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DOE OSTI2024

Ensuring Solution Uniqueness in Three-Phase Power System State Estimation

This paper is concerned with the issue of potential non-unique solutions in three-phase state estimation. Theory of observability analysis for positive sequence power system state estimation is based on certain assumptions that avoid possibility of multiple solutions. Also, it is shown that observability of a positive sequence network remains independent of the network parameters or the operating state. When extending single-phase observability analysis directly to the three-phase case, this paper considers the possibility of converging to multiple solutions, i.e. solution non-uniqueness, even for cases where state estimator successfully converges. The study illustrates via numerical examples the likelihood of converging to entirely different solutions for certain network parameters. It also examines how the operating state, particularly under unbalanced loading, leads to solution non-uniqueness. The paper then describes an alternative approach to ensure a unique solution in three-phase state estimation. This method aims to accurately and uniquely estimate the state of any unbalanced three-phase system, irrespective of load imbalance, network configuration, existence of synchronous generators or transformers.

Power System State Estimation, Three-Phase, Distri↗

DOE OSTI2021

TP099-CT-800DR Comparison Between SIRZ-2 and Surface Fit Method ($ρ_{e},Ζ_{e}$) Estimation

The primary objective of this test plan is to acquire dual-energy computed tomography (CT) data of 33 well-known specimens using the Leidos Reveal CT-80DR+ baggage scanner housed at LLNL (hereafter referred to as CT-80DR). These data sets will allow us to compare, for each specimen, the accuracy and precision of electron density ($ρ_{e}$) and effective atomic number ($Z_{e}$) estimates obtained from two different algorithmic methods— from TSL’s surface fits and from LLNL’s SIRZ-2 decomposition. A secondary objective is to determine how often it is necessary to acquire CT-80DR spectral response information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tool for Developing Integrated Strategies for Decontamination and Waste Management - 20291

Management of waste from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents is complicated by the fact that decontamination decisions have a profound impact on the characteristics of resulting waste streams. Wide-area biological and radiological incidents could produce massive quantities of waste that may need to be treated on-site and sent for subsequent disposal as non-contaminated materials, or else be directly disposed of as contaminated materials. The EPA has developed the Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) for characterizing and quantifying biological and radiological waste that may be generated from decontamination efforts. This paper focuses on the WEST's uses for radiological incidents. WEST combines Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of externally-supplied plume data, infrastructure databases derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus tool [1], and satellite imagery surface recognition algorithms to combine the composition and square footage of the buildings in the plume with estimates of the materials between the buildings in the plume. The resulting GIS data files are then imported into a Microsoft Access database application, where they are combined with information about the nature and concentration of contaminants, and then subjected to decontamination strategies for different contaminated surfaces. The tool provides estimates of the type and quantities of potential wastes resulting from simulated decontamination and/or demolition activities and includes estimates of the remaining contamination levels including residual contamination contained within each waste stream. Estimates are presented at several levels of detail, allowing users to obtain needed data at the desired resolution. These include estimates for the total affected area, estimates by contamination zone, estimates by decontamination method(s), and estimates by building type (occupancy classification). EPA is currently developing the next version of WEST which will include several substantial enhancements. The most significant improvement for the next version of WEST will include the ability for users to develop contamination scenarios and waste estimates based on previously developed, readily available, and geographically specific infrastructure data. Instead of using WEST's default infrastructure data based on FEMA's Hazus tool, users will be able to import their own building data specific to the geographically affected area. This capability may substantially decrease uncertainties in the resulting waste estimates because the results will be based on actual building data (numbers of each type, square footage, building height, etc.). Two other significant enhancements will be the ability to generate waste estimates for vehicles and biomass. In addition to building debris and building decontamination waste, vehicles and biomass will likely constitute a significant percentage of the total waste which may result from wide area contamination events. This presentation will present the most recent version of WEST, which includes such considerations as affected biomass (e.g., trees), vehicles, and the ability to replace the default Hazus infrastructure databases with custom infrastructure databases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

D 3 -creatine dilution for skeletal muscle mass measurement: historical development and current status

