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At least 235 records · Page 13

Electrification of Pakistan's Transport System: Modeling Electric Vehicle Penetration and Energy Supply Chain Impacts

Initial analysis of the National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) of Pakistan was undertaken by an integrated energy planning team from November 2019 through August 2020. This technical reference document seeks to present the background, inputs and assumptions, methodology, and results of the policy analysis in detail. The intended audience is the technical modeler, analyst, or reviewer who seeks to understand specifically the modeling effort within this initial analytical phase, with the end-goal of interpreting, re-producing, or modifying the simulations or extending the models to conduct follow-on studies subsequently. These studies may examine in greater detail the energy sector, impacts to emissions, charging station infrastructure needs, and overall benefits-cost trade of the policy, among other areas of interest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Why Regional and Long-Haul Trucks are Primed for Electrification Now

Zero emission freight trucks are needed to both improve public health and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions but at the same time are generally believed to be uneconomical. However, recent dramatic declines in battery prices and improvement in their energy density have created opportunities for battery-electric trucking today that were seldom anticipated just a few years ago. At the current global average battery pack price of $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (realizable when procured at scale), a Class 8 electric truck with 375-mile range and operated 300 miles per day when compared to a diesel truck offers about 13% lower total cost of ownership (TCO) per mile, about 3-year payback and net present savings of about US $200,000 over a 15-year lifetime. This is achieved with only a 3% reduction in payload capacity. Even this small penalty can be reversed cost-effectively through light-weighting, in any case, only matters for a small fraction of trucks which regularly utilize their maximum payload. Electric trucks appear poised to also meet the performance demands for a large share of regional and long-haul trucking today. The estimated average distance traveled between 30- minute driver breaks is 150 miles and 190 miles for regional-haul and long-haul trucks respectively in the US. Thirty minutes of charging using 500 kW or mega-Watt scale fastchargers would add sufficient range without impairing operations and economics of freight movement. However, as with almost any clean technology, higher upfront capital costs of both vehicles and charging infrastructure are major barriers when electric trucking is in its infancy. Without strong policy support, coordinated investments in both vehicle manufacturing and fuel infrastructure will not be forthcoming on the scale needed to harness the true potential of battery electric trucks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Powertrain Electrification and Fleet Demonstration

The Contract Award Grant # EE0007513 dated 2 June, 2016 is for the design, development and demonstration of medium duty package delivery vehicles that will result in a 100% increase in fuel economy as measured in miles per gallon. The project was proposed in 3 phases over two budget periods. The Phases were: 1. Modeling and Simulation – This phase was completed and formed the basis of the specifications for the design and build of the physical systems. The modeling and simulation was conducted by AVL and used real world package delivery routes that AVL mapped. The motors, battery pack, range extender and balance of plant support systems were modeled and iterated until a system with the desired fuel economy improvement was realized. Early design of the major subsystems using the actual vehicle space constraints was also completed. This phase was successfully completed in May of 2017. 2. 1st Build and FE Confirmation - This phase was completed and resulted in the final design, release, procurement and build of all major vehicle systems for commissioning into the first vehicle. The work was a partnered effort between McLaren and AVL. McLaren built the eAxle system while AVL built the range extender and integrated the range extender, battery and balance of plant sub-systems into the first vehicle with a control system to make it operate. Prior to the end of this phase a real world HIL system test gave evidence that the fuel economy improvement would be achieved in the real world. This phase was exited with a 7 month delay due mostly to procurement and supply base issues and ended in May, 2018. 3. Final Build and Demonstration - This phase included the final build and commissioning of the four program vehicles and the operation of a demonstration on a set of routes near San Diego California. During this phase, a multitude of issues arose in different systems in the vehicle. These issue resolution exercises were quite complex and caused repeated delays but were all successfully completed. It should also be noted that an early commercialization analysis resulted in the conclusion that the complexity of the system would not make it cost effective, leading to the start of a follow-on design that used newly available component technologies to specify a more cost effective system. This design will be repurposed and put into demonstration on a separately (non-DOE) funded program. It was decided and agreed with DOE that this phase should be considered completed. The knowledge and know-how gained on this program has been incorporated into and transferred to the new program. This phase and the entire program was considered closed on June 1, 2021.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrification: 2023 Final Progress Report

This project proposes to develop a high-power density, high speed traction motor architecture called QMag, driven by a high-power density motor drive inverter using silicon carbide semiconductor devices. This new architecture will achieve the efficiency and power density targets by means of innovative winding and rotor structures, high bandwidth controls, and advanced thermal management solutions. The project team will pursue the goals of the project systematically, through Finite Element Analysis for machine design, through simulation and co-simulation techniques for power electronics and controls evaluation, and finally system design, fabrication, testing and evaluation. If this project successfully achieves and demonstrates the DOE targets for power density, cost, and reliability, the technology has the potential to become a core enabler of the flagship higher power product portfolio in commercial traction businesses, which has so far been confined to DC, induction, Brush Less DC (BLDC), Permanent Magnet AC (PMAC), and reluctance machines.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Navigating Options for Transportation Electrification and Solar Charging: Steps and Lessons Learned in Montana Communities

