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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
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DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ensemble-based enzyme design can recapitulate the effects of laboratory directed evolution in silico

The creation of artificial enzymes is a key objective of computational protein design. Although de novo enzymes have been successfully designed, these exhibit low catalytic efficiencies, requiring directed evolution to improve activity. Here, we use room-temperature X-ray crystallography to study changes in the conformational ensemble during evolution of the designed Kemp eliminase HG3 (k cat /K M 146 M -1 s -1 ). We observe that catalytic residues are increasingly rigidified, the active site becomes better pre-organized, and its entrance is widened. Based on these observations, we engineer HG4, an efficient biocatalyst (k cat /K M 103,000 M -1 s -1 ) containing key first and second-shell mutations found during evolution. HG4 structures reveal that its active site is pre-organized and rigidified for efficient catalysis. Our results show how directed evolution circumvents challenges inherent to enzyme design by shifting conformational ensembles to favor catalytically-productive sub-states, and suggest improvements to the design methodology that incorporate ensemble modeling of crystallographic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble

Abstract The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K −1 ), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.

Norris, Jesse (ORCID:0000000289883326)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extended experimental inferential structure determination method in determining the structural ensembles of disordered protein states

Proteins with intrinsic or unfolded state disorder comprise a new frontier in structural biology, requiring the characterization of diverse and dynamic structural ensembles. Here we introduce a comprehensive Bayesian framework, the Extended Experimental Inferential Structure Determination (X-EISD) method, which calculates the maximum log-likelihood of a disordered protein ensemble. X-EISD accounts for the uncertainties of a range of experimental data and back-calculation models from structures, including NMR chemical shifts, J-couplings, Nuclear Overhauser Effects (NOEs), paramagnetic relaxation enhancements (PREs), residual dipolar couplings (RDCs), hydrodynamic radii (R h ), single molecule fluorescence Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). We apply X-EISD to the joint optimization against experimental data for the unfolded drkN SH3 domain and find that combining a local data type, such as chemical shifts or J-couplings, paired with long-ranged restraints such as NOEs, PREs or smFRET, yields structural ensembles in good agreement with all other data types if combined with representative IDP conformers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble voting-based fault classification and location identification for a distribution system with microgrids using smart meter measurements

This study presents an ensemble learning approach for fault classification and location identification in a smart distribution network containing photovoltaics (PV)-based microgrid. Lack of available data points and the unbalanced nature of the distribution system make fault handling a challenging task for utilities. The proposed method uses event-driven voltage data from smart meters to classify and locate faults. The ensemble voting classifier is composed of three base learners; random forest, k-nearest neighbours, and artificial neural network. The fault location (FL) task has been formulated as a classification problem where the fault type is classified in the first step and based on the fault type, the faulty bus is identified. The method is tested on IEEE-123 bus system modified with added PV-based microgrid along with dynamic loading conditions and varying fault resistances from 0 to 20 Ω for both unbalanced and balanced fault types. A further sensitivity analysis has been done to test the robustness of the proposed method under various noise levels and data loss errors in the smart meter measurements. The ensemble method shows improved performance and robustness compared to some previously proposed FL methods. Finally, the proposed method has been experimentally validated on a real-time simulation-based testbed using a state-of-the-art digital real-time simulator, industry standard DNP3 communication protocol and a cpu-based control centre running the FL algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rationalization of promoted reverse water gas shift reaction by Pt 3 Ni alloy: Essential contribution from ensemble effect

Bimetallic alloys have attracted considerable attention due to the tunable catalytic activity and selectivity that can be different from those of pure metals. Here, we study the superior catalytic behaviors of the Pt 3 Ni nanowire (NW) over each individual, Pt and Ni NWs during the reverse Water Gas Shift (rWGS) reaction, using density functional theory. The results show that the promoted rWGS activity by Pt3Ni strongly depends on the ensemble effect (a particular arrangement of active sites introduced by alloying), while the contributions from ligand and strain effects, which are of great importance in electrocatalysis, are rather subtle. As a result, a unique Ni–Pt hybrid ensemble is observed at the 110/111 edge of the Pt 3 Ni NW, where the synergy between Ni and Pt sites is active enough to stabilize carbon dioxide on the surface readily for the rWGS reaction but moderate enough to allow for the facile removal of carbon monoxide and hydrogenation of hydroxyl species. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of the ensemble effect in heterogeneous catalysis of metal alloys, enabling selective binding–tuning and promotion of catalytic activity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory for electrons: Algebraic recursive definitions, second-quantized derivation, linked-diagram theorem, general-order algorithms, and grand canonical and canonical ensembles

