Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Estimating Engine Airflow in Gas-Turbine Powered Aircraft with Clean and Distorted Inlet Flows

The P404-GF-400 Powered F/A-18A High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) was used to examine the impact of inlet-generated total-pressure distortion on estimating levels of engine airflow. Five airflow estimation methods were studied. The Reference Method was a fan corrected airflow to fan corrected speed calibration from an uninstalled engine test. In-flight airflow estimation methods utilized the average, or individual, inlet duct static- to total-pressure ratios, and the average fan-discharge static-pressure to average inlet total-pressure ratio. Correlations were established at low distortion conditions for each method relative to the Reference Method. A range of distorted inlet flow conditions were obtained from -10 deg. to +60 deg. angle of attack and -7 deg. to +11 deg. angle of sideslip. The individual inlet duct pressure ratio correlation resulted in a 2.3 percent airflow spread for all distorted flow levels with a bias error of -0.7 percent. The fan discharge pressure ratio correlation gave results with a 0.6 percent airflow spread with essentially no systematic error. Inlet-generated total-pressure distortion and turbulence had no significant impact on the P404-GE400 engine airflow pumping. Therefore, a speed-flow relationship may provide the best airflow estimate for a specific engine under all flight conditions.

Williams, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interrelationships among methods of estimating microbial biomass across multiple soil orders and biomes

Understanding the role of soil microbes is critical to ecosystem processes, and more thorough comparisons of measurement proxies for soil microbial biomass could broaden the inclusion of explicit microbial parameterization in soil carbon cycling and earth system models. We measured physical, chemical, and biological data from eight soil orders representing 11 major biomes and four climate regions. Four prominent methods to measure microbial abundance—chloroform fumigation extraction (CFE), total DNA yield, gene copy number by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (GCN), and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA)—were compared to assess their relationships with each other and with soil characteristics. Correlations were observed when comparing methods, with CFE correlating strongly with total DNA yield, GCN, and PLFA; CFE with bacterial GCN and bacterial PLFA; and to a lesser extent, total PLFA and total DNA yield. Correlations improved with the removal of organic soils (Histosols, Gelisols). Comparisons involving extracted DNA were improved by correcting for clay content, due to DNA extraction inefficiencies in clay-rich soils. Correlations involving fungi (PLFA or GCN) were always less significant. These methods could serve as reliable, inter-relatable proxies for the estimation of total soil microbial biomass while recognizing that the proxies are less effective at parsing differences between bacteria and fungi. Here, we provide specific equations to relate measures of soil microbial biomass by these four different methods to enable microbial models to utilize a greater diversity of observed data sources in parameterizations and simulations. Caveats for the equations and their values are also discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

Bayes Theorem↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-dimensional and permutation invariant anomaly detection

Methods for anomaly detection of new physics processes are often limited to low-dimensional spaces due to the difficulty of learning high-dimensional probability densities. Particularly at the constituent level, incorporating desirable properties such as permutation invariance and variable-length inputs becomes difficult within popular density estimation methods. In this work, we introduce a permutation-invariant density estimator for particle physics data based on diffusion models, specifically designed to handle variable-length inputs. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology by utilizing the learned density as a permutation-invariant anomaly detection score, effectively identifying jets with low likelihood under the background-only hypothesis. To validate our density estimation method, we investigate the ratio of learned densities and compare to those obtained by a supervised classification algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1989

A method for estimating the mass properties of a manipulator by measuring the reaction moments at its base

Emulating on earth the weightlessness of a manipulator floating in space requires knowledge of the manipulator's mass properties. A method for calculating these properties by measuring the reaction forces and moments at the base of the manipulator is described. A manipulator is mounted on a 6-DOF sensor, and the reaction forces and moments at its base are measured for different positions of the links as well as for different orientations of its base. A procedure is developed to calculate from these measurements some combinations of the mass properties. The mass properties identified are not sufficiently complete for computed torque and other dynamic control techniques, but do allow compensation for the gravitational load on the links, and for simulation of weightless conditions on a space emulator. The algorithm has been experimentally demonstrated on a PUMA 260 and used to measure the independent combinations of the 16 mass parameters of the base and three proximal links.