The French chemist Michel Eugène Chevreul discovered creatine in meat two centuries ago. Extensive biochemical and physiological studies of this organic molecule followed with confirmation that creatine is found within the cytoplasm and mitochondria of human skeletal muscles. Two groups of investigators exploited these relationships five decades ago by first estimating the creatine pool size in vivo with 14 C and 15 N labelled isotopes. Skeletal muscle mass (kg) was then calculated by dividing the creatine pool size (g) by muscle creatine concentration (g/kg) measured on a single muscle biopsy or estimated from the literature. This approach for quantifying skeletal muscle mass is generating renewed interest with the recent introduction of a practical stable isotope (creatine-(methyl-d 3 )) dilution method for estimating the creatine pool size across the full human lifespan. The need for a muscle biopsy has been eliminated by assuming a constant value for whole-body skeletal muscle creatine concentration of 4.3 g/kg wet weight. The current single compartment model of estimating creatine pool size and skeletal muscle mass rests on four main assumptions: tracer absorption is complete; tracer is all retained; tracer is distributed solely in skeletal muscle; and skeletal muscle creatine concentration is known and constant. Three of these assumptions are false to varying degrees. Not all tracer is retained with urinary isotope losses ranging from 0% to 9%; an empirical equation requiring further validation is used to correct for spillage. Not all tracer is distributed in skeletal muscle with non-muscle creatine sources ranging from 2% to 10% with a definitive value lacking. Lastly, skeletal muscle creatine concentration is not constant and varies between muscles (e.g. 3.89–4.62 g/kg), with diets (e.g. vegetarian and omnivore), across age groups (e.g. middle-age, ~4.5 g/kg; old-age, 4.0 g/kg), activity levels (e.g. athletes, ~5 g/kg) and in disease states (e.g. muscular dystrophies, <3 g/kg). Some of the variability in skeletal muscle creatine concentrations can be attributed to heterogeneity in the proportions of wet skeletal muscle as myofibres, connective tissues, and fat. These observations raise serious concerns regarding the accuracy of the deuterated-creatine dilution method for estimating total body skeletal muscle mass as now defined by cadaver analyses of whole wet tissues and in vivo approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging. A new framework is needed in thinking about how this potentially valuable method for measuring the creatine pool size in vivo can be used in the future to study skeletal muscle biology in health and disease.

body composition↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Simulation of Light to Heat Conversion by Plasmonic Nanoheaters

Plasmonic nanoparticles are widely recognized as photothermal conversion agents, i.e., nanotransducers or nanoheaters. Translation of these materials into practical applications requires quantitative analyses of their photothermal conversion efficiencies (η). However, the value of η obtained for different materials is dramatically influenced by the experimental setup and method of calculation. Here, we evaluate the most common methods for estimating η (Roper’s and Wang’s) and compare these with numerical estimates using the simulation software ANSYS. Experiments were performed with colloidal gold nanorod solutions suspended in a hanging droplet irradiated by an 808 nm diode laser and monitored by a thermal camera. The ANSYS simulations accounted for both heating and evaporation, providing η values consistent with the Wang method but higher than the Roper approach. This study details methods for estimating the photothermal efficiency and finds ANSYS to be a robust tool where experimental constraints complicate traditional methods.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed Estimation of the Covariance Matrix for Various Neutron Spectra

A method for estimating covariance matrices which capture the uncertainties in calculated reactor spectra has been developed. This method is based on perturbing the parameters of a physics-based analytic model fitted to a calculated spectrum. The covariance of the perturbed analytic spectra imposes energy-dependent correlations due to the physics of the neutron processes in the reactor, i.e., a fission component, a 1/E down-scatting component, and a thermal Maxwellian component. An analytic model is developed which is shown to produce good fits to several reactor environments. The covariance matrices produced via this method are then used as the prior spectrum in STAYSL least squares spectrum adjustment where it is combined with integral metrics, such as activation measurements, to produce a high-fidelity neutron spectrum characterization. It was concluded that the methodology showed agreeable results for the ACRR free-field spectrum adjustment in STAYSL resulting in a 𝜒 2 value of 2.21 (per degree of freedom), but further work is needed to describe scattering and interface regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry and Steepest Descent Inversion to Measure Complex Impedance