A comprehensive and detailed account is presented for the finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory for electrons that expands in power series all thermodynamic functions on an equal footing. Algebraic recursions in the style of the Rayleigh–Schrödinger perturbation theory are derived for the grand potential, chemical potential, internal energy, and entropy in the grand canonical ensemble and for the Helmholtz energy, internal energy, and entropy in the canonical ensemble, leading to their sum-over-states analytical formulas at any arbitrary order. For the grand canonical ensemble, these sum-over-states formulas are systematically transformed to sum-over-orbitals reduced analytical formulas by the quantum-field-theoretical techniques of normal-ordered second quantization and Feynman diagrams extended to finite temperature. It is found that the perturbation corrections to energies entering the recursions have to be treated as a nondiagonal matrix, whose off-diagonal elements are generally nonzero within a subspace spanned by degenerate Slater determinants. They give rise to a unique set of linked diagrams—renormalization diagrams—whose resolvent lines are displaced upward, which are distinct from the well-known anomalous diagrams of which one or more resolvent lines are erased. A linked-diagram theorem is introduced that proves the size-consistency of the finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory at any order. General-order algorithms implementing the recursions establish the convergence of the perturbation series toward the finite-temperature full-configuration-interaction limit unless the series diverges. As a result, the normal-ordered Hamiltonian at finite temperature sheds light on the relationship between the finite-temperature Hartree–Fock and first-order many-body perturbation theories.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

A method for examining ensemble averaging forms during the transition to turbulence in HED systems for application to RANS models

This paper discusses a strategy to initialize a two-dimensional (2D) Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model [LANL's Besnard–Harlow–Rauenzahn (BHR) model] in order to describe an unsteady transitional Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM)-induced flow observed in on-going high-energy-density ensemble experiments performed on the OMEGA-EP facility. The experiments consist of a nominal single-mode perturbation (initial amplitude a 0 ≈ 10 and wavelength $λ$ = 100μm) with target-to-target variations in the surface roughness subjected to the RM instability with delayed Rayleigh–Taylor in a heavy-to-light configuration. Our strategy leverages high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) implicit large eddy simulations (ILES) simulations to initialize BHR-relevant parameters and subsequently validate the 2D BHR results against the 3D ILES simulations. A suite of five 3D ILES simulations corresponding to five experimental target profiles is undertaken to generate an ensemble dataset. Using ensemble averages from the 3D simulations to initialize the turbulent kinetic energy in the BHR model ( K 0 ) demonstrates the ability of the model to predict the time evolution of the interface as well as the density-specific-volume covariance, b . To quantify the sensitivity of the BHR results to the choice of K 0 and the initial turbulent length scale, S 0 , we execute a parameter sweep spanning four orders of magnitude for both S 0 and K 0 , generating a parameter space consisting of 26 simulations. The Pearson's correlation coefficient is used as a measure of discrepancy between the 2D BHR and 3D ILES simulations and reveals that the ranges 8≲S 0 ≲20 μm and 10 9 ≲K 0 ≲10 10 cm 2 /s 2 produce predictions that agree best with the 3D ILES results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward electron temperature profiles in hot-dense plasmas from x-ray spectral ensembles