West, Harry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power system inertia estimation: Review of methods and the impacts of converter-interfaced generations

Understanding and quantifying the inertia of power systems with the integration of converter-interfaced generation (CIG) plays an essential role in the safe transition to a future low-inertia scenario. Here we provide a comprehensive summary of inertia definitions for both synchronous generators and CIGs as well as their corresponding estimation methods. In particular, the estimation methods are categorized as model-based and measurement-based approaches considering both small and large disturbances. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods are carefully discussed. This paper also offers for the first time a framework to quantify the virtual inertia of CIGs at the component and aggregation levels, an open problem in the literature. Finally, future directions for inertia estimation are identified and discussed. This significantly benefits the design of appropriate control and protection schemes in achieving a more reliable, secure, and resilient power system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed graphical neural network for power system state estimation

State estimation is highly critical for accurately observing the dynamic behavior of the power grids and minimizing risks from cyber threats. However, existing state estimation methods encounter challenges in accurately capturing power system dynamics, primarily because of limitations in encoding the grid topology and sparse measurements. Here, this paper proposes a physics-informed graphical learning state estimation method to address these limitations by leveraging both domain physical knowledge and a graph neural network (GNN). We employ a GNN architecture that can handle the graph-structured data of power systems more effectively than traditional data-driven methods. The physics-based knowledge is constructed from the branch current formulation, making the approach adaptable to both transmission and distribution systems. The validation results of three IEEE test systems show that the proposed method can achieve lower mean square error more than 20% than the conventional methods.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops a machine learning based approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurement. The machine learning model is developed by using random forest algorithm. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

advanced metering infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops an approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurements. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements: Preprint

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops an approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurements. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Method for Estimating Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Generation in Hawaii

Due to the increasing penetration of distributed behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems and the installed utility revenue metering limited to monitoring only the net power import/export of the household, it is increasingly challenging for utilities to effectively plan and operate the grid. This paper proposes a methodology that estimates behind-the-meter PV generation using a selected subset of monitored PV systems. It is a data-driven approach, and the PV output is estimated utilizing a statistic regression model. A Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm is applied to preselect the optimal subset of the monitored PV systems. The performance of this approach is compared with a spatial interpolation method and a model-based approach. The proposed method is validated using high-resolution meter data recorded from 18 residential rooftop PV systems located on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Data-driven modeling↗
NASA NTRS2015

Analytic Method to Estimate Particle Acceleration in Flux Ropes

The mechanism that accelerates particles to the energies required to produce the observed high-energy emission in solar flares is not well understood. Drake et al. (2006) proposed a kinetic mechanism for accelerating electrons in contracting magnetic islands formed by reconnection. In this model, particles that gyrate around magnetic field lines transit from island to island, increasing their energy by Fermi acceleration in those islands that are contracting. Based on these ideas, we present an analytic model to estimate the energy gain of particles orbiting around field lines inside a flux rope (2.5D magnetic island). We calculate the change in the velocity of the particles as the flux rope evolves in time. The method assumes a simple profile for the magnetic field of the evolving island; it can be applied to any case where flux ropes are formed. In our case, the flux-rope evolution is obtained from our recent high-resolution, compressible 2.5D MHD simulations of breakout eruptive flares. The simulations allow us to resolve in detail the generation and evolution of large-scale flux ropes as a result of sporadic and patchy reconnection in the flare current sheet. Our results show that the initial energy of particles can be increased by 2-5 times in a typical contracting island, before the island reconnects with the underlying arcade. Therefore, particles need to transit only from 3-7 islands to increase their energies by two orders of magnitude. These macroscopic regions, filled with a large number of particles, may explain the large observed rates of energetic electron production in flares. We conclude that this mechanism is a promising candidate for electron acceleration in flares, but further research is needed to extend our results to 3D flare conditions.

Energetic particle acceleration↗
NASA NTRS1994

Microbial community structure at the U.S.-Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Station ALOHA: Inverse methods for estimating biochemical indicator ratios

Modeling biogeochemical fluxes in the marine plankton requires the application of factors for extrapolation of biomass indicators measured in the field (chlorophyll a, adenosine triphosphate, bacterial counts) to biomass carbon or nitrogen. These are often inferred from culture studies and are poorly constrained for natural populations. At least squares inverse method with a simple linear model constrains the values of several common indicator ratios, giving self-consistent solutions that provide useful information about the structure of the microbial community at our North Pacific Ocean study site (Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment)). These results indicate that the fraction of the microbial biomass that is autotrophic (pigmented) is greater in the mixed layer than at the deep chlorophyll maximum layer and that heterotrophic bacteria are a significant but not necessarily predominant component of the microbial community in the euphotic zone.