This document is intended to assist communities who are considering investing in electric transportation. It can assist communities engage stakeholders, prioritize community goals, assess electric transportation options, and navigate complex decisions about deploying zero emission electric transportation in their community. It covers technological, economic and environmental aspects of the transition to electric vehicles (EV), and highlights the specific considerations related to the deployment of renewable energy technologies (e.g., distributed solar) in combination with EV supply equipment (EVSE, e.g., charging stations). There are many important decisions to make and questions for communities to ask themselves as they consider electric vehicle types, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation options. This guide will help communities assess: (1) Which stage in the decision-making process they are in with respect to EV deployment; (2) Questions they can explore to guide their decisions about EV deployment; (3) How to engage key stakeholders on EV deployment options; (4) Tradeoffs and benefits of various electric transportation options and; (5) Synergies of pairing electric vehicle charging and renewable energy generation technologies. The analysis and lessons learned presented in this roadmap are intended to serve as a template and guide for similarly situated communities across the country who want to prepare for and play a role in the electrified transportation future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Microwave Absorbing Perovskite Catalysts for Efficient Electrification of Syngas Production from CO2 and Methane

Microwave absorbing catalysts have the potential to make thermal reactions such as methane reforming (CH4 + CO2 + H2O → H2 + CO) into carbon negative processes when coupled with decarbonized electricity. Due to microwaves directly heating the catalyst rather than heating the reactor and gases, even high temperature reactions such as dry reforming methane (DRM, CH4 + CO2 → H2 + CO) can be achieved rapidly, efficiently, and on-demand, ideal for coupling with intermittent renewable electricity. However, microwave catalysts present unique design challenges due to the same material needing to both efficiently absorb microwaves in oxidative and reductive reaction conditions and be an efficient and stable catalyst in inherently non-isothermal reactors. We screened from over 28 catalysts in the La0.8Sr0.2(Co-Ni-Mn)O3 perovskite solid-solution family to determine promising microwave reforming catalysts and identify design principles for effective materials. The best performing catalyst candidate was able to produce syngas ratios (H2:CO) from 1-3, and scale up testing showed CO and H2 production efficiencies rivaling conventional carbon intensive steam reforming efficiencies at the liters per minute level of production.

Marin, Christopher↗

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Vehicle Data for Analysis of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electrification [Slides]

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are a major source of greenhouse gases and local criteria air pollutants. Electrifying MHDVs may reduce these harmful emissions, but understanding MHDV operations is a necessary first step to decarbonizing them. In February 2024, NREL released a public dataset and accompanying technical report describing the subset of MHDV operating patterns that may originate from a consistent depot each day and rely on the same depot for charging if electrified (NREL/TP-5400-88241). This presentation provides a brief overview of that dataset and technical report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy-Transit Nexus Tools for Bus Fleet Electrification (NEXTBUS)

NEXTBUS is an open-source software project that integrates NLR's bus energy modeling and simulation tools with multi-objective optimization for fleet operations. NLR is collaborating with a transit technology startup, ReVolt, to commercialize these capabilities by deploying NEXTBUS in ReVolt's software platform. The goal is to manage the added complexities of running a heterogeneous fleet, encompassing battery electric and diesel buses, across a large, multi-depot transit network.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact analysis of heating electrification in US buildings with geothermal heat pumps

Few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs, also called ground source heat pumps) on the electric grid. GHPs utilize the ground as a heat source to warm buildings more efficiently than other space-heating systems. The coupling with the ground offers seasonal thermal storage so that GHPs can also cool buildings in summer more efficiently than other space-cooling systems. This study simulated the performance of GHP systems for various commercial and residential buildings in 15 climate zones in the United States. Combined with the latest End-Use Load Profiles of the US building stock and grid modeling, this study aims to assess the impacts of a national deployment of GHP systems on the US electric grid in terms of energy consumption, emissions, and operational resilience. The preliminary results show that the GHP deployment can save 429 billion kWh of electricity (a 19% reduction from baseline) and reduce carbon emissions by 496 million tons per year (a 31 % reduction from baseline). A geographical view of the results indicates that retrofitting existing HVAC systems with new GHP systems can lead to further reductions in annual electricity consumption and peak electricity demand in the southern regions of the United States than in other parts of the country. On the other hand, GHP retrofits result in higher percentages of site energy savings and carbon emission reduction in the north (cold climates) than in the south (warm climates).

Liu, Xiaobing↗

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

Vehicle Electrification Impacts on Energy Consumption for Different Connected-Autonomous Vehicle Scenario Runs

Transportation system simulation is a widely accepted approach to evaluate the impact of transport policy deployment. In developing a transportation system deployment model, the energy impact of the model is extremely valuable for sustainability and validation. It is expected that different penetration levels of Connected-Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) will impact travel behavior due to changes in potential factors such as congestion, miles traveled, etc. Along with such impact analyses, it is also important to further quantify the regional energy impact of CAV deployment under different factors of interest. The objective of this paper is to study the energy consumption of electrified vehicles in the future for different penetration levels of CAVs deployment in the City of Chicago. The paper will further provide a statistical analysis of the results to evaluate the impact of the different penetration levels on the different electrified powertrains used in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