High repetition rate laser systems enable new strategies for diagnosing plasma behavior with large datasets. Here, we define an ensemble technique that relies on randomized targeting of x-ray tracer micro-stripes. On each shot, a high-intensity laser pulse is focused on a solid target with Ti tracer stripes embedded in an Al foil, randomly targeting a micro-stripe, a portion of a stripe, or a gap between stripes. High-resolution, time-integrated x-ray spectrometers capture line emission from the portion of the micro-stripe that is heated to sufficiently high electron temperatures. Accumulation of many such cases is used to construct ensemble distributions of x-ray line intensities that encompass all relative offsets of the laser focus to the micro-stripe centers. Synthetic intensity distributions are likewise generated using collisional-radiative modeling. Bayesian fitting of modeled to measured intensity distributions establishes the most likely radial temperature profiles, enabling comparison to hydrodynamic models and calling into question the cylindrical symmetry of these micro-stripe-embedded systems. Ensemble techniques have significant potential for high-energy-density plasma diagnostics, especially with the advent of high repetition rate experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revealing the structure of a catalytic combustion active-site ensemble combining uniform nanocrystal catalysts and theory insights

Supported metal catalysts are extensively used in industrial and environmental applications. To improve their performance, it is crucial to identify the most active sites. This identification is, however, made challenging by the presence of a large number of potential surface structures that complicate such an assignment. Often, the active site is formed by an ensemble of atoms, thus introducing further complications in its identification. Being able to produce uniform structures and identify the ones that are responsible for the catalyst performance is a crucial goal. Here, we utilize a combination of uniform Pd/Pt nanocrystal catalysts and theory to reveal the catalytic active-site ensemble in highly active propene combustion materials. Using colloidal chemistry to exquisitely control nanoparticle size, we find that intrinsic rates for propene combustion in the presence of water increase monotonically with particle size on Pt-rich catalysts, suggesting that the reaction is structure dependent. We also reveal that water has a near-zero or mildly positive reaction rate order over Pd/Pt catalysts. Theory insights allow us to determine that the interaction of water with extended terraces present in large particles leads to the formation of step sites on metallic surfaces. These specific step-edge sites are responsible for the efficient combustion of propene at low temperature. This work reveals an elusive geometric ensemble, thus clearly identifying the active site in alkene combustion catalysts. These insights demonstrate how the combination of uniform catalysts and theory can provide a much deeper understanding of active-site geometry for many applications

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-inspired spatiotemporal-graph AI ensemble for the detection of higher order wave mode signals of spinning binary black hole mergers

We present a new class of AI models for the detection of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers whose waveforms include the higher order gravitational wave modes ($\ell$, |m|) = {(2,2), (2,1), (3,3), (3,2), (4,4)}, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell$ = 3, |m| = 2 harmonics. These AI models combine hybrid dilated convolution neural networks to accurately model both short- and long-range temporal sequential information of gravitational waves; and graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among gravitational wave observatories to consistently describe and identify the presence of a signal in a three detector network encompassing the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. We first trained these spatiotemporal-graph AI models using synthetic noise, using 1.2 million modeled waveforms to densely sample this signal manifold, within 1.7 h using 256 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. This distributed training approach exhibited optimal classification performance, and strong scaling up to 512 NVIDIA A100 GPUs. With these AI ensembles we processed data from a three detector network, and found that an ensemble of 4 AI models achieves state-of-the-art performance for signal detection, and reports two misclassifications for every decade of searched data. We distributed AI inference over 128 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer and 128 nodes in the Theta supercomputer, and completed the processing of a decade of gravitational wave data from a three detector network within 3.5 h. Finally, we fine-tuned these AI ensembles to process the entire month of February 2020, which is part of the O3b LIGO/Virgo observation run, and found 6 gravitational waves, concurrently identified in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data, and zero false positives. This analysis was completed in one hour using one NVIDIA A100 GPU.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dressed-State Hamiltonian Engineering in a Strongly Interacting Solid-State Spin Ensemble

In quantum science applications, ranging from many-body physics to quantum metrology, dipolar interactions in spin ensembles are often controlled via Floquet engineering. However, this technique typically reduces the interaction strength between spins and effectively weakens the coupling to a target sensing field, limiting the metrological sensitivity. In this Letter, we develop and demonstrate an alternative method that directly tunes the native dipolar interaction in an ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in diamond, thereby overcoming these limitations inherent to Floquet engineering. Our approach utilizes dressed-state qubit encoding under a bias magnetic field applied perpendicular to the crystal lattice orientation. This method leads to a 3.2× enhancement of the dimensionless coherence parameter JT 2 compared to state-of-the-art Floquet engineering and a 2.6× (8.3 dB) enhanced sensitivity in ac magnetometry. Furthermore, our results provide a powerful Hamiltonian engineering tool for future studies with NV ensembles and other interacting higher-spin (S > $\frac{1}{2}$) systems.

