Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Delay Tolerant Network Routing

This dissertation discusses several machine learning techniques to improve routing in delay tolerant networks (DTNs). These are networks in which there may be long one-way trip times, asymmetric links, high error rates, and deterministic as well as non-deterministic loss of contact between network nodes, such as interplanetary satellite networks, mobile ad hoc networks and wireless sensor networks. This work uses historical network statistics to train a multi-label classifier to predict reliable paths through the network. In addition, a clustering technique is used to predict future mobile node locations. Both of these techniques are used to reduce the consumption of resources such as network bandwidth, memory and data storage that is required by replication routing methods often used in opportunistic DTN environments. Thesis contributions include: an emulation tool chain developed to create a DTN test bed for machine learning, the network and software architecture for a machine learning based routing method, the development and implementation of classification and clustering techniques and performance evaluation in terms of machine learning and routing metrics.

Dudukovich, Rachel M.↗

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir↗

Turbulent viscosity and Jupiter's tidal Q

A recent estimate of tidal dissipation by turbulent viscosity in Jupiter's convective interior predicts that the current value of the planet's tidal Q is roughly 5 million. We point out a fundamental error in this calculation, and show that turbulent dissipation alone implies that at present Q is about 50 trillion. Our reduced estimate for the rate of tidal dissipation shows conclusively that tidal torques have produced only negligible modifications of the orbits of the Galilean satellites over the age of the solar system.

Goldreich, P.↗

Application of a Physics-Based Stabilization Criterion to Flight System Thermal Testing

The theory shown here can provide thermal stability criteria based on physics and a goal steady state error rather than on an arbitrary "X% Q/mC(sub P)" method. The ability to accurately predict steady-state temperatures well before thermal balance is reached could be very useful during testing. This holds true for systems where components are changing temperature at different rates, although it works better for the components closest to the sink. However, the application to these test cases shows some significant limitations: This theory quickly falls apart if the thermal control system in question is tightly coupled to a large mass not accounted for in the calculations, so it is more useful in subsystem-level testing than full orbiter tests. Tight couplings to a fluctuating sink causes noise in the steady state temperature predictions.

Baker, Charles↗

Error-Rate Bounds for Coded PPM on a Poisson Channel

Equations for computing tight bounds on error rates for coded pulse-position modulation (PPM) on a Poisson channel at high signal-to-noise ratio have been derived. These equations and elements of the underlying theory are expected to be especially useful in designing codes for PPM optical communication systems. The equations and the underlying theory apply, more specifically, to a case in which a) At the transmitter, a linear outer code is concatenated with an inner code that includes an accumulator and a bit-to-PPM-symbol mapping (see figure) [this concatenation is known in the art as "accumulate-PPM" (abbreviated "APPM")]; b) The transmitted signal propagates on a memoryless binary-input Poisson channel; and c) At the receiver, near-maximum-likelihood (ML) decoding is effected through an iterative process. Such a coding/modulation/decoding scheme is a variation on the concept of turbo codes, which have complex structures, such that an exact analytical expression for the performance of a particular code is intractable. However, techniques for accurately estimating the performances of turbo codes have been developed. The performance of a typical turbo code includes (1) a "waterfall" region consisting of a steep decrease of error rate with increasing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at low to moderate SNR, and (2) an "error floor" region with a less steep decrease of error rate with increasing SNR at moderate to high SNR. The techniques used heretofore for estimating performance in the waterfall region have differed from those used for estimating performance in the error-floor region. For coded PPM, prior to the present derivations, equations for accurate prediction of the performance of coded PPM at high SNR did not exist, so that it was necessary to resort to time-consuming simulations in order to make such predictions. The present derivation makes it unnecessary to perform such time-consuming simulations.