Christian, James R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of software methods for estimating protein-protein relative binding affinities

A growing number of computational tools have been developed to accurately and rapidly predict the impact of amino acid mutations on protein-protein relative binding affinities. Such tools have many applications, for example, designing new drugs and studying evolutionary mechanisms. In the search for accuracy, many of these methods employ expensive yet rigorous molecular dynamics simulations. By contrast, non-rigorous methods use less exhaustive statistical mechanics, allowing for more efficient calculations. However, it is unclear if such methods retain enough accuracy to replace rigorous methods in binding affinity calculations. This trade-off between accuracy and computational expense makes it difficult to determine the best method for a particular system or study. Here, eight non-rigorous computational methods were assessed using eight antibody-antigen and eight non-antibody-antigen complexes for their ability to accurately predict relative binding affinities (ΔΔG) for 654 single mutations. In addition to assessing accuracy, we analyzed the CPU cost and performance for each method using a variety of physico-chemical structural features. This allowed us to posit scenarios in which each method may be best utilized. Most methods performed worse when applied to antibody-antigen complexes compared to non-antibody-antigen complexes. Rosetta-based JayZ and EasyE methods classified mutations as destabilizing (ΔΔG < -0.5 kcal/mol) with high (83–98%) accuracy and a relatively low computational cost for non-antibody-antigen complexes. Some of the most accurate results for antibody-antigen systems came from combining molecular dynamics with FoldX with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.46, but this was also the most computationally expensive method. Overall, our results suggest these methods can be used to quickly and accurately predict stabilizing versus destabilizing mutations but are less accurate at predicting actual binding affinities. This study highlights the need for continued development of reliable, accessible, and reproducible methods for predicting binding affinities in antibody-antigen proteins and provides a recipe for using current methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Off-policy Evaluation as a Prerequisite for Real-world Reinforcement Learning in Building Control

We present an initial study of off-policy evaluation (OPE), a problem prerequisite to real-world reinforcement learning (RL), in the context of building control. OPE is the problem of estimating a policy's performance without running it on the actual system, using historical data from the existing controller. It enables the control engineers to ensure a new, pretrained policy satisfies the performance requirements and safety constraints of a real-world system, prior to interacting with it. While many methods have been developed for OPE, no study has evaluated which ones are suitable for building operational data, which are generated by deterministic policies and have limited coverage of the state-action space. After reviewing existing works and their assumptions, we adopted the approximate model (AM) method. Furthermore, we used bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty and correct for bias. In a simulation study, we evaluated the proposed approach on 10 policies pretrained with imitation learning. On average, the AM method estimated the energy and comfort costs with 1.84% and 14.1% error, respectively.

Chen, B↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supervised Learning-Based Spatial Position Estimation with Vertical Displacement for Hovering UAV Wireless Power Transfer

This study presents a supervised learning-based spatial position estimation approach for wireless power transfer (WPT) systems supporting hovering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) charging. Unlike stationary charging scenarios, hovering UAVs introduce continuous lateral misalignment and vertical displacement, leading to variations in magnetic coupling and reduced power transfer efficiency. To address this challenge, the proposed method estimates the relative spatial position of the receiver coil using only electrical measurements obtained at the secondary side. A supervised learning model is trained to map output voltage and current features to spatial coordinates, enabling position awareness without requiring external sensors, vision systems, or communication links. The sensing functionality is inherently integrated into the WPT system, allowing simultaneous power transfer and localization through the same magnetic interface. Experimental validation is conducted on a laboratory-scale prototype under varying lateral offsets and air-gap conditions. In addition, spline-based interpolation is employed to increase spatial data density for training. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can capture spatial variations associated with both lateral and vertical displacement, providing reliable position estimation under hovering conditions. This work establishes a hardware-efficient, sensorless solution for UAV wireless charging and serves as a baseline for advanced data-driven position estimation methods in dynamic WPT systems.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