Quantum control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining dark-matter ensembles with supernova data

The constraints on nonminimal dark sectors involving ensembles of unstable dark-matter species are well established and quite stringent in cases in which these species decay to visible-sector particles. Nevertheless, in cases in which these ensembles decay exclusively to other, lighter dark-sector states, the corresponding constraints are less well established. In this paper, we investigate how information about the expansion rate of the universe at low redshifts gleaned from observations of Type Ia supernovae can be used to constrain ensembles of unstable particles which decay primarily into dark radiation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory in the canonical ensemble

Benchmark data are presented for the zeroth- through third-order many-body perturbation corrections to the electronic Helmholtz energy, internal energy, and entropy in the canonical ensemble in a wide range of temperature. They are determined as numerical λ-derivatives of the respective quantities computed by thermal full configuration interaction with a perturbation-scaled Hamiltonian, $\hat{H} = \hat{H}_0 + λ\hat{V}$. Sum-over-states analytical formulas for up to the third-order corrections to these properties are also derived as analytical λ-derivatives. These formulas, which are verified by exact numerical agreement with the benchmark data, are given in terms of the Hirschfelder–Certain degenerate perturbation energies and should be valid for both degenerate and nondegenerate reference states at any temperature down to zero. Further, the results in the canonical ensemble are compared with the same in the grand canonical ensemble.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strongly Interacting, Two-Dimensional, Dipolar Spin Ensembles in (111)-Oriented Diamond

Systems of spins with strong dipolar interactions and controlled dimensionality enable new explorations in quantum sensing and simulation. In this work, we investigate the creation of strong dipolar interactions in a two-dimensional ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers generated via plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition on (111)-oriented diamond substrates. We find that diamond growth on the (111) plane yields high incorporation of spins, both nitrogen and NV centers, where the density of the latter is tunable via the miscut of the diamond substrate. Our process allows us to form dense, preferentially aligned, 2D NV ensembles with volume-normalized ac sensitivity down to η ac = 810 pT μ m 3 / 2 Hz − 1 / 2 . Furthermore, we show that (111) affords maximally positive dipolar interactions among a 2D NV ensemble, which is crucial for leveraging dipolar-driven entanglement schemes and exploring new interacting spin physics. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Hughes, Lillian B. (ORCID:0000000210201661)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient loading of reduced data ensembles produced at ORNL SNS/HFIR neutron time-of-flight facilities

We present algorithmic improvements to the loading operations of certain reduced data ensembles produced from neutron scattering experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) facilities. Ensembles from multiple measurements are required to cover a wide range of the phase space of a sample material of interest. They are stored using the standard NeXus schema on individual HDF5 files. This makes it a scalability challenge, as the number of experiments stored increases in a single ensemble file. The present work follows up on our previous efforts on data management algorithms, to address identified input output (I/O) bottlenecks in Mantid, an open-source data analysis framework used across several neutron science facilities around the world. We reuse an in-memory binary-tree metadata index that resembles data access patterns, to provide a scalable search and extraction mechanism. In addition, several memory operations are refactored and optimized for the current common use cases, ranging most frequently from 10 to 180, and up to 360 separate measurement configurations. Results from this work show consistent speed ups in wall-clock time on the Mantid LoadMD routine, ranging from 19% to 23% on average, on ORNL production computing systems. The latter depends on the complexity of the targeted instrument-specific data and the system I/O and compute variability for the shared computational resources available to users of ORNL’s Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) instruments. Nevertheless, we continue to highlight the need for more research to address reduction challenges as experimental data volumes, user time and processing costs increase.

Godoy, William↗