Moision, Bruce↗

HOx Observation and Model Comparison During INTEX-A 2004

OH and HO2 were measured with the Airborne Tropospheric Hydrogen Oxides Sensor (ATHOS) as part of a large measurement suite from the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - A (INTEX-A). This mission, which was conducted mainly over North America and the western Atlantic Ocean in summer 2004, was an excellent test of atmospheric oxidation chemistry. Throughout the troposphere, observed OH was generally 0.60 of the modeled OH; below 8 km, observed HO2 was generally 0.78 of modeled HO2. If the over-prediction of tropospheric OH is not due to an instrument calibration error, then it implied less global tropospheric oxidation capacity and longer lifetimes for gases like methane and methyl chloroform than currently thought. This discrepancy falls well outside uncertainties in both the OH measurement and rate coefficients for known reactions and points to a large unknown OH loss. If the modeled OH is forced to agree with observed values by introducing of an undefined OH loss that removed HOx (HOx=OH+HO2), the observed and modeled HO2 and HO2/OH ratios are largely reconciled within the measurement uncertainty. HO2 behavior above 8 km was markedly different. The observed-to-modeled ratio correlating with NO. The observed-to-modeled HO2 ratio increased from approximately 1 at 8 km to more than approximately 2.5 at 11 km with the observed-to-modeled ratio correlating with NO. The observed-to-modeled HO2 and NO were both considerably greater than observations from previous campaigns. In addition, the observed-to-modeled HO2/OH, which is sensitive to cycling reactions between OH and HO2, increased from approximately 1.2 at 8 km to almost 4 above 11 km. In contrast to the lower atmosphere, these discrepancies above 8 km suggest a large unknown HOx source and additional reactants that cycle HOx from OH to HO2. In the continental planetary boundary layer, the OH observed-to-modeled ratio increased from 0.6 when isoprene was less than 0.1 ppbv to over 3 when isoprene was greater than 2 ppbv, suggesting that forests throughout the United States are emitting unknown HOx sources. Progress in resolving these discrepancies requires further examinations of possible unknown OH sinks and HOx sources and a focused research activity devoted to ascertaining the accuracy of the OH and HO2 measurements.

Ren, Xinrong↗

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Real-time monitoring of trace noble gases using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy—An investigation of the impact of bulk gas on plasma properties and sensitivity

The impact of Ar and He bulk gases on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) real-time monitoring of trace Xe and Kr was assessed. LIBS is being developed as a monitoring tool for measuring noble gas transport in molten salt systems, in which traditional sensors may face challenges associated with radiation, corrosive materials, and/or mixed phases. The plasma temperature and electron densities of LIBS plasmas were measured in both static and various flowing Ar and He streams (0–5 L min −1 ). The use of an Ar bulk gas resulted in higher plasma temperature, greater electron densities by an order of magnitude, and extended plasma lifetime compared with when He bulk gas was used. Gas flow rate was found to have little impact on plasma temperature; however, its effect on electron density was significant, indicating the need to consider flow rate–specific models. Matrix effects on emission peaks were reported for both bulk gases. Due to these matrix effects, multivariate models were developed for Xe and Kr ranging from 0 to 700 ppm in both bulk gases. Although the predictive behavior was similar (root mean square error of prediction ranging from 11.1 to 20.6 ppm), the limits of detection were superior in He (Xe: 22.9 ppm, Kr: 30.4 ppm). Furthermore, these models were employed in demonstrative real-time tests (>1 h), which showed strong predictive precision (relative standard deviation <5 %) regardless of the bulk gas. Ultimately, this study provides a guide for the considerations required when developing gaseous LIBS models for real-time monitoring.

Gas flow effects↗

On-orbit performance of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensors

The observed and measured on-orbit performance of various aspects of the fine guidance sensors is presented and discussed in the light of the original requirements and predictions. The fine guidance sensors are shown to meet or exceed the original requirements concerning dynamic pointing errors, photometric repeatability, and moving-target tracking capability. Calibration accuracy has been sufficient for observations to date, and fine-lock acquisitions are approaching a 100 percent success rate. Improvements to the fine-guidance-sensor tolerance of telescope spherical aberration, the South Atlantic anomaly, and solar-panel vibrations have been made, and further improvements are expected.

Eaton, David J.↗

A cryogenic muon tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors for superconducting quantum processors

Ionizing radiation has emerged as a potential limiting factor for superconducting quantum processors, inducing quasiparticle bursts and correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant operation. Atmospheric muons are particularly problematic due to their high energy and penetration power, making passive shielding ineffective. Therefore, monitoring the real-time muon flux is crucial to guide the development of alternative error-correction or mitigation strategies. We present the design, simulation, and first operation of a cryogenic muon-tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors (KIDs), developed as a stand-alone cryogenic particle-tagging module for superconducting quantum processors. The system consists of two KIDs arranged in a vertical stack and operated at ∼20 mK. Monte Carlo simulations based on Geant4 guided the prototype design and provided reference expectations for muon-tagging efficiency and accidental coincidences due to ambient γ-rays. We observed a muon-induced coincidence rate among the top and bottom detectors of (192 ± 9) $\times\,10^{-3}$ events s$^{−1}$, in excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo prediction. The prototype achieves a muon-tagging efficiency of about 90% with negligible dead time. These results demonstrate the feasibility of operating a muon-tagging system at millikelvin temperatures and represent a key step toward the integration of cryogenic veto systems with multi-qubit chips to mitigate muon-induced errors.