In this paper, we present a method for estimating complex impedances using reflectometry and a modified steepest descent inversion algorithm. We simulate spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR), which can measure complex impedances on energized systems for an experimental setup with resistive and capacitive loads. A parametric function, which includes both a misfit function and stabilizer function, is created. The misfit function is a least squares estimate of how close the model data matches observed data. The stabilizer function prevents the steepest descent algorithm from becoming unstable and diverging. Steepest descent iteratively identifies the model parameters that minimize the parametric function. We validate the algorithm by correctly identifying the model parameters (capacitance and resistance) associated with simulated SSTDR data, with added 3 dB white Gaussian noise. With the stabilizer function, the steepest descent algorithm estimates of the model parameters are bounded within a specified range. Furthermore, the errors for capacitance (220pF to 820pF) and resistance (50 Ω to 270 Ω) are < 10%, corresponding to a complex impedance magnitude |R +1/jωC| of 53 Ω to 510 Ω.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving the LandScan USA Non-Obligate Population Estimate (NOPE)

Where do people go when they have nowhere to be? Nonobligate activities are a significant part of our social and cultural lives, but there are no existing large scale data which characterize spatial variability in population allocation for these activities. As large scale population estimates have ever-finer resolutions, gaps in our ability to estimate this population segment have an increasingly large impact on high resolution population estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved method for estimating the spatial allocation of the non-obligate population - people who are not at work, school, or in another residential institution. This method builds upon on anonymized and aggregate data on visits to public places, allocating the non-obligate population proportionally to worker population while accounting for the estimated ratio of visitors to workers in public places.

Brelsford, Christa↗

DOE OSTI2020

Physics-Informed Deep Neural Networks for Learning Parameters and Constitutive Relationships in Subsurface Flow Problems

In this paper, we present a physics informed deep neural network (DNN) method for estimating parameters and unknown physics (constitutive relationships) in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We use PDEs in addition to measurements to train DNNs to approximate unknown parameters and constitutive relationships as well as states. The proposed approach increases the accuracy of DNN approximations of partially known functions when a limited number of measurements is available and allows for training DNNs when no direct measurements of the functions of interest are available. We employ physics informed DNNs to estimate the unknown space-dependent diffusion coefficient in a linear diffusion equation and an unknown constitutive relationship in a non-linear diffusion equation. For the parameter estimation problem, we assume that partial measurements of the coefficient and states are available and demonstrate that under these conditions, the proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art methods. For the non-linear diffusion PDE model with a fully unknown constitutive relationship (i.e., no measurements of constitutive relationship are available), the physics informed DNN method can accurately estimate the non-linear constitutive relationship based on state measurements only. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method remains accurate in the presence of measurement noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solving inverse problems in stochastic models using deep neural networks and adversarial training

Inverse problems associated with stochastic models constitute a significant portion of scientific and engineering applications. In such cases the unknown quantities are distributions. The applicability of traditional methods is limited because of their demanding assumptions or prohibitive computational consumption; for example, maximum likelihood methods require closed-form density functions, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo needs a large number of simulations. We propose a new method that estimates the unknown distribution by matching the statistical properties between observed and simulated random processes. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the unknown distribution and use a discriminative neural network for computing the statistical discrepancies between the observed and simulated random processes. Here we demonstrated numerically that the proposed methods can estimate both the model parameters and learn complicated unknown distributions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Trigonometric Parallaxes of Two T Dwarfs With Keck and ShaneAO Astrometry

We present trigonometric parallax and proper motion measurements for two T-type brown dwarfs. We derive our measurements from infrared laser guide star adaptive optics observations spanning five years from the ShaneAO/SHARCS and NIRC2/medium-cam instruments on the Shane and Keck telescopes, respectively. To improve our astrometric precision, we measure and apply a distortion correction to our fields for both instruments. We also transform the Keck and ShaneAO astrometric reference frames onto the ICRS using five-parameter parallax and proper motion solutions for background reference stars from Gaia DR2. Fitting for parallax and proper motion, we measure parallaxes of 73.5 ± 9.2 mas and 70.1 ± 6.7 mas for WISEJ19010703+47181688 (WISE1901) and WISEJ21543294+59421370 (WISE2154), respectively. We utilize Monte Carlo methods to estimate the error in our sparse field methods, taking into account overfitting and differential atmospheric refraction. Comparing to previous measurements in the literature, all of our parallax and proper motion values fall within 2σ of the published measurements, and 4 of 6 measurements are within 1σ. These data are among the first parallax measurements of these T dwarfs and serve as precise measurements for calibrating stellar formation models. These two objects are the first results of an ongoing survey of T dwarfs with Keck/NIRC2 and the Shane Adaptive Optics system at Lick Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Clumping Index Estimation With 30°-tilted Cameras in Row Crops: Evaluation of Methods and Segment Size Effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seismic strain energy partitioning: estimating the strain energy of seismic body waves.

