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NASA NTRS1986

Dislocation model for aseismic crustal deformation at Hollister, California

A model of crustal deformation during the interseismic phase is developed and applied (using the improved Bayesian inversion algorithm described by Jackson and Matsu'ura, 1985) to trilateration data for the USGS Hollister (CA) network. In the model, rigid blocks in motion relative to each other experience friction only in a brittle upper zone, while their ductile lower zones slide freely; the Hollister model comprises five blocks and nine rectangular fault patches. The data and results are presented in tables, graphs, and maps and characterized in detail. The model predicts steady block motion on time scales between 10 yr and 1 Myr, with net motion across the San Andreas/Calaveras fault system 38 + or - 3 mm/yr and brittle/ductile transition depths ranging from 0.4 to 11 km. Two San Andreas segments with higher probabilities of moderate-to-large earthquakes are identified.

Matsuura, Mitsuhiro↗