Mariani, Ambra [INFN, Rome] (ORCID:000000028184857↗

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗

Coupled Induction Machine and HVAC Models for Simulating HVAC Performance Considering Grid Dynamics in Buildings

This paper presents the development of novel models that integrate induction machines with HVAC equipment, such as pumps, heat pumps, and chillers, to analyze the impact of electrical parameters on the operational performance of thermo-fluid systems. The proposed model employs a coupling technique that captures the dynamic interactions between induction machines and HVAC systems. By integrating electrical, thermal, and mechanical dynamics, the models provide a comprehensive framework for simulating real-world scenarios, including interactions with the electrical grid. This achievement was made possible through the development of a Computationally Efficient and Accurate Induction Machine (CEAIM) model. Implemented using the equation-based Modelica language, the CEAIM model has been validated against experimental results, manufacturer data sheets, and various operating conditions. Its performance has been compared with existing induction machine models in the Modelica Standard Library (MSL), demonstrating superior accuracy and computational efficiency. The CEAIM model predicts torque, speed, and power consumption with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) ranging from 0.98 to 1 and a coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CVRMSE) between 0.27% and 6.67%. Additionally, CEAIM scales more efficiently than conventional MSL models, with a slower computational growth rate in large-scale simulations. After thorough validation of the CEAIM model, it was coupled with HVAC equipment as this approach provides a detailed multi-dimensional view of capturing electrical transients and mechanical performance. To support this, a case study was conducted to showcase its capabilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of radiation interference in the Voyager Sun Sensor's cadmium sulfide detector

The simulation of radiation interference effects and the results of a radiation interference test on two Voyager Sun Sensor prototype detector assemblies are reported. The derivation of test levels and requirements are discussed and show that cobalt 60 gamma radiation is an effective and practical simulator of the ionization dose rate effects induced by high-energy electron flux incident on the spacecraft at a rate of 3.7 x 10 to the 8th e/sq cm-sec (10 rad(Si)/s) during closest approach to Jupiter. The test results provide information that is used to confirm an analytic correlation, and to predict satisfactory performance of a spacecraft sun sensing device having stringent angular resolution requirements. The measured detector response shows that at dose rates incident on the detector elements of 2 rad(Si)/sec, which is four times that expected during Jupiter encounter, the radiation-induced angle error is almost an order of magnitude less than that allowed by the acceptance criteria.

Clarke, T. C.↗

Radiative transfer in cometary dust atmospheres: Critique of recent developments

The gas and dust production rates of comets near the sun are intimately linked to the fate of the solar radiation as it is scattered and partially absorbed by the cometary dust envelope or halo surrounding the comet's nucleus. The radiation of nuclear matter (mostly water ice) and the release of dust particles embedded in the ice which are entrained by the escaping gas and subsequently form a dust atmosphere or halo. On the other hand, the interaction of the dust cloud with the solar radiation is in turn responsible for the amount of radiative energy received by the nucleus and thus determines the evaporation rate. It is shown that recent attempts to formulate this problem quantitatively are in error. The correct formulation is given and it is pointed out that negative extinction (enhancement of the primary radiation received by the nucleus due to multiple scattering) may not be as large as predicted.

Vonroos, O.↗

Some practical universal noiseless coding techniques, part 3, module PSl14,K+

The algorithmic definitions, performance characterizations, and application notes for a high-performance adaptive noiseless coding module are provided. Subsets of these algorithms are currently under development in custom very large scale integration (VLSI) at three NASA centers. The generality of coding algorithms recently reported is extended. The module incorporates a powerful adaptive noiseless coder for Standard Data Sources (i.e., sources whose symbols can be represented by uncorrelated non-negative integers, where smaller integers are more likely than the larger ones). Coders can be specified to provide performance close to the data entropy over any desired dynamic range (of entropy) above 0.75 bit/sample. This is accomplished by adaptively choosing the best of many efficient variable-length coding options to use on each short block of data (e.g., 16 samples) All code options used for entropies above 1.5 bits/sample are 'Huffman Equivalent', but they require no table lookups to implement. The coding can be performed directly on data that have been preprocessed to exhibit the characteristics of a standard source. Alternatively, a built-in predictive preprocessor can be used where applicable. This built-in preprocessor includes the familiar 1-D predictor followed by a function that maps the prediction error sequences into the desired standard form. Additionally, an external prediction can be substituted if desired. A broad range of issues dealing with the interface between the coding module and the data systems it might serve are further addressed. These issues include: multidimensional prediction, archival access, sensor noise, rate control, code rate improvements outside the module, and the optimality of certain internal code options.

