resulting from the displacement of a more viscous fluid by a less viscous one under a wide range of wettability conditions. We find that beyond a wettability dependent critical capillary number, a uniform displacement by a less viscous fluid can transition into a growing finger that eventually breaks up into discrete blobs by a series of pinch-off events for both wetting and non-wetting contact angles. This study validates previous experimental observations of pinch-off for wetting contact angles and extends those to non-wetting contact angles. We find that the blob length increases with the capillary number. We observe that the time between consecutive pinch-off events decreases with the capillary number and is greater for more wetting conditions in the displaced phase. Here, we further show that the blob separation distance as a function of the difference between the inlet velocity and the contact line speed collapses into two monotonically decreasing curves for wetting and non-wetting contact angles. For the phase separation in the form of pinch-off, this work provides a quantitative study of the emerging length and time scales and their dependence on the wettability conditions, capillary effects, and viscous forces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithm for Evaluation of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation Systems

Use of inverter-based resources facilitating renewable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing rapidly with decreasing costs and reduced emissions associated. To accommodate such rapid growth of inverter-based resources like PV systems, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation models of both PV systems and grids are required to analyze the interaction of PVs in the grid (like the post-event analysis). In addition, the EMT simulation would help with the planning of future power grid with a large number of PVs as well as other inverter-based distributed generation systems. In this paper, the EMT simulation models of PV systems and grids are developed based on the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) representing their EMT dynamics. Furthermore, advanced simulation algorithms including numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization, DAE clustering and aggregation, multi-order integration, and matrix splitting approaches are applied to accelerate the EMT simulation. The proposed algorithm was applied to 125 PV inverters within 52-bus medium-voltage (MV) distribution grid.

Choi, Jongchan↗