This report details a method to estimate the energy content of various types of seismic body waves. The method is based on the strain energy of an elastic wavefield and Hooke’s Law. We present a detailed derivation of a set of equations that explicitly partition the seismic strain energy into two parts: one for compressional (P) waves and one for shear (S) waves. We posit that the ratio of these two quantities can be used to determine the relative contribution of seismic P and S waves, possibly as a method to discriminate between earthquakes and buried explosions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method by using it to compute the strain energy of synthetic seismograms with differing source characteristics. Specifically, we find that explosion-generated seismograms contain a preponderance of P wave strain energy when compared to earthquake-generated synthetic seismograms. Conversely, earthquake-generated synthetic seismograms contain a much greater degree of S wave strain energy when compared to explosion-generated seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methods for the robust computation of the long-period seismic spectrum of broad-band arrays

SUMMARY We describe array methods to search for low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) signals in long-period seismic data using Fourier analysis. This is motivated by published results that find evidence of solar free oscillations in the Earth's seismic hum. Previous work used data from only one station. In this paper, we describe methods for computing spectra from array data. Arrays reduce noise level through averaging and provide redundancy that we use to distinguish coherent signal from a random background. We describe two algorithms for calculating a robust spectrum from seismic arrays, an algorithm that automatically removes impulsive transient signals from data, a jackknife method for estimating the variance of the spectrum, and a method for assessing the significance of an entire spectral band. We show examples of their application to data recorded by the Homestake Mine 3-D array in Lead, SD and the Piñon Flats PY array. These are two of the quietest small aperture arrays ever deployed in North America. The underground Homestake data has exceptionally low noise, and the borehole sensors of the PY array also have very low noise, making these arrays well suited to finding very weak signals. We find that our methods remove transient signals effectively from the data so that even low-SNR signals in the seismic background can be found and tested. Additionally, we find that the jackknife variance estimate is comparable to the noise floor, and we present initial evidence for solar g-modes in our data through the T2 test, a multivariate generalization of Student's t-test.

Caton, Ross C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning methods for obtaining photometric redshift estimations from images

ABSTRACT Knowing the redshift of galaxies is one of the first requirements of many cosmological experiments, and as it is impossible to perform spectroscopy for every galaxy being observed, photometric redshift (photo-z) estimations are still of particular interest. Here, we investigate different deep learning methods for obtaining photo-z estimates directly from images, comparing these with ‘traditional’ machine learning algorithms which make use of magnitudes retrieved through photometry. As well as testing a convolutional neural network (CNN) and inception-module CNN, we introduce a novel mixed-input model that allows for both images and magnitude data to be used in the same model as a way of further improving the estimated redshifts. We also perform benchmarking as a way of demonstrating the performance and scalability of the different algorithms. The data used in the study comes entirely from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) from which 1 million galaxies were used, each having 5-filtre (ugriz) images with complete photometry and a spectroscopic redshift which was taken as the ground truth. The mixed-input inception CNN achieved a mean squared error (MSE) =0.009, which was a significant improvement ($30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) over the traditional random forest (RF), and the model performed even better at lower redshifts achieving a MSE = 0.0007 (a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement over the RF) in the range of z < 0.3. This method could be hugely beneficial to upcoming surveys, such as Euclid and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will require vast numbers of photo-z estimates produced as quickly and accurately as possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Drift‐Kinetic Method for Obtaining Gradients in Plasma Properties From Single‐Point Distribution Function Data

Abstract In this paper, we derive a new drift‐kinetic method for estimating gradients in the plasma properties through a velocity space distribution at a single point. The gradients are intrinsically related to agyrotropic features of the distribution function. This method predicts the gradients in the magnetized distribution function and can predict gradients of arbitrary moments of the gyrotropic background distribution function. The method allows for estimates on density and pressure gradients on the scale of a Larmor radius, proving to resolve smaller scales than any method currently available to spacecraft. The model is verified with a set of fully kinetic VPIC particle‐in‐cell simulations.

Wetherton, B. A.↗