Rice, Robert F.↗

International Conference on Mesoscale Precipitation: Hydrologic and Meteorological Aspects, 3rd, College Station, TX, Feb. 27-Mar. 1, 1991, Proceedings

Papers presented in this volume discuss a mechanism causing mesoscale organizations of precipitation in midlatitude cyclones, the spatial variability of summer Florida precipitation and its impact on microwave radiometer rainfall-measurement systems, the relation between the mean areal rainfall and the fractional area where it rains above a given threshold, and a possible explanation for low correlation dimension estimates for the atmosphere. Attention is also given to a physically based simulation of radar rainfall data using a space-time rainfall model, the predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the tropics, and an intercomparison of tree satellite infrared rainfall techniques over Japan and surrounding waters. Other papers are on an evaluation of sampling errors of precipitation from spaceborne and ground sensors, an approach to the estimation of the areal rain-rate distribution from spaceborne radar by the use of multiple thresholds, and a comparison of two satellite-based rainfall algorithms using Pacific atoll raingage data.

Valdes, Juan B.↗

An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.

Albers, Cerese↗

What Reliability Engineers Should Know about Space Radiation Effects

Space radiation in space systems present unique failure modes and considerations for reliability engineers. Radiation effects is not a one size fits all field. Threat conditions that must be addressed for a given mission depend on the mission orbital profile, the technologies of parts used in critical functions and on application considerations, such as supply voltages, temperature, duty cycle, and redundancy. In general, the threats that must be addressed are of two types-the cumulative degradation mechanisms of total ionizing dose (TID) and displacement damage (DD). and the prompt responses of components to ionizing particles (protons and heavy ions) falling under the heading of single-event effects. Generally degradation mechanisms behave like wear-out mechanisms on any active components in a system: Total Ionizing Dose (TID) and Displacement Damage: (1) TID affects all active devices over time. Devices can fail either because of parametric shifts that prevent the device from fulfilling its application or due to device failures where the device stops functioning altogether. Since this failure mode varies from part to part and lot to lot, lot qualification testing with sufficient statistics is vital. Displacement damage failures are caused by the displacement of semiconductor atoms from their lattice positions. As with TID, failures can be either parametric or catastrophic, although parametric degradation is more common for displacement damage. Lot testing is critical not just to assure proper device fi.mctionality throughout the mission. It can also suggest remediation strategies when a device fails. This paper will look at these effects on a variety of devices in a variety of applications. This paper will look at these effects on a variety of devices in a variety of applications. (2) On the NEAR mission a functional failure was traced to a PIN diode failure caused by TID induced high leakage currents. NEAR was able to recover from the failure by reversing the current of a nearby Thermal Electric Cooler (turning the TEC into a heater). The elevated temperature caused the PIN diode to anneal and the device to recover. It was by lot qualification testing that NEAR knew the diode would recover when annealed. This paper will look at these effects on a variety of devices in a variety of applications. Single Event Effects (SEE): (1) In contrast to TID and displacement damage, Single Event Effects (SEE) resemble random failures. SEE modes can range from changes in device logic (single-event upset, or SEU). temporary disturbances (single-event transient) to catastrophic effects such as the destructive SEE modes, single-event latchup (SEL). single-event gate rupture (SEGR) and single-event burnout (SEB) (2) The consequences of nondestructive SEE modes such as SEU and SET depend critically on their application--and may range from trivial nuisance errors to catastrophic loss of mission. It is critical not just to ensure that potentially susceptible devices are well characterized for their susceptibility, but also to work with design engineers to understand the implications of each error mode. -For destructive SEE, the predominant risk mitigation strategy is to avoid susceptible parts, or if that is not possible. to avoid conditions under which the part may be susceptible. Destructive SEE mechanisms are often not well understood, and testing is slow and expensive, making rate prediction very challenging. (3) Because the consequences of radiation failure and degradation modes depend so critically on the application as well as the component technology, it is essential that radiation, component. design and system engineers work togetherpreferably starting early in the program to ensure critical applications are addressed in time to optimize the probability of mission success.

DiBari, Rebecca↗